00:00No landfalling storms along the United States for the next week to 10 days, but the window
00:08opens for landfalling storms later this month.
00:13Thanks for watching the forecast feed.
00:15Again, we're going to concentrate on the tropics here.
00:18I want to begin with this.
00:21We are in the heart of the hurricane season, but I don't see any opportunity for any storms
00:26to make landfall in the next week.
00:28The window is opening.
00:29September 28th to October 6th.
00:31Now, we are well away from any landfalling system.
00:35However, if we would get something to form during this time frame, I think it's most
00:41likely Florida.
00:42That's the area where we really, I think, have to concentrate moving forward here.
00:47Now, there's a reason for this.
00:49I want to show you what's going on.
00:51First, I want to show you the Atlantic.
00:53Why are we having so many problems getting tropical systems to form?
00:58It's all because of one thing.
01:00It's called Windshear.
01:02I want to show you this product here.
01:03So, what the feed does is takes all of the bottles that I'm looking at, and I want to
01:09show it to you and give you the reason for our rationale.
01:12Now, this is a Windshear product.
01:14Pretty easy to read.
01:15Wherever you see the reds and the yellows or any coloring, you have Windshear.
01:19The darker the colors, the stronger the Windshear.
01:21Now, here's our bearings.
01:22This is Florida and the Gulf Coast.
01:25So, here's the east coast of the United States.
01:27Here's the east coast of Africa.
01:29This is the Windshear today.
01:31Look at all of the red, yellows, and oranges across the tropical Atlantic.
01:35Now, you do have little windows where you don't have any coloring, but for the most part,
01:40anything that comes across the Atlantic is going to be dealing with Windshear.
01:44This is what it looks like today.
01:46How about early next week?
01:47Any change?
01:48Not really.
01:49All of this, and again, west coast of Africa.
01:52Here's Florida.
01:53Here are the lesser Antilles.
01:56This whole area in the Atlantic, Windshear.
02:01You see where you don't see any coloring?
02:03Northwest Caribbean, right in here.
02:05You see that?
02:06Okay, let's go forward.
02:08Let's go to next week.
02:09Let's go to a week from now.
02:10What do you see?
02:11You see pockets of Windshear in the tropical Atlantic.
02:14Where don't you see it?
02:16Northwest Caribbean.
02:17The other thing of note is that the northern Gulf constantly has Windshear.
02:23Now, that's one of the reasons why we're not too concerned about the United States early this month.
02:29How about the upper air pattern?
02:30Let me go to early next week.
02:32What are you looking at here?
02:33Dipping the jet stream in here.
02:35You see that?
02:35That means you have westerly wind.
02:37So anything that would form in the Atlantic, out to sea.
02:40Anything that would form in the Caribbean, out to sea.
02:44Too much westerly windshear.
02:45But watch how this pattern changed later in the month.
02:48You'll see it right in here.
02:49Right here.
02:50Uh-oh.
02:51You see, by Monday the 29th, our dip in the jet stream farther west.
02:56Right in here.
02:58And now your steering flow comes in out of the south-southeast.
03:02So anything that forms would form in here.
03:06Now you have a window to come toward Florida and the Gulf.
03:11I think Florida would be the most likely landing spot.
03:13So the question is, can we get anything to form in this area the latter half of the month?
03:19And I think the question is yes.
03:21Because of that wind shear lessening a little bit, I want to show you this graphic right in here as I go forward here.
03:28Watch this.
03:29This is this tropical wave that we've been talking about over the last couple of days.
03:34Now, do not expect any development with this the next couple of days.
03:38In fact, let's track it right here.
03:41Now, this weekend, nothing.
03:43The question is, is there anything left?
03:47Anything left?
03:48And if there is, as it gets into the Caribbean early next week, it gets into that area of low wind shear later this, later next week, later in the month, we know the steering flow starts coming out of the west-southwest.
04:02I'm telling you, we have a low probability for development in this area.
04:06However, however, we're going to have to keep an eye on this.
04:11We can also see the southwest Atlantic.
04:13Anything that forms in this area is directed where?
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