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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: October 12th, 2024

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  • There’s plenty of justifying this war: it’s the carbon price I’ve always dreamed about. The most progress on climate change we ever had was from the COVID pandemic, I want to see oil hit $300/barrel because then the entire world will move mountains to switch to renewables.

    We could’ve done this all painlessly by starting 30 years ago, but we didn’t and this is the only way we have even a chance of reaching net-zero by 2030.

    So, not only is the Iran War the Greta Thunberg dream, but it’s locking in those prices for a good while after the war, thanks to the Arab Gulf oil facilities being not just shut down but also bombed and therefore needing repair/replacement before they can restart after the war.

    And on top of aaaaaaaalllll of that, 1) Trump is taking the flak for this political decision, and 2) we might even get a democratic Iran out of this - it’s not likely, but it’s plausible and would be wonderful news!

    So let’s applaud our Deep Cover Agent from Greta Thunberg’s Personal Army, our great comrade-in-arms, who’s managed to trigger this war!







  • There’s no good way to tell if the containers are full of oil (shipping containers for liquids do exist, and failing that, so do barrels), so it could be an effective way of breaking the blockade.

    But on the other hand, the Arabian peninsula isn’t exactly a breadbasket - basically all of its food is imported. And of course, they have oil money so they can buy absurd amounts of shit on Amazon.



  • Disruptive protests work by drawing attention to the specific system that’s being disrupted by being reasonable, and the injustice that’s inflicted by cops in response.

    Like, a sit-in on a segregated bus: black guy gets on a bus, is beaten by cops for it.

    Disruptive protests don’t work for more abstract problems, because opponents can focus on the protest and it’s disruptiveness without acknowledging the problem it’s in response to. Like, if protestors throw soup on (the glass barrier in front of) a painting, people can discuss the ethics of soup-throwing without mentioning climate even once.

    In other words: disruptive protests are a tool, and only useful if used right.

    PS: the civil rights protesters were all specifically trained for what to do, and to expect police brutality and to not retaliate. None of it was spontaneous, and it wasn’t random jackoffs thrown in with a “figure it out”.



  • As someone in the renewables industry, you should know that literally 100% of all renewables problems ever are caused by their intermittency. Were you late to work? It’s because the sun doesn’t shine at nighttime. If you say “the blackout was caused by renewables”, Joe Q Public will assume you’re referring to intermittency.

    Distinguishing between “renewables” and whether the inverters were grid-forming or not, is a useful distinction, even if it hurts anyone who’s read a dictionary.




  • Does China really benefit? They import a fuckton of oil/gas through the strait of Hormuz, so they’ll face an energy crisis just like the rest of us. Is that worth a drawdown on US munitions and damage to the US’s reputation? The former is temporary and the latter is frankly common under Trump. China’s main concern is, or at least ought to be, getting their economy ahead of their population crisis (which is key to maintaining their claim to legitimacy).

    They’ll benefit from the boom in renewables that an oil crisis usually causes (generalising from a dataset of one), maybe that’s the assumption?




  • Okay, hot take: people care about gas prices because it’s how most people are exposed to politics. No matter how wilfully ignorant you are, you can’t not notice gas prices spiking. Most of the rest of politics is opaque unless you’re tuned in.

    So why does that matter? Because it means everyone (with a car) knows there’s another war in the middle east. So anyone who thought Iraq was bullshit and voted for Trump because he promised “no more wars” is painfully aware that he lied now.