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Cake day: February 27th, 2026

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  • It’s the sort of move that might look like a clever reversal, but ultimately has a very steep price tag.

    A blockade is an act of war, and this one is clearly pointed at the rest of the world, not Iran. It’s predicated on the same faulty assumption that Trump’s administration made when invading Iran: our military is unanswerable, and they will take it lying down.

    Escalation paths from this are all bad-- what if an EU ship ignores challenges from a US Navy vessel, or China sends a military escort with a shipping fleet? Are we really about to start another shooting war, or will we stand there with our dicks in our hands as they sail by?

    I’m thinking this brilliant idea is abandoned in a week.





  • More than fifty research and development facilities across thirty-one states. Gone. Consolidated into a single location in Fort Collins, Colorado. And “consolidated” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence, because what it actually means is that decades of place-based, long-term ecological research — the kind that literally cannot exist anywhere else because it depends on specific forests, specific watersheds, specific ecosystems studied over generations — will be snuffed out.

    This is incredibly depressing, and leaves some huge questions I am afraid to even seek answers for. I worked alongside some brilliant, dedicated scientists stationed at Los Alamos-- does this mean that everyone there on behalf of the forest service is being moved to a desk in SLC?

    It’s plainly a mass firing dressed up as a re-org, and it will cripple our understanding of how to proactively address localized climate change for decades. Fuck.














  • I’m not normally a huge fan of the economist, but I’d be genuinely interested to hear their perspective on this (if I could find an archive). They are a pillar of the fiscal conservative camp, but they tend to be quite insightful on international politics.

    I have been wondering if this is the focal point in the US / China power transition. Iran is not just another tiny state the US can muscle in on, it’s a global economic and population power, and its influence in the region (most obviously on shipping trade) hurts everyone. The open question is whether it hurts manufacturers or the Petro dollar more, though I suspect it’s the latter.