Breaking down the forecast for Melissa and a damaging East Coast storm

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Geoff Cornish takes a look at the latest on Tropical Storm Melissa and a possible East Coast storm in the last week of October.

Transcript

00:00Melissa and another damaging East Coast storm, and they're related to each other.

00:08And that's the story on the feed today.

00:11What's always fascinating about the weather is how everything is connected.

00:15Every little push here, there's a counter push.

00:18And Melissa is going to be impacted by our storm in Texas,

00:22and that storm in Texas is going to be impacted by a storm in the Northwest.

00:27Amazing, isn't it?

00:28All right, let's take a look at this right now on the satellite picture here.

00:32Here is Melissa down here.

00:34And again, the ending game for Melissa is going to be determined by some part by this storm across the Plains states.

00:43And this storm will then be impacted by this storm in the Northwest.

00:48And this storm in the Northwest may really intensify this storm as it gets toward the East Coast as we head into the week.

00:57So a lot going on right now.

00:59I do want to start early next week.

01:02I want to end with Melissa or begin with Melissa just a little bit,

01:06just so you see that the end game is still a little up in the air.

01:09A lot of the end game up in the air because the center of circulation is jumping around a little bit.

01:15I want to show you some of the modeling.

01:16We're going to look at the American, the European, the Canadian, and the British model.

01:21Four models all have different solutions with Melissa and to some extent our coastal storm as we head in the middle part of this week.

01:30Let's begin on Monday.

01:32This is the American model.

01:33This has always been the outlier.

01:34This is Melissa, and then this dip in the jet stream coming eastward, this dip in the jet stream will determine where Melissa goes.

01:43All right, this is the American model.

01:45Look where it is on Monday.

01:47What does it do?

01:48It continues to take Melissa.

01:50This is the best case scenario, at least for Jamaica.

01:53Not so for Haiti and the Republic, but this takes the storm well to the East.

01:59You see that?

02:00And then out to sea.

02:01That's the American model.

02:03Let's take a look at the European.

02:05Same time frame.

02:06We'll take a look at this on Monday.

02:08Slower, much slower.

02:10Look at the difference.

02:11There's the American, the European, south of Jamaica.

02:14This is not a good situation for Jamaica, but you can see how it goes northward.

02:20There it goes, and then out to sea.

02:22What steers the storm, that dip in the jet stream coming across the southeast?

02:27That steers Melissa, the European, out to sea.

02:30Look at the differences.

02:31Wednesday evening, American, way up east of Bermuda.

02:36The European still moving over Jamaica.

02:39All right, let's take a look at the Canadian model.

02:43Same story here.

02:44Monday morning, not that much different than European.

02:46European, Canadian.

02:48European, Canadian.

02:49European, Canadian.

02:50Not much difference.

02:51The Canadian model, west, southwest.

02:54A little farther east.

02:56Missing Florida to the east.

02:58You see that?

02:59All right.

03:00Why is it different?

03:01It's because of that dip in the jet stream.

03:03Look at the dip in the jet stream on the Canadian.

03:06There it is across eastern Oklahoma.

03:08Where does the European have it?

03:09Way to the east.

03:11So as a result, that dip in the jet stream farther east kicks Melissa off to the east.

03:17The Canadian says, no.

03:19Dip in the jet stream is west.

03:21So the storm comes west.

03:23The other outlier is the British model.

03:26Take a look at this.

03:28You don't even see Melissa on here.

03:30Let's go to Tuesday.

03:31Here's Melissa way down here.

03:33Weak.

03:34I don't think this is right.

03:35But it does show you it's a lot farther west.

03:38And the other thing you're going to see is this dip in the jet stream also farther west.

03:43So as a result, as we play the British, here comes Melissa.

03:47Here's Melissa.

03:49Here's the dip in the jet stream.

03:51This is a dangerous scenario for Florida.

03:54That's why Florida is still in.

03:56Now, this dip in the jet stream also helps lead to our coastal storm this weekend.

04:03Now, this is a dangerous scenario for the east coast because of this.

04:08Take a look at this.

04:09These beach areas from the Outer Banks of North Carolina all the way up toward the Jersey Shore

04:15are already compromised here.

04:17Take a look at some of this video that we've seen over the last couple of weeks

04:21in cities like beach communities like Strathmere and Avalon.

04:25There is no beach left.

04:27And remember, those dunes protect the houses away from the ocean, from the water, from the Atlantic.

04:36They're already compromised.

04:38So if there's going to be another storm that goes into this area, back to the graphic,

04:43this is going to cause major problems.

04:45We've already seen it in the Outer Banks.

04:48And I'll tell you what, the Jersey Shore especially,

04:50but even Virginia Beach is compromised right now from all of the storms.

04:56Well, the concern we have is there is going to be a storm or at least a period of rain and wind

05:02along the east coast as we head into next week.

05:04Let's take a look at some of the modeling here.

05:07This is the GFS on Tuesday.

05:09Now, I'm going to stop this Wednesday morning.

05:11You have a big high here.

05:13Here's your storm.

05:14It's not all that strong, but look what's going on here.

05:17Easterly winds that would continue to cause a pounding from the Jersey Shore

05:24all the way down toward the Outer Banks, North Carolina.

05:27That's the American model.

05:29What does the European model have?

05:30More dangerous.

05:32Because look at the storm.

05:34It is stronger as it moves north.

05:37Look at how it intensifies here.

05:39This would be another nor'easter, especially for the Jersey Shore.

05:44And then up in the southeast of New England, look at the storm.

05:48Now, a little different than the American model, American-European, American-European.

05:53Look at Wednesday morning.

05:55The American-European, American-European, European stronger and farther to the west,

05:59but still shows the same story.

06:01How about the Canadian model?

06:03Same thing a little earlier with the storm, but notice what's going on.

06:07You still have a storm offshore.

06:09Look at that easterly wind into New Jersey.

06:13The UK met same thing early in the week.

06:16Rain and wind in the mid-Atlantic.

06:18I'm afraid this is going to be a problem for these beaches.

06:22Because no matter what you look at, there's different scenarios,

06:26but it looks to us here that we're going to have a storm

06:30that's going to form off the North Carolina coast.

06:33Here's your impact zone in red.

06:35Extensive beach erosion, coastal flooding, heavy rain threat,

06:39and across those areas that have already been inundated with previous storms.

06:45The message on the feed is this could be a huge, huge problem.

06:50See you next time.

07:07Stay free.

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