The fossil fuel economy is finished.
The only question is whether it manages to drag a lot of human civilization into it’s grave
The fossil fuel economy is finished.
The only question is whether it manages to drag a lot of human civilization into it’s grave
In theory yes. But while fracking is a more short-term activity, developing an oil field, let alone sub-sea oil fields is a very capital-intensive and time-consuming endeavour. It is possible that, due to the rapid transition to renewables, the time horizon that is left for earning with such developments, is not large enough to take the risk. Especially since the oil fields in the gulf states, which were already profitable, will be re-opened within a few years.
One can dream, but I’m pessimistic and see enough demand for a long while. Can’t even fully stop using coal yet.
Industrial developments typically have life times of twenty years. This is far longer than the time scale of the transition we can expect.
Also, the transition will be messy, not nice and tidy. In Germany, renewables have replaced nuclear first, only now they are replacing coal. The order might be different in the US, but then again things will become chaotic if due to cutting red tape a nuclear disaster happens in the US.
Things in the US will also be accelerated by the need to provide more power for AC in heat waves. That can go from an seemingly academic discussion to a question that is realized to be life-or-death quickly.
In Africa, solar panels are replacing firewood.
In Asia, countries are returning now to using coal as an emergency measure - but people know that this is only a temporary emergency solution.
South Asia also urgently needs power for AC, even more than the US.
China still builds coal plants, but they are designed as a fall-back to wind and solar, not as the backbone of supply. Which makes sense for them, because China has more coal than oil.