- 2 weeks ago
In a special SoSouth broadcast, India Today's editors and bureau chiefs analyze the political landscape for the 2026 Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The panel, featuring Akshita Nandagopal, Pramod Madhav, Shibi Mol, and Abdul Basheer, discusses the potential impact of actor Vijay’s Tamizhaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), with a survey suggesting a possible 22-23% vote share. The discussion also covers the BJP's strategy, including the appointment of Union Minister Piyush Goyal as the election in-charge for Tamil Nadu, and the AIADMK-BJP dynamics. For Kerala, the report examines the UDF's sweep in the local body polls, the LDF's setback, and the BJP's historic win in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, highlighting shifting vote shares and the DMK's development narrative against anti-incumbency.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome. Namaskaram, namaskara, vanakkam.
00:04You're joining us for a very special broadcast of SoSouth.
00:07I'm essentially gate crashing the show of my colleagues
00:10because they've come down to Noida.
00:12They're all here in our Noida studio for a very special 60 minute broadcast
00:17that we're getting to you where we're focusing completely on what's happening
00:20in the two pole-bound states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
00:24You don't need any introduction but for what it's worth,
00:26Shibimol, our Kerala girl is here in Noida.
00:30We've got Apoorva from Andhra.
00:33Pramod Madhav, I know your name, Pramod, Pramod is joining us.
00:36He's come all the way from Chennai.
00:39Nagachand Dwarakarnath, of course, our Kannada boy, is here, Kannadiga boy rather.
00:43And we've got Sagar Raj also who's joining us
00:46and finally Abdul Bashir from Telangana.
00:48So thanks all of you for joining us just so that you get a bit of a flavor of the South.
00:52I've ensured that we can get the best of South Indian food here.
00:55This is the best we can do.
00:56This is literally like Abhufi, we have kukma, idli, dosa, two chutneys, three chutneys, the sambar.
01:02So looks a perfect plate.
01:03And since you love Karnataka sambar, I've kept two for you.
01:05Yeah, it's the best sambar.
01:06I can give mine also.
01:07You can give yours also, sure.
01:09I think most people will give off their sambar for you.
01:11So we've ensured a spread so they feel right at home.
01:14Don't compare it, of course, to what you get in your own home states
01:17because I don't know if it'll match up.
01:19But let's get right down to it.
01:20And what we're looking at in this broadcast is obviously a lot of hot idli, dosa,
01:26a side of politics because everyone's going to be looking at what's happening in 2026
01:29in Tamil Nadu and Puduchiri, of course, as well as Kerala.
01:33We'll start with Tamil Nadu.
01:34And I'll throw you right up on the mat, Pramod.
01:38Who's winning right now as things stand?
01:41If I simply answer that question, I will be in a lot of trouble.
01:45You're in Noida now.
01:46You don't need to worry.
01:47I'd have to go back to Tamil Nadu.
01:48And considering X and everything, that'll become serious trouble.
01:52But I would say that for now, the lead seems to be for the present government
01:56because there are multiple forces but they're still emerging.
02:02First and foremost is the alliance.
02:03They need to get a proper alliance.
02:05And second thing is that like the dynamics over the alliance itself earlier,
02:08the opposition wanted to do something but it's doing something different right now.
02:13And it completely changed within a span of two months or so.
02:16So when it comes to Tamil Nadu, I mean, it's going to be a very interesting election.
02:22And I would simply say it depends first and foremost on the alliance.
02:26And everybody's betting on, I know you're going to go there, the Vijay factor.
02:30But I will still hold my cards back.
02:33It's almost like blackjack over here.
02:35So I will slowly.
02:37Considering Tamil Nadu and Dravidian politics, I want to use the word blackjack.
02:39He was talking about alliance.
02:40But Prambo, tell me this.
02:41This recent issue of Praveen Chakravarti meeting Vijay over the same idli dosa for breakfast for two hours.
02:47Did he have the blessings of the high command to meet or was it just in personal capacity that he met?
02:51And also is it true that the Congress is trying to get close to Vijay?
02:55So I will.
02:56The second part is true.
02:58They are trying to get close.
02:59Yes.
02:59But the first part is that whatever Praveen Chakravarti did, it resonated more in Delhi than Tamil Nadu.
03:06But wasn't Tamil Nadu Congress upset?
03:07Yes.
03:08I'll come to that.
03:08The PCC was not even kept in the loop.
03:09I'll come to that.
03:11The thing is that we have Tamil Nadu Congress Committee and we have a president over there, Silvi Paranthagai.
03:15We also have very senior leaders, B.H. Dumbra, Makati Dumbra, who did not have reacted on this matter so far for some particular reason.
03:22But the important aspect is that Praveen Chakravarti, he went, he met Vijay.
03:27We have like video proofs and everything for that.
03:29But later, he is kind of giving us different statements right now.
03:33The only aspect is that after what happened in Karur, Rahul Gandhi spoke to Vijay.
03:38Yeah.
03:38It was confirmed by Vijay's team.
03:40But after that, nobody from Congress wants to talk about it.
03:44That should answer my question.
03:45So am I going to then look at it as Tamil Nadu Congress, not really foreign alliance, but National Congress foreign alliance?
03:51No, no.
03:52The thing is that, okay, these are all things that are supposed to happen only after January, but I'm giving everything.
03:57Why have I come here?
03:58But I also feel, Akshita, that Congress sending signals to Vijay will give them a more bargaining power with the DMK.
04:06This could be just that at the end of the day.
04:08It could be pure optics.
04:09Those things will roll out.
04:11But the first thing is that they want to use Vijay for Kerala and Puditsheri.
04:15What do you mean?
04:16That is his popularity.
04:17We are not voting, looking at film stars, we are voting politically.
04:20And Vijay, I mean, is Vijay a photo in Kamalabad?
04:23Vijay has fans, but I don't think anybody in Kamalabad will vote just because Vijay is having a...
04:27What happened in the recent election?
04:28Suresh Gobi you're talking about?
04:30But Suresh Gobi has been in politics for a very long time.
04:34He was working in Trishur for a long time.
04:35The recent election, what happened to BJP and other things, the dynamics kind of changed, right?
04:39That is okay, but I am talking about an actor, voting for an actor, seeing his stardom.
04:43I will simply say that Congress believes that stardom will work.
04:48So they are using Vijay in Kerala?
04:50They want to.
04:52Shibbi?
04:53That is...
04:53I mean, this is the first time I'm hearing this.
04:55Yeah, it's surprising.
04:56Political dynamics is totally different compared to Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
05:00Yeah, yeah.
05:01Tamil Nadu has always had a track record of having film stars who have entered into politics and making a name for themselves.
05:06No, so we haven't...
05:07It's there.
05:08In Kerala also, it's there.
05:09Not that it isn't...
05:10But I mean, I don't see a Vijay.
05:12No, not Vijay.
05:13Even in Suresh Gobi's case, I would say that it was a long-term effort.
05:17Like, he was in the conference for like 15 years in Trishur itself.
05:21He contested thrice to win that seat.
05:23We have had multiple stars failing in politics in Kerala.
05:26Everything is fine.
05:27So it's all political.
05:28But the thing is that...
05:29Vijay do have fans.
05:30I agree.
05:30Kerala is crazy.
05:31It is being sold is that Kerala is crazy about Vijay.
05:33That's true.
05:34And they want to see that if it will work.
05:37That's the only fact.
05:38But I think...
05:39I think we're all forgetting eating the Igles and the Samba.
05:42I know it's not as good as what you get at...
05:44I know it's not as good as what you get at home.
05:47But please, we made the effort.
05:49Thank you for the effort.
05:50If you notice, Kerala has the highest RSS shakas and highest number of right-wing activists.
05:56Still, they are unable to come to power.
05:58Because it cannot be converted into wars.
06:00Similarly, it will not have any kind of influence through Kerala.
06:04See, we are not talking about people who knows politics.
06:06We are talking about people who are influenced by Vijay.
06:09No, so like youngsters.
06:10I don't think so.
06:11Like youngsters.
06:11You can see, stardom is something that will not impact much.
06:15Because we have seen Pawan Kalyan.
06:16Initial stages, how he had performed.
06:19But focusing completely on stardom, I think people will not buy it in the south.
06:23In Telangana, that will not work.
06:24We had Chiranjeevi, we had Pawan Kalyan.
06:26I am not saying that stardom is going to work.
06:29I am saying that it is a strategy plan.
06:31Because you asked, what is the plan for Congress with Vijay.
06:35But this is a strategy plan.
06:38We are not going to treat Pramod as the Congress spokesperson here to defend and justify.
06:42We have been only speaking of...
06:44No, no, no.
06:44I have understood that I have offended Telangana.
06:46We have not offended Telangana.
06:48We have not offended Telangana.
06:49You have not offended Telangana.
06:50We have not offended Telangana.
06:51We are nowhere in the picture.
06:52But that is a strategy.
06:53Okay, so Pramod is not Congress spokesperson.
06:55We are not going to ask him to justify it or make us understand it.
06:58This is apparently the strategy.
06:59But yeah.
07:00No, but we have been talking about the alliance in the government.
07:03But we also have to look at how the alliance is forming in opposition.
07:06If TVK doesn't have any more parties, can he be a pan Tamil Nadu party?
07:11Can he have 120 odd seats that he needs to come back to form a majority government?
07:16Does he have enough?
07:17Or will the AIDMT tomorrow break away from BJP maybe in Feb?
07:21And like EPS can be like the martyr that stood up to Delhi and say I will go with Vijay.
07:26But that's the big...
07:27We also have to look at the opposition alliance party.
07:29Do they have the chemistry to get 35 odd persons?
07:31See here's what I am hearing.
07:33Sitting in Delhi, I know it's very far, but you have a lot of the politics playing out here
07:38in the sense especially with the BJP, AIDMT, Kamba and all the meetings that are happening here.
07:42When I ask them about Vijay, they say he'll be a factor.
07:45They say he will be a deciding factor in this election.
07:48Now if I were to give a number and this is me sticking my neck out,
07:52but I'm going to go ahead and say what I'm hearing.
07:54You're going to end up in trouble.
07:56So be it.
07:57But I'm going to say what I'm hearing.
07:58Everyone's telling me his vote share as it stands now,
08:02it could go up, it could go down.
08:04You know, nobody knows what's going to happen in the next few months.
08:0615 to 20 percent.
08:07Plus.
08:08I'll add something.
08:09Depending on that.
08:10I'll not name a person on the party.
08:13A senior member from a big party told me in their survey...
08:16At least which party you tell me?
08:17No, no, I'll be in trouble again.
08:18I'll tell you.
08:19This is very boring.
08:20That person told...
08:21X told Y about Z.
08:22What am I supposed to do in this?
08:23We have to go back and meet these people.
08:25You are sitting in Karnataka.
08:26It's okay.
08:27No, no, no.
08:28But they said in their survey, Vijay is somewhere around 22 to 23 percent as of today.
08:32See, I didn't want to say 20 percent.
08:35Some people have told me that, but 20 to...
08:3715 to 20 percent is a rough estimate, I think.
08:3920 percent is big vote share, but will the seat conversion happen?
08:42Because he has fans...
08:43Scattered.
08:44Yeah, it's scattered.
08:45Like JDS in Karnataka is 20 percent vote share, but their conversion rate is 20...
08:49So, the challenge I think for Vijay will be, yes, so first on the vote share.
08:5315 to 20 percent or 15 to 25 percent?
08:55Does everyone agree with that?
08:56What do you guys think?
08:57Yeah.
08:58Or do you think lesser than that?
08:59No, I think it will be lesser because like in Andhra...
09:02Lesser?
09:03Yes, because in Andhra, if you see, Pawan Kalyan has had a lot of trials and errors before
09:07actually getting into, you know, having the seat sharing talks to even take place between
09:11Naidu, Pawan Kalyan and BJP to happen.
09:14No, sir, I think he...
09:15When a fan, being a fan is different, converting it into votes is a very big factor there.
09:19See, yeah, like he said...
09:20But also in Tamil Nadu, there's a space for an opposition, a strong opposition.
09:22Agreed.
09:23There's that alternative, you know, there's a...
09:25But that's not going to be a decided factor for Vijay.
09:27But actually in Tamil Nadu, what do you think?
09:2960 to 25 percent?
09:30I am the one from Tamil Nadu, but I am the one who's talking...
09:33Like you all believe there's anti-incumbency.
09:35There are so many things that happened over there.
09:37But do you see an outrage?
09:39Do you see an outrage over Karur Institute?
09:41Do you see an outrage over Anmai University Institute?
09:42Of course.
09:43No, they can also be silent probably.
09:45It can be a waveless election.
09:46No, so tell me something.
09:47In Tamil Nadu, haven't we always seen a great deal of anti-establishment, anti-incumbency?
09:53Always.
09:54That's something that's part and intrinsic to Tamil Nadu politics.
09:56That was actually broken by AIDMK.
09:58Yeah, but that was then, no?
10:00No.
10:01You have to wait.
10:02Because what I'm trying to say here is that, you all say he's going to have 15 to 20 percent.
10:06Congress Neta might have told you something.
10:07I am quoting...
10:08Congress, okay, I got it.
10:09I'm not agreeing with that.
10:13I got it.
10:14Congress told Naga 22 to 23 percent.
10:17No, no.
10:18Your same Neta spoke to me as well.
10:20But the second thing is, I will quote a DNK Neta, alright?
10:24And that particular person says that we agree that he has 10 to 12 percent.
10:2810 to 12.
10:29But converting it to vote is a big deal.
10:31Yeah.
10:32And second thing is that, he has a major minor following.
10:37Okay.
10:38What do you mean?
10:39No, what is the minority you're referring to?
10:41From 10 to 18 years old.
10:42Underage.
10:43Underage.
10:44Underage people.
10:45Pramod, my question is, how about the voters of Vijay Kanth?
10:48How are the voters of PMK?
10:50So, it is a divided house in PMK between Ramdas and Islam.
10:53And how about Vijay Kanth voters?
10:55Will they vote for Vijay or it will be for DNK?
10:57It's a very sad thing because like Vijay Kanth's DMDK has almost dissimited.
11:01Yeah.
11:02Okay.
11:03That that party is like, you know, I don't know what strategy they're going to bring back
11:06to gain force.
11:07Because Premrata is the one who's leading the party.
11:10And when it comes to Patali Makrutalchi, they have kind of like infighting and such.
11:14And Anumani Ramdas is trying to manage it.
11:16But the bigger factor is that their votes are caste centric.
11:21And be it DNK, be it AIDMK or be it PMK, that vote will go for that particular
11:26caste leader.
11:27So, that's the difference I see between Vijay and the other parties.
11:30Vijay doesn't have a caste bloke.
11:31Exactly.
11:32He has a youth following.
11:33And women and mass following women.
11:35Yesterday, the DNK conducted this, you know, normally youth program where they brought
11:38in almost 1.39.
11:39But to counter Vijay.
11:40But tell me, you spoke about anti-incumbency, it's not seen on ground as of now.
11:45But what do you think are the factors for incumbency, pro-incumbency?
11:47How do you think that, what narrative will the DNK and Stalin government take saying that
11:51we will come back to power?
11:52The one thing that even yesterday's, the chief minister's speech, if I want to quote,
11:56it's about development.
11:57The chief minister talks about development.
11:58He says he has brought in more investment, more jobs, women-centric, you know, be it like
12:031,000 rupees or be it like free buses or everything.
12:06He says that let's concentrate on that particular thing.
12:08And they're very clearly mentioning that we, you know, they're called, I mean, should
12:11I use the word slaves here?
12:12Of course.
12:13Because BJP, he says that BJP is bringing old slaves and new slaves to counter them.
12:19All right.
12:20And when it comes to kind of silent anti-incumbency, there would have been at least some kind of,
12:27you know, ripples on the ground.
12:29On the ground, I'm not seeing it yet.
12:31We still have almost three months.
12:33What will happen?
12:34We don't know.
12:35But the important aspect is that like AADMK wanted to raise this issue as a campaign,
12:39anti-drugs and women's safety.
12:41Yeah.
12:42I don't see that reflecting on that.
12:43And there are two big questions.
12:44So they've not exploited the anti-incumbency.
12:45Not just that.
12:46Even the governor has spoken on it multiple times.
12:47But even after that, we don't see it reflecting on that.
12:48Actually, there are two big factors also.
12:50Will the opposition party raise the issue that maybe one year post the election that Udainini
12:55will become the CM's father will make way for the son to become chief police chief?
12:58You know, you are actually giving them idea because they didn't raise it until now.
13:01No.
13:02That's a good point.
13:03See, when you speak about development.
13:06It's a very good point.
13:07No, no.
13:08I want to tell him that Nagar channel is a very good point.
13:10The opposition should have thought about it.
13:12Maybe they're taking notes now.
13:13Yeah, Abdul.
13:14See, when you say it is about development, okay, every chief minister during his tenure will
13:18talk about it.
13:19Yeah.
13:20Even KCR did.
13:21But what happened in the elections?
13:22People voted the other way around.
13:24They've experienced the welfare schemes, everything.
13:27But he was moved out of the chain.
13:28Yeah, but in fact, Abdul, if you see, if you see KCR's what happened in Telangana elections,
13:34it was because, yes, anti-income HC was one part of it.
13:38But they also had an alternate face.
13:40Ravens and Congress, they did have an alternate face.
13:42No, but EPS, is he strong enough to take on a Stalin?
13:45He's not that strong.
13:46Even without the alliance, Stalin's vote share is around 23%.
13:48That's all.
13:49Not a majority vote share.
13:50No, I agree.
13:51The same with EPS.
13:52You're looking at a vote share.
13:53Yeah.
13:54The same with EPS.
13:55So the thing is, is EPS popular enough?
13:56Is he popular enough?
13:57See, there is an image.
13:58Stalin is popular.
13:59There's no doubt about it.
14:00He's hugely popular.
14:01He is a leader that people recognize very, very clearly.
14:04EPA has yet to establish himself as a clear leader, especially with all of these rumblings.
14:08You know, it doesn't look good.
14:09If I have to speak from the ground again, the twin leaf symbol is much more popular than EPS.
14:15Even now.
14:16Even now.
14:17Does it hold the same power it did maybe, let's say, 10 years ago?
14:202016 versus 2026.
14:21How about minorities, Pramod?
14:22Because they've made alliance with BJP.
14:24I heard that most of the minorities who were associated with AIDNK have moved out.
14:29It's not like most of the minorities.
14:30It depends on the ground once again.
14:32If you go to Madurai, like Kalangana, Lula or something, the famous Jalika stuff,
14:35you can still see twin leaf symbols everywhere.
14:38They don't care about the leader because for them MGR is God.
14:41And that is their party.
14:43Their alliance is always with them.
14:44But, like you mentioned, the alliance has broken up.
14:47Even though, you know, OPS or TTV, they want to move out or something,
14:52their allegiance is still towards twin leaves.
14:54They either want to win it back, they want to cause some ripples,
14:57but they will always stay with AIDNK.
15:00But, you will ask me about Sengotian.
15:02That's a difference to me.
15:03I want to throw this thing.
15:05All of us can discuss.
15:06What are your predictions that the alliance will be in March?
15:10What would it look like?
15:12What would it look like?
15:13Shibi, you want to go?
15:14It's too early to say, to be honest.
15:16No, give your prediction.
15:17Of course, it's too early.
15:18Would India Alliance be there or not be there?
15:23How do you think?
15:24I think Congress and DMK, India Alliance will be there.
15:26Okay.
15:27I don't think Congress can survive in Tamil Nadu without DMK's support.
15:30Like, whether it's Lok Sabha also.
15:31They want just because DMK is worked or not,
15:33because they have a good CADA system or something on ground.
15:36So, I think that alliance will stay.
15:39And I think Congress doesn't have another option also.
15:42They will have to stay there.
15:43I don't think they are going to take another chance also,
15:45leaving DMK in that alliance.
15:46You know, leaving DMK and leaving that alliance.
15:48Because they will have to perform well in Tamil Nadu and Kerala
15:51if they have to, like, you know, survive and show that they are still existing
15:55at least in Southern India.
15:56Apoorva, what do you think?
15:58I think, like she rightly mentioned,
16:00yes, there is going to be a continuous alliance between the Congress and,
16:03you know, DMK because technically Rahul and Stalin are brothers.
16:09Anand Thambi.
16:11So, that is there.
16:13But I don't think there is going to be an alliance with Vijay and any of the other parties majorly.
16:20Because he has always maintained that, you know, he is going to be contesting
16:24and if there is going to be a same candidate face, then it's going to be Vijay who is going to be there.
16:28No, he said he is open to alliance.
16:29But is Vijay a lone wolf right now?
16:31Right now, yes.
16:32But is it going to change?
16:33Vijay is not even a wolf.
16:35Vijay wants to be a lion, not a wolf.
16:36Vijay wants to be a lion, not a wolf.
16:37Vijay wants to be a lion, not a wolf.
16:50Full stop.
16:51This is a viral movement from wolves.
16:53You are doomed.
16:54I am just saying he is a lion.
16:55Vijay fans are coming after you now.
16:56No, you called him a wolf.
16:57I am calling him a lion.
16:58Lying.
16:59The thing is that he wants to bring in a pride together.
17:01But what I see down there is sad.
17:03First of all, they need both committee members.
17:05They need proper things on the ground.
17:07They don't have that.
17:08It's difficult also, I think.
17:09And most importantly, even though Vijay is not openly saying that, he is being reflected
17:15as MGR.
17:17But hasn't he referred to MGR again and again in his speech?
17:18He refers but he never says I am MGR.
17:19If he says that, that will actually become a serious issue.
17:20Like victory he suggests.
17:21Same thing like we will have the same kind of repetition, 67, 77, 79 and such because
17:38nobody can dare say they will be the next MGR.
17:41Unlike junior NTR or something, it will not happen here.
17:43Trust me.
17:44People are especially…
17:45It's very emotional.
17:46Very, very emotional.
17:47Strong emotion.
17:48It's a strong connect they have.
17:49But what Vijay is…
17:50I don't know, like maybe it looks like Vijay wants to create a kind of ripple or something.
17:54But he wants to project himself as a chief minister.
17:57But is he that serious?
17:58Because he's got Sengotean.
18:00Okay.
18:01But what happened to OPS?
18:02You were there.
18:03You were a risk caller.
18:04Remember?
18:05Yeah.
18:06Campaign.
18:07And you were at the top of that band.
18:08You did campaign.
18:09No, I didn't.
18:10Jackfoot was a symbol.
18:11Yeah, Jackfoot.
18:12That's what I'm trying to say.
18:13How many OPS contested with OPS at that time?
18:1725.
18:18But you need to tell me your prediction.
18:20Akshita.
18:21What?
18:22Your prediction for the alliance.
18:23Let's move on to the next step.
18:25But I'm going to stick my neck out and say that I will not rule out the Congress and
18:29TVK alliance.
18:30And maybe in Feb they might even do it, take a step.
18:33Because anyways the India alliance is half broken.
18:35No, but it's suicide for the Congress.
18:37It is.
18:38Right?
18:39Like it's political suicide for the Congress.
18:40Like they take a chance if they go into a form and alliance with TVK.
18:42Even after winning.
18:43You have very few states.
18:44Simple.
18:45No, I'll tell you.
18:46I'll tell you what they have to lose.
18:47You're not coming back to me.
18:48You have very few states.
18:49Maybe devils advocate that if I'm going with DMK I'm coming back to power but I'm not
18:53in the ministry.
18:54But here if I come back to power with TVK I will have ministry also.
18:58There's nothing to lose.
18:59There's nothing to lose.
19:00But the chances are very less.
19:02So why would they take that risk?
19:03What is the fact of that TVK?
19:05How many people are going to win?
19:07That you tell me.
19:08It's not like they're going to become the chief minister.
19:10Even with Vijay it's very clear Vijay will be in the box.
19:12You're still going to be secondary.
19:13You're going to play second fiddle.
19:14But you're going to play second fiddle to a newcomer.
19:16But also you'll be in the cabinet right here.
19:18You don't know that.
19:19I'll tell you.
19:20I mean first for starters you have to ensure a win.
19:22And so for that you have to be really strong to be helping Vijay with boot level work etc.
19:26So you need to have that kind of backing.
19:28And then on top of that not just to ensure a victory then you have to say that okay you're
19:32chief minister but let us have a say on it.
19:34Tell me this Pramut now we are talking so much about Vijay.
19:36As Vijay considered a mainstream politician or still a half actor half politician because
19:40recently on twitter I saw I don't know how far it's through.
19:42People mocked him for an AI photo of Ambedkar.
19:45I don't know if you saw it.
19:46I don't know if you saw it.
19:47So is he completely a politician or still a half actor half Neta?
19:50He's acting in his movie Jarena Eagal right now.
19:52Last one.
19:53Yeah.
19:54Supposed to be last one but to some Kerala actor.
19:56Yeah Mamita.
19:57Mamita actually openly said.
20:00Apparently when they were shooting together she asked him are you quitting cinema and he
20:04said let me see how it goes in politics if it doesn't work I'll come back.
20:07It doesn't work like that.
20:08It's again the Rajnikanth factor right.
20:10It will not work like that.
20:11Exactly.
20:12So because for these actors it's a struggle to have funds no.
20:15I can simply say.
20:16Do you think Vijay will be another Kamal Haas?
20:19No I will simply say.
20:20No but you see Pawan Kalyan he's balancing the two.
20:22He has done a lot of falling down.
20:25Pawan Kalyan has taken the beating for so long.
20:28See the same.
20:29Right sir.
20:30Well yes but I'm saying that he's acting and doing politics.
20:32Why?
20:33Because you need those funds.
20:34Speak to any of these actors who are politicians.
20:36Yeah.
20:37They'll tell you one thing.
20:38They'll say I'm doing this because I need to fund it right now.
20:41Yeah Suresh Gobi has been saying he wants to quit from the ministry.
20:43Because he says that I don't have money.
20:44I didn't realise that it will be you know with so less income.
20:47It's not easy.
20:48Politics is not an easy job.
20:49I think we need to appreciate the fact that Vijay hasn't just you know spoken about it.
20:53He's walked the talk.
20:54He's entered politics.
20:55He's saying it's his last film.
20:56He's putting his focus on politics fully 100 percent.
20:59Which others have failed to do.
21:00So I think that yes we have to appreciate him.
21:03I don't think we should be judging that you know is he going to continue films.
21:05Because I think they need a source of income.
21:07Right.
21:08If he's in this for the long run he needs it.
21:09We are not judging but the thing he said that is that he didn't he said use the word
21:13which means I don't know.
21:15But I'm saying why is he said that?
21:17That means that his seriousness is being questioned there.
21:21But it's not seriousness.
21:23No the thing is let's say okay next election he doesn't do well.
21:27So he has to stick to it.
21:29You need to focus for 2031.
21:31But to stick to it where is the money going to come from?
21:33If you need to work for the people.
21:34You are up against a machine like the DLK which has also got huge money bags right.
21:38To take them on you have to have the money.
21:40But Ashita the reality is if you don't tell the people that I am going to be with you.
21:44You remember Vijay Khan Sakshita?
21:46You remember Vijay Khan?
21:47He was opposition party leader.
21:49And he performed well.
21:50But he would have country new.
21:52Yeah that's what I am telling you.
21:54You have to think of it in the long run.
21:56So you think of it in the long run he can't be broke and doing politics.
21:59No one is saying Vijay can't act in movies after this election.
22:05I think it's unfair to judge him for it.
22:06But he can't leave politics.
22:08Nobody is judging.
22:09He can't leave politics.
22:10Vijay Khan took 8 years.
22:11I will tell you one thing.
22:12I am saying that if he says Terila.
22:14He is saying basically that after this election if I need to continue I need to sustain myself.
22:18So the diplomatic answer would be I would be in both.
22:20Not Terila.
22:21He could have simply said no I will do this.
22:23Exactly.
22:24He said like I don't know let me see the election results and then I will decide.
22:27That's what he said.
22:28See Vijay will not be a major factor.
22:29But that again is a wrong message when you are saying that it depends on election results.
22:32See Vijay will not be a major factor.
22:34Because even Pawan Kalyan he has gained victory with the alliance that he has had.
22:43No I agree.
22:44He has done the right thing with that.
22:45So Vijay going with this move I don't think he is going to have much of an impact.
22:48No but see Pawan Kalyan doing it he wasn't the one who was calling the shots ideally.
22:54But Vijay is someone who wants to call the shots.
22:57No but maybe Pawan Kalyan started that.
22:59You understand the stature of the leaders.
23:01No no I would tell you something.
23:03Unlike you say instead of congress if Vijay goes with AIDMK.
23:06Yeah but that cannot happen right.
23:07Serious serious damages can occur.
23:09Yeah but BJP and AIDMK.
23:10No but that's consolidation.
23:11I tell you that AIDMK has a ground force.
23:13Absolutely.
23:14He is equal to DMK when it comes to both committees.
23:16Of course.
23:17Of course yeah.
23:18Which congress does not.
23:19Yes.
23:20Point number one.
23:21Point number two.
23:22They can project him.
23:24Like what AIDMK has done earlier.
23:26I am not taking MJF's name or something like that.
23:28Or Jailada's name.
23:29But the party has won with that formula.
23:32But will EPS agree to make it?
23:34He won't agree.
23:35Both of them want to become CM.
23:36You don't know.
23:37Please promote them.
23:38The alliance can come together.
23:39Vijay also wants to be CM.
23:40You don't know.
23:41EPS also wants to be CM.
23:42The same party.
23:43I will tell you the number one question I am asked in the newsroom.
23:44I am going to have the sambar.
23:45What's the question?
23:46I think my sambar looks better.
23:47What's the question?
23:48The question I am always asked in the newsroom after the Bihar election results.
23:49Is Vijay going to be like PK?
23:50Answer no.
23:51Terriela.
23:52Terriela.
23:53Terriela.
23:54Exactly.
23:55Terriela.
23:56For now he seems very serious.
23:58For now he has.
23:59I am not sure serious.
24:00I am saying performance wise.
24:01Performance wise it is a big question because the only strength right now what he has got
24:05is Sengotian.
24:06But Sengotian also has brought in trouble along with him.
24:07Because now it is an ego issue for AIDNK.
24:08Remember that is what I brought in OPS.
24:09Twenty people contested against him.
24:10OPS with the same name.
24:11And having op on his sibling as a name in Tamil Nadu is not a common one.
24:12Imagine where they brought those people from.
24:13This is a common trick in Tamil Nadu.
24:14But he seems very serious.
24:15He seems very serious.
24:16For now he has.
24:17No.
24:18I am saying performance wise.
24:19Performance wise.
24:20Performance wise it is a big question because the only strength right now what he has got
24:21is Sengotian.
24:22But Sengotian also has brought in trouble along with him.
24:25Because now it is an ego issue for AIDNK.
24:28Remember that is what I brought in OPS.
24:30Twenty people contested against him.
24:32OPS with the same name.
24:33And having op on his sibling as a name in Tamil Nadu is not a common one.
24:37Imagine where they brought those people from.
24:39This is a common trick in Tamil Nadu.
24:41Speaking of scenes.
24:42They keep doing this.
24:43Performance not to this level.
24:44Not to this level.
24:45But we are talking of performance.
24:46How much of OPS Vijay will divide?
24:49Who will Vijay hurt?
24:51That is where I want to say.
24:53PMK they will have trouble.
24:55NTK they will have trouble.
24:57ADMK.
24:58I am coming to that.
24:59Why?
25:00Because the young people.
25:02Youth.
25:03That seems to be the target.
25:04And every other program I went for Vijay it is only youth.
25:08Uncontrollable youth.
25:09Alright.
25:10And AIDNK.
25:11Definitely AIDNK because.
25:12Not DMK.
25:13I don't think so.
25:14Because MGR is not from DMK.
25:15I want to add in here.
25:17Talking about performance.
25:18Are we overestimating or exaggerating Vijay's presence politically?
25:21No I don't think so.
25:22No let me tell you.
25:23I don't think so.
25:24Because in Tamil Nadu the symbols matter a lot.
25:26Rising sun and two leaf are like people know them.
25:29Back of my mind.
25:30It's etched in the brain.
25:31It's also the ideology.
25:32The core ideology.
25:33One second.
25:34One second.
25:352.34 constituency matters.
25:36Ideology.
25:37Ideology matters.
25:382.34 one second.
25:39For an example in the.
25:40Let's say Arwa Kuruchian remotest constituency.
25:42If Vijay's symbol for example is a cup.
25:44Will people recognize the cup in the last two months?
25:47They only know the.
25:48They know the face.
25:49Yeah they know the face.
25:50The candidate is not Vijay.
25:51Exactly.
25:52It might be person A, B.
25:53So that also matters.
25:54In 90s.
25:55In 90s.
25:56Interestingly.
25:57In 90s people contested in two leaves in Bangalore.
25:59And won the compression elections.
26:00Yeah.
26:01That's how symbol matters.
26:02So what I'm saying.
26:03No no no.
26:04Let me finish.
26:05What I'm saying is.
26:06Are we overestimating Vijay because.
26:08It's only him.
26:09He can't contest 234 seats.
26:11Okay I have answers to this also.
26:12While talking in Madurai in his conference.
26:14He said Madurai South Vijay.
26:16And we all got a shock.
26:17So is he going to contest from there.
26:18Yeah yeah.
26:19Then he says Madurai Central Vijay.
26:20Madurai North Vijay.
26:21Madurai East Vijay.
26:22Everywhere Vijay has got it.
26:23But Ramodhat Sofi for a speech.
26:24When I'm pressing the button.
26:25I need to recognize.
26:26I'm coming to that.
26:27And also will this crowd convert.
26:28We saw big rallies in Bihar.
26:30I'm coming to that.
26:31Senghor Tayyan two days back.
26:32We have that bite also.
26:33He said.
26:34That we are going to get a symbol.
26:36Yeah.
26:37That is going to shock entire Tamil Nadu.
26:38Correct.
26:39Is it exaggerating?
26:40I don't know.
26:41I think they'll need to get a symbol that.
26:42Somehow people recognize with Vijay.
26:44So it could be.
26:45That should be approved by election commission.
26:46What would it be?
26:47I don't know.
26:48I'm just speculating here on what the symbol can be.
26:49This is where his social media team comes in.
26:50Vijay has a very strong social media team.
26:51Yeah I agree.
26:52Very adequate.
26:53And they're very good at it.
26:54Even as good as DMK.
26:55I don't think DMK has or any other party has that much strong social media team.
26:56That's true.
26:57I doubt that DMK does.
26:58I've been out the process of it Salo.
26:59Ashita is famous for being trolled on social media.
27:00That's how many other parties.
27:01The names I've received.
27:02But anyway.
27:03But when it comes to Vijay.
27:04I don't know.
27:05I don't know.
27:06I don't know.
27:07I don't know.
27:08I don't know.
27:09I don't know.
27:10I don't know.
27:11But when it comes to Vijay.
27:12Popularizing something is entirely.
27:13It's not a problem for them.
27:14Converting them into vote.
27:15Just like you mentioned.
27:16That's a very big challenge for them.
27:17They think they can bring Sangotian.
27:18Sangotian is being shown like Bhishma.
27:19But the problem is that he is going to contest against the entire Mahabharati.
27:20Yeah.
27:21Okay Bhishma was with Mahabharati.
27:22But now he's going to contest in a different manner.
27:23And here DMK.
27:24You know we are talking Vijay is going to be an influence.
27:26DMK is a major influence.
27:27It's already there.
27:28I don't see anti-incubacy so far.
27:29Okay.
27:30Interestingly.
27:31Am I pushing my neck out?
27:32I don't know.
27:33But on the ground it's entirely different.
27:34Because whenever there's an issue occurring.
27:35But is it silent?
27:36Which is what we mentioned.
27:37That silently maybe.
27:38Because like I said you've seen it in Tamil Nadu.
27:39He's not the same thing.
27:40But it's not the same thing.
27:41But it's not the same thing.
27:42But it's not the same thing.
27:43And it's the same thing.
27:44And it's not the same thing.
27:45That's the same thing.
27:46It's not the same thing.
27:47I don't know.
27:48But it's not the same thing.
27:49But it's not the same thing.
27:50It's not the same thing.
27:56No.
27:57But can I bring a question in?
27:58Because he started on the Mahabharata and Bhishma reference.
28:01Should I take that back?
28:02No.
28:03Wait.
28:04Do you think in a way Vijay will end up being Karna?
28:07Oh.
28:08No.
28:09No.
28:10I love Karna.
28:11So you don't like Vijay?
28:13I love Karna.
28:14Vijay is not a low.
28:15I admire Karna more than Vijay.
28:17I would have to agree that.
28:18Okay.
28:19For his values.
28:20Why can't you say Arjuna?
28:21Why do you have to go to Karna?
28:22No.
28:23That's exactly why.
28:24That's exactly why he's going for polls.
28:25Yeah.
28:26Kerala.
28:27No.
28:28Just before that, one update which is that in BJP we have seen the election in charge change
28:30for Tamil Nadu.
28:31From Bhai Jayant Pander, it's now become Piyush Goyal.
28:33Yeah.
28:34What is BJP's chances in Tamil Nadu?
28:35You think their voucher will grow?
28:37I will also give you the answer from the present moment.
28:40Because they changed their strategy.
28:41Let me tell you something.
28:42Even like before Piyush Goyal, there was Annamalai there.
28:44Annamalai was doing very well.
28:46He was actually segregating the, you know, completely bringing the votes.
28:48But his game was long run, no?
28:50He wasn't looking at 2026.
28:51He said I look at it long game which is why I don't want an alliance.
28:54BJP's changed track on that.
28:55They've said that we will do it.
28:56He wants to be here for 20 years and then come back alone to power.
28:58Yeah.
28:59Instead they've changed it.
29:00Exactly.
29:01They've changed the track which is why Nainar Nagendran has come alliance.
29:02They want an elect win now.
29:03What he did was strengthening the party on the ground.
29:05Yeah.
29:06So it's worked.
29:07It worked.
29:08But can Nainar take it forward?
29:09Nainar is only secondary.
29:10Nainar does not want to become the chief minister.
29:11Okay.
29:12It is EPS.
29:13Nainar has agreed to it.
29:14So the party literally is handed over to EPS.
29:15Yes.
29:16Fine.
29:17But I'm asking BJP alone.
29:18I'm not talking about the alliance.
29:19I'm talking about BJP alone vote share wise.
29:20You're saying Annamalai has grown the party.
29:22So vote share wise, will they grow now?
29:24That depends on Annamalai because if Annamalai says-
29:26Again Annamalai.
29:27Annamalai is now just a BJP leader.
29:28See, you're talking about that silent, what do you call that?
29:30Anti-intervention.
29:31That is also playing over there.
29:33Annamalai supporters are not silent.
29:35Deha, for now.
29:36Remember how it was when Annamalai was active and now?
29:39What is happening to Nainar again?
29:40So what's the question that constantly comes up with Annamalai?
29:42If he's so popular, why hasn't he won an election?
29:44That depends.
29:45I mean, good question.
29:46I can put the same question for Vijay also now.
29:48Vijay hasn't contested.
29:49No, Annamalai is contested.
29:50I'm saying he's contested twice.
29:51I will ask the same question again after the election's end.
29:53Okay?
29:54No, no, no.
29:55He's saying Vijay will not win.
29:56I didn't say that.
29:57I didn't say that.
29:58I didn't say that.
29:59No, no, no.
30:00No, no.
30:01No, no.
30:02No, no.
30:03No, no.
30:04I'm singing a Vijay song now.
30:06But anyway.
30:07Ha.
30:08So what do you think of BJP?
30:09If Annamalai is such a big factor, can he actually swing it for them?
30:12And why hasn't he ever won an election then?
30:14Simple.
30:15The moment when Annamalai came over, that was very early.
30:17We were on the ground at that point.
30:19So like there was not much of popularity.
30:20He built the ground.
30:21But then he was moved from state politics to central politics.
30:24Yeah.
30:25Not that easy.
30:26He was in charge.
30:27The voters actually change completely.
30:29Their mindset change when it comes to MP election.
30:31But we have to give it to him.
30:32Dilli.
30:33MPs.
30:34You know this.
30:35Sir, tell me something.
30:36Do you think it was a bad move for the BJP to remove Annamalai as the Tamil Nadu BJP chief?
30:39If he was so popular, if he was helping the party grow, was it a mistake to bring in Nainar
30:43Nagendra and go with an alliance?
30:44Should they have stuck to the long run, stuck to Annamalai?
30:46Was that the right formula?
30:47I would simply say BJP wants MLEs from Tamil Nadu.
30:50And it will only happen if they have ADNK support.
30:52That's what I said.
30:53So you believe that what they have done now is the right thing?
30:55I'll tell you.
30:56It's for BJP to decide on that.
30:58But I'll tell you that I told you earlier, if Vijay had gone ahead with ADNK, there would
31:02have been some certain damages.
31:03And this is what BJP is depending on right now.
31:05Because last time they got four MLEs.
31:06I have a question.
31:08What will be the role of these guys?
31:10I know that they will not make a huge factor.
31:12Tirumavadavan and Seeman in elections.
31:15Seeman, I'm very interested.
31:17Before Vijay, Seeman had a good chance.
31:19Around 8% he had.
31:20Everyone was talking about him being the IT thing.
31:22No, he was growing also.
31:24Because that actual people who want to listen to political ideology, he actually brought in Tamil sentiment.
31:30Not Dravidian sentiment.
31:31He wanted to counter that.
31:33But what happened is that most of the people, I won't say most of the people, a good section
31:40which was influenced by Seeman, the moment Vijay started the party, completely transformed.
31:45So even Seeman voters have moved to TBK.
31:47So he's no longer a big factor.
31:49I wouldn't say so.
31:50That's the problem.
31:51If you're going to have PMK, you're going to have NTK.
31:54NTK so far wants to only contest alone.
31:56And you're going to have Vijay and everything.
31:58Imagine one alliance is having the votes intact.
32:01And the other alliances are separated.
32:03Got it.
32:04Who's going to win?
32:05No, but at the end of the day, do we really think that what is adoration for say a movie actor, for Talapati,
32:12is it going to go into votes?
32:15Because like you said, most of them are young crowds that come there.
32:17Most of them who come there.
32:18I'll answer for Pramod.
32:19From what he said, no.
32:20They're left.
32:21Coming back to the last final point, Avchita, that we are missing that BJP till now had a
32:279% vote share recently.
32:29So when they've contested alone on a four-party fight, now without Annamalai, I think they will
32:35go back to 2.5 or 3% is my presumption.
32:38Because he had a big factor to play.
32:41He was like a cult within the BJP.
32:43But you know, I felt there was a very extreme view.
32:46Either people loved him or hated him.
32:47So you divided people like that.
32:49He became popular.
32:50He became popular.
32:51He became popular.
32:52He became very popular.
32:53He still is very popular.
32:54So you also have to realize that the moment he's left the role of being the president,
32:59the party of course will receive some damage.
33:01Like 4% vote share definitely would go up.
33:03I think they're willing to take that in, hoping that A.I.D.M.K. will be able to help.
33:06That won't count.
33:07Like I said, that's for the BJP to decide what's that he they want to take.
33:10Before we move to Kerala, I'm just going to quickly because Pramod's not going to do it.
33:12I'm going to sum up his three key takeaways because he won't say it.
33:16From what he said so far, edge to DMK.
33:18He won't say it but that's what I'm sensing.
33:20No anti-incumbency.
33:21Vijay, not much of a factor because his votes are going to be scattered.
33:25These are the takeaways I'm getting from what Pramod has said.
33:27Conditions apply.
33:28He won't say it so I'm saying it for him.
33:30Let's move now to Kerala.
33:31The other state where there is a lot that happened over the weekend.
33:34Yes.
33:35Should be local polls.
33:36There was a huge focus on it because obviously it's a pre-mandate to the mega-mandate.
33:40And also we take elections very seriously.
33:42Even a by-election also we go all out.
33:44Which is great.
33:45It's good actually.
33:46So tell me, was this a result you expected?
33:48Honestly not.
33:49Really?
33:50Yes.
33:51Because even if there's anti-incumbency, even if the left is in power or in the opposition,
33:56local body polls always gave an edge to the left because their cadder strength is very strong.
34:01They go down on ground.
34:02That's how they function.
34:03It's a cadder party.
34:04So in that way, okay, there could be some setbacks.
34:07Some corporations, yes, looked a bit swinging here and there.
34:11But I didn't expect this big of a setback for the left for the local body polls.
34:15And the Congress making such progress.
34:18It's happened like once or twice if you look in Kerala's history when Congress have had an edge for the local body polls.
34:23So this is huge for the Congress.
34:26It happened in 2015, sorry, 2010 when the Congress got an edge.
34:30And 2011 they came back to power, but it was very tight.
34:3468 for the left and 72 for the Congress.
34:37That was just like one seat extra than the majority.
34:40And that was left in power.
34:41So even when they were in opposition, they had 68 seats.
34:44So it was very tight.
34:45So I don't know if this is going to...
34:48If this is exactly what it will happen.
34:51Yes, because now initially when I saw the results as a whole, I felt like, okay, the Congress have a massive edge.
34:55But when you look at the seats now, this vote share divides the assembly seats into 80 for the Congress, 58 for the left and 2 for the NDA.
35:04Should you tell me this?
35:05Left also has a rule that post two elections, the third elections ticket will not be given.
35:10Yes, but that will be...
35:11The chief minister has already fought two elections.
35:13Yeah, that will be waived this time is what we run.
35:15Because they want to go all out.
35:16If they lose power in Kerala, left becomes invisible in the country.
35:20So they are going to go with Pinarai's face.
35:21Pinarai is still a doubt.
35:23Because if at all, again, if he loses election with his face, then that's going to affect him also personally.
35:29So that way, even long ago, he was saying that he's still deciding that party will take a call.
35:34But I heard that two seats will be abolished this time.
35:38Which are these two seats?
35:39Somebody like a KK Shailaja might be given one more term.
35:43And Pinarai.
35:44Pinarai, no.
35:45There are many more people.
35:46Like people who are very popular in their constituencies.
35:48And one more thing with the left is that their MLAs are very popular in their constituencies.
35:52So you never know.
35:53I feel that I still give an edge to the Congress because 10 years is too much of a time in Kerala.
35:59That there is a whole deal of anti-incumbency in Kerala.
36:01Very much.
36:02Very much anti-incumbency.
36:03And the last time was a very pro-incumbency that you never see in Kerala.
36:07Because it was Covid.
36:08They had multiple disasters like Nepal, floods.
36:11The management was really good.
36:12Why is it anti-incumbency now?
36:15Is it just 10 years or are there some issues that people like Shabriman and everyone keeps talking?
36:19One more question to that.
36:20One of the leaders was telling us that after delimitation, the OAT division has helped LDF.
36:27Yes, exactly.
36:28That's what my point also.
36:29LDF will still have the OATs intact.
36:31Whether you have anti-incumbency or all this.
36:33Exactly.
36:34So we have had three elections after that delimitation.
36:36When the constituencies.
36:38In that, leftists never got anything less than 68.
36:41Yeah.
36:42It was 68 in 2011.
36:43In 2016 it was 91.
36:452021 it became 99.
36:47So around 40 seats.
36:49To an extent it's sure seats of LDF.
36:51So how is the vote share?
36:52Even in this municipal election?
36:53There's no major difference.
36:54It's just like 3, 4, 5 percent difference.
36:57There's no major difference in the vote share to be honest.
36:59And is BJP a player in this election, in this state election?
37:04Because also, this is the first state the minority's Christians might move towards BJP.
37:09Because they are doing a lot of outreach programs.
37:11Yes.
37:12We have seen Prime Minister celebrating Christmas last year also.
37:13Maybe this year also he will celebrate.
37:14So is that a state that the Christians will side with BJP?
37:17Will that work?
37:18There is a shift in the Christian votes.
37:20In certain areas specifically.
37:21To BJP.
37:22To BJP, yes.
37:23The only state where this will be happening.
37:25See what's happening.
37:26North East.
37:27But I think the recent instance like the nuns arrest in Chattasgarh.
37:30Yeah.
37:31It has again like you know.
37:32It has again confused the Christians a bit.
37:35And the Congress has been trying to like you know.
37:37It's their vote bang.
37:38Like if the Christians start voting for BJP then it's going to affect the Congress party.
37:41Left is not affected by it.
37:42Okay.
37:43Minorities always vote for Congress in Kerala.
37:45So.
37:46But I think there is a slight shift.
37:48I don't know if that shift is enough for them to win seats for the assembly elections.
37:52But tell me this.
37:53We are talking about left but opposition UDF.
37:55Yeah.
37:56Like how Sid Ramay and DK Shukmar are fighting for the jail.
37:58Yeah.
37:59Will it repeat?
38:00We have more than two contenders.
38:01You have only two.
38:02We have more than two.
38:03We have Ramesh Chanitala.
38:04I think it's at least normal in a state that's going to pose.
38:06Your state please.
38:07Which is good for us.
38:09Sorry.
38:10Contenders for an upcoming election.
38:12Your elections are done and people are fighting.
38:14We wake up and there is breaking news.
38:15It's good for us.
38:16We have more to two on.
38:17But in a way like.
38:18Yeah.
38:19Coming back.
38:20So there is Satishan.
38:21There is the PCC.
38:22Is he also a player?
38:23No.
38:24No.
38:25He is not a player.
38:26So there is Ramesh Chanitala.
38:27There is KC Wayne Gopal.
38:28Satishan.
38:29Three people.
38:30So it's a three way fight.
38:31There were others also in the contest but they have all been sidelined very smartly.
38:32So it's just three people now.
38:33Stick your neck out and choose who would be the next CM if UDF comes to power.
38:35She won't do it.
38:36I am telling you.
38:37No.
38:38No.
38:39I know her choice.
38:40That's why I am asking.
38:44So I can't take a name.
38:45See even if you notice in Karnataka as well when it comes to local body.
38:49One second.
38:50One second.
38:51What are the factors that led to this kind of anti incumbency that is right now ongoing?
38:56See Shabarimala was a factor but there was this interesting factor.
39:00The ward where Shabarimala is located.
39:02The Panjaya.
39:03All of it has been won by the left.
39:06No.
39:07So there are.
39:08I would say.
39:09Go ahead.
39:10So even in Karnataka if you notice even when BJP was in power.
39:13When it comes to local body urban election.
39:15It is always Congress which has an upper hand.
39:18They used to win huge numbers.
39:19But when it comes to the next level of election.
39:21State.
39:22When you have a state election.
39:23That's when the vote gets divided.
39:25Okay.
39:26The vote is not intact.
39:27And it is majorly because of internal politics.
39:29No.
39:30So then it's not necessarily an indicator.
39:31No.
39:32Most of the places when it comes to South India whether it's Kerala or Karnataka.
39:35On ground it's good.
39:36But when it comes to the next level of election.
39:38That's where they go from.
39:39Okay.
39:40So there are three polarizing topics in Kerala that people keep talking of.
39:43Shabarimala.
39:44Love Jihad.
39:45Okay.
39:46And the third I'd say is what's happening in North Kerala.
39:49Constant back and forth between left and right that you constantly see.
39:52I was talking to a few Christian leaders in Kerala.
39:56They were also worried about love jihad.
39:59That's my point.
40:00That actually nobody realizes it's stemmed from Kerala.
40:03By Christian groups.
40:04Who took on the Muslim groups.
40:06So there's a narrative of love jihad against this election topic.
40:10Are these actually reflecting in elections or is it just you know.
40:13In terms of Christian communities vote getting shifted to BJP.
40:16Yes that is a factor there.
40:17No but there's three polarizing issues.
40:18Shabarimala.
40:19Love Jihad.
40:20No political killings we have not had political killings.
40:23Because CPM is in the power.
40:25And they have had multiple discussions with the political parties.
40:28Especially in Karnur.
40:29So in the last few years.
40:30It has reduced.
40:31We have not really had at least in the last five years.
40:33I think once or.
40:35Because we used to keep hearing.
40:36Yeah we used to keep hearing.
40:37We have reported Karyakartas being killed.
40:39Either RSS or Karyakartas.
40:40Yeah that's what I'm saying.
40:41They are not only leaders.
40:42Yeah that's what I'm saying.
40:43Killings do still happen.
40:44No but not at this.
40:45It's come down.
40:46Like very rarely nowadays.
40:47Like very rarely.
40:48The numbers have come down.
40:49Other issues.
40:50Shabarimala.
40:51Love Jihad.
40:52Are they factors?
40:53Love Jihad.
40:54It's not evidently out there in Love Jihad factor.
40:56But I feel like.
40:57On the ground.
40:58Especially among Christian groups.
41:00That's a factor.
41:01Like there's a growing hatred.
41:03For Muslim community.
41:04On the side of Christian.
41:06And it has got to coastal Karnataka also.
41:08Tell me this.
41:09Yes yes.
41:10Tell me this.
41:11We have 90 days left for the polls.
41:12Which way is Tharoor going?
41:13This morning Musu has tweeted an analysis piece.
41:15You are from Trivandrum.
41:16He's from Trivandrum.
41:17And you have done an exclusive interview with him before.
41:20Which way is Tharoor going in the next three months?
41:22Poor Shibi.
41:23A question that nobody can answer.
41:25Areila.
41:26Areila.
41:27Correct.
41:28But like we saw this.
41:29Is the BJP looking to fish?
41:32In troubled waters?
41:33All this.
41:34I don't think so in Trivandrum as of now.
41:36Because Trivandrum.
41:38Because BJP.
41:40Because BJP.
41:41He's trying to be diplomatic.
41:42No.
41:43BJP is already gaining ground on your own you're suggesting.
41:45I don't think they will need Tharoor for in Trivandrum.
41:47Let us say he joins.
41:48Is he bringing any X factor.
41:49Any addition to the BJP.
41:51To the party.
41:52Some neutral votes maybe.
41:53There are a lot of youngsters who like his oratory skills and everything.
41:56That's also one reason why he wins in Trivandrum itself.
41:59Like the coastal votes.
42:01That's how he takes the lead.
42:03And also neutral votes.
42:04How does the local Congress look at him?
42:06Are they not trying to tell him.
42:08Listen draw the line.
42:09They need to be.
42:10I think they are not very happy with him at all.
42:12At all.
42:13State limit that's taking you more.
42:15It's come to a point they don't care.
42:16To be honest.
42:17Shibi.
42:18One question to you.
42:19How about the star power.
42:20How about Mohanlag, Mamuti.
42:22Will they have any kind of impact?
42:23We have seen that Mohanlag was tilted towards BJP.
42:26Yes.
42:27So there was a time he started writing certain blogs and all.
42:30It looked like he was favoring the BJP.
42:33There's an insider talk that he is with the BJP.
42:36Mamuti has always been a left supporter.
42:39So.
42:40But quiet I think.
42:41Very quiet.
42:42But he's the chairman of Kairali, the CPIM run channel.
42:44So.
42:45That's evidently out there.
42:46But you don't see both of them commenting on anything.
42:48They did not even comment on the actresses all.
42:50Okay.
42:51So you expect them to comment on.
42:52Will there be star campaigners coming out and campaigning for any of the leaders?
42:55No.
42:56Like some of these youngsters.
42:57Yes.
42:58They do have their pull.
42:59Some of them.
43:00But.
43:01Vijay goes there.
43:02Vijay.
43:03No more stampate please.
43:05Okay.
43:06So let's.
43:07I'm wrapping this up.
43:08Before I wrap this up quickly.
43:09From each of you I'm going to take.
43:11And please don't be boring.
43:12Please give me an answer.
43:13Yes.
43:14So you will win as things stand right now in Kerala and in Tamil Nadu.
43:17Should I start with Abdul?
43:18Yes.
43:19I'll start with Abdul because I know both of you won't give me answers.
43:21No I agree.
43:22I think Stalin will get back.
43:23So DMK?
43:24Yeah DMK.
43:25And for Kerala.
43:26And the same they will also repeat.
43:27And DF?
43:28Yeah.
43:29Okay.
43:30DMK UDF.
43:31DMK UDF.
43:32DMK UDF.
43:33For the moment DMK UDF.
43:35Yeah DMK UDF.
43:36It's going to be unanimous I think.
43:38DMK UDF.
43:39Wow.
43:41Wow.
43:42Okay so as of now most of us except Abdul Ubali's LDF Pinaray Vijayan will return.
43:49Most of us believe that in Tamil Nadu the DMK has the edge.
43:54They've got a mammoth machine that's in place.
43:57An election machine and otherwise also it's very tough to beat them.
44:01And the only way, correct me if I'm wrong Pramod, that the DMK actually could perhaps
44:06be taken off power or the seat of power in the next few months.
44:10It's like you said alliances.
44:12If you see everyone coming together consolidating DMK versus the others.
44:16If that happens then there's a strong chance.
44:19Vijay right now is very much a factor.
44:21There may be a lot of questions saying you know is the media hyping him up.
44:24To me not at all.
44:25He must and is being discussed for a certain reason.
44:28Because already there's talk of him having a double digit vote share.
44:32How much that will be again?
44:33It's only December.
44:34We have three more months to go.
44:35That number could go up.
44:36That number could come down.
44:38We'll have to see how he deals with his election strategy.
44:40But he is very much a factor.
44:42AIA, DMK, BJP they've kind of got to get their act together.
44:44If they really want to ensure that they take on the DMK.
44:49And the mammoth, the monster that is DMK really in Tamil Nadu.
44:52They're going to have to get their act together.
44:53Get all parties together.
44:54You can't have bickering with him because it's a bad image.
44:57So that essentially is what Tamil Nadu could look like next few months.
45:01I keep adding this caveat.
45:02The next few months things could change drastically.
45:05As far as Kerala goes I think the local elections is a sort of indicator.
45:09By that length to that extent will we see a wave election at this point should be unlikely.
45:16Yes.
45:17No wave election but I think definitely in favour of the UDF.
45:20The BJP is gaining.
45:22They're doing better maybe than they've done previously.
45:25So these are two elements.
45:26One more point.
45:27Sure.
45:28BJP won Trivandrum Corporation.
45:30But in the other places they haven't really performed well.
45:33Like they lost a municipality.
45:35They won also.
45:36We didn't talk about Rajeshadar Shekhar impact on the BJP party.
45:41We are talking about division in Congress.
45:44There's a much bigger division in politics happening in BJP.
45:47Just because it's not the bigger you know party there.
45:50We are not.
45:51It's not out there.
45:52I have to wrap this up.
45:53I have run out of time.
45:54So that we can all eat our now cold lunch.
45:56Yes.
45:57And enjoy whatever is left of it right now.
45:59But thank you all very much.
46:00I know you'll all be headed back to your respective states.
46:02But we're going to keep doing this.
46:04And give you a sense of what's really happening on the ground.
46:06I think rather than sitting in the studios.
46:08We're better off hearing it from them.
46:09When they're on the ground.
46:10Telling you what's really happening.
46:11What's the political mode.
46:13But this gives you a sense of why India today is a number one election channel.
46:17We've got our ears.
46:18Our feet.
46:19Our eyes.
46:20Whatever you want on the ground.
46:21To give you a sense of who's really ahead.
46:23What are the issues that matter.
46:25Thanks very much for tuning in.
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