Fate of 38: General Election Preview
What Is The Path To Victory?
The race for the open 38th State Senate seat is a three-way contest between current 108th District State Rep. Republican Dave Prestin, Delta County Commission Vice-Chair Democrat Kelli Van Ginhoven, and former 109th District State Rep. Sara Cambensy, who is running as an Independent. This contest will be one of the most unique in Michigan because three credible candidates can appeal to voters across the district, which spans nearly 16,000 miles and crosses all fifteen counties. Anyone can win a county with less than 40% of the total vote.
Sparks flew in forums and debates where all three candidates have participated over data centers, mining projects, education funding, car insurance premiums, and health care costs, the most common issues at the top of Yoopers’ minds.
Voting Breakdown
Dave Prestin won a competitive primary by running up the score in his native state house district in the central and eastern U.P. (Chippewa, Delta, Luce, Mackinac, Menominee, and Schoolcraft). Van Ginhoven hails from that same region and could appeal to the same voters. This opens the door for Cambensy, who represented Luce and Schoolcraft counties in the state house from 2017–2022 and could make a strong showing in this region.
The western U.P. (specifically the 110th State House District) could be the bellwether, as it has become increasingly conservative over the last decade and a half, yet was one of the state’s strongest Democratic regions for decades before. Both Cambensy and Van Ginhoven are targeting Gogebic, Houghton, Ontonagon, and Iron counties, where Beau LaFave got more votes than Prestin in the primary. Prestin himself has made numerous trips over the last few weeks of the campaign hoping to improve his margins. Each house district represents about a third of the total voters, whoever wins the most districts will come out on top.
Cambensy’s Path?
For an independent candidate like Cambensy to win, she needs to win her old district (Alger, Luce, Marquette, and Schoolcraft counties) in a landslide while also garnering votes in areas she has not previously represented. Marquette County, which accounts for 24% of the district’s total registered voters, is Cambensy’s home base, and she won the county by over 60% in each of her three campaigns for state rep. Its strong Democratic heritage should benefit Van Ginhoven, but many of these voters have voted for Sara Cambensy multiple times over the last decade and a half.
Straight Ticket Voting
A data point to watch is straight-ticket voting: in the 2024 presidential election, each U.P. county had over 10% of voters select the straight-party box. Cambensy can still get voters who vote for other Democrats or Republicans, but they will need to fill the oval next to her name for the 38th Senate seat, going against what many voters are accustomed to the straight-ticket option. More Republicans vote straight party than Democrats and these numbers will be a telling tale how competitive Cambensy will be.
Percentage of Voters Who Vote Straight Democratic
Alger 16%
Baraga 19%
Chippewa 17%
Delta 16%
Dickinson 16%
Gogebic 17%
Houghton 18%
Iron 16%
Keweenaw 16%
Luce N/A
Mackinac 17%
Marquette 28%
Menominee 17%
Ontonagon 15%
Schoolcraft 15%
Percentage of Voters Who Vote Straight Republican
Alger 27%
Baraga 38%
Chippewa 31%
Delta 33%
Dickinson 37%
Gogebic 27%
Houghton 28%
Iron 31%
Keweenaw 25%
Luce N/A
Mackinac 32%
Marquette 21%
Menominee 35%
Ontonagon 31%
Schoolcraft 34%
What To Watch On Election Night
-Can Prestin run up the score in the southern and eastern U.P. as he did in the primary, which could put him in the lead large enough to win with the others splitting the vote.
-Can Cambensy get a majority within her old state house district of Alger, Luce, Marquette, and Schoolcraft counties? Honestly, she probably needs a supermajority in these areas; otherwise, it’s hard to see a path forward.
-Can Van Ginhoven perform better in Democratic areas where Cambensy would need to run strong, specifically the central and western U.P., which had been staunchly Democratic territory? If she can’t get a majority, it’s hard to see a path for her.
-What is the percentage of voters are voting straight ticket? For Cambensy to win, there needs to be a drastic decrease in straight ticket party voters which could increase the likelyhood of voters choosing her.
Conclusion
As we enter the homestretch of the campaign, this race is a good barometer for several reasons. First, Prestin could benefit from Cambensy and Van Ginhoven splitting the vote, potentially allowing a sweep of all fifteen counties in what would otherwise be a good Democratic year. Cambensy will test the viability of a third party in rural Michigan, where voters will tell you they don’t like either party but will still go to the polls and vote for one, while Ginhoven hopes to ride a large blue wave that seems to be forming nationwide.
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The next senator for the 38th District will be sworn in at an important time in U.P. history. Multiple mining projects are being proposed and could get off the ground within the next couple of years. Communities are trying to attract employment outside of the booming tourism industry. After November 4th, the winner will have to use the energy and enthusiasm they used on the campaign trail to be a salesman (or woman) for the area and try to take advantage of the changing economy.
If you enjoy reading about U.P. Politics take a look at past articles about northern Michigan’s premier battleground seat, the 109th District and the 38th State Senate seat and other analysis of the area.
Marquette Area Public Schools Bond Proposal
Fate of 38
- Special Edition: FOOD FIGHT
- Filing Frenzy
- GOP Showdown
- History Part One “110% U.P.”
- History Part Two “Blue to Red”
- Primary Recap
Articles from Battleground 109 Series-2025
From 2024
- Primary Premier
- Primary Review
- Democratic Domination and the Godfather
- Trumpamania and a Special Election
- Epic Election
- Bohnak’s Breakthrough and the Republican Renaissance
From 2022
