Tiananmen Square protests of 1989

自近现代以来，西方人提出了四样影响人类历史发展最为深远的政治学发明。第一个即是主权国家，它诞生于1648年的欧洲三十年战争以及在此之后的威斯特伐利亚和约，他使得国家之间的外交与疆界被基于国际法之形式而受到法律性的认可。第二个即是民族主义，它诞生于拿破仑战争前后，并见证了拿破仑将王冠待在头顶而非教皇之手，成为了法国人自己的皇帝而非其他的欧洲贵族或者君主。他使得国家的民众基于“想象的共同体”而成为一个国族下的集体，并演化为民族国家的阶段。第三个即是共产主义，它诞生于马克思和恩格斯的理论，他将剩余价值理论 资本主义总崩溃 无产阶级专政等指导具象化，并在20世纪达到顶点后已经逐渐式微。第四个即是帝国主义。在本文中，笔者我将来论述新帝国主义是如何成为并最终成为资本主义的顶点，并深刻影响我们的今天以及未来。
在1850年以前，古典资本主义正逐渐趋于成熟。彼时的世界也处在维多利亚时代之后的大变革中，自由贸易与经济上的自由放任尚在大行其道。与此同时，伴随着资本主义发展而越来越迫切的核心矛盾——生产过剩的问题接踵而来。在古典资本主义中，如果一个国家想要实现工业化和资本主义的积累，就必然也只能通过三条道路：殖民扩张 殖民掠夺与工农业剪刀差。在英国，由于对羊毛的需求，大量的贵族和地主霸占了农民的土地来养羊，使得无家可归的破产流浪汉农民进入了工厂中，成为了流水线的一员。这即是著名的圈地运动，也正是通过工农业剪刀差来实现资本的积累。而在美国，大量的殖民者为了探求西部地区的海量财富与矿藏。前往淘金，开始了西进运动。但事物总有曲折之时，随着瓜分非洲逐渐进入尾声与德意志 意大利的统一，日本明治维新的成功，资本主义列强已经无力再通过殖民扩张 殖民掠夺与工农业剪刀差三者再进行资本主义的积累了。于是，古典资本主义开始迎来了他不可避免的矛盾，世界的洗牌也由此开始了。
列宁将帝国主义描述为“资本主义的最终阶段”，并将帝国主义视为资本主义矛盾的必然。于是，帝国主义开始了他在19世纪后半段的辉煌时代，一个个殖民地在帝国的火炮轰鸣中被建成，并将财富源源不断的送来，给殖民地们带来“文明开化的福音”。他成为了世界主要国家的最终道路，使得资本主义以世界霸权的形式建立出大资本联合和国际对抗。最终，在20世纪两次危险的世界大战中，以开辟殖民地和“钢铁与大炮”武力征服式的帝国主义迎来了他的末路，人类也从殖民帝国时代转变为意识形态交锋的新时代。
1848年，马克思发表了影响后世百年的共产党宣言，他大言不惭地说到，哪怕东伦敦最贫苦的工人，一想到大英帝国的辉煌，也会骄傲的挺起胸膛。然而他刻意忽略了一个事实：彼时伦敦的工人薪资水平远高于其他欧洲国家，所以他们挺起胸膛，本就是应该且合理的。在随后的时光中，随着后冷战时代以来反殖民主义的出现与西方工人运动的日益成熟，社会主义和西方马克思主义的巨大发展，合作与平等化取代了斗争。在此过程中，欧洲与日本走向了社会民主主义的道路——通过议会斗争 工会运动与改良社会主义，来达成通向共产主义的最终桥梁。而在美国与英国，里根与撒切尔却选择了新自由主义——这是一种提倡自由资本主义与私有化的模式，并主张政府削除和减少除必要开支和部分公共事业的其他开支。于是，基于全球化的资本主义世界也一直走在繁荣道路上，西方世界的工人与左翼也心安理得的选择了满足现状。
如果说，过去19世纪的旧的帝国主义，是服务于殖民掠夺和资本扩张的选择，那么21世纪的新帝国主义，即是列强国家对弱国的基于政治 经济乃至文化的多重扩张与“再征服”，他将不再是军事和武力性的，而是基于现代资本主义的最终结果。2008年的金融危机，打破了这个寂静。它似乎警醒着人们，安逸永远只能是一时。在东方，中国正在急不可耐的飞速攀升，实现了30年时间GDP增长29.76倍的奇迹。而在美国，作为资本主义世界的顶点，美国的GDP增速却是主要发达国家中最快的。在第四次信息技术革命中，全世界的前二十互联网产业中，十个在美国，另外十个在中国，而欧洲和日本却一个没有；在世界主要高端制造业中，欧洲和日本也在不断丧失着原本的优势。显然，对于欧洲和日本来说，他们享受社会红利的普通劳工和中国的劳工是零和博弈的关系——因为产业的竞争，而造就的国际分工体系的竞争，欧洲的无产阶级显然也不会去和时刻和他们竞争的中国劳工互称无产阶级好兄弟。如果说2016年中国的一带一路，最核心之处是希望通过输出生产过剩的产品和基础建设来对亚洲和非洲穷国的经济殖民，那么中美贸易战更是新帝国主义竞争的开始。在此过程中，中国的根本矛盾已经演变为大资本家与红色贵族之间的矛盾，而这也将是威权资本主义的末路。也许再过数年，我们都将看到第二次冷战的到来，以及一个新帝国主义 自由资本主义 有限民主且保守自由主义的中国与美利坚合众国的新两极世界。
从欧洲难民危机，到日元贬值 法国大革命2.0 AI革命在美国的爆发 特朗普的胜选 欧洲关税抬升 中国在新能源汽车 电子支付 无人驾驶的大幅进步，新帝国主义正以翻天覆地的姿态，冲击着这个世界。在现代资本主义下，由于解决生产过剩方式的多样，生产过剩作为资本主义的核心危机的破坏力正在被逐步地遏止，而传统社会民主主义下的产业升级与进步却反而成为了一种阻力。我们不妨假设一下——在过去，中国的汽车制造业和相关产业技术并不先进，可能占据了世界骑车产业份额的20%，而中国的汽车工人也许是每天996且只有月薪三千RMB的。而到今天，假如因为新能源技术的出现实现了汽车制造的升级，那么它就会占据世界汽车产业份额的40%，而由于中国通过“有形的手”压低了劳工成本，中国劳工也许就会变成月薪四千RMB。尽管这样看，中国的贫富差距客观上被拉大了，中国的资本家获得了更多但工人拿的更少，但是中国的工人由于诉求更小和较低的社会能量，使得中国的资本家能更加“肆无忌惮”的推动新技术乃至运用新技术的扩大再生产，而这放在传统欧洲国家是阻力非常巨大的——因为新技术使用导致成本抬升和大量失业者最终造成工会与罢工者的反对造就游行与利润的降低，最终使得新技术的推行难以为继。两百年前，马克思在资本论描述中国时，他是这样描述的“当未来有一天，欧洲的资本家和贵族们因为无产阶级革命而逃亡时，他们会来到遥远的东方，然后他们抬头时，会惊讶的看到上面赫然写着：中华共和国，平等自由博爱”，在马克思看来，中国显然是未来资本主义世界的顶点。但或许马克思没有想到的是，两百年后的今天，在欧洲的已经实现的社会主义灯塔下，无产阶级和工人农民们正惊恐且害怕的看着一个这样的庞然大物：他的左手拿着华为 比亚迪等红色资本，右手拿着一把巨型左轮，身后是处在无休止工作中的河南农民工 东莞和深圳的流水线工人 上海的外卖员组成的累累白骨，正一步一步地走来，就如同1840年的英国人来到中国那样，要将世界砸碎。
20世纪末的社会主义与共产主义的红色余晖已经日渐黄昏，属于民族主义与新帝国主义的白太阳即将冉冉升起。左翼乃至全世界的泛左正在这场挑战中退场，在这个紧张却又充满变数的21世纪，是无产阶级的胜利，是新帝国主义的时代，亦或是社会主义改良的新道路？我们敬请期待。

Since modern times, Westerners have proposed four political inventions that have had the most profound impact on the development of human history. The first is the sovereign state, which was born in the Thirty Years' War in Europe in 1648 and the subsequent Peace of Westphalia. It made the diplomacy and boundaries between countries legally legal based on the form of international law. recognition. The second is nationalism, which was born before and after the Napoleonic Wars and saw Napoleon put the crown on his head instead of the hands of the Pope, and became the French's own emperor instead of other European nobles or monarchs. He made the people of the country become a collective under the nation based on the "imagined community" and evolved into the stage of a nation-state. The third is communism, which was born from the theories of Marx and Engels. He concretized the guidance of the theory of surplus value, the total collapse of capitalism, and the dictatorship of the proletariat. It has gradually declined since it reached its peak in the 20th century. The fourth is imperialism. In this article, the author will discuss how neo-imperialism became and eventually became the culmination of capitalism, profoundly affecting our present and future.
Before 1850, classical capitalism was gradually maturing. At that time, the world was also undergoing great changes after the Victorian era, and free trade and economic laissez-faire were still prevalent. At the same time, the core contradiction that has become increasingly urgent with the development of capitalism—the problem of overproduction—has emerged one after another. In classical capitalism, if a country wants to achieve industrialization and capitalist accumulation, it must and can only take three paths: colonial expansion, colonial plunder, and industrial and agricultural scissors. In Britain, due to the demand for wool, a large number of nobles and landowners occupied farmers' land to raise sheep, causing homeless and bankrupt tramp farmers to enter factories and become members of the assembly line. This is the famous enclosure movement, and it is through the scissor gap between industry and agriculture that capital accumulation is achieved. In the United States, a large number of colonists sought to explore the vast wealth and mineral deposits in the western region. Go to gold mining and start the westward movement. But things always have twists and turns. With the carving up of Africa gradually coming to an end, the unification of Germany and Italy, and the success of Japan's Meiji Restoration, the capitalist powers are no longer able to carry out capitalist accumulation through colonial expansion, colonial plunder, and industrial and agricultural scissors. . As a result, classical capitalism began to face its inevitable contradictions, and the reshuffle of the world began.
Lenin described imperialism as “the final stage of capitalism” and viewed imperialism as a necessary contradiction of capitalism. Thus, imperialism began its glorious era in the second half of the 19th century. Colonies were built one after another amidst the roar of imperial artillery, and wealth was continuously sent to the colonies, bringing "the gospel of civilization and enlightenment" to the colonies. He became the ultimate path for the world's major countries, allowing capitalism to establish large capital alliances and international confrontation in the form of world hegemony. Finally, during the two dangerous world wars of the 20th century, imperialism, which relied on colonization and "steel and cannon" force conquest, came to an end. Humanity also transitioned from the era of colonial empires to a new era of ideological confrontation.
In 1848, Marx published the Communist Manifesto, which influenced subsequent generations for a hundred years. He boldly said that even the poorest workers in East London would puff up their chests with pride when they think of the glory of the British Empire. However, he deliberately ignored the fact that at that time, the wages of workers in London were much higher than those in other European countries, so it was reasonable and reasonable for them to stand up. In the subsequent years, with the emergence of anti-colonialism since the post-Cold War era and the increasing maturity of the Western labor movement, and the tremendous development of socialism and Western Marxism, cooperation and equalization have replaced struggle. In the process, Europe and Japan took the path of social democracy - through parliamentary struggle, trade union movements and reform socialism, to reach the final bridge to communism. In the United States and the United Kingdom, Reagan and Thatcher chose neoliberalism, a model that advocates liberal capitalism and privatization, and advocates cutting and reducing government expenditures except for necessary expenditures and some public utilities. As a result, the capitalist world based on globalization has been on the road to prosperity, and workers and the left in the Western world have chosen to be content with the status quo.
If the old imperialism of the 19th century was a choice that served colonial plunder and capital expansion, then the new imperialism of the 21st century is the multiple expansion and "renewal" of powerful countries based on political economy and even culture against weak countries. Conquest" will no longer be military and forceful, but will be based on the end result of modern capitalism. The financial crisis of 2008 broke this silence. It seems to remind people that comfort can only be temporary. In the East, China is climbing rapidly, achieving a miracle of GDP growth of 29.76 times in 30 years. In the United States, as the pinnacle of the capitalist world, the GDP growth rate of the United States is the fastest among major developed countries. In the fourth information technology revolution, among the top twenty Internet industries in the world, ten are in the United States and the other ten are in China, but none in Europe and Japan; among the world's major high-end manufacturing industries, Europe and Japan are also It is constantly losing its original advantages. Obviously, for Europe and Japan, the relationship between ordinary workers who enjoy social dividends and Chinese workers is a zero-sum game - because of industrial competition, the competition in the international division of labor system created, the European proletariat obviously will not They call each other proletarian good brothers with the Chinese workers who compete with them all the time. If the core of China’s One Belt, One Road initiative in 2016 is to economically colonize poor countries in Asia and Africa by exporting overproduced products and infrastructure, then the Sino-US trade war is the beginning of a new imperialist competition. In this process, the fundamental contradiction in China has evolved into the contradiction between big capitalists and the red aristocracy, and this will also be the end of authoritarian capitalism. Perhaps in a few years we will all see the advent of the Second Cold War and a new bipolar world of neo-imperialism, liberal capitalism, limited democracy and conservative liberalism, China and the United States of America.
From the European refugee crisis to the depreciation of the Japanese yen, the French Revolution 2.0, the outbreak of the AI ​​revolution in the United States, Trump’s victory, rising European tariffs, and China’s substantial progress in new energy vehicles, electronic payment, and autonomous driving, new imperialism is taking an earth-shaking attitude. Impacting the world. Under modern capitalism, due to the various ways to solve overproduction, the destructive power of overproduction, the core crisis of capitalism, is gradually being contained. However, industrial upgrading and progress under traditional social democracy have become a kind of resistance. We might as well assume that in the past, China's automobile manufacturing and related industries were not technologically advanced and may have accounted for 20% of the world's cycling industry. China's automobile workers may need work 6 days a week and only have a monthly salary of 3,000 RMB. . Today, if automobile manufacturing is upgraded due to the emergence of new energy technology, it will account for 40% of the world's automobile industry. And because China has lowered labor costs through its "visible hand", Chinese workers may It turns into a monthly salary of 4,000 RMB. Although viewed this way, the gap between China's rich and poor has objectively widened. China's capitalists have gained more but workers have received less. However, China's workers have smaller demands and lower social energy, allowing China's capitalists to A more "unscrupulous" promotion of new technologies and even the use of new technologies to expand reproduction, which is a huge resistance in traditional European countries - because the use of new technologies leads to rising costs and a large number of unemployed people, which ultimately leads to opposition from labor unions and strikers. Parades and reduced profits eventually made the implementation of new technologies unsustainable. Two hundred years ago, when Marx described China in Capital, he described it like this: “When one day in the future, European capitalists and aristocrats flee because of the proletarian revolution, they will come to the far east, and then when they look up, You will be surprised to see that it clearly says: Republic of China, Equality, Liberty and Fraternity. In Marx's view, China is obviously the pinnacle of the future capitalist world. But perhaps what Marx did not expect was that today, two hundred years later, under the beacon of socialism that has been realized in Europe, the proletariat, workers and farmers are looking at such a behemoth with horror and fear: holding a Huawei BYD in his left hand Waiting for Red Capital, holding a giant revolver in his right hand, behind him are the skeletons of migrant workers from Henan, Dongguan, assembly line workers from Shenzhen, and takeaways from Shanghai who are working endlessly, walking step by step, just like in 1840 The British came to China and wanted to smash the world to pieces.
The red afterglow of socialism and communism at the end of the 20th century has faded, and the white sun of nationalism and new imperialism is about to rise. The left and even the pan-left around the world are retreating from this challenge. In this tense but uncertain 21st century, is it the victory of the proletariat, the era of new imperialism, or a new path of socialist reform? We stay tuned.