Mere hours before Trump's 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan's government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran's 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I've heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.
In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran's demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.
A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?
One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it's been proposed that the US didn't even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran's electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran's 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.
From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
There's really only 2 options for the US at this point, fold or double down. Try to rein in Israel or try to take the Strait. Both will fail, and I cannot imagine the US will sit by while Iran controls the global distribution of oil. If the US were logical they would abandon Israel. I feel like shit is about to hit the fan and while I admire the Iranians for putting their foot down, I pray for their safety.
Keep up the war long enough and let Iran rip apart the gulf monarchy infrastructure and suddenly West Asia will no longer be the key to the global distribution of oil or natural gas. The US is the number one oil and gas producer on earth, and the number one exporter of energy. They don't mind dragging the war out indefinitely, they don't mind if the strait stays closed. It is Europe, China and Asia that will eat the costs while America profits wildly selling on the spot market to the highest bidders.
This is not the US of the 1970 oil shocks, which imported most of its oil. This is a global reorientation of energy production. It's time to catch up to what the US is doing, they are eliminating the competition. That's why Venezuela was folded. That's why Nordstream was destroyed by the US. That's why Ukraine-Russia war is happening and Ukraine is droning Russia's energy infrastructure. That's why NATO is pirating all the "shadow fleet" and destroying everyone else's oil shipping capabilities while simultaneously passing laws that force anyone doing business with the USA (basically the whole Earth) to use American made ships. It's all just elimination of the competition and monopolization.
This is a wrong take. Or it might be true that they don't mind (now), but then they are stupid (which is plausible). Or I guess it's true that Exxon execs don't mind... (well that is not true either as they spent lot of capital in the Gulf countries)
Oil is just one aspect of this shock. But even when oil and diesel prices will go up globally then US citizens will pay more at the pump too which will lower US aggregate demand, which will hurt US discretionary spending, and US is a consumer economy.
BUT there are parallel supply shocks going on. Fertiliser too, as it comes form natural gas, and helium as well which is crucial for chip-making which is crucial for data centers which are crucial to the tech boom, and Tech is dominant in the NASDAQ.
So not only it is bad for the proletariat, it will be pretty bad for US corpo profit margins as well.
Imperialists don't care about the wellbeing of Americans or the proletariat, nor do they consider the longterm aggregate economic implications. They care about their own profit margins in the short term, which are through the roof. All the American oil companies are making record breaking profits right now. If America is further impoverished, immiserated, etc. they do not give a single shit. They figure all the poors and unemployed will just get in on the new energy boom and drill baby drillin'. After all, if America gets its way, it will be exporting energy to the entire planet. They will need some more workers for that, so who cares if they lose their bullshit email jobs.
I think we all agree this is how capitalism behaves, but capitalism is not sustainable and the cracks are really starting to show in the core
The internal fascism will get worse and as it does so will the currently milquetoast resistance
of course, i'm merely highlighting the contours the new world will take on. I believe the US will position itself as the petro-LNG monopoly and use maritime dominance to try and create a pirate empire and keep competitors out of the picture. The US will become much more gloves off, overtly fascistic and obsessed with oil/LNG. I think we all knew the first two, but the third is important because it shows us where the battlefield will be. If we want to have any kind of impact as leftists inside the core, we will have to target LNG and oil specifically - whether that be through legal unionization and strikes and stoppages, or by other means. I'm trying to paint a big red cartoon target on Chevron and Exxon and do the awooga eyes, if that isn't clear.
But I just explained why margins will tighten or even disappear in the broader economy
yes, right now, and it's one sector of the economy. watch what will happen in a few months
When was the last time corporations gave a single shit about the long term implications on the broader economy? If they did, the US would be a stable social democracy not a fascist pirate state. The rest of the economy can eat shit as far as they care, more unemployed desperate workers to hire into the newly booming energy industry
I guess I agree with that, that's why I said they might not mind now, if they are stupid. But the supermajors are definitely concerned about their capital being wasted by Shahed drones
products need a buyer too
Either way you folks look at it, this is just accelerating collapse of the empire
Worsening material conditions for the proletariat will ultimately lead to unrest. We are already seeing the effects in support for Luigi, support for the warehouse arsonist, etc.
The ruling class knows what's up. Flock cameras on every corner. People are noticing too.
Those buyers will be the entire earth because all competition is gone
Additionally many of them are deranged enough to think AI and robotics are on the cusp of replacing workers so those pesky annoyances won't be a problem much longer anyways and won't have money to spend anyways either.
I think in the long term the US is just going to tighten its grip on the Americas while the rest of the world moves towards clean energy. The moves on Venezuela, Greenland, Cuba, etc. make cohesive sense when viewed through the lens of a shrinking US sphere of influence.
You're right that they will try to control global shipping but I think ultimately it will fail. Europe is already slipping out of the empire's grasp and I think East Asia, Japan/South Korea/Taiwan, will be the next dominoes to fall.
I'm an old fart and I've been hearing this for 45 years, sorry if I'm not impressed that this will happen anytime soon. China has been exerting all of its efforts to swap to renewables as quickly as they can, and even with their world-historical massive efforts they are still only at ~50% renewable energy. I am pessimistic that full renewable energy will occur in any near-term timeline at any appreciable scale. Especially with the US sabotaging the renewable energy projects and sanctioning China's renewable energy production exports.
EU will be completely vassalized by the US and captured. They will not be transitioning off of American LNG and oil anytime soon, and if they try they will be punished and replaced by their suzerain.