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00:00Are you ready for some football on a Thursday night live from South Florida?
00:05That's the Miami Dolphins.
00:06They're going to take on the Baltimore Ravens.
00:07Both of these teams technically record wise, Joe, not going anywhere.
00:11Now the prognosis for the Dolphins season is they aren't going anywhere,
00:14but the Baltimore Ravens getting healthy at the right time.
00:17And it coincides with the Pittsburgh Steelers losing streak,
00:20which gives them optimism on possibly winning their division.
00:23But tonight, Lamar Jackson back under center to take on Tula Tagovailoa and the spread, Joe.
00:28So minus eight and a half at the opening numbers, it's down to seven and a half.
00:31Still is a favorite towards the Baltimore Ravens.
00:33And a total, we're expecting points.
00:35That lookahead line, 48 and a half.
00:37Lamar is going to be the starter.
00:38Bumps up to 50 and a half and 51 and a half, depending on where you're shopping at, Joe.
00:42Let's start here with the game itself.
00:44Lamar Jackson is back.
00:45How are we feeling about the Ravens prospects?
00:49Well, I mean, listen, I think they got back on the right track last week.
00:52Certainly defensively, they had a good showing against the Chicago Bears.
00:58But the thing that's interesting to me here is I don't know what we're going to get from Lamar Jackson.
01:04I mean, is he, are they just taking, you know, just let him run around all day with a hamstring injury?
01:10He wasn't good enough to play, what, four days ago, Donnie?
01:13But somehow or another, he's 100% now in just a couple of more days rest with a hamstring.
01:19So I think they're going to have to rely on him either to drop back or it's going to be the Derrick Henry show here.
01:24And say what you want about the Dolphins.
01:27The Dolphins have had every reason to quit on this season, Donnie.
01:31And yet they have it.
01:33And they continue to fight and they continue to play hard.
01:37And they went in to Atlanta and took what, you know, should have been an Atlanta running them over type of situation and beat the snot out of them.
01:46So maybe there's a little something left in the tank here for the Miami Dolphins at home tonight.
01:52Here's what I'm trying to decide, Joe.
01:53And this is the always tough part about handicapping.
01:55We don't like surprises and we don't like hunch bets, right?
01:58Because if you can tell me that I'm getting Lamar Jackson, the MVP candidate back tonight, they should move up and down the field.
02:03I mean, the Ravens always do.
02:04When the Ravens are healthy on offense, which they are, that's 30 plus points.
02:07I don't care who they're actually playing.
02:08But am I getting the same Lamar Jackson that goes, all right, now we've got to worry about him running.
02:12And then if he does the read option, we've got to worry about, you know, Derrick Henry in the backfield.
02:16If he pulls it there, he's got wide receivers and dual set tight ends here.
02:19They can move it.
02:20But understand this about the Miami Dolphins.
02:22They open up the season on the road against the Colts.
02:23They lose 33 to 8.
02:25It was thought of at the time, like, oh my God, like Miami is horrible.
02:28Like the Colts beat you that bad.
02:29The Colts might be the best team in football right now as it stands.
02:32The reason I want to bring that up is they got hammered on the road by a good Colts team.
02:35Then they play the Patriots, 33-27.
02:38They lose, Joe, six-point margin.
02:39You play the Buffalo Bills on the road, one of the better teams in the NFL.
02:4231-21, 10-point margin, but you basically hung around.
02:45Then you beat the Jets.
02:46You lose to the Panthers, 27-23, three-point margin.
02:50You lose to the Chargers, 29-27, two-point margin.
02:53You play the Browns on the road in the freezing cold, rain coming down sideways,
02:58and it looked like they quit 31-6.
03:00But then you get them back in a domed scenario where they're used to.
03:02It's not cold outside.
03:04It's not windy, rainy.
03:05You pace the Falcons 34-10.
03:07So my question to you, Joe, is that we're talking about with the Dolphins.
03:10What are we actually getting out of the Dolphins tonight, right?
03:14And that's the big problem.
03:16And by the way, they announced Lamar, you know, we knew this, what, 48 hours ago?
03:21This line has not moved.
03:23This has been seven and a half forever, in fact.
03:27So Lamar is not getting the bump in the market like we thought it might.
03:32I thought for sure this would have gone to eight, eight and a half at this point, Donnie.
03:35But yet we are stuck here at seven, seven and a half, which is a very key number.
03:40And you nailed it.
03:41That was in a dome last week.
03:43And you know what?
03:44Now they're back home here.
03:45And it's not snowing.
03:46It's not going to be, you know, 20 degrees.
03:49They're going to be very comfortable here, the Dolphins.
03:52I think there's a little left in the tank with this team.
03:54And everyone's kind of dismissing it.
03:57Yeah, usually for me, like my modus operandi on Thursday night is actually you take the
04:03home team or no team, try to build a scenario around.
04:05You take the seven and a half points.
04:06If not, you go look for prop bets there.
04:08Early in the week with Lamar Jackson back, I'm like, yeah, Baltimore should thump Miami
04:11because they're a bad football team.
04:12But something sort of holds me back because, again, it's a short work week.
04:15And I just don't know what I'm getting out of Lamar Jackson.
04:17If Lamar had played against the Bears on Sunday and looked good and he's going to play again,
04:21like, OK, he's got a game under his belt.
04:22But you know as well as I do, when you're dealing with you got to win by over a touchdown,
04:26one simple pass can throw off your spread.
04:28Like, Donnie, what do you mean?
04:29He probably threw the ball 30 times.
04:30Hey, look at that.
04:31Say Flowers is wide open for a 65-yard touchdown, air mails him.
04:34You don't get that touchdown, it turns into a punt.
04:37That's a big deal with close to a double-digit spread, as you're probably going to be looking
04:40at towards game time.
04:41But if we focus, Joe, on the quarterbacks themselves, Tua Tagovailoa, 217.5 as a passing prop.
04:47Lamar Jackson, 233.5 as a passing prop.
04:50Lamar should be able to get that number.
04:52But again, we're dealing with a quarterback that's coming back off several weeks on a short
04:56work week this week when all you're looking to do as a Baltimore Raven is win this football
05:01game and go away.
05:02If I had a couple more games for Lamar Jackson, I'd be all in.
05:05And by the way, his touchdown prop to throw, Joe, is 1.5.
05:08But it's minus 178 towards the juice right now to throw those two touchdowns.
05:12I'm just having a hard time wrapping my head around, am I getting Lamar Jackson, I expect,
05:16or am I getting Lamar Jackson that goes, look, I'm healthy now, we just want to win and get
05:20out of town?
05:22Yeah, that to me is the million-dollar question.
05:25But again, I find it hard to believe that he wasn't healthy enough to play on Sunday,
05:30Donnie, against a much better, you know, record-wise and everything else, a team that comes
05:35in with, what, four straight wins, the Bears were rolling, and he wasn't good enough to
05:40play in that game.
05:41But he's four days later, somehow 100% with a hamstring injury to play against the Dolphins.
05:46I'm not buying it.
05:48I think he will be, A, I think there will be rust that you're going to have to deal with
05:52early on in this game.
05:54And B, if on the Ravens, I'm doing what I usually do.
05:57Just go ahead and run Derrick Henry, and let's see if the Dolphins can stop the run, and that'll
06:02open up the passing game later on.
06:05Yeah, it makes some sense, too, because the rushing yards is where you're going to key.
06:08And I do think Derrick Henry has a good performance, but also, you have to, like, Derrick Henry ran
06:12on Sunday, right?
06:13And now he's going to run on Thursday.
06:14And he's not exactly a 22-year-old running back.
06:17And also, the bigger picture is, do we run him into the ground, or do we give a little
06:20bit more handoffs there to Keaton Mitchell?
06:22But understand this, Lamar Jackson is listed at 35-and-a-half.
06:26This is either going to be a brilliant under, like, I knew he wasn't going to run four times,
06:3021 yards, and that's it, or it's one of those, like, oh, you guys don't think I'm healthy
06:34tonight, seven carries, 78 yards, and a touchdown for Lamar Jackson.
06:38How do we play the ground game focusing on Lamar Jackson?
06:41Is it, hey, the hamstring, it's a short week, or he's going to show you he can run early
06:45enough to even get 40 yards, and then maybe throttle down later in the game?
06:49I would, listen, I would not run.
06:51I certainly wouldn't have any design runs for him.
06:55He may have to scramble and get out of dodge a little bit, but for the most part, there
07:00is, I'm not scheduling him to be a running back in this game at all.
07:03I'm not calling any RPOs.
07:05I am just basically handing it off, or I'm dropping him back and let him, let him get
07:10into some rhythm and kind of get the feel back.
07:13And also, some really low numbers on those receiving props here.
07:16We'll get back to this game more in our number two, Thursday Night Football, but now it's time
07:20for NFL News and Notes coming up next on The Early Line.
07:23On Halloween Eve, Thursday Night Football, yes, we are going to certainly break that game
07:28down and much more, figuring out where Lamar Jackson is going to be.
07:30And also, Joe, it's Mischief Night here in the Northeast.
07:34By the way, where you grew up, again, in the Northeast, did you have Mischief Night?
07:38Did they call it that?
07:39Did you do anything the night before Halloween?
07:42We did, Donnie.
07:44I don't remember that we called it Mischief Night, but it was mostly like what we would
07:49have done on a Tuesday night, which is probably getting to a whole lot of trouble we shouldn't
07:52have been in, but we just did it dressed up.
07:55So it was the last chance of getting caught, Donnie.
07:58Yes, good times in the Northeast.
08:00I'm telling you, we loved Mischief Night here in southern New Jersey.
08:04By the way, Camden, New Jersey, just outside of Philadelphia, they called it Devil's Night.
08:08More to the, I guess you could say, eastern part of the state, it was called Mischief Night.
08:13Northern New Jersey, where we went to school, it's called Cabbage Night.
08:16I mean, what, Joe, Cabbage?
08:18Do you throw cabbage?
08:19Cabbage, like, never understood that one.
08:21Cabbage is scary enough, but I don't know that I'd name a night after it associating it
08:25with Halloween.
08:26So that's a strange one there, Donnie.
08:28That's a strange one.
08:30I'll tell you, Aiden Hutchinson could dress up as a bank today.
08:33Why?
08:33Because he made bank.
08:34Four years.
08:35180.
08:36141 guaranteed.
08:38The superstar edge rusher was paid, and rightfully so.
08:41Detroit looking to do big things this year, and maybe would have done it last year if
08:45the entire defense didn't get hurt, which included Aiden Hutchinson.
08:48But that's one of those things where sometimes you get a devastating leg injury like that.
08:52You might never see that second big contract.
08:54This guy worked his tail off to get back and is dominating once again.
08:58Well-deserved.
08:59A buck 41.
09:00Automatically in the bank, Joe.
09:02And then we're all, so what happens?
09:03That's pretty good.
09:04I believe that's a record for a non-quarterback, too, in the NFL.
09:09I mean, what, $45 million a year, basically.
09:12He becomes the second highest paid non-quarterback on an average annual salary.
09:18I believe Micah Parsons was the one who set the stage earlier this year when the Green Bay
09:23Packers signed him to that deal.
09:25So, but again, two guys that are absolute game wreckers and game changers on the defensive
09:31side of the ball, and it is no wonder that Green Bay and Detroit, ironically now, have
09:37two of the game's top paid and best pass rushers in all of the NFL there.
09:44It says something about the NFC North there.
09:47It does.
09:48I mean, great player.
09:49Got paid here.
09:50We'll see how the rest of the season goes for those Detroit Lions.
09:52If we do take a look at injury information and guys coming back, this is a pretty big deal.
09:57And this is what I love where you try to extrapolate on the game.
09:59Jacksonville's going to take on Las Vegas this weekend.
10:01You might've looked at the last time you saw Las Vegas.
10:03They were completely inept against the Kansas City Chiefs.
10:06I think they had three first downs in that game.
10:08Kept the ball for 17 minutes total of that football game, which is absolutely incredible
10:12over 60 minutes.
10:13But understand this.
10:14Help is on the way.
10:15Brock Bauer's got a full practice back in.
10:17Before he got injured, he looked like he was going to be the wrecking ball we knew he
10:21could be.
10:21He says he's close to 100%.
10:23Also, Jacoby Myers, their top wide receiver, got in the full practice on Wednesday as well.
10:28Help is on the way for the Raiders.
10:29Not to say that they're going to win this football game or have a great run to the season,
10:33but I think he might get a different look Raiders this week with Brock Bauer and the
10:36boys coming back.
10:38Well, you absolutely should.
10:39I mean, he was instrumental in the first couple of games of the season.
10:44I remember Gino opened up the season, looked tremendous there.
10:47It was one of the worst games, right?
10:49Uh, that, uh, I think it was New England that they played there, but it's, let's face it
10:54here.
10:55It's, they need weapons.
10:57They have to protect Gino.
10:59If they can establish now, because Gentry hasn't been able to get going because everyone's
11:04like, well, what else are they going to do besides try and run the ball here?
11:08Yeah.
11:08I think, uh, I think this will be a little different version of the Raiders than we've
11:12seen most of the year.
11:14Sometimes it feels like you're just cursed.
11:16Hey, Jaden Daniels is coming back.
11:17Awesome.
11:18We can win.
11:18Oh, by the way, Terry McLaurin came back, had a pretty good first half.
11:21Now he's down with a quad injury that they tried to play off as the game was out of reach.
11:25We just rested him.
11:26This guy showed up to camp injured, got a big deal, and then just played injured the
11:30entire season and now re-injures a quad, which took him weeks to come back from.
11:35We might not see Terry McLaurin again this season.
11:37Devastating blow for the commanders who made it to the NFC championship game last year.
11:41You know, they hope that it's not long-term, but they're going to reassess it, uh, next
11:47week.
11:48It's not going to be good.
11:50And it's so, because you saw what kind of game changer he was in that game, right?
11:54Uh, Monday night against the chiefs.
11:55Yep.
11:55I mean, he's making that toe tap.
11:57That's who McLaurin is.
11:59But unfortunately we might not see it the rest of the year.
12:02Tyler shock here out for the earth.
12:04Hey, how about that prognostication there out for the rest of the remaining season?
12:08He's going to get his first start of the year.
12:10I hate when coaches do this.
12:11Like Spencer Rattler wasn't good.
12:13You're on a bad football team.
12:14And you say, okay, he's our start of the rest of the year.
12:16Good luck with that in two weeks.
12:17If the kid can't perform, by the way, you're not getting a soft landing.
12:20It's like the Titans this week.
12:22You're on the road against a rested Rams team.
12:24Ouch.
12:26Well, unless he got, you know, seven games to sit on the sidelines, try and get acclimated
12:31to the game.
12:31But you know, it's not like a 22 year old rookie.
12:34The guy's like what?
12:3437.
12:35It's kind of crazy.
12:36When you think about it, uh-oh, Joe Flacco doesn't feel good.
12:40Carson Wentz didn't feel good.
12:41How'd that work out for a certain starting quarterback?
12:43Much more NFL news and notes again, coming back right here on the early line.
12:48Absolutely.
12:48How about this?
12:49Could it be a long night for the Miami Dolphins or a surprise victory where they say, you
12:52know what?
12:53We're not done.
12:54And we might be able to make the playoffs and basically ending Baltimore's playoff run
12:57before it even gets started.
12:58Baltimore is going to have their starting quarterback, Lamar Jackson, back under center.
13:02This line sits at seven and a half and money on the over continues to pour in as high as
13:0651 and a half at some outlets here.
13:08The spread line for Thursday night football, Joe, is what?
13:12Well, it's so funny, Donny, because the spread tickets are, you know, it's interesting.
13:18We're seeing a lot of tickets on the Ravens, but the line is not moving anywhere.
13:23And it hasn't for most of the week.
13:24Even after Lamar was, okay, he's going.
13:27He's 100%.
13:28He's back in.
13:29Okay, great.
13:30Why is this line not eight, eight and a half?
13:32What is going on here?
13:33Well, what's going on here, it's clear where the pros are going.
13:36And they're going to the over.
13:38You talked about that game opening up 48 and a half with some questions as far as whether
13:43Lamar would be playing or not.
13:45Well, now we're seeing 51s, even 51 and a half.
13:48Wouldn't shock me if it even gets higher because the public loves overs on Thursday night here.
13:54But keep in mind, this line from a spread perspective, Donny, has not moved an inch here, which tells
14:01me, even though the public thinks the Ravens are going to run them over, guess what?
14:05Yeah, there is a significant group of people here, influential bettors that think maybe
14:11seven and a half might be a little too much here with the Dolphins.
14:14People don't like criticism.
14:16Well, I mean, that's human nature at this point.
14:17Nobody likes to show up at their job and have somebody go like, hey, man, that's just not as
14:21good as I thought it would be at this point here.
14:22And he's asking the question like, well, who are we actually talking about?
14:25Teasing it before the break.
14:26Dexter Lawrence, really good defensive tackle for the New York Giants.
14:29You know who's squawking at him?
14:30One of the all-time giant greats in Carl Banks.
14:33Hey, sexy Dexy, ain't the player you once were.
14:35When I watch you, it doesn't look like other teams even respect you.
14:38They're just leaving you out there on an island.
14:40But if you check the numbers, they might be different.
14:43Here's a little Dexter Lawrence action at his locker.
14:45How about this?
14:46Dexter Lawrence.
14:47Dexter Lawrence, nobody respects you anymore.
14:52Nobody.
14:53Your opponents do not.
14:55The pre-injury Dexter is not there in their heads.
14:59They don't respect you.
15:01And there's a difference.
15:07You're on the field.
15:10They're blocking you with a nine-year backup center.
15:13Dexter, you're not making a difference.
15:18The old Dexter would.
15:19Okay?
15:21There are a lot of things that go into your performance.
15:24Only you know what that is.
15:26Whether you're still recovering or not, I'm just telling you now,
15:29I'm looking at enough tape to know that your opponents don't respect you.
15:34Were you surprised that Carl chose to air those criticisms of your game
15:38the way that he did on the podcast as opposed to coming in here
15:41or seeking out in the building to talk to you?
15:43Yeah, those words were, those are strong words.
15:46But that's how you feel.
15:48F*** it.
15:50Does it mean more to you that, does it mean more,
15:53those words mean more that they're coming from him?
15:55No.
15:55Like a giant legend?
15:56No?
15:57No.
15:57Why not?
15:58He's delusional.
15:59No.
15:59I love it, man.
16:04A little fighting between the Giants' old heads and the young heads out there.
16:09Yeah, you got to love that.
16:10And you got to love that, you know, Lawrence Taylor also chimes in
16:14and he's like, yeah, like, what are we doing here?
16:17The guy has been double teamed.
16:19I think the number was 75% of the snaps that he's on the field.
16:25So how is it that teams don't respect him, Donnie,
16:27if in fact 75% of the times that he is lining up here,
16:32they're throwing not one, but two guys at him.
16:35So, yeah, it's rough.
16:37Because when you don't win games that everyone feels you should win,
16:41when you're not that good, you're not competing,
16:43you're an easy target.
16:45And Dexter Lawrence is apparently, for some reason,
16:48who Carl Banks thought would be great to line up and take shots at.
16:52By the way, shout out Carl Banks.
16:53It's usually great players from teams don't like to criticize their own teams
16:57because that usually hurts your wallet down the line.
17:00Alumni events, fly in here.
17:02Hey, maybe you could be a liaison to the team,
17:03make a couple extra dollars.
17:05You're on a podcast now.
17:06The ownership groups have tentacles that go a long way
17:09where they pick up one phone call to your podcast company and say,
17:12you want inside access?
17:13He can't be on that show anymore.
17:15That's just the way it is.
17:16So shout out, even if he's right or wrong,
17:18to criticize the New York Giants.
17:19Being a New York Giants, great.
17:21We'll see how that works out for him here.
17:22Maybe it elevates his status, but I doubt it.
17:24Usually that's why, you know, Lawrence Taylor's like,
17:26hey, man, don't you criticize Dex?
17:28Knowing that those checks are contention.
17:29We need to flow in Lawrence's direction.
17:32Exactly.
17:33Exactly.
17:34And again, the number is proven.
17:36I mean, if you're really not being taken seriously,
17:38then there is absolutely no OC that's going to double team you
17:42and be like, we're not worried about him.
17:44No, they're worried about him.
17:45He will blow up a game plan, no problem.
17:48It is funny, too, because you're right.
17:50When you come in a stance like that, if there's no way like,
17:53I just don't think he's playing as well.
17:55Okay, you take your word for that.
17:56But when you're like, they don't respect you at all,
17:58and then you look at the numbers and be like,
17:59well, it's the same as last year and the year before
18:01that they're double teaming the guys,
18:02so they apparently still respect them.
18:03That's where you get tough caught up with
18:05because you can't really combat statistics.
18:07You can bend rules and regulations and look at other things,
18:10but when the stats are the same, where they are respecting them,
18:13it does make me laugh at this point here.
18:14But there you go.
18:15A little anger from the Giants nation right there,
18:17from old head to young head here.
18:18Let's get to one of the best games of the week, Joe.
18:21Four o'clock, 425 hour on Sunday.
18:24You got Kansas City and Buffalo, man.
18:25It's like a yearly ritual, and I love to see it.
18:27And we have a favorite here of the road team,
18:29Kansas City Chiefs, at minus one and a half.
18:31The total, it's up, Joe.
18:33Fifty and a half is no longer there.
18:34Fifty two and a half.
18:35By the way, Kansas City's got a really good defense,
18:38and it's cranking.
18:39This game is so easy to look at that total, Joe,
18:42and say, oh my goodness, of course they're going to score
18:45all those points.
18:46But real they in this game, I love this, man.
18:48This is good stuff.
18:50Well, I'm kind of with you here,
18:52because it's quite obvious that the Buffalo Bills game plan
18:56this year is that shootouts isn't exactly what they're looking to do,
19:01because they haven't had a lot of success.
19:03Now, they have beaten Kansas City in a regular season.
19:05Don't get me wrong.
19:07But it's the postseason that tends to be the problem here.
19:11So, I love a team that says, you know what,
19:14we're not going to keep doing the same thing
19:16and expect different results here, Donnie.
19:18So, they've actually geared everything up.
19:21That offensive line is ferocious,
19:23and they are going to run the ball down your throat.
19:27And to make matters worse for defenses, Donnie,
19:30that, okay, if you sell out to stop the run,
19:33well, then now you've got to worry about Josh Allen and his arm.
19:36Even though they don't have exactly the greatest wide receiving core,
19:40they've got enough tight ends,
19:41and they've got enough slot receivers there
19:43in order to be extremely dangerous.
19:45So, if I'm Buffalo,
19:47I want nothing to do with going score for score here.
19:51I want to milk that clock.
19:52I want to drive and win in the trenches.
19:55And I think if they do that,
19:57there's no way we get to 52 here, Donnie.
19:59Yeah, even if the car doesn't look sensational,
20:01that 425 game could make up for it,
20:03because everybody's going to watch it.
20:05That's certainly going to have some big ratings out there.
20:07405, a game that's going to get overshadowed.
20:09But I've got to tell you right now,
20:10I'm intrigued by this game, Joe.
20:11Jacksonville's a three-point favorite, excuse me,
20:14on the road taking on Vegas.
20:15This game's going to be in Vegas,
20:17Geno Smith going up against Trevor Lawrence.
20:18The total of this game is 44.5.
20:20You've got a lot of weapons coming back.
20:22Like, Brian Thomas was banged up.
20:23Now he's been off for a little bit of time,
20:25wearing that shoulder harness he should play.
20:27Travis Hunter is starting to be more involved
20:29in the offensive structure here,
20:30not playing as much defense.
20:32But on the other side,
20:33as we talked about early in the show,
20:34Jacoby Myers,
20:35this is one of the guys that they're looking to trade.
20:37You know how you get a good trade here for the Raiders?
20:40Hey, put him out there healthy.
20:41Looks like he's going to play.
20:42Showcase him a bit.
20:43Brock Bowers is also coming back.
20:44I can't stand Geno Smith.
20:46But no quarterback is going to be good
20:47without any weapons.
20:48Case in point,
20:49Kirk Cousins last week,
20:50aging quarterback with no weapons at wideout.
20:52They were terrible.
20:53Why am I thinking a sneaky total in this game, Joe,
20:55at 44.5 goes over?
20:57Yeah, I'm with you, Donnie.
21:00I love that look here because, let's face it here,
21:02I mean, both teams coming off the bye, right?
21:05But everything that I see with this Raiders team,
21:07whether Brock Bowers or Jacoby Myers is back or not,
21:10it just feels like the whole Pete Carroll-Gino Smith combo
21:14is way overdue for a separation here.
21:17Meanwhile, you got Liam Cohn,
21:19very young coaching staff there, right?
21:22First time head coach.
21:24The week off there,
21:26I think after that London trip,
21:27gives them an opportunity to kind of hit the reset button.
21:30I think both defenses certainly have been better
21:33than what we thought they may be this year.
21:35But I don't think there's a difference with offense.
21:38I think there's a huge difference with offenses.
21:39Jacksonville's offense is much better
21:42than anything we've seen from the Raiders,
21:44who are averaging barely 14 points a game, Donnie.
21:47They've scored 26 points in their last three games combined.
21:52I think Jacksonville,
21:53much better choice here to come out firing.
21:56And by the way, Jacksonville,
21:57great running game under Liam Cohn.
21:59So I think it's going to be a long afternoon for the Raiders.
22:03Exactly.
22:04That Raiders defense is horrendous.
22:06And by the way, Max Crosby,
22:07if he doesn't go this weekend,
22:09good luck on that defensive side of the ball.
22:12Something to keep an eye on.
22:13I know it's Thursday,
22:14but take a look at those practice reports throughout the week.
22:16They could make the difference in which way you want to go.
22:17How about Denver and Houston?
22:19Oh, no, Joe.
22:20Oh, no.
22:21Denver opened up on the look ahead line as a slight favorite.
22:23Minus one and a half.
22:24They're no longer there.
22:25Minus one and a half to Houston.
22:26The same MO we saw last week, Joe,
22:29with the San Francisco 49ers going to play Houston,
22:31opening up as a favorite and turning into the underdog.
22:3485% of the tickets early in the week coming in on Denver.
22:38No longer the favorite.
22:39Ooh, is the public set up for a pros versus Joe's here game in this matchup, Joe?
22:45It is, but the public is not always wrong.
22:48And I happen to agree with them here because I don't think Houston figured anything out
22:52against a banged up 49ers team here.
22:55I don't think it's close.
22:56The offensive line is still trash.
22:58They still can't run the ball.
23:01And despite how dominating that game was for the Houston Texans,
23:05the fact that the 49ers still, with under four minutes,
23:09had opportunities to make it a one-score game and cover that game,
23:13to me, tells you everything you need to know.
23:15I think the Denver defense makes CJ Stroud take two steps back,
23:20and that's exactly how I'm looking at this game.
23:22Come on now.
23:23Nico Collins is back.
23:24Maybe Christian Kirk this weekend, Joe.
23:26Believe in the Texans, man.
23:27You got to believe.
23:29Every week in the NFL, Joe, you got to prove yourself.
23:31Are you for real or are you not for real?
23:33It's a week-to-week league.
23:34Whoa, I can't believe what happened last week.
23:36Hey, that happened again the following week.
23:38You'll find out exactly what these teams are.
23:41And the one team that's going to be watching Thursday night football
23:43with rather anticipation are those Pittsburgh Steelers,
23:46hoping the Miami Dolphins can pull up the upset.
23:48If not, that's another victory for the Baltimore Ravens
23:52on their quest to try to overtake the Pittsburgh Steelers in their division.
23:56But the Pittsburgh Steelers, they better mind their own business
23:58because, once again, they're coming into a football game as a field goal underdog.
24:03You just saw the Packers roll in and wipe them on the field.
24:05Now it's the Colts at the beginning of the season.
24:07Hey, man, they got the Colts at home, dome team outdoors.
24:09We should be able to handle our business.
24:10That Colts team is absolutely running on rocket fuel right now.
24:15Three-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
24:17Look at this total.
24:18In a Steelers game outdoors, 50-and-a-half points.
24:22That's not because Pittsburgh has a great offense.
24:24That's because Pittsburgh's defense has been a no-show,
24:26and the Colts are absolutely flying.
24:29Do we trust?
24:30Hey, the Steelers getting points at home again, Joe.
24:32Uh-uh.
24:33It's Indy for me or nobody here.
24:36It's so hard to fade this Colts team right now, right?
24:40It is.
24:40I mean, they're 7-1.
24:41If the playoffs started today, Donnie, they'd have the number one seed.
24:45They'd have a bye, and they'd be waiting for everyone else to beat them up here.
24:49So the problem is still a little bit gun-shy with this team here.
24:56This opened up one and a half, Donnie, don't forget, and is bet up now to three,
25:01which is a pretty key number in the NFL.
25:04So I think the best way that I would approach this, Donnie, is hopefully this thing.
25:09Maybe we get a little more love here for Pittsburgh, closer to kickoff.
25:12I think this might drop to two and a half.
25:14And if it does, I would consider using the Steelers in a couple of teaser opportunities here
25:20because it's still a tough place to play, and it's still a dangerous team here.
25:25And Danny Dimes outdoors, it's still—I've got to keep seeing it before I fully invest in it here.
25:33I've got to tell you, the one thing that I look at is the explosiveness for the Pittsburgh Steelers
25:38has to change in this game.
25:39It's funny to say, like, Indy is the explosive team, and they are.
25:42They can hit home runs in the running game.
25:43They had an 80-yard touchdown last week by Jonathan Taylor.
25:46He can do that again.
25:46One missed tackle, he's off to the races.
25:48But Danny Dimes and that Shane Steichen offense looks absolutely fantastic.
25:53Fun game here.
25:54We'll see if Indy can pull off that road victory here.
25:56And by the way, Indy could be the number one overall seed in the AFC,
25:59and that's not even a fluke, man.
26:01Impressive performances early in the season for the Colts.
26:03We'll see if that continues on Sunday at 1 o'clock in Pittsburgh.
26:06How about Atlanta and New England?
26:07New England, one of the hottest teams in football.
26:09They continue to win.
26:10Atlanta, you're getting a mixed bag.
26:12One week looked good.
26:14Then it's all of a sudden, look what the heck is going on.
26:15We don't know who's going to start at quarterback.
26:17Looks like it might be panics.
26:18But if you don't get London back, can they move the ball?
26:20New England is a five-and-a-half point favorite and a total of 44-and-a-half.
26:23Bichon's one of the best players in football.
26:25Isolated last week and bad going up against the Miami Dolphins.
26:29Is it more May Day on Sunday?
26:32We talked about this earlier in the week on the spread lines, Donnie,
26:36and we had said the look-ahead line here was two-and-a-half, three for the Patriots.
26:41And then all of a sudden, Monday, we saw four-and-a-half.
26:44Monday afternoon, five-and-a-half, which is where we are sitting right now.
26:49So, yeah, the Patriots route the Browns 32-13.
26:53The Falcons get routed, like you said, by the Dolphins 34-10.
26:57And as soon as that line opened, it was nothing but Pat's money.
27:01But more importantly, it's still kind of there.
27:03It got as high as six, and now it has just settled at five-and-a-half,
27:07which is dead zone as far as numbers go in the NFL, right?
27:12So the books, one way or the other, aren't enticing you.
27:15The question that I have, Donnie, is does this get into teaser range?
27:18Will we see a six or six-and-a-half here with New England?
27:23If they do, I would imagine a lot of teasers are going to be tied to the Patriots
27:28just having to win the game.
27:30And again, just keep an eye on the practice reports here.
27:32Like, if Michael Penix doesn't go, you want to trust Kirk Cousins again.
27:35But more importantly than even the quarterback, if Drake London isn't out there,
27:38the M.O. is out, hey, look, we'll go nine in the box,
27:40and you can't throw it to anybody because nobody can catch a pass.
27:43That's a dangerous territory.
27:44I'm interested to see how New England, again, that favorite position expected to win.
27:47They're handling their business doing that against teams they should beat.
27:50This is another team this weekend, Joe, that they should beat here.
27:53Minnesota and Detroit, divisional matchup here.
27:56I like this one.
27:57But for the side of Detroit, Detroit's humming on offense.
27:59They are a different animal at home than they are on the road.
28:02Now, granted, Minnesota's a dome team.
28:04They're going on the road, still in a dome.
28:05So both of these teams should be comfortable.
28:07But J.J. McCarthy's slow roll back to being the starting quarterback
28:10only because Carson Wentz got exploded like a bomb the past two games.
28:14I don't trust them.
28:15That line might look high.
28:17And yes, you probably should take Minnesota.
28:18I like Detroit.
28:19And I like Detroit to roll by double digits here, Joe.
28:21I do.
28:22Yeah, I am not looking to back Minnesota, J.J. McCarthy, in this spot here.
28:30Although the look-ahead line, even though the Lions were off last week, right, was about
28:35seven, seven and a half.
28:36We saw this line jump to higher at nine and a half, which is kind of where it's sitting
28:42right now.
28:43Wouldn't shock me if it gets to double digits here.
28:46And you're right here, Donnie.
28:47It's very hard to trust anything that you are getting from the Vikings.
28:52I think the best chance of covering this is you're hoping that Detroit somehow shoots
28:58itself in the foot here, which I don't think at home they are going to do.
29:02Yeah, it's wild to look at this because Detroit is, and again, you got that Hutchinson deal,
29:06the defense getting healthy, where they were down like their top eight defensive backs and
29:09still winning football games.
29:10What happens when Detroit now is fully healthy on the back end here with that offense that
29:14can absolutely move?
29:15And the one thing we always gave credit for was that Brian Flores defense.
29:18They're getting shredded left and right, particularly through the air.
29:21And if you got Amon Ross St. Brown and Jared Goff running play action with the running game
29:24working, I don't see what I'm seeing out of Minnesota and how they can help.
29:27I look at that 48 and a half drive struggles with it because theoretically, if Minnesota got
29:31good quarterback play, they'd be able to move the football.
29:33But J.J.
29:34McCarthy coming back, like, what does he play, Joe?
29:36One quarter of good football against the Bears and stunk up the joint the rest of the time?
29:40I don't have high expectations right out of the gate for McCarthy.
29:43Maybe he's better later in the year, maybe he's better in his career, but first game
29:47back in Detroit with that crowd, I'm not looking for an explosive game plan for Minnesota.
29:52I'm just not.
29:53Nope.
29:54And, you know, maybe team total also not a bad way to look, or even the first half,
29:59Donnie, because Detroit usually tends to come out firing and dominating.
30:04Yeah, love it, man.
30:05Big week of football starts tonight, Baltimore and Miami.
30:09They'll be able to kick it off.
30:10That game also 51 and a half.
30:11We'll see what those points come in, but this weekend, and again, it's just like every
30:14week, like college football, you hope for the big matchups.
30:17We don't necessarily have a lot of big matchups this weekend, but a lot of high lines on the
30:21totals, which we should be getting scoring.
30:23And by the way, little PSA, Joe, I'm one of the guys who always loved one and a half
30:27touchdowns for the quarterback.
30:29They were priced moderately over the past couple of years.
30:31Not anymore, Joe.
30:33It's routine.
30:34Hey, you're getting a bargain at minus 160 now?
30:37Guys are routinely over minus 200.
30:39Now, they're hitting those numbers, but Joe, come on, man.
30:42Let's make a phone call to the sports book.
30:44Ease off the people out here, Joe.
30:45Ease off the people.
30:47Best bets coming up next.
30:48Don't you go anywhere.
30:50This is the Sports Grid Network.
30:51Don't you love it, people?
30:52It's the early line.
30:53Getting you ready for your Sports Grid day.
30:55No baseball tonight.
30:56Major League Baseball return tomorrow night on a Friday night game, number six of the World Series.
30:59But tonight, we have the Ravens and the Dolphins.
31:02And this is the part of the show where we like to reach out to the public and try to
31:06find out exactly where they want to go.
31:07We talk all show.
31:09Now, it's your time to respond.
31:10Here's Fade the Public.
31:19Deion Sanders likes to say, Joe Ranieri, ain't hard to find.
31:22Neither are we on the Sports Grid Network, always with a lively presence on social media.
31:26Go to X at Sports Grid, follow the account, because we ask questions each and every morning
31:30for our early line to find out where the public is going to decide maybe one of the sporting
31:35events.
31:36And tonight, no difference.
31:37It's Thursday Night Football.
31:38The question asked, what are you betting on tonight in Ravens versus Dolphins on Thursday
31:43Night Football?
31:44Four options.
31:45The Ravens minus seven and a half.
31:46The Dolphins plus seven and a half.
31:48Over 50 and a half.
31:49Or under 50 and a half.
31:51The leader in the clubhouse by a wide margin live right now, Joe?
31:54The Ravens minus seven and a half is a road favorite here at 55.1%.
32:00How about that?
32:01Big lead.
32:02That's a huge lead, Donnie.
32:05And listen, it makes sense, right?
32:07But I'd be very, I would not run to the window.
32:10We know seven is a key number in the NFL.
32:14And now you want to give us the hook on a team that just went in and beat the snot out
32:20of an Atlanta team that they were supposed to lose to by double digits.
32:25I'm sorry, man.
32:26It's been weird enough.
32:28And don't forget, underdogs have dominated prime time this year here, Donnie.
32:32I would not be running and saying all is well with the Baltimore Ravens.
32:37They may win, but covering is a different animal on a short week on a Thursday night.
32:42No, it certainly is.
32:43And also, some of the question marks.
32:45This might be a paint-by-numbers game.
32:46Yeah, the Ravens are back healthy.
32:48Yeah, they blew up the Miami Dolphins.
32:49Or it's, ooh, Lamar.
32:51I don't know.
32:52You saw Terry McLaurin last week.
32:53Hey, man, quad feels good.
32:54Oh, no.
32:55Left a game quad injury.
32:56Very simple to make one move out there with your quick-tritch muscle.
32:59And by the way, if anybody's ever played a sport before, good luck knowing where it's like,
33:03you know what?
33:03I think my hamstring is a little bit damaged.
33:05Oh, a player's coming to tackle me.
33:07Ah, let me try to get out of the way.
33:08Oh, no.
33:08There goes my hamstring at this point.
33:10It's happened before.
33:11I'm not saying it's going to happen tonight, but that could play into the situation.
33:14We'll find out later because somebody's going to actually win.
33:17Somebody's going to cover or not cover this game later on.
33:19But now it's time to find out where those winners are at tonight.
33:23Here's bye-bye-bye.
33:24I'm going to take it to the NFL game tonight.
33:26And if I'm looking at, I sort of said, you know what, Donnie?
33:29Don't outsmart yourself in this one.
33:30I do like Lamar Jackson to go over the 35 and a half rushing.
33:33But something sort of holds me back saying, what happens if he isn't right?
33:36Oh, that was the easiest bet.
33:38He only ran two times for 11 yards and he was able to throw the football.
33:41So why not look to his favorite target?
33:42It's a flowers.
33:4364 and a half.
33:44And it was the best number I could find.
33:46A little bit juicy at minus 125.
33:48Because if we are getting points in it, Joe, at 50 and a half.
33:50I don't think it's just going to be just Derrick Henry, 15 carries for 198 yards and three touchdowns.
33:55The air is going to be the way to make your money for the Baltimore Ravens.
33:59And I'm not asking for 100 yards.
34:01Zay Flowers, give me two to three catches in the first half, 30 to 40 yards.
34:04And away we go in this matchup tonight.
34:07The Ravens need to put up some offense.
34:09Zay Flowers will help me out.
34:10Over 64 and a half receiving yards, Joe.
34:13That's where I'm going.
34:13And that'll do it for the show today.
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