The mother lode of cold is coming

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno takes a look at the cold coming this weekend to the U.S.

Transcript

00:00well the cold pattern has been locked in from the lakes to the northeast since about thanksgiving

00:11when a strong cold front came through the cold air came in and it's pretty much been cold the

00:17entire time now during this period on the feed we've been talking about the opportunities for

00:22snow i must say while there has been clippers and occasional snow we have not had a big storm yet

00:31certainly not for the northeastern united states and i am a little surprised because as you know

00:37one of my rules the rhino rule whenever you get an injection of cold air you get two opportunities

00:43for snow on the front end and the back end and that really has not materialized quite a bit in fact

00:52hasn't really materialized at all now for those that you are wondering i'm not looking i'm not

00:58i'm not hoping for snow but when i see a pattern of arctic injection my intent is go up for snow

01:06because usually you at least have one big area of snow now we did have a snow area a week ago that

01:14was pretty large but i wouldn't say it was a huge storm so i am surprised we haven't seen one

01:18and as we look at the coldest air mass of the season coming that's going to be this weekend

01:24my intent is up for snow again however it all depends on whether this system is going to be a

01:32fast mover or whether it's going to be digging a little farther to the south and if it does

01:36there's an opportunity for a widespread heavy snow the modeling right now is like

01:41yeah okay now this is what we have seen though i don't want to make it seem like there's been no snow

01:48i mean look at the snow cover here and i mean the snow capital along the east in the mid-atlantic

01:54has been virginia look at all this snow two snow storms in in richmond but the deep snow pack is

02:01here in the midwest and new england this is where we've seen these continual storms come across the

02:07northern tier of the u.s including the storm that we've been dealing with here this morning and that's

02:11where we've had the snow now where are we going here well i do want to show you there is

02:17that system that we talked about last week coming thursday and friday i don't think it's going to be

02:21a big snow but i do think there's at least going to be a little snow with this let me show you where

02:27we're going let's go to tomorrow morning here all right it it's right in here this piece of energy

02:32by tomorrow morning it's going to be across british columbia watch where it goes comes eastward

02:38it's fast moving though it's right in here all right it's right in here you know it's so fast moving

02:44it's not digging to the south they're moving to the south it's going to be moisture starved but i do

02:49think there's going to be some snow with this you can see it on the surface map we're looking at the

02:53european model right now see right in here this is thursday evening right right in here this is the

02:59area where you're going to get maybe a coating to an inch or two of snow i would not anticipate

03:03any snow though east of the appalachians with this the time frame to watch for the bigger snow

03:10opportunity and i'm not saying it's going to happen but if we get one it's going to be friday

03:14night into saturday because you've got the mother load of cold coming and i don't use that term

03:19lightly i want to show you look at all of this cold this is this evening across the yukon and

03:26northwest territories here you know large area where it's 25 degrees below zero i mean even for this

03:32part of the world this is cold air watch it start bleeding south a little bit this is thursday night

03:38now here it comes watch it friday morning look at the pinks across north dakota friday morning

03:45saturday morning into the uh into minnesota wisconsin and then into the northeast saturday

03:52and the sunday so with this cold air the question is is it a cold front only a cold front in which case

04:00you just have a little snow or is there going to be a wave of low pressure that develops on this front

04:06that produces a large area of snow and and i do believe that the potential is there for that to

04:13happen with this cold air ask we made this yesterday now the question is is you're going to get the snow

04:20with this in the midwest the real question is is how much snow are you going to get here once you get

04:27toward the mid-atlantic into the northeast because if it's a fast-moving storm right if it's a fast-moving

04:33storm it goes off the coast and there's virtually no snow in the northeast but if it's a little

04:38stronger and the upper air pattern is right that it can hug the coast then we can have a problem

04:45for the i-95 corridor especially boston on north all right i want to show you the upper air pattern

04:50with this and uh and this is what it looks like i'll show you what we're looking at yesterday and

04:55what we're looking at today now here's the piece of energy coming down it's right here

04:59as we get into friday right in here there it is you see this and watch go back where is this

05:05upper low coming from it's coming from where the northwest territory is where we have all the cold

05:12so all that cold that you saw on the map that's coming south this is easily the coldest air mass

05:19within this pattern that we've been in i mean the dakotas aren't i mean minnesota minneapolis chicago

05:25well minneapolis you may be below zero all day saturday and sunday now let's go back to this

05:31though here's the energy coming south now here it comes your snow's going to be with this piece of

05:36energy in here across the midwest now watch what it does today it just kind of doesn't look right

05:45here's what it looked like yesterday i want to go back to what we're looking at yesterday see this

05:50look at the difference the difference was yesterday the the trough axis was more negatively

05:58tilted what do i mean by that it's tilted this way now because of that you start drawing in atlantic

06:04moisture and then you have to worry about snow along the 95 corridor now but today it's it's it the tilt

06:10is more positive so that means the storm runs out to sea not up the coast now it's early in the game

06:16but that's what the modeling looks like today and let me let me show you the difference in in what

06:22the surface map looks like with this storm here it comes saturday here's today's runs little bit of

06:28snow now listen still a close call new york city philadelphia up in the boston but compare it to

06:35yesterday bigger storm so look at the difference yesterday's runs today's run yesterday's run today's

06:42run notice it's farther offshore because of that trough axis is more positively tilted not negative but

06:49still have to worry about this it's a possibility and that's what we're going to be watching on the feed

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