- 2 days ago
This segment of News Today analyses the foreign policy of US President Donald Trump, focusing on geopolitical developments concerning Venezuela and Greenland.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00The United States is dramatically reshaping geopolitical fault lines,
00:04first with the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro
00:07in what the world is now calling an illegitimate military operation,
00:11and now with Trump setting his eyes on Greenland,
00:15an autonomous Danish territory long seen as off-limits.
00:19Both these moves have sent shockwaves across the world,
00:22promoting fierce diplomatic pushback
00:25and has raised urgent questions about Trump's ambitions and the future of geopolitics.
00:38Days after the U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Celia Flores,
00:45President Donald Trump has outlined his plan for the Latin American country.
00:50In a social media post, Trump declared that the interim government of Venezuela
00:54will be turning over 30 to 50 million barrels of high-quality sanctioned oil to the U.S.
01:00This, he claimed, will be sold at market price.
01:04The money will be controlled by him,
01:05and it will be used to benefit the people of the U.S. and Venezuela.
01:10Trump is still basking in the success of the military operation.
01:13Addressing House Republicans at the Kennedy Center,
01:16he recounted how American forces carried out the mission.
01:19It was so complex, 152 aeroplanes, many, many,
01:25talk about boots on the ground, we had a lot of boots on the ground.
01:29But it was amazing, and think of it, nobody was killed,
01:32and on the other side, a lot of people were killed.
01:34Unfortunately, I say that, soldiers.
01:36Cubans, mostly Cubans, but many, many killed.
01:39And they knew we were coming, and they were protected, and our guys weren't.
01:44You know, our guys are jumping out of helicopters, and they're not protected,
01:48and they were.
01:49But it was so brilliant.
01:51The electricity for almost the entire country was, boom, turned off.
01:57That's when they knew there was a problem.
01:59There was no electricity.
02:02Trump is not done yet.
02:03The U.S. president has now set his eyes on Greenland.
02:06We need Greenland from a national security situation.
02:14It's so strategic.
02:15Right now, Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place.
02:21We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security.
02:25And Denmark is not going to be able to do it, I can tell you.
02:28U.S. media reports claim Trump has already told his team to prepare a plan to take Greenland,
02:35an autonomous territory, under Denmark's control.
02:38According to media reports, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told Republican lawmakers Trump plans to buy Greenland.
02:46Another Trump aide deputy chief of staff, Stephen Miller, in an interview claimed,
02:51nobody is going to fight the U.S. militarily over the future of Greenland.
02:55Denmark's Prime Minister, Mehta Fedriksson, has reacted strongly to Trump's administration's plan to take over Greenland,
03:03saying that a military action will mark the end of NATO.
03:10Firstly, I believe that the American president should be taken seriously when he says that he wants Greenland.
03:16But I also want to make it clear that if the United States chooses to attack another NATO country militarily,
03:22then everything stops.
03:23That is, including our NATO and thus, the security that has been provided since the end of the Second World War.
03:31Leaders from the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and Denmark issued a joint statement,
03:38insisting that Greenland belongs to its people, and only Denmark and Greenland can decide its future.
03:43Meanwhile, India has raised concerns over developments in Venezuela and urged nations to prioritise people's interests.
03:53Yes, we are concerned about the developments, but we would really urge all the parties involved to now sit down
04:01and come to a position which is in the interests of the well-being and the safety of the people of Venezuela.
04:11Because at the end of the day, that is our concern.
04:15Trump's project to control the Western Hemisphere is being called the Donro Doctrine,
04:20a name inspired by the Monroe Doctrine of 1823 that aimed at stopping European colonial powers.
04:26This time, the objective, according to Trump supporters, is to check Chinese influence in America's backyard.
04:33With Geeta Mohan, Bureau Report, India Today.
04:35All right, let's quickly dip into more news break coming in.
04:46It seems President Donald Trump has just posted on Social Media X.
04:51Day after European leaders criticised Trump over Greenland, Trump has lashed out at NATO allies.
04:56This is a post on the Social Media X where President Trump says Russia and China have zero fear of NATO without the United States.
05:05Doubt NATO would be there for us if we really need them.
05:09A long post also says that he ended eight wars and NATO members foolishly chose not to give me a Nobel Peace Prize.
05:18Well, that's a social media post coming in where President Donald Trump is concerned.
05:25We're going to get more on that.
05:27But the big questions that we are posing this evening, the Donro Doctrine now turning the world order upside down,
05:33where spheres of influence are concerned.
05:35America playing global super cop or a backyard bully.
05:39China has called America a bully.
05:41You have just a short while ago Russia saying that the Americans are resorting to be pirates where the high seas are concerned.
05:50Who is next on Trump's list?
05:52Greenland, what is Trump's message to China and what does the new order mean for India?
05:57Let's take all these questions to our panelists this evening.
06:00Ambassador Navtej Sarna, India former ambassador to the U.S.
06:04joins us, Aina Tanjan, Senior Fellow Center for International Governance, Innovation and Chairman of Asia Narratives' 15th Initiative.
06:12Edward Luce, Associate Editor at the FT, U.S.-based writer, columnist David Goldwyn, CEO,
06:20Goldwyn Global Strategies, Chair Atlantic Council, Energy Advisor Group,
06:25former State Department for International Affairs of Energy Policy Thought Leader.
06:29Let's quickly get the conversation started and let's begin with you, Mr. Goldwyn.
06:35What seemed like a dystopian fantasy is now seemingly being put together piece by piece where President Trump is concerned.
06:42What do you think is next?
06:45Well, I think the president is flexing worldwide his power.
06:50I think a lot of what's going on in Venezuela is really just about showing American force.
06:55A lot of what the president is saying about taking over the industry, about running Venezuela is really not happening.
07:01I would put Greenland in the same category.
07:04You know, a U.S. president does not have the power to appropriate new territories.
07:08That power under Article 4 of our Constitution belongs to the Congress.
07:12He's not going to get an appropriation to purchase Greenland.
07:15Greenland, we're not going to have an occupying force in Greenland to try and seize it.
07:19And none of what the president seeks there, whether that's we have a military base,
07:23whether that's the ability to police the Arctic or the ability to extract resources requires this.
07:29This is so I think, you know, bullying is, you know, bullying is a provocative term.
07:33But I think this is really about showing dominance, pure and simple, not just energy dominance.
07:38The president is flexing American power in order to be able to coerce policies and outcomes that he wants.
07:44So I think we're seeing some backlash among the MAGA movement to some of this.
07:49But right now, this is all really, I would say, primarily performative.
07:53We can talk a little bit about what's happening in Venezuela, if you like, in terms of the seizure of oil and things like that.
08:00But right now, you know, the president has deployed a great deal of military force and he has removed one individual from Venezuela.
08:09But just to focus on Venezuela for a second, we don't have regime change.
08:12We have the same people in place.
08:14Very little has changed other than the flexing of American muscle.
08:18And I think the president likes that.
08:20And I think we're likely to see more of it.
08:22All right.
08:23We're likely to see more of it.
08:24Edward Luce, would you want to weigh in on that?
08:26Are we looking at Greenland immediately next after invading Venezuela?
08:31What are we really looking at?
08:32Marco Rubio, in a classified briefing, had said that U.S. would want to buy Greenland.
08:38And the recent rhetoric does not quite signal an imminent invasion where Greenland is concerned.
08:44But you've had President Trump, who's saying that he's weighing all options, including the military option.
08:50Yeah, look, I'm not sure I buy the move along, nothing to see here line.
08:55And I know that's a slightly unfair characterization of Mr. Goldwyn's summary.
09:00But he didn't just remove one individual from Venezuela.
09:04He removed the head of state.
09:05He abducted the head of state.
09:07Mr. Luce, can I, can I, I'm sorry I'm interrupting you.
09:09And the reason I'm doing it is because your audio is very, very unclear.
09:12We're going to try and correct that and fix it and come right back to you.
09:15I want to bring in Ambassador Naptej Sarna, meanwhile.
09:18Ambassador Sarna, what do you make of the current developments?
09:20Because at one end, you'd have, you know, Marco Rubio suggest that this is not, that Greenland would be in all possibility bought over.
09:28You know, the current rhetoric of an invasion of Greenland is not true.
09:32But what's coming in from the President of the United States is very different.
09:36He's saying all options are on the table, including the military option.
09:38Well, I think, thank you, Preeti.
09:41I think there is a lot of daylight between all the statements that are coming in.
09:47And frankly, at the moment, I think you're asking me to predict the unpredictable.
09:53President Trump is on a high.
09:57He's on the riding on the basis of the Venezuelan success in which he didn't bother about the U.S. Congress.
10:03And of course, he doesn't bother about the U.N.
10:06And he's not going to bother about NATO.
10:08He's enjoying playing commander in chief.
10:12He knows there can be no military opposition if he wants to do it.
10:16And he'll handle all the problems later.
10:18They may not use it ultimately because, frankly, they don't need to use military force.
10:24They, you know, the Europeans, the Denmark, the people of Greenland would be, I'm sure, happy to have an adjustment where the security aspects can be taken care of.
10:38It's the U.S. which has gone removed its presence.
10:41During the Cold War, they had 10,000 people.
10:44Now they have 200 people.
10:46And they have one base.
10:47If they were to put other bases, they could do so.
10:49But I think a lot of this is President Trump playing out in practice the Don Roe Doctrine.
10:59He's showing he's the boss in the Western Hemisphere and he can do anything he wants.
11:04And, frankly, at the moment, he can do anything he wants.
11:08You know, Ambassador Navtej will also, you know, touch on, because right after he'd taken over, there was a lot of talks that he's a strong believer of spheres of influence.
11:19And that's practically playing out right now as we see it.
11:23You know, possibly the Western Hemisphere, where the Americas are concerned, it is for America to take.
11:29And we can see that happen, where it seems he's going to leave Russia, you know, to Putin and Asia to China, which is very worrisome for us back here in India.
11:37Well, certainly, if you go into a season of spheres of influence, it's not good, certainly for countries like India and for a lot of other countries.
11:50And spheres of influence are not always perfect.
11:53There can be disputes there.
11:55And, of course, it doesn't mean that the power play that the U.S. can do in the Western Hemisphere.
12:01I'm not sure that China can actually do it in what becomes its sphere of influence.
12:06There will be far stronger resistance.
12:09And, frankly, you know, Russia is already trying to do it in Ukraine.
12:15And the ones that are really going to suffer at the moment are the Ukrainians and the Europeans, because they don't seem to fall into anybody's sphere of influence, and they will have to resist it.
12:26So spheres of influence is not the way a modern world can go.
12:31We have removed the guardrails.
12:33We have removed the system that existed, that kept peace, relative global peace, for 75 years.
12:41And today you are, whether we like it or not, we are moving into a conflict zone.
12:48Let us hope and pray that this doesn't go into global conflict.
12:52But what we are seeing today is very disturbing.
12:56Well, and it's far from what usually, you know, would happen in the modern world, Ambassador Navtej, to subjugate your neighbor, to steal its resources.
13:04It's actually playing out.
13:05Like I said, the dystopian fantasy now being pieced together.
13:08If we have Edward Luce back with us, can we, okay, we do have him.
13:11All right, we're trying to correct that.
13:13But, you know, taking on the conversation where China's reaction is concerned, Anna Tangent, would you want to weigh in on that?
13:21Yeah, there's two different parts to the reaction of China.
13:25Obviously, they're concerned about what the United States is doing.
13:29And I would say that it's being roundly condemned and in no uncertain language.
13:34I'm surprised that my colleagues right now refuse to do it.
13:40They can kind of talk about it as if it's a chess game.
13:43But we are, in fact, facing a real crisis.
13:46If the global order breaks down according to the way that Trump does it, it's every country for themselves.
13:53The powerful will take and the weak will be taken from.
13:57This is the return of the colonial system.
13:59So, in the short term, China's concerned.
14:01They put in over $65 billion in investments into Venezuela, some for oil, some for infrastructure projects, etc.
14:13So, obviously, and they get about 4%, between 2% and 4% of their imported oil from Venezuela.
14:21So, they can stand this.
14:24It's an issue.
14:25The question is, what is the U.S. going to do after they've extorted the $2 billion in oil that they say that Venezuela has to give them?
14:37It's unknown.
14:38But then there's this other part.
14:40And that is the long term.
14:41Right now, every country in the world, whether they're paying lip service to the United States because they're fearful that they will be targeted next, is in the back rooms definitely looking to see how they can de-risk from the United States.
14:57The U.S. is no longer a reliable partner.
14:59It has shown itself to be the very authoritarian hegemon that they said everyone should be afraid of.
15:07They've accused Russia of this, accused China of it, accused everybody of it, but they do it themselves.
15:13So, at this point, China is looking to weigh its options.
15:17They're not going to get into a kinetic fight.
15:21There is no way that they can sail their navy to South America and start a war, nor do they want to.
15:28It wouldn't solve anything.
15:29The long term issue is, will the countries of the rest of the world, like at the climate change conference, suddenly at COP30, suddenly realize that if they want a better world, they're going to have to make it themselves.
15:44They can't rely on the former European colonial powers or the American hegemon to do it for them.
15:51And if they come together and they go to the United States, you know, it'll be a taco moment.
15:58Donald Trump can fight one or two nations, but he cannot fight all of them.
16:02It's unfortunate that, so far, we haven't had the kind of unity that would be necessary to force him to do his taco move.
16:10Trump always chickens out.
16:11Okay, but we haven't even kind of seen the kind of condemnation and criticism that one would have expected coming in from all other countries, including China, other than calling him a bully.
16:23China hasn't really, you know, made a statement which is strong enough.
16:27But, you know, cutting across to Mr. Goldwyn.
16:30Mr. Goldwyn, circling back to Greenland and with what the kind of commentary we've seen of late, it started off where Venezuela was concerned to take out a dictator.
16:41It wasn't about taking out a dictator.
16:42It was about oil.
16:44Where Greenland is concerned, you know, the talk is about a strategic move.
16:48It would be good for America.
16:49But it's really not a strategic move as much as it is about minerals.
16:55Well, let me say a couple things.
16:57First, you have to appreciate the domestic politics that are going on here.
17:00The U.S. economy is performing poorly.
17:03The president's polls were below 30 percent, probably the worst of either of his presidencies.
17:07He was admired in this Epstein scandal where there were accusations that he was really, you know, involved in potentially criminal activity.
17:16And this is what, you know, Americans kind of call wag the dog.
17:18And this is we have managed to take all of those issues off the headlines and the president is distracting it with foreign adventurism.
17:25This is not the first president to do this.
17:27But in terms of domestic politics, that's what's that's what's really going on here.
17:31Second, I think, as Einar said, and I think Edward Luce before he came off was asserting, I mean, this is being significantly condemned, you know, in the United States.
17:38This is not popular in the United States.
17:40And that's because this is terrible for U.S. interests.
17:42I mean, anything that we have wanted to do around the world, whether that is, you know, containing Iranian adventurism or others, have required allies and coalitions for the enforcement of sanctions and for the prosecution of issues, not to mention climate change or transnational crime or anything else.
17:57The U.S. is ceding its power.
17:59The balance of power has, you know, the way it always works.
18:02These countries will align against the United States now to contain us, you know, if we if it engages in this kind of adventurism.
18:08And so I think that's that's been been really quite, you know, quite, quite, quite negative.
18:14And I think a lot of what the president is doing so far by picking on weaker allies or not weaker allies, by picking on weaker countries, is he is able to act tough without taking on real action.
18:25You know, in terms of spheres of influence, this is about U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere.
18:30And Cuba is probably next on his list.
18:32And if I was Nicaragua, I would worry also.
18:34But that does not mean that the president is ceding spheres of influence to Russia or to China.
18:39It does not mean that the president has, you know, is going to give China license on Taiwan, where the semiconductor industry remains very important to U.S. national security interests.
18:48And he's all over the place on Russia, clearly not afraid to provoke them by seizing their tanker this morning.
18:54But he's really trying to pressure both sides into, you know, into an unwelcome ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine context.
19:02So I would not be I would not believe that because the United States is asserting dominance in its own hemisphere, that it is ceding influence or dominance in other hemispheres.
19:11This is, you know, the Don Roe doctrine is really about, you know, Donald Trump asserting influence where he chooses to assert influence.
19:19But his ability to affect real change bears scrutiny.
19:23And I think we need to get past the headlines for some realism here, which is, you know, is Donald Trump really running Venezuela?
19:30No, we're influencing the sale of some sales of oil on tankers in a way that, frankly, helps the regime avoid shutting in production.
19:39Is he really going to take over Greenland?
19:41No, he's not.
19:42He's not going to buy it.
19:43He's not going to occupy it.
19:45And we don't really need it in the first place.
19:47So I think, you know, the media tends to latch on to a lot of this bluster and see the president sort of, in a sense, more efficaciousness than he may deserve.
19:57So this is about dominating the news.
19:59It's about dominating the lines.
20:01It's about distracting the American public from what's going on inside the country.
20:05And so I think you have to take each of these actions and look very carefully about, you know, can it be accomplished, what is being accomplished, and will it last?
20:14Because he's moved on to Greenland because it turns out Venezuela is a lot more complicated than it seems.
20:20So he's not going to be running Venezuela.
20:21So look over here.
20:22Now we're talking about Greenland purely as a distraction.
20:25Ambassador Naftir Sarnav, do you concur with Mr. Goldwyn?
20:29Because a lot of bluster at times of President Trump he's actually acted on.
20:35Yes, I'm afraid I would nuance that a bit.
20:39I mean, with all due respect to Mr. Goldwyn, he has a very good, made a very good point.
20:45But I think I'm less convinced that Mr. Donald Trump is only doing this for the news headlines.
20:54Yes, he needs distractions.
20:56And going into Greenland would be a great feather in his MAGA cap because the success of Venezuela has gone down very well with the MAGA crowd.
21:06And Greenland, if he goes in without an American soldier being killed, which he can, would be great.
21:11At the same time, the Epstein files is a pressure point.
21:15The upcoming midterms are a pressure point.
21:17The following polls are a pressure point.
21:21I absolutely agree.
21:22But I think at the moment he is trying to demonstrate stuff.
21:29And it could be Greenland or it could be Cuba.
21:31It could be Colombia.
21:34You know, he's asked the president of Colombia, excuse the language, but it's Mr. Trump's language to watch his ass.
21:40Yes. So you don't know where it's going to go.
21:44And he says Mexico.
21:46I mean, if and that's all Western Hemisphere.
21:50And if he's using the use of force, he is at least in the midterms, certainly not going to care about the U.S. Congress.
21:59So I would be cheery of giving him, you know, such a benefit of doubt.
22:05I think the world has to prepare for a time where international law, the idea of state sovereignty, the idea of the United Nations or the United Nations Security Council stepping in to keep peace, international peace, is over.
22:22Over. We can bring it back.
22:25As one of the interlocutors said, we can bring it back if everybody agrees that we can do a world minus one, leave out the United States and strengthen the international organizations again.
22:39But for that, we all have to agree.
22:41And that's going to be extremely difficult.
22:43So at the moment, I absolutely agree that it's more or less every country on its own.
22:51And the Europeans are trying to gather together.
22:53But if push comes to shove, I don't know what Europe will do if President Trump really flexes his muscle over Greenland.
23:03And Mr. Tanjim, this could also augur the potential collapse of NATO.
23:07And, you know, but for China, that would, I would reckon, be beneficial.
23:11It would be beneficial in the sense that NATO was an entity that lost its relevance and then started searching for it, you know, when the Soviet Union collapsed, in theory, so should have NATO.
23:29Because it didn't, it continued to expand.
23:33And that's why we have the situation in Ukraine.
23:36Their expansion concerned the security interests of Russia.
23:43Whether they're right or wrong, this is the way they feel.
23:45And NATO knew it.
23:47So continuing in along that line was bound to result in exactly what happened, a kinetic conflict which has cost tens of thousands of lives and tens of billions of dollars of damages.
23:58So, yes, it would be nice if it went away.
24:02But the fact is, there's still going to be some sort of European pact.
24:06Whether the United States is in it or not, Europe feels independently.
24:10The question is, will these countries ever come together?
24:14Now, I think it is more worrisome.
24:16I agree with my colleague, Mr. Goldman, that this is a situation where Donald Trump is using these things to distract attention.
24:23And I think he will continue to do them as long as it's successful.
24:28He has great fear of the Epstein files, the fact that millions of pages of new documents are suddenly showing up.
24:34And he's not even able to know exactly how many times his name is mentioned or how many pictures of him are in there or if there are videotapes.
24:42So he's concerned.
24:43And also about the MAGA is not supporting this Venezuelan thing.
24:50You've already had Marjorie Taylor Greene and others come out very publicly and say that this was not what Donald Trump promised.
24:57So this idea that MAGA is somewhere behind Trump is nonsense.
25:01Right now, it is tearing itself apart.
25:04You have the protesters, not protesters, the mob that attacked on January 6th, attacked the building, attacked the Capitol building.
25:14They're now marching around, reenacting it and demanding they get hundreds of millions of dollars in compensation because they were exonerated and therefore deserve more money.
25:24MAGA is tearing itself apart because it was always a coalition of hate.
25:29It's easy to get people to say there's something wrong here.
25:32Do you agree with me?
25:33Yes.
25:33But why it's wrong and what they want to do is some other thing.
25:38But it's also a coalition which worked on the theory of make America great again.
25:42And, you know, Trump's foreign policy somewhere down the line harks back to, you know, the times of American imperialism.
25:49Ambassador Sarna, you don't quite agree with that, do you?
25:52You were shaking your head.
25:54Because I think, you know, MAGA is ultimately a Trump cult.
25:58And as long as Trump is successful, they may have differences, etc.
26:03They will, when it comes to the crunch, they will still back him as long as he's successful.
26:09I mean, after all, he ran on the plank of no forever wars, no intervention.
26:14I mean, what happened to that?
26:16But they're still they're still backing him.
26:19And that is his base as he goes into the midterms.
26:22So unless that begins to break.
26:25And I don't think the protests are a sign of MAGA actually breaking.
26:30That will break only if Trump comes up to be seen as unsuccessful.
26:35So far, he is successful at his level in his own way.
26:40He is not successful as as a world leader.
26:45He is not successful as a visionary or as a statesman.
26:48He is successful, frankly, to use the word you started with, as a bully.
26:57Mr. Gordner, would you want to, you know, would you want to come in on that?
27:00Because with President Trump now, with all the issues that he might have,
27:06he's also found maybe a rallying point where MAGA is concerned.
27:09You know, contrary to what maybe Mr. Tangent said,
27:11that MAGA is not very happy with what's going on right now.
27:13Well, I think the I think it's true.
27:18I think, as Mr. Tangent has said, that MAGA is a bit of a cult.
27:21And so they seem to be supportive of the president, largely, no matter what he does.
27:25But that's they're happy with the looking tough.
27:28They're happy with the win.
27:29But the president won not just because of MAGA support, which is, you know, maybe 28,
27:35maybe 30 percent of the voting electorate.
27:38He won because a lot of people in the middle were dissatisfied with the Democratic candidates
27:42and because they thought he would be a better manager of the economy.
27:45But in a couple of weeks, health care subsidies, which are supporting health care
27:50and a lot of the Democratic, not Democratic, a lot of the, you know, the base for the red base
27:55for President Trump are going to disappear.
27:58His performance on the economy.
28:00So his policy is not working for a lot of the people in his base,
28:04which is why you're seeing a lot of Republican resignations in the House,
28:08why you see his poll numbers so low.
28:10So the fact that there is a core of ideological supporters is true.
28:14But that will be not sufficient to carry him, his party, through the midterms or into the next term.
28:20And there is some dissension, I think, in the ranks, maybe not the pure MAGA base,
28:24but a lot of people wondering why he's spending all of this money and all of this attention
28:28on other countries rather than on our own country.
28:32And just to take Greenland as an example, you know, they may not have thought this through.
28:35But when you're a U.S. territory, the way Guam is or other places, you know, you get Social Security
28:40and Medicare and Medicaid benefits.
28:42You have free immigration into the United States.
28:45So I don't know how the MAGA base is going to feel about the U.S. both spending taxpayer money
28:50to buy Greenland if that ever happened.
28:53I mean, how many billions of an appropriation, if he could even get it through the Congress,
28:57you know, that would cost.
28:58But why they're spending money on that rather than on health care.
29:01And the idea that you're going to be giving them Social Security benefits and health care
29:06benefits to people in Greenland, you know, when you're not having adequate care for people
29:11in the United States.
29:12So like everything else with Trump, the headline looks really tough.
29:16And when it comes to the implementation and the follow through, this is going to be extremely
29:20unpopular, if not, you know, politically impossible, because there's no way you're going to get
29:25an appropriation through this Congress, even with a Republican majority, you know, to spend
29:30billions of dollars to pay Denmark for Greenland.
29:33So again, this is, you know, I think the base is eroding, his popularity is eroding,
29:37and this is a distraction.
29:39But I think as both Einar and the ambassador said, it's incredibly destructive, and it will
29:43have long-term damaging results for the United States, for our leadership, for our political
29:48ability to form...
29:50I would reckon for the world right now, but all right, you know, Mr. Goldman, I'm just
29:53taking final comments there.
29:54And Mr. Tangent, would you want to come in?
29:56Because we've taken a view on the domestic politics.
29:59But if you look at internationally, we haven't...
30:01You know, it's...
30:02The actions of Donald Trump have gone down rather tamely.
30:04We haven't seen that kind of condemnation coming in, you know, unity where...of criticism.
30:12Yeah, I mean, it's because no one wants to be the target of his ire.
30:16Everyone is giving him airplanes and golden baubles and everything like that, paying him whatever,
30:22enriching his children, simply to avoid the confrontation.
30:26But we, you know, this is only one year, less than one year of Donald Trump.
30:30You know, we're living in dog years.
30:31Every day he's there, we age seven days.
30:35And how long can they continue to appease a bully?
30:38Not sure.
30:40But at some point, I think there has to be a rallying point where countries come together
30:44and say, enough is enough.
30:46We need to act as one that would not put together an organization.
30:50We're not going to put together a new UN.
30:52It's doubtful.
30:53And I agree with the ambassador that you'd be able to force the US out.
30:57But if they come together and simply say, on a trade basis, you can, you know, tax your
31:02people and tariff your people as much as you want.
31:04But it's going to be uniform.
31:05And you're not going to pit us against each other.
31:08And you're not allowed to go into other countries and take their things because you think you need
31:13them.
31:13Ambassador, you know, Sarnabar, we're talking about spheres of influences and if it is the
31:20Western Hemisphere that America has, where Asia is concerned.
31:23You know, we are talking about President Trump being a bully, subjugating your neighbors,
31:27stealing their minerals.
31:28And nobody's really saying anything.
31:30He's been allowed to do so with very less criticism.
31:33We should be worried.
31:34We have a bully across our border where China is concerned.
31:38Well, I think that situation exists no matter what Mr. Trump does.
31:42What has happened is that, you know, the indications so far are that the strategic convergence that
31:51India and the United States had over their approach to China, which was a source of, frankly,
31:57a source of great comfort for us, is no longer reliable.
32:01And, you know, if Mr. Trump either, say, does a sort of big G2 deal with China in different
32:10things, or if he says, I don't care what China does in their sphere, then we are absolutely
32:16without that strategic convergence.
32:18Then everything that we've discussed in the last 20 years, or at least certainly the last
32:2310 years about the Indo-Pacific.
32:24Do you think that's possible, you know, at the cost of coming in, Ambassador Sarna, do
32:28you think that's possible, that there is an understanding that Russia can go into Ukraine,
32:33allow me to do what I'm doing, and China can continue its dominance in Asia?
32:37We all have our spheres of influence.
32:40That would be the theory of spheres of influence.
32:43But I think it's a theory.
32:45There are a lot of other countries who would resist that.
32:50Now, particularly in Asia, you have Japan, you have Korea, you have India, you have the
32:55entire ASEAN.
32:56I mean, they're not just going to all roll over.
33:00Russia's sphere of influence, as Russia would like to influence all of Europe.
33:05I mean, Germany is rearming.
33:07Poland has increased its defense allocation to 4.7% of GDP.
33:13B, a number of East European countries are now rearming, and they want to increase their
33:20product, defense production.
33:21So these countries are not going to roll over.
33:24And I don't think all the countries of Latin America, I mean, you have countries like Brazil,
33:30et cetera, who are also not going to be taking this quietly.
33:33They have come out very strongly.
33:35So it's a good theory, you know, in theory, but it won't work in practice.
33:40What will work in practice in such a multi-plural, let us say a plural world, I can't even call
33:48it a multipolar world.
33:49In a plural world will be the kind of system that we had in place.
33:54A certain set of rules, certain rules for the road, certain respect for treaties, respect
33:59for international law.
34:00I know this is sounding extremely old-fashioned in today's atmosphere, but it needs to be
34:07said, because if we stop saying it, it will stop existing.
34:12All right, Ambassador Sarna.
34:14Mr. Goldman, just a final word there.
34:16The look ahead.
34:17Do you think it's going to be all rhetoric, or do you see there's going to be intent where
34:20there's talk of Greenland?
34:22You know, you started off that it's more bluster.
34:25But what do you see happening in the next couple of weeks?
34:28Donald Trump is a transactional president, and so he's looking for a deal and for a
34:34quick win, and then he moves on to the next subject.
34:36We went from all of the trade deals, which were really deals on paper, but he's got to
34:40deal with Europe.
34:41He's got to deal with a bunch of countries.
34:43Has anything actually changed?
34:44Have investment really shifted?
34:46No, not really.
34:47And I think that's what we're looking at in Venezuela.
34:49That's what we're looking at with Greenland.
34:50I think we're looking for the president pushing as hard as he can, seeing what he can get away
34:55with, accepting a transaction or a deal that makes it look like he's won something, and
35:00then on to the next thing.
35:01So I don't think he's taking over Greenland.
35:03I don't think he's ceding Taiwan to China.
35:05I don't think he's going to cede Ukraine to Russia.
35:08All these would, in the end, be hugely politically unpopular and costly to him.
35:12But he's looking for quick wins.
35:14He's picking up a couple of them.
35:15And this is his MO.
35:16And I think we're going to see this for years to come.
35:19But I think, as both my colleagues have pointed out, this is all happening at extreme damage
35:23to world security, to the rule of law, to the U.S. ability to form coalitions in the
35:28future, which will take some generations to undo.
35:32But I think, whether you call it taco or you call it transactional, I think the president
35:38will push as far as he can, and he will take a quick win, even a performative symbolic win,
35:43and then move on to the next issue, which is why, you know, he's taken out Maduro, but
35:48the regime is still there.
35:50I think we're going to see more of the same.
35:52All right.
35:52So he's going to move on.
35:53But something that he hasn't quite moved on from is he's still hung up on not getting
35:58the Nobel.
35:58I'm just reading out his latest tweet, where he's actually calling NATO foolish for not
36:03giving him a Nobel because he ended eight wars.
36:05We're going to just leave it at that, because we don't quite know what tomorrow brings.
36:08But thank you, gentlemen, all three of you, for taking the time out and joining us
36:12this evening, we appreciate it.
36:14Thank you so much.
Be the first to comment