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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: February 5th, 2025

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  • I wouldn’t bet on investors being confident on western markets.

    Oil is now an unsafe investment, as it can change in a matter of seconds because of random tweets or missiles. It makes sense for investors to use the short “ceasefire” to sell it and move to safer investments like companies stocks.

    In doing that, they know Eastern markets are heavily dependent on oil from west Asia, because of the type of oil and probably also the distance to their main customers. Western companies depend on a different type of oil, the one the US produces, and they have stronger internal markets so they rely on shipments way less.

    Companies are also going to increase profits thanks to customers’ inflation expectations… In general, whenever oil prices increase even temporarily, consumers are going to spend more, and than money is going somewhere, probably to profits.





  • Tbh it could just be that the dems are doing a China move: do nothing and win

    Right now trump can either reference Biden, knowing people are sick of that, or he simply doesn’t have a definite target, “the radical left”. An emerging leader of the centre would give him a target. So it makes sense they stay quiet.

    I’m not a us citizen tho, I know that there is a lot of political activism, especially around the DSA, and the recent big protests are good signs. What I expect is that whoever ends up being the democratic leader will have a very hard time being a centrist. The demo-socialists have a big chance, but corporate media is also going to play its role in supporting a rethoric of “now that we’ve seen crazy let’s go for someone respectable, not another crazy”.

    The opposition, in the wide sense, is basically Sanders and the DSA, in my view, because they are popular and they are winning some local elections, including NY. But I still doubt they are going to be the face of the dem strategy for 2028, let alone the midterms.






  • Diciamo che sempre se una coalizione ha abbastanza voti in parlamento da esprimere un premier, allora ha la maggioranza assoluta e può esprimere un presidente della repubblica.

    Non è così facile perché il voto è segreto e in esso hanno luogo molti intrighi politici. Ma tecnicamente anche il governo di oggi avrebbe i numeri, pur essendo un parlamento da Rosatellum.

    Inoltre la legge elettorale non è una legge costituzionale, l’emanazione è espressione di parlamento e firma del presidente della repubblica. Non ci sarà un referendum.

    La novità della legge è un sistema senza collegi uninominali, e che il premio di maggioranza va a una coalizione che supera il 40% dei voti espressi, oppure vince un ballottaggio tra le (due) coalizioni che superano il 35%.


  • TL;DR: companies used the grace period from Jan to July 2025 to stockpile, and started importing from countries with lower tariffs. The total cost was 1000$ per US household, with early figures in 2026 showing an increase.

    The article focuses on the US, it does not factor in the negotiations happening between middle countries and the new south-south economic agreements.


  • For sports, we spend all our lives saying that victory is not the goal of sport, then we separate by gender so victory feels fair

    I also think we should not separate by gender, and instead have multiple tiers of experience at the Olympics.

    But there is some truth on those who argue that having women’s sport encourages women to play sports in general, as less women play sports than men (I think). Even if there was no measurable general difference between the biological sexes, males would still generally outperform just out of statistics, because there is more of them.

    So the deal is actually cultural. Society needs to abandon the idea that gender has anything to do with sports. Just like we do for skin color or height. So that when a girl sees a football match with 18 men, 3 women and 1 nonbinary, she doesn’t feel like football isn’t for her out of gender.

    Like, I myself like volleyball, but all throughout my experience I’ve noticed how I had to struggle far more than my peers simply because I was short and physically weak (struggles eating during teenage). I also did Judo for a bit, there are tiers by weight, meaning I competed with 10yo children as a 14yo. What I mean is that while I can agree a child would notice differences out of gender, it’s not like this is something new, acknowledging physical differences and accepting them is a key part of personal growth in sports already, gender would be just yet another element.





  • Concordo che il referendum non era necessario né gradito, per un motivo più generale: i cambiamenti alla costituzione dovrebbero essere fatti in modo congiunto tra maggioranza e opposizione, quindi senza dover passare dal referendum, e al massimo il voto popolare dovrebbe servire a smascherare una opposizione non collaborativa per principio, non essere usato come termometro politico

    Però la consolazione c’è, molte regioni hanno mostrato che il loro eventuale supporto alla destra alle politiche o è ormai caduto o dipende dal disinteresse per i partiti di sinistra. Questo fa ben sperare, esiste un vuoto politico da colmare con un campo progressista unito.



  • La mia speranza è che il combinato disposto di: gioventù avvicinata dalla politica dai temi ambientali e Palestina, ed effetti della politica estera americana, abbia riacceso un bel po’ di Paese a farsi sentire

    Tra l’altro si registra un No compatto dagli elettori PD, in contrasto con le posizioni pubbliche di un po’ di esponenti anti-schlein, che fa ben sperare sulla costruzione del campo progressista

    Ora il dubbio mi pare la legge elettorale e le mosse dei Berlusconi, che a mio avviso cominceranno a lavorare per un futuro governo centrista