Classification and Prediction

 What is classification? What is  Support Vector Machines (SVM)

prediction?  Associative classification
 Issues regarding classification  Lazy learners (or learning from
and prediction your neighbors)
 Classification by decision tree  Other classification methods
induction  Prediction
 Bayesian classification  Accuracy and error measures
 Rule-based classification  Ensemble methods
 Classification by back  Model selection
propagation  Summary
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 1
 Classification vs. Prediction
 Classification
 predicts categorical class labels (discrete or nominal)

 classifies data (constructs a model) based on the

training set and the values (class labels) in a classifying

attribute and uses it in classifying new data
 Prediction
 models continuous-valued functions, i.e., predicts

unknown or missing values

 Typical applications
 Credit approval

 Target marketing

 Medical diagnosis

 Fraud detection

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 2

 Classification—A Two-Step Process
 Model construction: describing a set of predetermined classes
 Each tuple/sample is assumed to belong to a predefined class,

as determined by the class label attribute

 The set of tuples used for model construction is training set

 The model is represented as classification rules, decision trees,

or mathematical formulae
 Model usage: for classifying future or unknown objects
 Estimate accuracy of the model

 The known label of test sample is compared with the

classified result from the model

 Accuracy rate is the percentage of test set samples that are

correctly classified by the model

 Test set is independent of training set, otherwise over-fitting

will occur
 If the accuracy is acceptable, use the model to classify data

tuples whose class labels are not known

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 3
 Process (1): Model Construction

Classification
Algorithms
Training
Data

NAME RANK YEARS TENURED Classifier

Mike Assistant Prof 3 no (Model)
Mary Assistant Prof 7 yes
Bill Professor 2 yes
Jim Associate Prof 7 yes IF rank = ‘professor’
Dave Assistant Prof 6 no
OR years > 6
Anne Associate Prof 3 no
THEN tenured = ‘yes’
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 4
Process (2): Using the Model in Prediction

Classifier

Testing
Data Unseen Data

(Jeff, Professor, 4)
NAME RANK YEARS TENURED
Tom Assistant Prof 2 no Tenured?
Merlisa Associate Prof 7 no
George Professor 5 yes
Joseph Assistant Prof 7 yes
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 5
 Supervised vs. Unsupervised Learning

 Supervised learning (classification)

 Supervision: The training data (observations,
measurements, etc.) are accompanied by labels
indicating the class of the observations
 New data is classified based on the training set
 Unsupervised learning (clustering)
 The class labels of training data is unknown
 Given a set of measurements, observations, etc. with
the aim of establishing the existence of classes or
clusters in the data
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 6
 Classification and Prediction

 What is classification? What is  Support Vector Machines (SVM)

prediction?  Associative classification
 Issues regarding classification  Lazy learners (or learning from
and prediction your neighbors)
 Classification by decision tree  Other classification methods
induction  Prediction
 Bayesian classification  Accuracy and error measures
 Rule-based classification  Ensemble methods
 Classification by back  Model selection
propagation  Summary
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 7
 Issues: Data Preparation

 Data cleaning
 Preprocess data in order to reduce noise and handle
missing values
 Relevance analysis (feature selection)
 Remove the irrelevant or redundant attributes
 Data transformation
 Generalize and/or normalize data

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 8

Issues: Evaluating Classification Methods
 Accuracy
 classifier accuracy: predicting class label

 predictor accuracy: guessing value of predicted

attributes
 Speed
 time to construct the model (training time)

 time to use the model (classification/prediction time)

 Robustness: handling noise and missing values

 Scalability: efficiency in disk-resident databases
 Interpretability
 understanding and insight provided by the model

 Other measures, e.g., goodness of rules, such as decision

tree size or compactness of classification rules
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 9
 Chapter 6. Classification and Prediction

 What is classification? What is  Support Vector Machines (SVM)

prediction?  Associative classification
 Issues regarding classification  Lazy learners (or learning from
and prediction your neighbors)
 Classification by decision tree  Other classification methods
induction  Prediction
 Bayesian classification  Accuracy and error measures
 Rule-based classification  Ensemble methods
 Classification by back  Model selection
propagation  Summary
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 10
Decision Tree Induction: Training Dataset

age income student credit_rating buys_computer

<=30 high no fair no
This <=30 high no excellent no
31…40 high no fair yes
follows an >40 medium no fair yes
example >40 low yes fair yes
of >40 low yes excellent no
31…40 low yes excellent yes
Quinlan’s <=30 medium no fair no
ID3 <=30 low yes fair yes
(Playing >40 medium yes fair yes
<=30 medium yes excellent yes
Tennis) 31…40 medium no excellent yes
31…40 high yes fair yes
>40 medium no excellent no

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 11

 Output: A Decision Tree for “buys_computer”

age?

<=30 overcast
31..40 >40

student? yes credit rating?

no yes excellent fair

no yes no yes

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 12

Algorithm for Decision Tree Induction
 Basic algorithm (a greedy algorithm)
 Tree is constructed in a top-down recursive divide-and-conquer
manner
 At start, all the training examples are at the root
 Attributes are categorical (if continuous-valued, they are
discretized in advance)
 Examples are partitioned recursively based on selected attributes
 Test attributes are selected on the basis of a heuristic or
statistical measure (e.g., information gain)
 Conditions for stopping partitioning
 All samples for a given node belong to the same class
 There are no remaining attributes for further partitioning –
majority voting is employed for classifying the leaf
 There are no samples left
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 13
 Attribute Selection Measure:
Information Gain (ID3/C4.5)
 Select the attribute with the highest information gain
 Let pi be the probability that an arbitrary tuple in D
belongs to class Ci, estimated by |Ci, D|/|D|
 Expected information (entropy) needed to classify a tuple
in D: m
Info( D)   pi log 2 ( pi )
i 1

 Information needed (after using A to split D into v

v |D |
partitions) to classify D: Info A ( D)  
j
 I (D j )
j 1 | D |

 Information gained by branching on attribute A

Gain(A)  Info(D)  Info A(D)
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 14
 Attribute Selection: Information Gain
 Class P: buys_computer = “yes” 5 4
Infoage ( D )  I (2,3)  I (4,0)
 Class N: buys_computer = “no” 14 14
9 9 5 5 5
Info( D)  I (9,5)   log 2 ( )  log 2 ( ) 0.940  I (3,2)  0.694
14 14 14 14 14
age pi ni I(p i, n i) 5
I (2,3) means “age <=30” has 5
<=30 2 3 0.971 14
out of 14 samples, with 2 yes’es
31…40 4 0 0 and 3 no’s. Hence
>40 3 2 0.971
age income student credit_rating buys_computer Gain(age)  Info( D)  Infoage ( D)  0.246
<=30 high no fair no
<=30 high no excellent no
31…40 high no fair yes Similarly,
>40 medium no fair yes
>40 low yes fair yes
>40
31…40 low
low yes
yes
excellent
excellent
no
yes
Gain(income)  0.029
Gain( student )  0.151
<=30 medium no fair no
<=30 low yes fair yes
>40 medium yes fair yes
<=30 medium
31…40 medium
yes
no
excellent
excellent
yes
yes
Gain(credit _ rating )  0.048
31…40 high yes fair yes
>40January 17, 2022 no
medium excellent Data Mining:
no Concepts and Techniques 15
 Computing Information-Gain for
Continuous-Value Attributes
 Let attribute A be a continuous-valued attribute
 Must determine the best split point for A
 Sort the value A in increasing order
 Typically, the midpoint between each pair of adjacent
values is considered as a possible split point
 (ai+ai+1)/2 is the midpoint between the values of ai and ai+1
 The point with the minimum expected information
requirement for A is selected as the split-point for A
 Split:
 D1 is the set of tuples in D satisfying A ≤ split-point, and
D2 is the set of tuples in D satisfying A > split-point
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 16
Gain Ratio for Attribute Selection (C4.5)

 Information gain measure is biased towards attributes

with a large number of values
 C4.5 (a successor of ID3) uses gain ratio to overcome the
problem (normalization to information gain)
v | Dj | | Dj |
SplitInfo A ( D)    log 2 ( )
j 1 |D| |D|
 GainRatio(A) = Gain(A)/SplitInfo(A)
4 4 6 6 4 4
 Ex. SplitInfo A ( D )    log 2 ( )   log 2 ( )   log 2 ( )  0.926
14 14 14 14 14 14
 gain_ratio(income) = 0.029/0.926 = 0.031
 The attribute with the maximum gain ratio is selected as
the splitting attribute
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 17
Gini index (CART, IBM IntelligentMiner)
 If a data set D contains examples from n classes, gini index, gini(D) is
defined as n
gini( D)  1  p 2j
j 1
where pj is the relative frequency of class j in D
 If a data set D is split on A into two subsets D1 and D2, the gini index
gini(D) is defined as
|D1| |D |
gini A ( D)  gini( D1)  2 gini( D 2)
|D| |D|
 Reduction in Impurity:
gini( A)  gini(D)  giniA ( D)
 The attribute provides the smallest ginisplit(D) (or the largest reduction in
impurity) is chosen to split the node (need to enumerate all the possible
splitting points for each attribute)
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 18
Gini index (CART, IBM IntelligentMiner)
 Ex. D has 9 tuples in buys_computer = “yes” and 5 in “no”
2 2
   
9 5
gini ( D)  1        0.459
 14   14 
 Suppose the attribute income partitions D into 10 in D1: {low,
medium} and 4 in D2 giniincome{low,medium} ( D)   10 Gini( D1 )   4 Gini( D2 )
 14   14 

but gini{medium,high} is 0.30 and thus the best since it is the lowest
 All attributes are assumed continuous-valued
 May need other tools, e.g., clustering, to get the possible split values
 Can be modified for categorical attributes

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 19

Comparing Attribute Selection Measures

 The three measures, in general, return good results but

 Information gain:
 biased towards multivalued attributes
 Gain ratio:
 tends to prefer unbalanced splits in which one
partition is much smaller than the others
 Gini index:
 biased to multivalued attributes
 has difficulty when # of classes is large
 tends to favor tests that result in equal-sized
partitions and purity in both partitions
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 20
 Other Attribute Selection Measures
 CHAID: a popular decision tree algorithm, measure based on χ2 test
for independence
 C-SEP: performs better than info. gain and gini index in certain cases
 G-statistics: has a close approximation to χ2 distribution
 MDL (Minimal Description Length) principle (i.e., the simplest solution
is preferred):
 The best tree as the one that requires the fewest # of bits to both
(1) encode the tree, and (2) encode the exceptions to the tree
 Multivariate splits (partition based on multiple variable combinations)
 CART: finds multivariate splits based on a linear comb. of attrs.
 Which attribute selection measure is the best?
 Most give good results, none is significantly superior than others

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 21

 Overfitting and Tree Pruning
 Overfitting: An induced tree may overfit the training data
 Too many branches, some may reflect anomalies due to noise or
outliers
 Poor accuracy for unseen samples
 Two approaches to avoid overfitting
 Prepruning: Halt tree construction early—do not split a node if this
would result in the goodness measure falling below a threshold
 Difficult to choose an appropriate threshold
 Postpruning: Remove branches from a “fully grown” tree—get a
sequence of progressively pruned trees
 Use a set of data different from the training data to decide
which is the “best pruned tree”
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 22
Enhancements to Basic Decision Tree Induction

 Allow for continuous-valued attributes

 Dynamically define new discrete-valued attributes that
partition the continuous attribute value into a discrete
set of intervals
 Handle missing attribute values
 Assign the most common value of the attribute
 Assign probability to each of the possible values
 Attribute construction
 Create new attributes based on existing ones that are
sparsely represented
 This reduces fragmentation, repetition, and replication
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 23
 Classification in Large Databases

 Classification—a classical problem extensively studied by

statisticians and machine learning researchers
 Scalability: Classifying data sets with millions of examples
and hundreds of attributes with reasonable speed
 Why decision tree induction in data mining?
 relatively faster learning speed (than other classification

methods)
 convertible to simple and easy to understand

classification rules
 can use SQL queries for accessing databases

 comparable classification accuracy with other methods

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 24

 Scalable Decision Tree Induction Methods

 SLIQ (EDBT’96 — Mehta et al.)

 Builds an index for each attribute and only class list and

the current attribute list reside in memory

 SPRINT (VLDB’96 — J. Shafer et al.)
 Constructs an attribute list data structure

 PUBLIC (VLDB’98 — Rastogi & Shim)

 Integrates tree splitting and tree pruning: stop growing

the tree earlier

 RainForest (VLDB’98 — Gehrke, Ramakrishnan & Ganti)
 Builds an AVC-list (attribute, value, class label)

 BOAT (PODS’99 — Gehrke, Ganti, Ramakrishnan & Loh)

 Uses bootstrapping to create several small samples

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 25

 Scalability Framework for RainForest

 Separates the scalability aspects from the criteria that

determine the quality of the tree
 Builds an AVC-list: AVC (Attribute, Value, Class_label)
 AVC-set (of an attribute X )
 Projection of training dataset onto the attribute X and
class label where counts of individual class label are
aggregated
 AVC-group (of a node n )
 Set of AVC-sets of all predictor attributes at the node n

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 26

 Rainforest: Training Set and Its AVC Sets

Training Examples AVC-set on Age AVC-set on income

age income studentcredit_rating
buys_computerAge Buy_Computer income Buy_Computer

<=30 high no fair no yes no

yes no
<=30 high no excellent no
high 2 2
31…40 high no fair yes <=30 3 2
31..40 4 0 medium 4 2
>40 medium no fair yes
>40 low yes fair yes >40 3 2 low 3 1

>40 low yes excellent no

31…40 low yes excellent yes
AVC-set on
<=30 medium no fair no AVC-set on Student
credit_rating
<=30 low yes fair yes
student Buy_Computer Buy_Computer
>40 medium yes fair yes
Credit
<=30 medium yes excellent yes yes no
rating yes no
31…40 medium no excellent yes yes 6 1 fair 6 2
31…40 high yes fair yes no 3 4 excellent 3 3
>40 medium no excellent no
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 27
Data Cube-Based Decision-Tree Induction

 Integration of generalization with decision-tree induction

(Kamber et al.’97)
 Classification at primitive concept levels
 E.g., precise temperature, humidity, outlook, etc.
 Low-level concepts, scattered classes, bushy
classification-trees
 Semantic interpretation problems
 Cube-based multi-level classification
 Relevance analysis at multi-levels
 Information-gain analysis with dimension + level
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 28
 BOAT (Bootstrapped Optimistic Algorithm
for Tree Construction)

 Use a statistical technique called bootstrapping to create

several smaller samples (subsets), each fits in memory
 Each subset is used to create a tree, resulting in several
trees
 These trees are examined and used to construct a new
tree T’
 It turns out that T’ is very close to the tree that would
be generated using the whole data set together
 Adv: requires only two scans of DB, an incremental alg.

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 29

 Presentation of Classification Results

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 30

 Visualization of a Decision Tree in SGI/MineSet 3.0

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 31

Interactive Visual Mining by Perception-Based
Classification (PBC)

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 32

 Chapter 6. Classification and Prediction

 What is classification? What is  Support Vector Machines (SVM)

prediction?  Associative classification
 Issues regarding classification  Lazy learners (or learning from
and prediction your neighbors)
 Classification by decision tree  Other classification methods
induction  Prediction
 Bayesian classification  Accuracy and error measures
 Rule-based classification  Ensemble methods
 Classification by back  Model selection
propagation  Summary
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 33
 Bayesian Classification: Why?
 A statistical classifier: performs probabilistic prediction,
i.e., predicts class membership probabilities
 Foundation: Based on Bayes’ Theorem.
 Performance: A simple Bayesian classifier, naïve Bayesian
classifier, has comparable performance with decision tree
and selected neural network classifiers
 Incremental: Each training example can incrementally
increase/decrease the probability that a hypothesis is
correct — prior knowledge can be combined with
observed data
 Standard: Even when Bayesian methods are
computationally intractable, they can provide a standard
of optimal decision making against which other methods
can be measured
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 34
 Bayesian Theorem: Basics

 Let X be a data sample (“evidence”): class label is unknown

 Let H be a hypothesis that X belongs to class C
 Classification is to determine P(H|X), the probability that the
hypothesis holds given the observed data sample X
 P(H) (prior probability), the initial probability
 E.g., X will buy computer, regardless of age, income, …
 P(X): probability that sample data is observed
 P(X|H) (posteriori probability), the probability of observing
the sample X, given that the hypothesis holds
 E.g., Given that X will buy computer, the prob. that X is
31..40, medium income
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 35
 Bayesian Theorem

 Given training data X, posteriori probability of a

hypothesis H, P(H|X), follows the Bayes theorem

P( H | X)  P(X | H ) P(H )
P(X)
 Informally, this can be written as
posteriori = likelihood x prior/evidence
 Predicts X belongs to C2 iff the probability P(Ci|X) is the
highest among all the P(Ck|X) for all the k classes
 Practical difficulty: require initial knowledge of many
probabilities, significant computational cost
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 36
 Towards Naïve Bayesian Classifier
 Let D be a training set of tuples and their associated class
labels, and each tuple is represented by an n-D attribute
vector X = (x1, x2, …, xn)
 Suppose there are m classes C1, C2, …, Cm.
 Classification is to derive the maximum posteriori, i.e., the
maximal P(Ci|X)
 This can be derived from Bayes’ theorem
P(X | C )P(C )
P(C | X)  i i
i P(X)
 Since P(X) is constant for all classes, only
P(C | X)  P(X | C )P(C )
i i i

needs to be maximized
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 37
Derivation of Naïve Bayes Classifier
 A simplified assumption: attributes are conditionally
independent (i.e., no dependence relation between
attributes): n
P( X | C i )   P ( x | C i )  P( x | C i )  P( x | C i )  ... P( x | C i )
k 1 2 n
k 1
 This greatly reduces the computation cost: Only counts
the class distribution
 If Ak is categorical, P(xk|Ci) is the # of tuples in Ci having
value xk for Ak divided by |Ci, D| (# of tuples of Ci in D)
 If Ak is continous-valued, P(xk|Ci) is usually computed
based on Gaussian distribution with a mean μ and
standard deviation σ 1 
( x ) 2

g ( x,  ,  )  e 2 2
2 
and P(xk|Ci) is
P ( X | C i )  g ( xk ,  C i ,  C i )
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 38
Naïve Bayesian Classifier: Training Dataset
age income studentcredit_rating
buys_compu
<=30 high no fair no
<=30 high no excellent no
Class: 31…40 high no fair yes
C1:buys_computer = ‘yes’ >40 medium no fair yes
C2:buys_computer = ‘no’ >40 low yes fair yes
>40 low yes excellent no
Data sample
31…40 low yes excellent yes
X = (age <=30,
<=30 medium no fair no
Income = medium,
Student = yes <=30 low yes fair yes
Credit_rating = Fair) >40 medium yes fair yes
<=30 medium yes excellent yes
31…40 medium no excellent yes
31…40 high yes fair yes
>40 medium no excellent no
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 39
Naïve Bayesian Classifier: An Example
 P(Ci): P(buys_computer = “yes”) = 9/14 = 0.643
P(buys_computer = “no”) = 5/14= 0.357

 Compute P(X|Ci) for each class

P(age = “<=30” | buys_computer = “yes”) = 2/9 = 0.222
P(age = “<= 30” | buys_computer = “no”) = 3/5 = 0.6
P(income = “medium” | buys_computer = “yes”) = 4/9 = 0.444
P(income = “medium” | buys_computer = “no”) = 2/5 = 0.4
P(student = “yes” | buys_computer = “yes) = 6/9 = 0.667
P(student = “yes” | buys_computer = “no”) = 1/5 = 0.2
P(credit_rating = “fair” | buys_computer = “yes”) = 6/9 = 0.667
P(credit_rating = “fair” | buys_computer = “no”) = 2/5 = 0.4

 X = (age <= 30 , income = medium, student = yes, credit_rating = fair)

P(X|Ci) : P(X|buys_computer = “yes”) = 0.222 x 0.444 x 0.667 x 0.667 = 0.044

P(X|buys_computer = “no”) = 0.6 x 0.4 x 0.2 x 0.4 = 0.019
P(X|Ci)*P(Ci) : P(X|buys_computer = “yes”) * P(buys_computer = “yes”) = 0.028
P(X|buys_computer = “no”) * P(buys_computer = “no”) = 0.007

Therefore, X belongs to class (“buys_computer = yes”)

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 40

 Avoiding the 0-Probability Problem
 Naïve Bayesian prediction requires each conditional prob. be non-
zero. Otherwise, the predicted prob. will be zero
n
P( X | C i)   P( x k | C i)
k 1
 Ex. Suppose a dataset with 1000 tuples, income=low (0), income=
medium (990), and income = high (10),
 Use Laplacian correction (or Laplacian estimator)
 Adding 1 to each case

Prob(income = low) = 1/1003

Prob(income = medium) = 991/1003
Prob(income = high) = 11/1003
 The “corrected” prob. estimates are close to their “uncorrected”

counterparts
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 41
Naïve Bayesian Classifier: Comments
 Advantages
 Easy to implement

 Good results obtained in most of the cases

 Disadvantages
 Assumption: class conditional independence, therefore loss

of accuracy
 Practically, dependencies exist among variables

 E.g., hospitals: patients: Profile: age, family history, etc.

Symptoms: fever, cough etc., Disease: lung cancer, diabetes, etc.
 Dependencies among these cannot be modeled by Naïve Bayesian

Classifier
 How to deal with these dependencies?
 Bayesian Belief Networks

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 42

 Bayesian Belief Networks

 Bayesian belief network allows a subset of the variables

conditionally independent
 A graphical model of causal relationships
 Represents dependency among the variables

 Gives a specification of joint probability distribution

 Nodes: random variables

 Links: dependency
X Y  X and Y are the parents of Z, and Y is
the parent of P
Z  No dependency between Z and P
P  Has no loops or cycles
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 43
Bayesian Belief Network: An Example

Family The conditional probability table

Smoker
History (CPT) for variable LungCancer:
(FH, S) (FH, ~S) (~FH, S) (~FH, ~S)

LC 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.1

LungCancer Emphysema ~LC 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.9

CPT shows the conditional probability for

each possible combination of its parents

PositiveXRay Dyspnea Derivation of the probability of a

particular combination of values of X,
from CPT:
n
Bayesian Belief Networks P ( x1 ,..., xn )   P ( x i | Parents (Y i ))
i 1
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 44
 Training Bayesian Networks
 Several scenarios:
 Given both the network structure and all variables

observable: learn only the CPTs

 Network structure known, some hidden variables:

gradient descent (greedy hill-climbing) method,

analogous to neural network learning
 Network structure unknown, all variables observable:

search through the model space to reconstruct

network topology
 Unknown structure, all hidden variables: No good

algorithms known for this purpose

 Ref. D. Heckerman: Bayesian networks for data mining

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 45

 Chapter 6. Classification and Prediction

 What is classification? What is  Support Vector Machines (SVM)

prediction?  Associative classification
 Issues regarding classification  Lazy learners (or learning from
and prediction your neighbors)
 Classification by decision tree  Other classification methods
induction  Prediction
 Bayesian classification  Accuracy and error measures
 Rule-based classification  Ensemble methods
 Classification by back  Model selection
propagation  Summary
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 46
 Using IF-THEN Rules for Classification
 Represent the knowledge in the form of IF-THEN rules
R: IF age = youth AND student = yes THEN buys_computer = yes
 Rule antecedent/precondition vs. rule consequent
 Assessment of a rule: coverage and accuracy
 ncovers = # of tuples covered by R
 ncorrect = # of tuples correctly classified by R
coverage(R) = ncovers /|D| /* D: training data set */
accuracy(R) = ncorrect / ncovers
 If more than one rule is triggered, need conflict resolution
 Size ordering: assign the highest priority to the triggering rules that has the
“toughest” requirement (i.e., with the most attribute test)
 Class-based ordering: decreasing order of prevalence or misclassification
cost per class
 Rule-based ordering (decision list): rules are organized into one long
priority list, according to some measure of rule quality or by experts
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 47
 Rule Extraction from a Decision Tree
age?

<=30 31..40 >40

 Rules are easier to understand than large trees student? credit rating?
yes
 One rule is created for each path from the root excellent fair
no yes
to a leaf no yes
no yes
 Each attribute-value pair along a path forms a
conjunction: the leaf holds the class prediction
 Rules are mutually exclusive and exhaustive
 Example: Rule extraction from our buys_computer decision-tree
IF age = young AND student = no THEN buys_computer = no
IF age = young AND student = yes THEN buys_computer = yes
IF age = mid-age THEN buys_computer = yes
IF age = old AND credit_rating = excellent THEN buys_computer = no
IF age = young AND credit_rating = fair THEN buys_computer = yes

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 48

 Rule Extraction from the Training Data

 Sequential covering algorithm: Extracts rules directly from training data

 Typical sequential covering algorithms: FOIL, AQ, CN2, RIPPER
 Rules are learned sequentially, each for a given class Ci will cover many
tuples of Ci but none (or few) of the tuples of other classes
 Steps:
 Rules are learned one at a time
 Each time a rule is learned, the tuples covered by the rules are
removed
 The process repeats on the remaining tuples unless termination
condition, e.g., when no more training examples or when the quality
of a rule returned is below a user-specified threshold
 Comp. w. decision-tree induction: learning a set of rules simultaneously

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 49

 How to Learn-One-Rule?
 Star with the most general rule possible: condition = empty
 Adding new attributes by adopting a greedy depth-first strategy
 Picks the one that most improves the rule quality
 Rule-Quality measures: consider both coverage and accuracy
 Foil-gain (in FOIL & RIPPER): assesses info_gain by extending
condition pos' pos
FOIL _ Gain  pos'(log2  log 2 )
pos' neg ' pos  neg
It favors rules that have high accuracy and cover many positive tuples
 Rule pruning based on an independent set of test tuples
pos  neg
FOIL _ Prune( R) 
pos  neg
Pos/neg are # of positive/negative tuples covered by R.
If FOIL_Prune is higher for the pruned version of R, prune R

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 50

 Chapter 6. Classification and Prediction

 What is classification? What is  Support Vector Machines (SVM)

prediction?  Associative classification
 Issues regarding classification  Lazy learners (or learning from
and prediction your neighbors)
 Classification by decision tree  Other classification methods
induction  Prediction
 Bayesian classification  Accuracy and error measures
 Rule-based classification  Ensemble methods
 Classification by back  Model selection
propagation  Summary
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 51
 Classification: A Mathematical Mapping

 Classification:
 predicts categorical class labels

 E.g., Personal homepage classification

 x = (x , x , x , …), y = +1 or –1
i 1 2 3 i

 x1 : # of a word “homepage”
 x2 : # of a word “welcome”
 Mathematically
 x  X = n, y  Y = {+1, –1}

 We want a function f: X  Y

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 52

 Linear Classification
 Binary Classification
problem
 The data above the red
line belongs to class ‘x’
x  The data below red line
x x
x x belongs to class ‘o’
x  Examples: SVM,
x x x o
Perceptron, Probabilistic
o
x o Classifiers
o o o
o o o
o o o o

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 53

 Discriminative Classifiers
 Advantages
 prediction accuracy is generally high

 As compared to Bayesian methods – in general

 robust, works when training examples contain errors
 fast evaluation of the learned target function
 Bayesian networks are normally slow
 Criticism
 long training time

 difficult to understand the learned function (weights)

 Bayesian networks can be used easily for pattern discovery

 not easy to incorporate domain knowledge
 Easy in the form of priors on the data or distributions
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 54
 Perceptron & Winnow
• Vector: x, w
x2 • Scalar: x, y, w
Input: {(x1, y1), …}
Output: classification function f(x)
f(xi) > 0 for yi = +1
f(xi) < 0 for yi = -1
f(x) => wx + b = 0
or w1x1+w2x2+b = 0
• Perceptron: update W

additively
•Winnow: update W
multiplicatively
x1

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 55

 Classification by Backpropagation

 Backpropagation: A neural network learning algorithm

 Started by psychologists and neurobiologists to develop
and test computational analogues of neurons
 A neural network: A set of connected input/output units
where each connection has a weight associated with it
 During the learning phase, the network learns by
adjusting the weights so as to be able to predict the
correct class label of the input tuples
 Also referred to as connectionist learning due to the
connections between units

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 56

 Neural Network as a Classifier
 Weakness
 Long training time
 Require a number of parameters typically best determined
empirically, e.g., the network topology or ``structure."
 Poor interpretability: Difficult to interpret the symbolic meaning
behind the learned weights and of ``hidden units" in the network
 Strength
 High tolerance to noisy data
 Ability to classify untrained patterns
 Well-suited for continuous-valued inputs and outputs
 Successful on a wide array of real-world data
 Algorithms are inherently parallel
 Techniques have recently been developed for the extraction of
rules from trained neural networks
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 57
 A Neuron (= a perceptron)

- k
x0 w0
x1 w1
 f
output y
xn wn
For Example
n
Input weight weighted Activation y  sign( wi xi   k )
vector x vector w sum function i 0

 The n-dimensional input vector x is mapped into variable y by

means of the scalar product and a nonlinear function mapping

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 58

A Multi-Layer Feed-Forward Neural Network

Output vector

Err j  O j (1  O j ) Errk w jk
Output layer k

 j   j  (l) Err j
wij  wij  (l ) Err j Oi
Hidden layer Err j  O j (1  O j )(T j  O j )
wij 1
Oj  I j
1 e
Input layer
I j   wij Oi   j
i
Input vector: X
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 59
How A Multi-Layer Neural Network Works?

 The inputs to the network correspond to the attributes measured

for each training tuple
 Inputs are fed simultaneously into the units making up the input
layer
 They are then weighted and fed simultaneously to a hidden layer
 The number of hidden layers is arbitrary, although usually only one
 The weighted outputs of the last hidden layer are input to units
making up the output layer, which emits the network's prediction
 The network is feed-forward in that none of the weights cycles
back to an input unit or to an output unit of a previous layer
 From a statistical point of view, networks perform nonlinear
regression: Given enough hidden units and enough training
samples, they can closely approximate any function
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 60
 Defining a Network Topology
 First decide the network topology: # of units in the
input layer, # of hidden layers (if > 1), # of units in each
hidden layer, and # of units in the output layer
 Normalizing the input values for each attribute measured
in the training tuples to [0.0—1.0]
 One input unit per domain value, each initialized to 0
 Output, if for classification and more than two classes,
one output unit per class is used
 Once a network has been trained and its accuracy is
unacceptable, repeat the training process with a different
network topology or a different set of initial weights

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 61

 Backpropagation
 Iteratively process a set of training tuples & compare the network's
prediction with the actual known target value
 For each training tuple, the weights are modified to minimize the
mean squared error between the network's prediction and the
actual target value
 Modifications are made in the “backwards” direction: from the output
layer, through each hidden layer down to the first hidden layer, hence
“backpropagation”
 Steps
 Initialize weights (to small random #s) and biases in the network

 Propagate the inputs forward (by applying activation function)

 Backpropagate the error (by updating weights and biases)

 Terminating condition (when error is very small, etc.)

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 62

Backpropagation and Interpretability
 Efficiency of backpropagation: Each epoch (one interation through the
training set) takes O(|D| * w), with |D| tuples and w weights, but # of
epochs can be exponential to n, the number of inputs, in the worst
case
 Rule extraction from networks: network pruning
 Simplify the network structure by removing weighted links that
have the least effect on the trained network
 Then perform link, unit, or activation value clustering
 The set of input and activation values are studied to derive rules
describing the relationship between the input and hidden unit
layers
 Sensitivity analysis: assess the impact that a given input variable has
on a network output. The knowledge gained from this analysis can be
represented in rules
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 63
 Chapter 6. Classification and Prediction

 What is classification? What is  Support Vector Machines (SVM)

prediction?  Associative classification
 Issues regarding classification  Lazy learners (or learning from
and prediction your neighbors)
 Classification by decision tree  Other classification methods
induction  Prediction
 Bayesian classification  Accuracy and error measures
 Rule-based classification  Ensemble methods
 Classification by back  Model selection
propagation  Summary
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 64
 SVM—Support Vector Machines
 A new classification method for both linear and nonlinear
data
 It uses a nonlinear mapping to transform the original
training data into a higher dimension
 With the new dimension, it searches for the linear optimal
separating hyperplane (i.e., “decision boundary”)
 With an appropriate nonlinear mapping to a sufficiently
high dimension, data from two classes can always be
separated by a hyperplane
 SVM finds this hyperplane using support vectors
(“essential” training tuples) and margins (defined by the
support vectors)
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 65
 SVM—History and Applications
 Vapnik and colleagues (1992)—groundwork from Vapnik
& Chervonenkis’ statistical learning theory in 1960s
 Features: training can be slow but accuracy is high owing
to their ability to model complex nonlinear decision
boundaries (margin maximization)
 Used both for classification and prediction
 Applications:
 handwritten digit recognition, object recognition,
speaker identification, benchmarking time-series
prediction tests
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 66
 SVM—General Philosophy

Small Margin Large Margin

Support Vectors

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 67

 SVM—Margins and Support Vectors

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 68

SVM—When Data Is Linearly Separable

Let data D be (X1, y1), …, (X|D|, y|D|), where Xi is the set of training tuples
associated with the class labels yi
There are infinite lines (hyperplanes) separating the two classes but we want to
find the best one (the one that minimizes classification error on unseen data)
SVM searches for the hyperplane with the largest margin, i.e., maximum
marginal hyperplane (MMH)

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 69

 SVM—Linearly Separable
 A separating hyperplane can be written as
W●X+b=0
where W={w1, w2, …, wn} is a weight vector and b a scalar (bias)
 For 2-D it can be written as
w0 + w1 x1 + w2 x2 = 0
 The hyperplane defining the sides of the margin:
H1: w0 + w1 x1 + w2 x2 ≥ 1 for yi = +1, and
H2: w0 + w1 x1 + w2 x2 ≤ – 1 for yi = –1
 Any training tuples that fall on hyperplanes H 1 or H2 (i.e., the
sides defining the margin) are support vectors
 This becomes a constrained (convex) quadratic optimization
problem: Quadratic objective function and linear constraints 
Quadratic Programming (QP)  Lagrangian multipliers

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 70

Why Is SVM Effective on High Dimensional Data?

 The complexity of trained classifier is characterized by the # of support

vectors rather than the dimensionality of the data
 The support vectors are the essential or critical training examples —
they lie closest to the decision boundary (MMH)
 If all other training examples are removed and the training is repeated,
the same separating hyperplane would be found
 The number of support vectors found can be used to compute an
(upper) bound on the expected error rate of the SVM classifier, which
is independent of the data dimensionality
 Thus, an SVM with a small number of support vectors can have good
generalization, even when the dimensionality of the data is high

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 71

 A 2

SVM—Linearly Inseparable
A
Transform the original input data into a higher dimensional
1


space

 Search for a linear separating hyperplane in the new space

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 72

 SVM—Kernel functions
 Instead of computing the dot product on the transformed data tuples,
it is mathematically equivalent to instead applying a kernel function
K(Xi, Xj) to the original data, i.e., K(Xi, Xj) = Φ(Xi) Φ(Xj)
 Typical Kernel Functions

 SVM can also be used for classifying multiple (> 2) classes and for
regression analysis (with additional user parameters)

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 73

 Scaling SVM by Hierarchical Micro-Clustering

 SVM is not scalable to the number of data objects in terms of training

time and memory usage
 “Classifying Large Datasets Using SVMs with Hierarchical Clusters
Problem” by Hwanjo Yu, Jiong Yang, Jiawei Han, KDD’03
 CB-SVM (Clustering-Based SVM)
 Given limited amount of system resources (e.g., memory),
maximize the SVM performance in terms of accuracy and the
training speed
 Use micro-clustering to effectively reduce the number of points to
be considered
 At deriving support vectors, de-cluster micro-clusters near
“candidate vector” to ensure high classification accuracy

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 74

 CB-SVM: Clustering-Based SVM
 Training data sets may not even fit in memory
 Read the data set once (minimizing disk access)
 Construct a statistical summary of the data (i.e., hierarchical
clusters) given a limited amount of memory
 The statistical summary maximizes the benefit of learning SVM
 The summary plays a role in indexing SVMs
 Essence of Micro-clustering (Hierarchical indexing structure)
 Use micro-cluster hierarchical indexing structure
 provide finer samples closer to the boundary and coarser
samples farther from the boundary
 Selective de-clustering to ensure high accuracy
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 75
 CF-Tree: Hierarchical Micro-cluster

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 76

 CB-SVM Algorithm: Outline
 Construct two CF-trees from positive and negative data
sets independently
 Need one scan of the data set

 Train an SVM from the centroids of the root entries

 De-cluster the entries near the boundary into the next
level
 The children entries de-clustered from the parent

entries are accumulated into the training set with the

non-declustered parent entries
 Train an SVM again from the centroids of the entries in
the training set
 Repeat until nothing is accumulated
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 77
 Selective Declustering
 CF tree is a suitable base structure for selective declustering
 De-cluster only the cluster Ei such that
 Di – Ri < Ds, where Di is the distance from the boundary to
the center point of Ei and Ri is the radius of Ei
 Decluster only the cluster whose subclusters have
possibilities to be the support cluster of the boundary
 “Support cluster”: The cluster whose centroid is a
support vector

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 78

 Experiment on Synthetic Dataset

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 79

 Experiment on a Large Data Set

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 80

 SVM vs. Neural Network

 SVM  Neural Network

 Relatively old
 Relatively new concept
 Nondeterministic
 Deterministic algorithm
algorithm
 Nice Generalization  Generalizes well but

properties doesn’t have strong

 Hard to learn – learned mathematical foundation
 Can easily be learned in
in batch mode using
incremental fashion
quadratic programming
 To learn complex
techniques functions—use multilayer
 Using kernels can learn perceptron (not that
very complex functions trivial)
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 81
 SVM Related Links

 SVM Website
 http://www.kernel-machines.org/
 Representative implementations
 LIBSVM: an efficient implementation of SVM, multi-class
classifications, nu-SVM, one-class SVM, including also various
interfaces with java, python, etc.
 SVM-light: simpler but performance is not better than LIBSVM,
support only binary classification and only C language
 SVM-torch: another recent implementation also written in C.

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 82

 SVM—Introduction Literature
 “Statistical Learning Theory” by Vapnik: extremely hard to understand,
containing many errors too.
 C. J. C. Burges.
A Tutorial on Support Vector Machines for Pattern Recognition. Knowledge
Discovery and Data Mining, 2(2), 1998.
 Better than the Vapnik’s book, but still written too hard for introduction,
and the examples are so not-intuitive
 The book “An Introduction to Support Vector Machines” by N. Cristianini
and J. Shawe-Taylor
 Also written hard for introduction, but the explanation about the
mercer’s theorem is better than above literatures
 The neural network book by Haykins
 Contains one nice chapter of SVM introduction
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 83
 Chapter 6. Classification and Prediction

 What is classification? What is  Support Vector Machines (SVM)

prediction?  Associative classification
 Issues regarding classification  Lazy learners (or learning from
and prediction your neighbors)
 Classification by decision tree  Other classification methods
induction  Prediction
 Bayesian classification  Accuracy and error measures
 Rule-based classification  Ensemble methods
 Classification by back  Model selection
propagation  Summary
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 84
 Associative Classification
 Associative classification
 Association rules are generated and analyzed for use in classification
 Search for strong associations between frequent patterns (conjunctions
of attribute-value pairs) and class labels
 Classification: Based on evaluating a set of rules in the form of
P1 ^ p2 … ^ pl  “Aclass = C” (conf, sup)
 Why effective?
 It explores highly confident associations among multiple attributes and
may overcome some constraints introduced by decision-tree induction,
which considers only one attribute at a time
 In many studies, associative classification has been found to be more
accurate than some traditional classification methods, such as C4.5
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 85
Typical Associative Classification Methods

 CBA (Classification By Association: Liu, Hsu & Ma, KDD’98)

 Mine association possible rules in the form of
 Cond-set (a set of attribute-value pairs)  class label
 Build classifier: Organize rules according to decreasing precedence
based on confidence and then support
 CMAR (Classification based on Multiple Association Rules: Li, Han, Pei, ICDM’01 )
 Classification: Statistical analysis on multiple rules
 CPAR (Classification based on Predictive Association Rules: Yin & Han, SDM’03 )
 Generation of predictive rules (FOIL-like analysis)
 High efficiency, accuracy similar to CMAR
 RCBT (Mining top-k covering rule groups for gene expression data, Cong et al. SIGMOD’05 )
 Explore high-dimensional classification, using top-k rule groups
 Achieve high classification accuracy and high run-time efficiency
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 86
 A Closer Look at CMAR

 CMAR (Classification based on Multiple Association Rules: Li, Han, Pei, ICDM’01 )
 Efficiency: Uses an enhanced FP-tree that maintains the distribution of
class labels among tuples satisfying each frequent itemset
 Rule pruning whenever a rule is inserted into the tree
 Given two rules, R and R , if the antecedent of R is more general
1 2 1
than that of R2 and conf(R1) ≥ conf(R2), then R2 is pruned
 Prunes rules for which the rule antecedent and class are not
positively correlated, based on a χ2 test of statistical significance
 Classification based on generated/pruned rules
 If only one rule satisfies tuple X, assign the class label of the rule

 If a rule set S satisfies X, CMAR

 divides S into groups according to class labels

 uses a weighted χ2 measure to find the strongest group of rules,

based on the statistical correlation of rules within a group

 assigns X the class label of the strongest group

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 87

 Associative Classification May Achieve High
Accuracy and Efficiency (Cong et al. SIGMOD05)

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 88

 Chapter 6. Classification and Prediction

 What is classification? What is  Support Vector Machines (SVM)

prediction?  Associative classification
 Issues regarding classification  Lazy learners (or learning from
and prediction your neighbors)
 Classification by decision tree  Other classification methods
induction  Prediction
 Bayesian classification  Accuracy and error measures
 Rule-based classification  Ensemble methods
 Classification by back  Model selection
propagation  Summary
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 89
 Lazy vs. Eager Learning
 Lazy vs. eager learning
 Lazy learning (e.g., instance-based learning): Simply

stores training data (or only minor processing) and

waits until it is given a test tuple
 Eager learning (the above discussed methods): Given a

set of training set, constructs a classification model

before receiving new (e.g., test) data to classify
 Lazy: less time in training but more time in predicting
 Accuracy
 Lazy method effectively uses a richer hypothesis space

since it uses many local linear functions to form its

implicit global approximation to the target function
 Eager: must commit to a single hypothesis that covers

the entire instance space

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 90
 Lazy Learner: Instance-Based Methods

 Instance-based learning:
 Store training examples and delay the processing

(“lazy evaluation”) until a new instance must be

classified
 Typical approaches
 k-nearest neighbor approach

 Instances represented as points in a Euclidean

space.
 Locally weighted regression

 Constructs local approximation

 Case-based reasoning

 Uses symbolic representations and knowledge-

based inference
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 91
 The k-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm
 All instances correspond to points in the n-D space
 The nearest neighbor are defined in terms of
Euclidean distance, dist(X1, X2)
 Target function could be discrete- or real- valued
 For discrete-valued, k-NN returns the most common
value among the k training examples nearest to xq
 Vonoroi diagram: the decision surface induced by 1-
NN for a typical set of training examples

_
_
_ _ .
+
_ .
+
xq + . . .
January 17, 2022
_ + .
Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 92
 Discussion on the k-NN Algorithm

 k-NN for real-valued prediction for a given unknown tuple

 Returns the mean values of the k nearest neighbors
 Distance-weighted nearest neighbor algorithm
 Weight the contribution of each of the k neighbors
according to their distance to the query xq w 1
Give greater weight to closer neighbors d ( xq , x )2

i
 Robust to noisy data by averaging k-nearest neighbors
 Curse of dimensionality: distance between neighbors could
be dominated by irrelevant attributes
 To overcome it, axes stretch or elimination of the least
relevant attributes
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 93
 Case-Based Reasoning (CBR)
 CBR: Uses a database of problem solutions to solve new problems
 Store symbolic description (tuples or cases)—not points in a Euclidean
space
 Applications: Customer-service (product-related diagnosis), legal ruling
 Methodology
 Instances represented by rich symbolic descriptions (e.g., function
graphs)
 Search for similar cases, multiple retrieved cases may be combined
 Tight coupling between case retrieval, knowledge-based reasoning, and
problem solving
 Challenges
 Find a good similarity metric
 Indexing based on syntactic similarity measure, and when failure,
backtracking, and adapting to additional cases
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 94
 Chapter 6. Classification and Prediction

 What is classification? What is  Support Vector Machines (SVM)

prediction?  Associative classification
 Issues regarding classification  Lazy learners (or learning from
and prediction your neighbors)
 Classification by decision tree  Other classification methods
induction  Prediction
 Bayesian classification  Accuracy and error measures
 Rule-based classification  Ensemble methods
 Classification by back  Model selection
propagation  Summary
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 95
 Genetic Algorithms (GA)
 Genetic Algorithm: based on an analogy to biological evolution
 An initial population is created consisting of randomly generated rules
 Each rule is represented by a string of bits
 E.g., if A1 and ¬A2 then C2 can be encoded as 100
 If an attribute has k > 2 values, k bits can be used
 Based on the notion of survival of the fittest, a new population is
formed to consist of the fittest rules and their offsprings
 The fitness of a rule is represented by its classification accuracy on a
set of training examples
 Offsprings are generated by crossover and mutation
 The process continues until a population P evolves when each rule in P
satisfies a prespecified threshold
 Slow but easily parallelizable
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 96
 Rough Set Approach
 Rough sets are used to approximately or “roughly” define
equivalent classes
 A rough set for a given class C is approximated by two sets: a lower
approximation (certain to be in C) and an upper approximation
(cannot be described as not belonging to C)
 Finding the minimal subsets (reducts) of attributes for feature
reduction is NP-hard but a discernibility matrix (which stores the
differences between attribute values for each pair of data tuples) is
used to reduce the computation intensity

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 97

 Fuzzy Set
Approaches

 Fuzzy logic uses truth values between 0.0 and 1.0 to

represent the degree of membership (such as using fuzzy
membership graph)
 Attribute values are converted to fuzzy values
 e.g., income is mapped into the discrete categories

{low, medium, high} with fuzzy values calculated

 For a given new sample, more than one fuzzy value may
apply
 Each applicable rule contributes a vote for membership in
the categories
 Typically, the truth values for each predicted category are
summed, and these sums are combined
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 98
 Chapter 6. Classification and Prediction

 What is classification? What is  Support Vector Machines (SVM)

prediction?  Associative classification
 Issues regarding classification  Lazy learners (or learning from
and prediction your neighbors)
 Classification by decision tree  Other classification methods
induction  Prediction
 Bayesian classification  Accuracy and error measures
 Rule-based classification  Ensemble methods
 Classification by back  Model selection
propagation  Summary
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 99
 What Is Prediction?
 (Numerical) prediction is similar to classification
 construct a model

 use model to predict continuous or ordered value for a given input

 Prediction is different from classification

 Classification refers to predict categorical class label

 Prediction models continuous-valued functions

 Major method for prediction: regression

 model the relationship between one or more independent or

predictor variables and a dependent or response variable

 Regression analysis
 Linear and multiple regression

 Non-linear regression

 Other regression methods: generalized linear model, Poisson

regression, log-linear models, regression trees

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 100
 Linear Regression
 Linear regression: involves a response variable y and a single
predictor variable x
y = w 0 + w1 x
where w0 (y-intercept) and w1 (slope) are regression coefficients
 Method of least squares: estimates the best-fitting straight line
| D|

 (x  x )( yi  y )
w  w  yw x
i
i 1

1 | D|
0 1
 (x
i 1
i  x )2

 Multiple linear regression: involves more than one predictor variable

 Training data is of the form (X1, y1), (X2, y2),…, (X|D|, y|D|)
 Ex. For 2-D data, we may have: y = w0 + w1 x1+ w2 x2
 Solvable by extension of least square method or using SAS, S-Plus
 Many nonlinear functions can be transformed into the above
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 101
 Nonlinear Regression
 Some nonlinear models can be modeled by a polynomial
function
 A polynomial regression model can be transformed into linear
regression model. For example,
y = w0 + w1 x + w2 x2 + w3 x3
convertible to linear with new variables: x2 = x2, x3= x3
y = w0 + w1 x + w2 x2 + w3 x3
 Other functions, such as power function, can also be
transformed to linear model
 Some models are intractable nonlinear (e.g., sum of
exponential terms)
 possible to obtain least square estimates through extensive

calculation on more complex formulae

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 102
 Other Regression-Based Models
 Generalized linear model:
 Foundation on which linear regression can be applied to modeling
categorical response variables
 Variance of y is a function of the mean value of y, not a constant
 Logistic regression: models the prob. of some event occurring as a
linear function of a set of predictor variables
 Poisson regression: models the data that exhibit a Poisson
distribution
 Log-linear models: (for categorical data)
 Approximate discrete multidimensional prob. distributions
 Also useful for data compression and smoothing
 Regression trees and model trees
 Trees to predict continuous values rather than class labels

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 103

 Regression Trees and Model Trees
 Regression tree: proposed in CART system (Breiman et al. 1984)
 CART: Classification And Regression Trees
 Each leaf stores a continuous-valued prediction
 It is the average value of the predicted attribute for the training
tuples that reach the leaf
 Model tree: proposed by Quinlan (1992)
 Each leaf holds a regression model—a multivariate linear equation
for the predicted attribute
 A more general case than regression tree
 Regression and model trees tend to be more accurate than linear
regression when the data are not represented well by a simple linear
model
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 104
Predictive Modeling in Multidimensional Databases

 Predictive modeling: Predict data values or construct

generalized linear models based on the database data
 One can only predict value ranges or category distributions
 Method outline:
 Minimal generalization
 Attribute relevance analysis
 Generalized linear model construction
 Prediction
 Determine the major factors which influence the prediction
 Data relevance analysis: uncertainty measurement,

entropy analysis, expert judgement, etc.

 Multi-level prediction: drill-down and roll-up analysis
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 105
 Prediction: Numerical Data

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 106

 Prediction: Categorical Data

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 107

 Chapter 6. Classification and Prediction

 What is classification? What is  Support Vector Machines (SVM)

prediction?  Associative classification
 Issues regarding classification  Lazy learners (or learning from
and prediction your neighbors)
 Classification by decision tree  Other classification methods
induction  Prediction
 Bayesian classification  Accuracy and error measures
 Rule-based classification  Ensemble methods
 Classification by back  Model selection
propagation  Summary
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 108
 C1 C2

Classifier Accuracy Measures C1 True positive False negative

C2 False positive True negative

classes buy_computer = yes buy_computer = no total recognition(%)

buy_computer = yes 6954 46 7000 99.34
buy_computer = no 412 2588 3000 86.27
total 7366 2634 10000 95.52
 Accuracy of a classifier M, acc(M): percentage of test set tuples that are
correctly classified by the model M
 Error rate (misclassification rate) of M = 1 – acc(M)

 Given m classes, CM , an entry in a confusion matrix, indicates # of

i,j
tuples in class i that are labeled by the classifier as class j
 Alternative accuracy measures (e.g., for cancer diagnosis)
sensitivity = t-pos/pos /* true positive recognition rate */
specificity = t-neg/neg /* true negative recognition rate */
precision = t-pos/(t-pos + f-pos)
accuracy = sensitivity * pos/(pos + neg) + specificity * neg/(pos + neg)
 This model can also be used for cost-benefit analysis

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 109

 Predictor Error Measures
 Measure predictor accuracy: measure how far off the predicted value is
from the actual known value
 Loss function: measures the error betw. yi and the predicted value yi’
 Absolute error: | yi – yi’|
 Squared error: (yi – yi’)2
 Test error (generalization error):
d the average loss over the test
d set
 Mean absolute error:  | y
i 1
i  yi ' |
Mean squared error:  ( y
i 1
i  yi ' ) 2

d d
d
d
 ( yi  yi ' ) 2
Relative absolute error: 
| y  y '|
 i 1 Relative squared error:
i i
i 1
d
d

| y  y |
i 1
i (y
i 1
i  y)2

The mean squared-error exaggerates the presence of outliers

Popularly use (square) root mean-square error, similarly, root relative
squared error
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 110
 Evaluating the Accuracy of a Classifier
or Predictor (I)
 Holdout method
 Given data is randomly partitioned into two independent sets

 Training set (e.g., 2/3) for model construction

 Test set (e.g., 1/3) for accuracy estimation

 Random sampling: a variation of holdout

 Repeat holdout k times, accuracy = avg. of the accuracies

obtained
 Cross-validation (k-fold, where k = 10 is most popular)
 Randomly partition the data into k mutually exclusive subsets,

each approximately equal size

 At i-th iteration, use D as test set and others as training set
i
 Leave-one-out: k folds where k = # of tuples, for small sized data
 Stratified cross-validation: folds are stratified so that class dist. in
each fold is approx. the same as that in the initial data
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 111
 Evaluating the Accuracy of a Classifier
or Predictor (II)
 Bootstrap
 Works well with small data sets
 Samples the given training tuples uniformly with replacement
 i.e., each time a tuple is selected, it is equally likely to be
selected again and re-added to the training set
 Several boostrap methods, and a common one is .632 boostrap
 Suppose we are given a data set of d tuples. The data set is sampled d
times, with replacement, resulting in a training set of d samples. The data
tuples that did not make it into the training set end up forming the test set.
About 63.2% of the original data will end up in the bootstrap, and the
remaining 36.8% will form the test set (since (1 – 1/d)d ≈ e-1 = 0.368)
 Repeat the sampling procedue k times, overall accuracy of the
model: k
acc( M )   (0.632  acc( M i ) test _ set 0.368  acc( M i ) train _ set )
i 1

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 112

 Chapter 6. Classification and Prediction

 What is classification? What is  Support Vector Machines (SVM)

prediction?  Associative classification
 Issues regarding classification  Lazy learners (or learning from
and prediction your neighbors)
 Classification by decision tree  Other classification methods
induction  Prediction
 Bayesian classification  Accuracy and error measures
 Rule-based classification  Ensemble methods
 Classification by back  Model selection
propagation  Summary
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 113
Ensemble Methods: Increasing the Accuracy

 Ensemble methods
 Use a combination of models to increase accuracy

 Combine a series of k learned models, M , M , …, M ,

1 2 k
with the aim of creating an improved model M*
 Popular ensemble methods
 Bagging: averaging the prediction over a collection of

classifiers
 Boosting: weighted vote with a collection of classifiers

 Ensemble: combining a set of heterogeneous classifiers

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 114

 Bagging: Boostrap Aggregation
 Analogy: Diagnosis based on multiple doctors’ majority vote
 Training
 Given a set D of d tuples, at each iteration i, a training set D of d
i
tuples is sampled with replacement from D (i.e., boostrap)
 A classifier model M is learned for each training set D
i i

 Classification: classify an unknown sample X

 Each classifier M returns its class prediction
i
 The bagged classifier M* counts the votes and assigns the class
with the most votes to X
 Prediction: can be applied to the prediction of continuous values by
taking the average value of each prediction for a given test tuple
 Accuracy
 Often significant better than a single classifier derived from D

 For noise data: not considerably worse, more robust

 Proved improved accuracy in prediction

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 115

 Boosting
 Analogy: Consult several doctors, based on a combination of weighted
diagnoses—weight assigned based on the previous diagnosis accuracy
 How boosting works?
 Weights are assigned to each training tuple
 A series of k classifiers is iteratively learned
 After a classifier Mi is learned, the weights are updated to allow the
subsequent classifier, Mi+1, to pay more attention to the training
tuples that were misclassified by Mi
 The final M* combines the votes of each individual classifier, where
the weight of each classifier's vote is a function of its accuracy
 The boosting algorithm can be extended for the prediction of
continuous values
 Comparing with bagging: boosting tends to achieve greater accuracy,
but it also risks overfitting the model to misclassified data
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 116
Adaboost (Freund and Schapire, 1997)
 Given a set of d class-labeled tuples, (X1, y1), …, (Xd, yd)
 Initially, all the weights of tuples are set the same (1/d)
 Generate k classifiers in k rounds. At round i,
 Tuples from D are sampled (with replacement) to form a
training set Di of the same size
 Each tuple’s chance of being selected is based on its weight
 A classification model Mi is derived from Di
 Its error rate is calculated using Di as a test set
 If a tuple is misclssified, its weight is increased, o.w. it is
decreased
 Error rate: err(Xj) is the misclassification error of tuple Xj. Classifier
Mi error rate is the sum dof the weights of the misclassified tuples:
error ( M i )   w j  err ( X j )
j
1  error ( M i )
log
 The weight of classifier Mi’s vote is error ( M i )
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 117
 Chapter 6. Classification and Prediction

 What is classification? What is  Support Vector Machines (SVM)

prediction?  Associative classification
 Issues regarding classification  Lazy learners (or learning from
and prediction your neighbors)
 Classification by decision tree  Other classification methods
induction  Prediction
 Bayesian classification  Accuracy and error measures
 Rule-based classification  Ensemble methods
 Classification by back  Model selection
propagation  Summary
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 118
Model Selection: ROC Curves
 ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics)
curves: for visual comparison of
classification models
 Originated from signal detection theory
 Shows the trade-off between the true
positive rate and the false positive rate
 Vertical axis represents
 The area under the ROC curve is a
the true positive rate
measure of the accuracy of the model  Horizontal axis rep. the
 Rank the test tuples in decreasing order: false positive rate
the one that is most likely to belong to the  The plot also shows a
positive class appears at the top of the list diagonal line
 The closer to the diagonal line (i.e., the  A model with perfect
closer the area is to 0.5), the less accurate accuracy will have an
is the model area of 1.0
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 119
 Chapter 6. Classification and Prediction

 What is classification? What is  Support Vector Machines (SVM)

prediction?  Associative classification
 Issues regarding classification  Lazy learners (or learning from
and prediction your neighbors)
 Classification by decision tree  Other classification methods
induction  Prediction
 Bayesian classification  Accuracy and error measures
 Rule-based classification  Ensemble methods
 Classification by back  Model selection
propagation  Summary
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 120
 Summary (I)
 Classification and prediction are two forms of data analysis that can be
used to extract models describing important data classes or to predict
future data trends.
 Effective and scalable methods have been developed for decision trees
induction, Naive Bayesian classification, Bayesian belief network, rule-
based classifier, Backpropagation, Support Vector Machine (SVM),
associative classification, nearest neighbor classifiers, and case-based
reasoning, and other classification methods such as genetic algorithms,
rough set and fuzzy set approaches.
 Linear, nonlinear, and generalized linear models of regression can be
used for prediction. Many nonlinear problems can be converted to linear
problems by performing transformations on the predictor variables.
Regression trees and model trees are also used for prediction.

January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 121

 Summary (II)
 Stratified k-fold cross-validation is a recommended method for
accuracy estimation. Bagging and boosting can be used to increase
overall accuracy by learning and combining a series of individual
models.
 Significance tests and ROC curves are useful for model selection
 There have been numerous comparisons of the different classification
and prediction methods, and the matter remains a research topic
 No single method has been found to be superior over all others for all
data sets
 Issues such as accuracy, training time, robustness, interpretability, and
scalability must be considered and can involve trade-offs, further
complicating the quest for an overall superior method
January 17, 2022 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 122
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