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Windsor-Tecumseh By-Election Poll

These poll results by Forum Research Inc. suggest the Ontario NDP could win in the Windsor-Tecumseh riding being vacated by Liberal MPP Dwight Duncan.

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4K views7 pages

Windsor-Tecumseh By-Election Poll

These poll results by Forum Research Inc. suggest the Ontario NDP could win in the Windsor-Tecumseh riding being vacated by Liberal MPP Dwight Duncan.

Uploaded by

windsorstar
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:

Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

NDP With Strong Lead in Windsor-Tecusmeh By-Election


Pupatello favoured when candidates are named
Toronto, February 8th, 2013 In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among 403 Ontarians 18 years of age and older who are eligible to vote in the soon-to-be-announced provincial by-election to replace the retiring Dwight Duncan in Windsor-Tecumseh, more than 4-in-10 will vote NDP (42%), compared to one third who will vote Liberal (32%) and about a fifth who will vote PC (19%). When voting preference is tested with the last election's candidates names, and Sandra Pupatello replacing Dwight Duncan, the Liberals garner more than 4-in-10 votes (44%), to 3-in-10 for the NDP's Andrew McAvoy (31%). The PC candidate, Robert de Verteuil, would take one fifth of the vote (18%) and the Green candidate would take 3%. "It is clear that the industrial heartland of Windsor is natural NDP territory, but with Dwight Duncan's imprimatur, Sandra Pupatello is the candidate who could keep it in the Liberal column," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at [email protected] or at (416) 960-9603

TORONTO February 8th, 2013 HIGHLIGHTS:


In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among 403 Ontarians 18 years of age and older who are eligible to vote in the soon-to-beannounced provincial byelection to replace the retiring Dwight Duncan in Windsor-Tecumseh, more than 4-in-10 will vote NDP (42%), compared to one third who will vote Liberal (32%) and about a fifth who will vote PC (19%). When voting preference is tested with the last election's candidates names, and Sandra Pupatello replacing Dwight Duncan, the Liberals garner more than 4-in-10 votes (44%), to 3-in-10 for the NDP's Andrew McAvoy (31%). The PC candidate, Robert de Verteuil, would take one fifth of the vote (18%) and the Green candidate would take 3%.

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

Methodology
The Forum Poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 403 randomly selected residents aged 18 or older in the provincial electoral district of Windsor-Tecumseh in Ontario, Canada. The poll was conducted on February 7th, 2013. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 5%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian-owned Forum Research is one of the countrys leading survey research firms. This Forum Poll and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at www.forumresearch.com/polls.asp

TORONTO February 8th, 2013

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

Awareness of Dwight Duncans Abdication Do you know your MPP, Dwight Duncan, has announced he is stepping down on February 14? [All Respondents] Age / Gender

TORONTO February 8th, 2013

%
Sample Yes No

Total 403 89 11

18-34 35 70 30

35-44 59 93 7

45-54 78 93 7

55-64 122 94 6

65+ 109 95 5

Male 197 87 13

Female 206 91 9

Income

%
Sample Yes No

Total 403 89 11

<20K 46 59 41

20-40K 73 92 8

40-60K 63 96 4

60-80K 57 89 11

80-100K 38 98 2

100K+ 59 97 3

Past Provincial Vote

%
Sample Yes No

Total 403 89 11

Cons 69 89 11

Lib 160 93 7

NDP 116 90 10

Green 8 89 11

Other Parties 16 73 27

Didn't Vote in the last provincial election 34 78 22

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

Windsor-Tecumseh By-Election Voting Preference The provincial government will call a by-election in Windsor-Tecumseh to fill the seat vacated by Dwight Duncan. Which party would you be most likely to vote for in the upcoming by-election in Windsor-Tecumseh?+ Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party would you be leaning towards at this time? [Decided/Leaning] Age / Gender

TORONTO February 8th, 2013

%
Sample Progressive Conservative Liberal NDP Green Other parties

Total 362 19 32 42 2 4

18-34 33 15 38 37 2 9

35-44 54 17 27 51 1 5

45-54 66 16 29 48 2 5

55-64 102 14 34 46 5 1

65+ 107 31 31 34 1 2

Male 176 25 30 39 2 4

Female 186 14 34 46 2 5

Income

%
Sample Progressive Conservative Liberal NDP Green Other parties

Total 362 19 32 42 2 4

<$20K 43 9 24 63 0 4

$20-40K 67 23 29 44 3 1

$40-60K 56 23 23 49 2 3

$60-80K 53 20 35 38 2 4

$80-100K 36 17 38 36 4 5

$100K+ 53 26 37 32 1 4

Past Provincial Vote

%
Sample Progressive Conservative Liberal NDP Green Other parties

Total 362 19 32 42 2 4

Cons 65 74 8 14 1 3

Lib 147 9 64 25 1 2

NDP 110 4 11 83 1 1

Green 7 0 58 0 42 0

Other Parties 14 14 0 60 0 26

Didn't Vote in the last provincial election 19 25 14 34 1 25

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

Windsor-Tecumseh By-Election Candidate Preference Which party are you most likely to vote for if the following candidates are running in this by-election? Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party would you be leaning towards at this time if the following candidates are running in this by-election? [Decided/Leaning] Age / Gender

TORONTO February 8th, 2013

%
Sample The Progressive Conservative Robert De Verteuil The Liberal Sandra Pupatello The New Democrat Andrew McAvoy The Green Justin Levesque Other parties

Total 356 18 44 31 3 3

1834 33 22 43 30 4 2

3544 53 16 37 39 5 4

4554 68 14 46 32 3 5

5564 102 11 48 35 4 3

65+ 100 26 45 25 1 3

Male 176 22 39 31 5 3

Female 180 15 49 31 2 3

Income

%
Sample The Progressive Conservative Robert De Verteuil The Liberal Sandra Pupatello The New Democrat Andrew McAvoy The Green Justin Levesque Other parties

Total 356 18 44 31 3 3

<$20K 42 8 29 51 4 7

$2040K 64 18 35 42 3 2

$4060K 53 17 42 34 3 3

$6080K 54 20 47 27 5 2

$80100K 35 16 49 26 4 5

$100K+ 54 23 60 12 4 1

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

Past Provincial Vote

%
Sample The Progressive Conservative Robert De Verteuil The Liberal Sandra Pupatello The New Democrat Andrew McAvoy The Green Justin Levesque Other parties

Total 356 18 44 31 3 3

Cons 63 68 18 9 5 0

Lib 147 5 77 16 0 1

NDP 106 2 19 73 3 2

Green 7 0 55 0 45 0

Other Parties 13 10 23 7 0 60

Didn't Vote in the last provincial election 20 45 27 15 5 8

TORONTO February 8th, 2013

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603 -30-

For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) 960-9603 Fax: (416) 960-9602 E-mail: [email protected]

TORONTO February 8th, 2013

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

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