Mere hours before Trump's 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan's government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran's 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I've heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.
In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran's demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.
A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?
One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it's been proposed that the US didn't even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran's electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran's 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.
From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
There's really only 2 options for the US at this point, fold or double down. Try to rein in Israel or try to take the Strait. Both will fail, and I cannot imagine the US will sit by while Iran controls the global distribution of oil. If the US were logical they would abandon Israel. I feel like shit is about to hit the fan and while I admire the Iranians for putting their foot down, I pray for their safety.
here's Trump entering a UFC event as Vance says that negotiations with Iran have failed
Video: https://xcancel.com/atrupar/status/2043143984776671416
No other President in HISTORY cares as little about the Job of President as I do!!!
Apparently, the nuclear issue was the main sticking point according to Vance. The US demanded a commitment not to build a nuclear bomb, and Iran declined. This is good news, because it means Iran is no longer fucking around and is taking steps to secure their country's long term future.
Hilarious how just a couple of weeks ago, the US actually had that one demand in the bag in Geneva, but then couldn't control their bloodthirstiness, and ended up losing all of their leverage.
Edit: Also confirmed by Iranian media: https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/12/3563615/iran-us-talks-end-in-islamabad-us-s-excessive-demands-prevent-common-framework
I'm trying to think about what happens after the negotiations inevitably fail. We will see Ansarallah fully join the fighting but that's probably it for large changes. The smaller changes are that Iran had time to process and analyze their tactics (especially the SAMbushes) and the US got more missiles and time to repair their aircraft. To reference Brandon, I don't think anything fundamentally changed. Am I missing something?
NYT update
We’re now crossed 4 a.m. local time in Islamabad and Vice President JD Vance is still in negotiations with the Iranians. The American delegation arrived at the Serena Hotel shortly after noon on Saturday, but the press has not seen Vance or other senior officials since they arrived in Pakistan hours earlier. During the more than 15 hours of talks, the White House has not provided any details about the status of the negotiations.
Not even lies?
BREAKING: At least three planes from Tehran have landed in Rawalpindi’s Nur Khan Air base in the last hour, where both the Iranian and the US delegations arrived, reports Al Jazeera's @abidhussayn
Either more members of the delegation arriving (doubtful), or Iran is already thinking about walking away from the negotiations. I really hope they arrive safely back to Iran, I'm certain that USIS is already preparing to kill or kidnap them.
Zionists dropping White phosphorus on Lebanon
Multiple reports and footage suggesting Israel used white phosphorus bombs today over the residential village of Al-Tiri in southern Lebanon
https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2043077668065640726
Just in, Pakistan military will conduct a missile test in the Arabian sea shortly, NOTAM has been issued.
Good timing why not get a missile test off at this moment, nothing else is going on
https://xcancel.com/Rumeno10/status/2043079914321252569
There always needs to be something happening at any given moment, otherwise we'll go back to the "nothing ever happens" baseline, which is hard to recover from.
Negotiations update per Drop Site
🗞️ Negotiation Updates | 5 PM ET
🔴 Iran–U.S. talks in Islamabad have now continued for more than 8 hours, according to Iranian media.
▪️ A new round of trilateral negotiations between Iran, the U.S., and Pakistan began around 4PM ET, with Pakistani officials mediating and in the room. ▫️Abbas Araghchi, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Ali Bagheri Kani are representing Iran. ▫️JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner are representing the U.S.
▪️ Fars reports that due to what Iranian officials describe as “excessive demands” from the U.S., this round likely represents the final opportunity for both sides to reach a common framework.
Talks are ongoing.
An Irish person performing some direct action on a US airforce plane at Shannon airport
https://tankie.tube/w/xmKB1B3rCUQ9EHzgUJHpxA
How many times has Trump said he won? 20+?
NYT update
President Trump stopped to talk to reporters before leaving the White House for a trip to Miami. As negotiations continue in Pakistan, Trump said it did not matter to him if a deal with Iran is reached or not. [He said:]
“We win, regardless. We’ve defeated them militarily."
Ecuadorian court upholds suspension of the Socialist Party, Citizen Revolution - Prensa Latina
Article
Quito, April 11 (Prensa Latina) Ecuador's Citizen Revolution (RC) movement remains suspended today after the Electoral Disputes Tribunal (TCE) ratified the measure, due to an ongoing investigation against the organization for alleged money laundering.
The TCE upheld the precautionary measure issued on March 6 by Judge Joaquín Viteri, based on a report submitted by prosecutor Judith Bonilla, which confirms that the investigation is ongoing and confidential.
With this, RC remains politically disqualified while the investigation linked to the so-called Caja Chica case, related to alleged irregular financing in the 2023 presidential campaign, continues.
The decision directly impacts the electoral landscape, making it more difficult for the movement, considered the main opposition force, to participate in the local elections, which have been brought forward to November 29 of this year.
Former President Rafael Correa (2007-2017), founder and leader of the RC party, reacted to the new court ruling on his Twitter account, writing: “Shameless! There is no law for what they are doing. Furthermore, it violates every democratic principle and even common sense.”
Previously, the RC had asked the TCE to revoke the temporary suspension for nine months, alleging irregularities in the process.
His lawyer, Gabriel Rivera, argued that the document that led to the suspension was not submitted by the attorney general, as required by the regulations.
“The prosecutor has responded to us (…) saying that the Prosecutor’s Office has not sent that document to the TCE,” Rivera stated, who also cited a report from the Financial and Economic Analysis Unit (UAFE) that, according to the defense, rules out the movement’s responsibility in the handling of illicit resources.
However, the court considered that the tax investigation is still ongoing, which prevents the lifting of the provisional sanction.
Given this scenario, the RC announced that it will field candidates in alliance with other political organizations for the November elections, when prefects, mayors, councilors, and other local authorities will be elected.
