US Economy: ISM Services Climb, JOLTS Openings Decline

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Transcript

00:00Where's your I go to first, Mike?

00:02Well, it goes to the Services Index ISM first because it's much better than expected at 54.4.

00:07That's because it's the first number on the screen.

00:09Well, that too. Well, we knew that that was good anyway.

00:1252.6 was the prior number in November.

00:15But the underlying numbers are good as well.

00:18The production number is up to 56 from 54.5.

00:25New orders up to 57.9 from 52.9.

00:28That's a big jump.

00:29Employment comes in higher and expanding 52 even from 48.9.

00:35So no contraction there.

00:36And that's going to have some people adjusting their thoughts on what we're going to get.

00:40Anything over 50 is an expansion, right?

00:42Roughly, yeah.

00:43Essentially, that's the case.

00:45New export orders even up 54.2.

00:48Imports still positive 50.3.

00:51So the trade war not overall hurting the services economy.

00:55Let's take a look at jolts.

00:56It is 7,146,000.

00:58Job openings, which is significantly down from the 7,449,000 in October.

01:05Remember, these are two months delayed.

01:07But people look at the quits level.

01:08The quits level went up to 2% from 1.9.

01:11People feeling a little bit better about being able to get another job.

01:15Or at least they did in November.

01:17The layoffs level, layoffs rate, 1.1% is down from 1.2%.

01:24So both of those, the ISM employment and jolts numbers suggest that the labor market's in a little bit better shape than we had anticipated.

01:33Factory orders down 1.3%.

01:36Durable goods orders down 2.2%, same as they were last time.

01:39So the drop in factory orders basically is going to be in the non-durables category.

01:45Capital goods orders, non-defense, ex-air, which is the part that goes into GDP, up 0.5%.

01:51That's what it was in the preliminary.

01:53So not a lot of news in the factory orders numbers.

01:56And those are for October.

01:58But we are getting some strength in employment in these indicators.

02:02And, of course, it all sets us up for Friday.