- 2 weeks ago
In this edition of Democratic Newsroom, the focus is on the two poll-bound states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, where assembly elections will be held next year.
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00:00Hello and welcome. Namaskaram, namaskara, vanakkam.
00:04You're joining us for a very special broadcast of SoSouth.
00:07I'm essentially gate crashing the show of my colleagues
00:10because they've come down to Noida.
00:12They're all here in our Noida studio for a very special 60 minute broadcast
00:17that we're getting to you where we're focusing completely on what's happening
00:20in the two pole-bound states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
00:24You don't need any introduction but for what it's worth,
00:26Shibimol, our Kerala girl is here in Noida.
00:30We've got Apoorva from Andhra.
00:33Pramod Madhav, I know your name, Pramod, Pramod is joining us.
00:36He's come all the way from Chennai.
00:39Nagachand Dwarakarnath, of course, our Kannada boy, is here, Kannadiga boy rather.
00:43And we've got Sagar Raj also who's joining us
00:46and finally Abdul Bashir from Telangana.
00:48So thanks all of you for joining us just so that you get a bit of a flavor of the South.
00:52I've ensured that we can get the best of South Indian food here.
00:55This is the best we can do.
00:56This is literally like Abhufi, we have kukma, idli, dosa, two chutneys, three chutneys, the sambar.
01:02So looks a perfect plate.
01:03And since you love Karnataka sambar, I've kept two for you.
01:05Yeah, it's the best sambar.
01:06I can give mine also.
01:07You can give yours also, sure.
01:09I think most people will give off their sambar for you.
01:11So we've ensured a spread so they feel right at home.
01:14Don't compare it, of course, to what you get in your own home states
01:17because I don't know if it'll match up.
01:19But let's get right down to it.
01:20And what we're looking at in this broadcast is obviously a lot of hot idli, dosa,
01:26a side of politics because everyone's going to be looking at what's happening in 2026
01:29in Tamil Nadu and Puduchiri, of course, as well as Kerala.
01:33We'll start with Tamil Nadu.
01:34And I'll throw you right up on the mat, Pramod.
01:38Who's winning right now as things stand?
01:41If I simply answer that question, I will be in a lot of trouble.
01:45You're in Noida now.
01:46You don't need to worry.
01:47I'd have to go back to Tamil Nadu.
01:48And considering X and everything, that'll become serious trouble.
01:52But I would say that for now, the lead seems to be for the present government
01:56because there are multiple forces but they're still emerging.
02:02First and foremost is the alliance.
02:03They need to get a proper alliance.
02:05And second thing is that like the dynamics over the alliance itself earlier,
02:08the opposition wanted to do something but it's doing something different right now.
02:13And it completely changed within a span of two months or so.
02:16So when it comes to Tamil Nadu, I mean, it's going to be a very interesting election.
02:22And I would simply say it depends first and foremost on the alliance.
02:26And everybody's betting on, I know you're going to go there, the Vijay factor.
02:30But I will still hold my cards back.
02:33It's almost like blackjack over here.
02:35So I will slowly.
02:37Considering Tamil Nadu and Dravidian politics, I want to use the word blackjack.
02:39He was talking about alliance.
02:40But Prambo, tell me this.
02:41This recent issue of Praveen Chakravarti meeting Vijay over the same idli dosa for breakfast for two hours.
02:47Did he have the blessings of the high command to meet or was it just in personal capacity that he met?
02:51And also is it true that the Congress is trying to get close to Vijay?
02:55So I will.
02:56The second part is true.
02:58They are trying to get close.
02:59Yes.
02:59But the first part is that whatever Praveen Chakravarti did, it resonated more in Delhi than Tamil Nadu.
03:06But wasn't Tamil Nadu Congress upset?
03:07Yes.
03:08I'll come to that.
03:08The PCC was not even kept in the loop.
03:09I'll come to that.
03:11The thing is that we have Tamil Nadu Congress Committee and we have a president over there, Silvi Paranthagai.
03:15We also have very senior leaders, B.H. Dumbra, Makati Dumbra, who did not have reacted on this matter so far for some particular reason.
03:22But the important aspect is that Praveen Chakravarti, he went, he met Vijay.
03:27We have like video proofs and everything for that.
03:29But later, he is kind of giving us different statements right now.
03:33The only aspect is that after what happened in Karur, Rahul Gandhi spoke to Vijay.
03:38Yeah.
03:38It was confirmed by Vijay's team.
03:40But after that, nobody from Congress wants to talk about it.
03:44That should answer my question.
03:45So am I going to then look at it as Tamil Nadu Congress, not really foreign alliance, but National Congress foreign alliance?
03:51No, no.
03:52The thing is that, okay, these are all things that are supposed to happen only after January, but I'm giving everything.
03:57Why have I come here?
03:58But I also feel, Akshita, that Congress sending signals to Vijay will give them a more bargaining power with the DMK.
04:06This could be just that at the end of the day.
04:08It could be pure optics.
04:09Those things will roll out.
04:11But the first thing is that they want to use Vijay for Kerala and Puditsheri.
04:15What do you mean?
04:16That is his popularity.
04:17We are not voting, looking at film stars, we are voting politically.
04:20And Vijay, I mean, is Vijay a photo in Kamalabad?
04:23Vijay has fans, but I don't think anybody in Kamalabad will vote just because Vijay is having a...
04:27What happened in the recent election?
04:28Suresh Gobi you're talking about?
04:30But Suresh Gobi has been in politics for a very long time.
04:34He was working in Trishur for a long time.
04:35The recent election, what happened to BJP and other things, the dynamics kind of changed, right?
04:39That is okay, but I am talking about an actor, voting for an actor, seeing his stardom.
04:43I will simply say that Congress believes that stardom will work.
04:48So they are using Vijay in Kerala?
04:50They want to.
04:52Shibbi?
04:53That is...
04:53I mean, this is the first time I'm hearing this.
04:55Yeah, it's surprising.
04:56Political dynamics is totally different compared to Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
05:00Yeah, yeah.
05:01Tamil Nadu has always had a track record of having film stars who have entered into politics and making a name for themselves.
05:06No, so we haven't...
05:07It's there.
05:08In Kerala also, it's there.
05:09Not that it isn't...
05:10But I mean, I don't see a Vijay.
05:12No, not Vijay.
05:13Even in Suresh Gobi's case, I would say that it was a long-term effort.
05:17Like, he was in the conference for like 15 years in Trishur itself.
05:21He contested thrice to win that seat.
05:23We have had multiple stars failing in politics in Kerala.
05:26Everything is fine.
05:27So it's all political.
05:28But the thing is that...
05:29Vijay do have fans.
05:30I agree.
05:30Kerala is crazy.
05:31It is being sold is that Kerala is crazy about Vijay.
05:33That's true.
05:34And they want to see that if it will work.
05:37That's the only fact.
05:38But I think...
05:39I think we're all forgetting eating the Igles and the Samba.
05:42I know it's not as good as what you get at...
05:44I know it's not as good as what you get at home.
05:47But please, we made the effort.
05:49Thank you for the effort.
05:50If you notice, Kerala has the highest RSS shakas and highest number of right-wing activists.
05:56Still, they are unable to come to power.
05:58Because it cannot be converted into wars.
06:00Similarly, it will not have any kind of influence through Kerala.
06:04See, we are not talking about people who knows politics.
06:06We are talking about people who are influenced by Vijay.
06:09No, so like youngsters.
06:10I don't think so.
06:11Like youngsters.
06:11You can see, stardom is something that will not impact much.
06:15Because we have seen Pawan Kalyan.
06:16Initial stages, how he had performed.
06:19But focusing completely on stardom, I think people will not buy it in the south.
06:23In Telangana, that will not work.
06:24We had Chiranjeevi, we had Pawan Kalyan.
06:26I am not saying that stardom is going to work.
06:29I am saying that it is a strategy plan.
06:31Because you asked, what is the plan for Congress with Vijay.
06:35But this is a strategy plan.
06:38We are not going to treat Pramod as the Congress spokesperson here to defend and justify.
06:42We have been only speaking of...
06:44No, no, no.
06:44I have understood that I have offended Telangana.
06:46We have not offended Telangana.
06:47We are not offended Telangana.
06:48We have not offended Telangana.
06:49We have not offended Telangana.
06:50We are nowhere in the picture.
06:51But that is a strategy.
06:52Okay, so Pramod is not Congress spokesperson.
06:54We are not going to ask him to justify it or make us understand it.
06:58This is apparently the strategy.
06:59But yeah.
07:00No, but we have been talking about the alliance in the government.
07:03But we also have to look at how the alliance is forming in opposition.
07:06If TVK doesn't have any more parties, can he be a pan Tamil Nadu party?
07:11Can he have 120 odd seats that he needs to come back to form a majority government?
07:16Does he have enough?
07:17Or will the AIDMT tomorrow break away from BJP maybe in Feb?
07:21And like EPS can be like the martyr that stood up to Delhi and say I will go with Vijay.
07:26But that's the big...
07:27We also have to look at the opposition alliance party.
07:29Do they have the chemistry to get 35 odd persons?
07:31See here's what I am hearing.
07:33Sitting in Delhi, I know it's very far, but you have a lot of the politics playing out here
07:38in the sense especially with the BJP, AIDMT, Kamba and all the meetings that are happening here.
07:42When I ask them about Vijay, they say he'll be a factor.
07:45They say he will be a deciding factor in this election.
07:48Now if I were to give a number and this is me sticking my neck out,
07:52but I'm going to go ahead and say what I'm hearing.
07:54You're going to end up in trouble.
07:56So be it.
07:57But I'm going to say what I'm hearing.
07:58Everyone's telling me his vote share as it stands now.
08:02It could go up.
08:03It could go down.
08:04You know, nobody knows what's going to happen in the next few months.
08:06Fifteen to twenty percent.
08:07Plus.
08:08I'll add something.
08:09Depending on that.
08:10The mercy you're saying.
08:11I'll not name a person on the party.
08:13A senior member from a big party told me in their survey.
08:16At least which party you tell me?
08:17No, no, I can't.
08:18I'll be in trouble again.
08:19I'll tell you.
08:20This is very boring.
08:21That person told.
08:22X told Y about Z.
08:23What am I supposed to do in this?
08:24You are being annoyed.
08:25We have to go back and meet these people.
08:26You are sitting in Karnataka.
08:27It's okay.
08:28No, no, no.
08:29But they said in their survey, Vijay is somewhere around 22 to 23 percent as of today.
08:32See, I didn't want to say 20 percent.
08:35Some people have told me that.
08:37But 20 to, 15 to 20 percent is a rough estimate, I think.
08:4020 percent is big vote share.
08:41But will the seat conversion happen?
08:42Because he has fans.
08:43Scattered.
08:44Yeah, it's scattered.
08:45Like JDS in Karnataka is 20 percent vote share.
08:46But their conversion rate is 26.
08:47So the challenge I think for Vijay will be yes.
08:48So first on the vote share.
08:4915 to 20 percent or 15 to 25 percent.
08:50Does everyone agree with that?
08:51Does everyone agree with that?
08:52What do you guys think?
08:53Yeah.
08:54Or do you think lesser than that?
08:55No, I think it will be lesser.
08:56Because like in Andhra, if you see Pawan Kalyan has had a lot of trials and errors before
09:06actually getting into, you know, having the seat sharing talks to even take place between
09:11Naidu, Pawan Kalyan and BJP to happen.
09:13No sir, I think he.
09:15But Pawan Kalyan being a fan is different.
09:16Pawan Kalyan.
09:17See, yeah.
09:18Like he said.
09:19But also in Tamil Nadu, there's a space for an opposition.
09:22A strong opposition.
09:23Yeah.
09:24There's that alternative, you know.
09:25But that's going to be a decided factor for Vijay.
09:27But actually in Tamil Nadu, what do you think?
09:2860 to 25 percent.
09:29I am the one from Tamil Nadu.
09:31But I am the one who's talking.
09:33Like you all believe there's anti-incumbency.
09:35There are so many things that happened over there.
09:37But do you see an outrage?
09:38Do you see an outrage over Karur Institute?
09:40Do you see an outrage over Anmai University Institute?
09:41Of course.
09:42No, Karur of course.
09:43No, they can also be silent probably.
09:45It can be a waveless election.
09:46No, so tell me something.
09:47In Tamil Nadu, haven't we always seen a great deal of anti-establishment?
09:52Anti-incumbency?
09:53Always.
09:54That's something that's part and intrinsic to Tamil Nadu politics.
09:56That was actually broken by AIDMK.
09:58Yeah.
09:59But that was then, no?
10:00You have to wait.
10:01Because what I'm trying to say here is that,
10:03you all say he's going to have 15 to 20 percent.
10:06Congress Neta might have told you something.
10:07I am quoting you.
10:08Congress.
10:09Okay, I got it.
10:10I'm not agreeing with that.
10:12I got it.
10:13Congress told Naga 22 to 23 percent.
10:17No, no.
10:18Your same Neta spoke to me as well.
10:20But the second thing is, I will quote a DNK Neta.
10:23Alright?
10:24And that particular person says that we agree that he has 10 to 12 percent.
10:2810 to 12.
10:29But converting it to vote is a big deal.
10:31Yeah.
10:32And second thing is that, he has a major minor following.
10:37What do you mean?
10:38No, what is the minority you're referring to?
10:41From 10 to 80 years old.
10:42Underage.
10:43Underage.
10:44Underage people.
10:45My question is, how about the voters of Vijay Kanth?
10:48How are the voters of PMK?
10:50So it is a divided house in PMK between Ramdas and Islam.
10:53And how about Vijay Kanth voters?
10:55Will they vote for Vijay or it will be for DNK?
10:57It's a very sad thing.
10:58Because like Vijay Kanth's DMDK has almost dissimited.
11:01Yeah.
11:02Okay.
11:03That that party is like, you know, I don't know what strategy they're going to bring back
11:06to gain force.
11:07Because Premrata is the one who's leading the party.
11:10And when it comes to Patali Makrutalchi, they have kind of like infighting and such.
11:14And Anumani Ramdas is trying to manage it.
11:16But the bigger factor is that their votes are caste centric.
11:21And be it DNK, be it AIDMK or be it PMK, that vote will go for that particular
11:26caste leader.
11:27So that's the difference I see between Vijay and the other parties.
11:30Vijay doesn't have a caste bloke.
11:31Exactly.
11:32He has a youth following.
11:33And women and mass following women.
11:35Yesterday, DNK conducted this, you know, normally youth program where they brought in almost
11:381.39.
11:39But to counter Vijay.
11:40But tell me, you spoke about anti-incumbency, it's not seen on ground as of now.
11:45But what do you think are the factors for incumbency, pro-incumbency?
11:47How do you think that, what narrative will the DNK and Stalin government take saying that
11:51we will come back to power?
11:52The one thing that even yesterday's, the Chief Minister's speech, if I want to quote,
11:56it's about development.
11:57The Chief Minister talks about development.
11:58He says he has brought in more investment, more jobs, women-centric, you know, be it like
12:031,000 rupees or be it like free buses or everything.
12:06He says that let's concentrate on that particular thing.
12:09And they're very clearly mentioning that we, you know, they're called, I mean, should I
12:12use the word slaves here?
12:13Of course.
12:14Because BJP, he says that BJP is bringing old slaves and new slaves to counter them.
12:20All right.
12:21And when it comes to kind of silent anti-incumbency, there would have been at least some kind of,
12:27you know, ripples on the ground.
12:29On the ground, I'm not seeing it yet.
12:31We still have almost three months.
12:33What will happen?
12:34We don't know.
12:35And one important aspect is that like AADMK wanted to raise this issue as a campaign,
12:39anti-drugs and women's safety.
12:41Yeah.
12:42I don't see that reflecting on that.
12:43And there are two big questions.
12:44So they've not exploited the anti-cumbency?
12:45Not just that.
12:46Even the Governor has spoken on it multiple times.
12:47But even after that, we don't see it reflecting.
12:49Actually, there are two big factors also.
12:51Will the opposition party raise the issue that maybe one year post the election that Uday Nidhi
12:55will become the CM's father, will make way for the son to become…
12:58You know, you are actually giving them idea because they didn't raise it until now.
13:00No, that's a good point.
13:02See, when you speak about development…
13:03When you speak about development…
13:04No, no.
13:05I want to tell him that Nagarjana is a very good point.
13:09The opposition should have thought about it.
13:11Maybe they are taking notes now.
13:13See, when you say it is about development, okay, every Chief Minister during his tenure will
13:18talk about it.
13:19Even KCR did.
13:20But what happened in the elections?
13:21People voted the other way around.
13:23They have experienced the welfare schemes, everything.
13:26But he was moved out of the chain.
13:28Yeah, but in fact, Abdul, if you see…
13:30If you see KCR's what happened in Telangana elections, it was because, yes, anti-income
13:36HC was one part of it.
13:38But they also had an alternate face.
13:40Ravens and Congress, they did have an alternate face.
13:42But EPS is…
13:43No, but EPS, is he strong enough to take on a Stalinist?
13:45No.
13:46He is not that strong.
13:47Even without the alliance, Stalin's vote share is around 23%.
13:49That's all.
13:50Not a majority vote share.
13:51No, I agree.
13:52You're looking at a vote share.
13:53Yeah.
13:54The same with EPS.
13:55So, the thing is that, is EPS popular enough?
13:56Is he popular enough?
13:57See, there is an image.
13:58Stalin is popular.
13:59There's no doubt about it.
14:00He's hugely popular.
14:01He is a leader that people recognize very, very clearly.
14:05EPA has yet to establish himself as a clear leader, especially with all of these rumblings.
14:09It doesn't look good.
14:10If I have to speak from the ground again, the twin leaf symbol is much more popular than
14:15EPS.
14:16Even now?
14:17Even now.
14:18Does it hold the same power it did, maybe let's say, 10 years ago?
14:202016 versus 2026.
14:21How about minorities, Pramod?
14:23Because they've made alliance with BJP.
14:25I heard that most of the minorities who were associated with AIDNK have moved out.
14:29It's not like most of the minorities, it depends on the ground once again.
14:32If you go to Madurai, like Kalangana Lur or something, the famous Jalli Kattista,
14:35you can still see twin leaf symbols everywhere.
14:38They don't care about the leader because for them MGR is God.
14:41And that is their party.
14:43Their alliance is always with them.
14:45But like you mentioned, the alliance has broken up.
14:48Even though OPS or TTV, they want to move out or something, their allegiance is still
14:53towards twin leaves.
14:54They either want to win it back, they want to cause some ripples, but they will always
14:58stay with AIDNK.
15:00But you will ask me about Sengotea.
15:02That's a difference to me.
15:03I want to throw this thing.
15:05All of us can discuss.
15:06What are your predictions that the alliance will be in March?
15:10What would it look like?
15:11What would it look like?
15:12Shibi, you want to go?
15:14It's too early to say it, to be honest.
15:16Give your prediction.
15:17Of course, it's too early.
15:21Would the India alliance be there or not be there?
15:23How do you think?
15:24I think Congress and the DMK, the India alliance will be there.
15:26I don't think Congress can survive in Tamil Nadu without DMK support.
15:30Whether it's Slok Sabha also, they want just because DMK is Ocha or not.
15:34Because they have a good CADA system or something on ground.
15:37So, I think that alliance will stay.
15:40And I think Congress doesn't have another option also.
15:42They will have to stay.
15:43I don't think they are going to take a other chance also leaving DMK in that alliance.
15:47Leaving DMK and leaving that alliance.
15:49Because they will have to perform well in Tamil Nadu and Kerala if they have to survive
15:53and show that they are still existing at least in southern India.
15:56Apoorba, what do you think?
15:58I think, like she rightly mentioned,
16:01yes, there is going to be a continuous alliance between the Congress and DMK
16:05because technically Rahul and Stalin are brothers.
16:10Anand Thambi.
16:11So, that is there.
16:13But I don't think there's going to be an alliance with Vijay
16:17and any of the other parties majorly
16:20because he has always maintained that he is going to be contesting
16:24and if there's going to be a same candidate phase then it's going to be Vijay
16:27who is going to be there.
16:28No, he said he is open to alliance but is Vijay a lone wolf right now?
16:32See.
16:33Right now, yes.
16:34But is it going to change?
16:35Vijay is not even a wolf.
16:36Vijay wants to be a lion not a wolf.
16:37He wants, he's a lion.
16:38Full stop.
16:39This is a viral movement Ramul.
16:40You're doomed.
16:41He wants to be, but you said he's not one.
16:44That's what I said.
16:46Vijay is not a wolf.
16:48Wants to be a lion, not a wolf.
16:50Full stop.
16:52This is a viral movement from wolves.
16:54You're doomed.
16:56Vijay fans are coming after you now.
16:58You called him a wolf, I'm calling him a lion.
16:59The thing is that he wants to bring in a pride together.
17:02But what I see down there, it's sad.
17:04First of all, they need both committee members.
17:06They need proper things on the ground.
17:08They don't have that.
17:09It's difficult also, I think.
17:11Most importantly, even though Vijay is not openly saying that,
17:16he's being reflected as MGR.
17:18So the damage he's causing is more to AI, DMK than DMK.
17:20He's saying it openly only.
17:22He will openly say it.
17:23He's keeping on saying it.
17:24He has not said that openly.
17:25People have done it.
17:25But hasn't he referred to MGR again and again in his speech?
17:28He refers, but he never says I am MGR.
17:29If he says that, that'll actually become a serious issue.
17:32Like victory, he suggests.
17:34Same thing like we will have the same kind of repetition,
17:3667, 77, 79 and such.
17:39Because nobody can dare say that they will be the next MGR.
17:41Unlike junior NTR or something, it will not happen here.
17:44Trust me.
17:45People are especially...
17:46It's very emotional.
17:47Very, very emotional.
17:48Strong emotion.
17:49It's a strong connect they have.
17:50But what Vijay is...
17:51I don't know, like maybe it looks like Vijay wants to create a kind of ripple or something.
17:55But he wants to project himself as a chief minister.
17:57But is he that serious?
17:59Because he's got single TN.
18:01Okay.
18:01But what happened to OPS?
18:03You were there.
18:04You were a risk caller.
18:05Remember?
18:06Yeah.
18:06Campaign.
18:07And you were at the top of that band.
18:09You did campaign.
18:10Okay.
18:10No, I didn't.
18:11Jackford was a symbol.
18:12Yeah, Jackford.
18:13That's what I'm trying to say.
18:14How many OPS contested with OPS at that time?
18:1825.
18:19But you need to tell me your prediction.
18:22Akshita.
18:22What?
18:23Your prediction for the alliance.
18:24Let's move on to the next step of the process.
18:26No, but I'm going to stick my neck out and say that I will not rule out the Congress and
18:29TVK alliance.
18:31Maybe in Feb they might even do it, take a step.
18:33Because anyways, the India alliance is half broken.
18:36No, but it's suicide for the Congress.
18:38It is.
18:39Right?
18:39Like it's political suicide for the Congress.
18:40Like they're taking a chance if they go into a form and alliance with TVK.
18:44You have very few states.
18:45Simple.
18:45No, I'll tell you.
18:45I'll tell you what they have to do.
18:47You're not coming back to me.
18:47You have very few states.
18:48They can't afford to be like, oh my God.
18:49Let me be devil's advocate that if I'm going with DMK, I'm completely
18:53coming back to power, but I'm not in the ministry.
18:54But here, if I come back to power with TVK, I will have ministry also.
18:58But I mean, that's a-
18:59There's nothing to lose.
19:00There's nothing to lose enough.
19:01But the chances are very less, no?
19:02So why would they take that risk?
19:04What is the factor that TVK-
19:06How many people are going to contest from Congress?
19:06How many people are going to win?
19:07That you tell me.
19:08That's the worst.
19:09No, it's not like they're going to become the chief minister.
19:10Even with Vijay, it's very clear Vijay will be in the worst.
19:13You're still going to be secondary.
19:14You're going to play second fiddle.
19:15But you're going to play second fiddle to a newcomer.
19:17But also you'll be in the cabinet, right?
19:19See, if Vijay-
19:20You don't know that.
19:20I'll tell you-
19:20I mean, first, for starters, you have to ensure a win.
19:22Yeah.
19:23And so for that, you have to be really strong to be helping Vijay with boot level work, etc.
19:27So you need to have that kind of backing.
19:28But-
19:29And then on top of that, not just to ensure a victory, then you have to say that, okay,
19:33you're chief minister, but let us have a say on it.
19:34Tell me this, Pramut.
19:35Now, we are talking so much about Vijay.
19:36As Vijay considered a mainstream politician or still an half actor, half politician, because recently
19:41on Twitter, I saw, I don't know how far it's true.
19:42People mocked him for an AI photo of Ambedkar.
19:46I don't know if you saw it.
19:47So is he completely a politician or still a half actor, half Nita?
19:51He's acting in his movie, Jarena Agar, right now.
19:53Last one.
19:53Yeah.
19:54It's supposed to be last one, but to some Kerala actor, she said-
19:58Yeah, Mamita.
19:58Mamita.
19:59Mamita actually openly said.
20:00He apparently, when they were shooting together, she asked him, are you quitting cinema?
20:04And he said, let me see how it goes in politics.
20:07If it doesn't work, I'll come back.
20:08It doesn't work.
20:09It's again Rajnikanth's factor, right?
20:11It will not work like that.
20:12But I think that's also because for these actors, it's a struggle to have funds, no?
20:15I can simply say-
20:17To keep their values alive.
20:18Do you think Vijay will be another Kamal Haasthan?
20:20No, I will simply say-
20:21No, but you see Pawan Kalyan, he's balancing the two.
20:23He has done a lot of falling down.
20:26Pawan Kalyan has taken the beating for so long.
20:29See, the same-
20:29Right, sir.
20:30Well, yes, but I'm saying that he's acting and doing politics.
20:33Why?
20:33Because you need those funds.
20:35Speak to any of these actors who are politicians.
20:37They'll tell you one thing.
20:38They'll say, I'm doing this because I need to fund it right now.
20:41Yeah, Suresh Govya has been saying he wants to quit from the ministers.
20:43Because he says that I don't have no money.
20:45I didn't realize that it'll be, you know, with so less income.
20:47It's not easy.
20:48Politics is not an easy job.
20:49I think we need to appreciate the fact that Vijay hasn't just, you know, spoken about it.
20:53He's walked the talk.
20:54He's entered politics.
20:55He's saying it's his last film.
20:57He's putting his focus on politics fully, 100%, which others have failed to do.
21:01So I think that, yes, we have to appreciate him.
21:03I don't think we should be judging that, you know, is he going to continue films because
21:06I think they need a source of income, right?
21:08If he's in this for the long run, he needs it.
21:10We are not judging, but the thing he said that is that he didn't, he said, he said, use
21:13the word Tirla, which means I don't know.
21:15I know.
21:15But I'm saying, why has he said that?
21:17That means that his seriousness is being questioned there.
21:21But it's not seriousness.
21:22It's not serious.
21:23It's not serious.
21:24But it's not seriousness.
21:25No, the thing is, let's say, okay, next election, he doesn't do well.
21:28So he has to stick to it.
21:29No, he has to stick to it.
21:30You need to focus for 2031.
21:31But to stick to it, where is the money going to come from?
21:33If you need to work for the people.
21:34You are up against a machine like the DLK, which has also got huge money bags, right?
21:38To take them on, you have to have the money.
21:40But Achitoy, the reality is, if you don't tell the people that I'm going to leave you with
21:43you with your fall or lie.
21:44You remember Vijay Kahn, Takshita?
21:46You remember Vijay Kahn?
21:47Yeah, yeah.
21:48He was opposition party leader.
21:49And he performed well.
21:50No, sure he did.
21:51He would have cut to it.
21:52He would have cut to it.
21:53Yeah, that's what I'm telling you.
21:54You have to give time.
21:55You have to give time.
21:56Yeah, yeah.
21:57So you think of it in the long run.
21:58He can't be broke and doing politics.
22:00No one is saying Vijay can't act in movies after this election.
22:05I think it's unfair to judge him for it.
22:07He can't leave politics.
22:08Nobody is judging.
22:09He can't leave politics.
22:10Vijay Kahn took eight years.
22:11Avan Kalyan took eight years.
22:12So Vijay is saying terrible.
22:14He's saying basically that after this election, if I need to continue, I need to sustain myself.
22:18So the diplomatic answer would be, I would be in both.
22:20Not Tarela.
22:21He could have simply said, no, I will do this.
22:23Exactly.
22:24He said like, I don't know.
22:25Let me see the election results and then I'll decide.
22:27That's what he said.
22:28See Vijay will not be a major factor.
22:29But that again is a wrong message when you're saying that it depends on election results.
22:31See Vijay will not be a major factor.
22:33Because even Pawan Kalyan, he has gained victory with the alliance that he has had.
22:43No, I agree.
22:44He's done the right thing with that.
22:45So Vijay going with this move, I don't think he's going to have much of an impact.
22:48See, Tamil Nadu is very different.
22:49But see, Pawan Kalyan doing it, he wasn't the one who was calling the shots ideally.
22:54But Vijay is someone who wants to call the shots.
22:57No, but maybe Pawan Kalyan started that.
22:59You understand the stature of the leaders.
23:01No, no, I would tell you something.
23:03Unlike you say, instead of Congress, if Vijay goes with AIDMK.
23:06Yeah, but that cannot happen.
23:07Serious, serious damages can occur.
23:09Yeah, but BJP and AIDMK.
23:11No, but that's consolidation.
23:12I'll tell you that.
23:13AIDMK has a ground force.
23:14Absolutely.
23:15Equal to DMK when it comes to both committees.
23:17Of course.
23:18Which Congress does not.
23:19Yes.
23:20Point number one.
23:21Point number two, they can project him.
23:23Like what AIDMK has done earlier.
23:25I'm not taking MJ's name or something like that.
23:28Or Jailada's name.
23:29But the party has won with that formula.
23:32But will EPS agree to make it?
23:34He won't agree.
23:35Both of them want to become CM.
23:36You don't know.
23:37Please promote them.
23:38No, aliens can't come together.
23:39Vijay also wants to be CM.
23:40You don't know.
23:41EPS also wants to be CM.
23:42In your state also two people want to be CM.
23:44But one of the same party.
23:45From the same party.
23:46That's worse.
23:48I'll tell you the number one question I'm asked in the industry.
23:51What's the question?
23:53My sambar looks better.
23:54What's the question?
23:55The question I've always asked in the newsroom after the Bihar election results.
23:58Is Vijay going to be like PK?
24:00Answer no.
24:01Terriela.
24:02Terriela.
24:03Terriela.
24:04Terriela.
24:05Terriela.
24:06Terriela.
24:07Exactly.
24:08Terriela.
24:09I don't know.
24:10For now, for now he seems very serious.
24:12For now he has-
24:13No, Roshan Kishu is serious.
24:14I'm saying performance-wise.
24:15Performance-wise.
24:16Performance-wise it's a big question because the only strength right now what he has got
24:21is Sengotian.
24:22But Sengotian also has brought in trouble along with him.
24:24Yeah.
24:25Because now it's an ego issue for AIDMK.
24:27Yeah.
24:28Remember that's what I brought in OPS.
24:29Twenty people contested against him.
24:31OPS with the same name.
24:32Yeah.
24:33And having O Pani Silvam as a name in Tamil Nadu is not a common one.
24:36Yeah.
24:37Imagine where they brought those people from.
24:38Yeah.
24:39Yeah.
24:40This is a common trick in Tamil Nadu.
24:41Like speaking of-
24:42They keep doing this.
24:43Performance.
24:44Not to this level.
24:45We are talking of performance.
24:46How much of OPS Vijay will divide?
24:49Who will-
24:50Who will Vijay hurt?
24:51That's true.
24:52That is where I want to say.
24:53PMK they will have trouble.
24:55NTK they will have trouble.
24:56AIDMK.
24:57AIDMK.
24:58I'm coming to that.
24:59Why?
25:00Because the young people-
25:02Youth.
25:03That seems to be the target.
25:04And every other program I've been called Vijay, it's only youth.
25:08Uncontrollable youth.
25:09Alright.
25:10And AIDMK.
25:11Definitely AIDMK because-
25:12Not DMK?
25:13I don't think so.
25:14Because MGR is not from-
25:15I want to add in here.
25:17Talking about performance.
25:18Are we overestimating or exaggerating Vijay's presence politically?
25:21No, I don't think so.
25:22No, let me tell you.
25:23I don't think so.
25:24Because in Tamil Nadu, the symbols matter a lot.
25:26Rising sun and two leaf are-
25:28Like people know them back of my mind.
25:30It's etched in the brain.
25:31AIDMK.
25:32Also the core ideology.
25:33One second.
25:34One second.
25:35Ideology matters.
25:36Ideology matters.
25:37I think-
25:38For an example in the-
25:39Let's say Arvakuruchian remotest constituency.
25:42If Vijay's symbol for example is a cup, will people recognize the cup in last two months?
25:47They only know the-
25:48They know the face.
25:49Yeah, they know the face.
25:50The candidate is not Vijay.
25:51Exactly.
25:52It might be person A, B.
25:53So that also matters.
25:54In 90s, in 90s, in 90s, people contested in two leaves in Bangalore and won the compression election.
26:00Yeah, yeah.
26:01That's how symbol matters.
26:02So what I'm saying-
26:03No, no.
26:04Let me finish.
26:05Let me finish.
26:06What I'm saying is, are we overestimating Vijay because it's only him.
26:09He can't contest 234 seats.
26:11Okay, I have answers to this also.
26:12While talking in Madurai in his conference, he said, Madurai South Vijay.
26:16Madurai South Vijay.
26:17And we all got a shock.
26:18So is he going to contest from there?
26:19Yeah, yeah.
26:20Then he says Madurai Central Vijay.
26:21Madurai North Vijay.
26:22Madurai East Vijay.
26:23Yeah, everywhere Vijay is caught.
26:24That's okay for our speech when I'm pressing the button.
26:25I need to recognize that.
26:26I'm coming to that.
26:27And also will this crowd convert?
26:28We saw big rallies in Bihar.
26:30I'm coming to that.
26:31Senghor Tayyan, two days back, we have that bite also.
26:33He said that we are going to get a symbol that is going to shock entire thumb title.
26:38Correct.
26:39Is it exaggerating?
26:40I don't know.
26:41I think they'll need to get a symbol that somehow people recognize with Vijay.
26:44Should be approved by election commission.
26:46What would it be?
26:47Should be approved by election commission.
26:49I don't know.
26:50I'm just speculating here on what the symbol can be.
26:52This is where his social media team comes in.
26:55Vijay has a very strong social media team.
26:57Yeah, I agree.
26:58Very good at it.
26:59And they're very good at it.
27:00Even as good as DMK?
27:01I don't think DMK has or any other party has that much strong social media team.
27:04That's strong.
27:05I doubt that DMK does.
27:07I've been at the first experience.
27:09Akshita is famous for being trolled on social media.
27:12DMK, I think so.
27:13The names I've received, but anyway.
27:16But when it comes to Vijay, popularizing something is entirely, it's not a problem for them.
27:20Converting them into vote, just like you mentioned, that's a very big challenge for them.
27:24They think they can bring Senghor Tayyan.
27:26But the problem is that he is going to contest against the entire Mahabharat team.
27:31Yeah.
27:32Okay, Bhishma was with Mahabharat.
27:34But now he's going to contest in a different manner.
27:36And here DMK, you know, we are talking Vijay is going to be an influence.
27:40DMK is a major influence which is already there.
27:42Yeah.
27:43I don't see anti-includency so far.
27:45Okay, interestingly.
27:46Am I pushing my neck out?
27:47I don't know.
27:48But on the ground, it's entirely different.
27:49Because whenever there's an issue.
27:50But is it silent?
27:51Which is what we mentioned, no?
27:52That silently maybe.
27:53Because like I said, you've seen it in Tamil Nadu before.
27:56No, but can I bring a question in?
27:58Because he started on the Mahabharat and Bhishma reference.
28:00Should I take that back?
28:02No.
28:03Wait.
28:04Do you think in a way Vijay will end up being Karna?
28:06Ooh.
28:07No, no.
28:08I love Karna.
28:09I don't know what to say.
28:10So you don't like Vijay?
28:12I love Karna.
28:13Vijay is not a low.
28:14I admire Karna more than Vijay.
28:17I will have to agree that.
28:18Okay, for his values.
28:19Okay.
28:20But the thing is, why can't you say Arjuna?
28:21Why do you have to go to Karna?
28:22No, that's exactly why.
28:23It stands the question.
28:24Kerala.
28:25No, just before that, one update which is that in BJP we have seen the election in charge change
28:30for Tamil Nadu.
28:31From Bajayan Pander, it's now become Piyush Kool.
28:33Yeah.
28:34What is BJP's chances in Tamil Nadu?
28:35You think their voucher will grow?
28:37For, no.
28:38I will also give you the answer from the present moment.
28:40Because they changed their strategy also.
28:41Let me tell you something.
28:42Even like before Piyush Kool, there was Annam Ali there.
28:44Annam Ali was doing very well.
28:46He was actually segregating the, you know, completely bringing the voucher.
28:48But his game was long run, no.
28:50He wasn't looking at 2036.
28:51He said, I look at it long game, which is why I don't want an alliance.
28:54BJP's changed track on that.
28:55They've said that we will do it.
28:56He wants to be here for 20 years and then come back alone to power.
28:59Yeah.
29:00Instead they changed it.
29:01They changed the track, which is why Naina Nagendran has come alliance.
29:03What he did was strengthening the party on the ground.
29:05Yeah.
29:06So it's worked.
29:07It worked.
29:08But can Nainar take it forward?
29:09Nainar is only secondary.
29:10Nainar does not want to become the chief minister.
29:11Okay.
29:12It is EPS.
29:13Nainar has agreed to it.
29:14So the party literally has been handed over to EPS.
29:15Yes.
29:16Fine.
29:17But I'm asking BJP alone.
29:18I'm not talking about the alliance.
29:19I'm talking about BJP alone, vote share wise.
29:21You're saying Annam Ali has grown the party.
29:22So vote share wise, will they grow now?
29:24That depends on Annam Ali because if Annam Ali says-
29:26Again Annam Ali.
29:27Annam Ali is now just a BJP leader.
29:28See, you're talking about that silent, what do you call that?
29:31Anti-intimacy.
29:32That is also playing over there.
29:33Annam Ali supporters are not silent.
29:35They are.
29:36For now.
29:37Remember how it was when Annam Ali was active and now?
29:39What is happening to Nainar Nagendran?
29:40So what's the question that constantly comes up with Annam Ali?
29:42If he's so popular, why hasn't he won an election?
29:44That depends.
29:45I mean, good question.
29:46I can put the same question for Vijay also now.
29:48Vijay hasn't contested.
29:49No, Annam Ali is contested.
29:50I'm saying he's contested twice.
29:51I will ask the same question after the election's end.
29:53No, no.
29:54He's saying Vijay not win.
29:55He's saying Vijay not win.
29:56I didn't say that.
29:57I didn't say that.
29:58I didn't say that.
29:59I didn't say that.
30:00I didn't say that.
30:01I'm singing a Vijay song now.
30:06But anyway, so what do you think of BJP?
30:09If Annam Ali is such a big factor, can he actually swing it for them?
30:12And why hasn't he ever won an election then?
30:14Well, like the moment when Annam Ali came over, that was very early.
30:17We were on the ground at that point.
30:19So like there was not much of popularity.
30:20He built the ground.
30:21But then he was moved from state politics to central politics.
30:24Yeah.
30:25Not that easy.
30:26He was in charge.
30:27The voters actually change completely.
30:29Their mindset change when it comes to MP election.
30:31But we have to give it to him.
30:32Dilli.
30:33MPs.
30:34You know this.
30:35Sir, tell me something.
30:36Do you think it was a bad move for the BJP to remove Annam Ali as the Tamil Nadu BJP chief?
30:39If he was so popular, if he was helping the party grow,
30:41was it a mistake to bring in Nainar Nagendra and go with an alliance?
30:44Should they have stuck to the long run, stuck to Annam Ali?
30:46Was that the right formula?
30:47I would simply say BJP wants MLAs from Tamil Nadu.
30:50And it will only happen if they have ADNK support.
30:52That's what I said.
30:53So you believe that what they have done now is the right thing?
30:55I'll tell you.
30:56It's for BJP to decide on that.
30:58But I'll tell you that I told you earlier,
31:00if Vijay had gone ahead with ADNK, there would have been some certain damages.
31:03This is what BJP is depending on right now.
31:05Because last time they got four MLEs.
31:07Pramad, I have a question.
31:08What will be the role of these guys?
31:10I know that they will not make a huge factor.
31:12Tirumavadavan and Seeman.
31:14See, before Vijay.
31:16Seeman I'm very interested in.
31:17Before Vijay, Seeman had a good chance.
31:19Around 8% he had.
31:20Everyone was talking about him being the IT thing.
31:22No, he was growing also.
31:24Because that actual people who want to listen to political ideology.
31:28He actually brought in Tamil sentiment.
31:30Not Dravidian sentiment.
31:31He wanted to counter that.
31:33All right.
31:34But what happened is that like most of the people.
31:36I mean I won't say most of the people.
31:37A good section which was influenced by Seeman.
31:41The moment Vijay started the party completely transformed.
31:44So even Seeman voters have moved to TBK.
31:47So he's no longer a big factor.
31:49I wouldn't say so.
31:50That's the problem.
31:51If you're going to have PMK.
31:53You're going to have NTK.
31:54NTK so far wants to only contest alone.
31:56And you're going to have Vijay and everything.
31:58Imagine one alliance is having the votes in intact.
32:01And the other alliances are separated.
32:03Got it.
32:04Who's going to win?
32:05No but at the end of the day do we really think that.
32:08What is adoration for say a movie actor for Talapati.
32:12Is it going to go into votes?
32:15Because like you said most of them are young crowds that come there.
32:18Most of them who come there.
32:19I'll answer for Pramod.
32:20From what he said no.
32:21They're left.
32:22Coming back to the last final point.
32:24We are missing that.
32:26BJP till now had a 9% vote share.
32:29Recently they looked.
32:30So when they contested alone.
32:31On a 4 party fight.
32:34Now without Annamalai I think they will go back to 2.5 or 3%.
32:37Is my presumption.
32:39Because he had a big factor to play.
32:42He was like a cult within the BJP.
32:43But you know I felt there was a very extreme view.
32:46Either people loved him or hated him.
32:47So you divided people like that.
32:49He became popular.
32:50He became popular.
32:51Right.
32:52He became very popular.
32:53He still is very popular.
32:54So you also have to realize that the moment he's left the part.
32:57I mean left the role of being the president.
32:59The party of course will receive some damage.
33:01Of like 4% vote share definitely would go up.
33:03I think they're willing to take that in.
33:04Hoping that AIA, DMK will be able to help.
33:06But that won't count.
33:07Like you said that's for the BJP to decide what strategy they want to take.
33:10Before we move to Kerala.
33:11I'm just going to quickly.
33:12Because Pramod's not going to do it.
33:13I'm going to sum up his three key takeaways.
33:15Because he won't say it.
33:16From what he said so far.
33:17Edge to DMK.
33:18He won't say it.
33:19But that's what I'm sensing.
33:20No anti incumbency.
33:21Vijay not much of a factor.
33:23Because his votes are going to be scattered.
33:25These are the takeaways I'm getting from what Pramod has said.
33:27Conditions apply.
33:28He won't say it.
33:29So I'm saying it for him.
33:30Let's move now.
33:31To Kerala.
33:32The other state where there is a lot that happened over the weekend.
33:34Yes.
33:35Shibhi.
33:36Local polls.
33:37There was a huge focus on it.
33:38Because obviously it's a pre-mandate to the mega-mandate.
33:40And also we take elections very seriously.
33:42Even a by-election also we go all out.
33:44Which is great.
33:45It's good actually.
33:46So tell me.
33:47Was this a result you expected?
33:49Honestly not.
33:50Really?
33:51Yes.
33:52Because even if there's anti-incumbency.
33:53Even if the left is in power or in the opposition.
33:56Local body polls always gave an edge to the left.
33:59Because their cadder strength is very strong.
34:01They go down on ground.
34:02That's how they function.
34:03It's a cadder party.
34:04So in that way.
34:06Okay.
34:07There could be some setbacks.
34:08Corporations yes.
34:09Looked a bit.
34:10You know.
34:11Swinging here and there.
34:12But I didn't expect this big of a setback for the left.
34:14For the local body polls.
34:15And the Congress making such progress.
34:18It's happened like once or twice.
34:19If you look in Kerala's history.
34:21When Congress have had an edge for the local body polls.
34:23So this is huge for the Congress.
34:26It happened in 2015.
34:27Sorry.
34:282010.
34:29When the Congress got an edge.
34:31And 2011 they came back to power.
34:33But it was very tight.
34:3468 for the left and 72 for the Congress.
34:38That was just like one seat extra than the majority.
34:40And that was left in power.
34:42So even when they were in opposition they had 68 seats.
34:44So it was very tight.
34:45So I don't know if this is going to.
34:48If this is a decision.
34:49If this is exactly what it will happen.
34:51Yes.
34:52Because now initially when I saw the results as a whole.
34:54I felt like okay the Congress have a massive edge.
34:56But when you look at the seats now.
34:58This vote share divides the assembly seats into.
35:0080 for the Congress.
35:0258 for the left.
35:03And 2 for the NDA.
35:04Like when you look.
35:05She will tell me this.
35:06Left also has a rule that post two elections.
35:08The third elections ticket will not be given.
35:10Yes.
35:11But that will be.
35:12The chief minister has already fought two elections.
35:13Yeah.
35:14That will be waived.
35:15This time is what we run.
35:16Because they want to go all out.
35:17If they lose power in Kerala.
35:18Left becomes invisible in the country.
35:20So they are going to go with Pitarai's face.
35:22Pitarai is still a doubt.
35:24Because if at all.
35:25Again.
35:26If he loses election with his face.
35:27Then that's going to affect him also personally.
35:29So.
35:30That way.
35:31Even long ago.
35:32He was saying that he is still deciding.
35:33That party will take a call.
35:34Yes.
35:35But I heard that two seats will be.
35:37You know abolished this time.
35:38Some of them.
35:39Which are these two seats?
35:40Like a people.
35:41Somebody like a KK Shailaja.
35:42Okay.
35:43Might be given one more term.
35:44And Pinarai.
35:45No.
35:46There are many more people.
35:47Like people are like very popular in their constituencies.
35:48And one more thing with the left is that.
35:50Their MLAs are very popular in their constituencies.
35:52Okay.
35:53So you never know.
35:54I feel.
35:55I still give an edge to the Congress.
35:56Because ten years is too much of a time in Kerala.
35:58Because that's what I've been hearing.
35:59That there is a whole deal of anti-incumbency in Kerala.
36:01Yeah.
36:02Very much.
36:03Very much anti-incumbency.
36:04And the last time was a very pro-incumbency that you never see in Kerala.
36:07Because it was Covid.
36:08They had multiple disasters like Nepal.
36:10Floods.
36:11The management was really good.
36:12Yeah.
36:13Like they managed.
36:14The landslide.
36:15So why is it anti-incumbency now?
36:16Is it just ten years or are there some issues that people like Shabriman and everyone keeps
36:20talking.
36:21One more question to that.
36:22One of the leaders was telling us that after delimitation.
36:24Yes.
36:25The oat division.
36:26The oat division has helped LDF.
36:27Yes.
36:28Exactly.
36:29That's what my point also.
36:30LDF will still have the oats intact.
36:31Yes.
36:32Whether you have anti-incumbency or all this.
36:34Exactly.
36:35So we have had three elections after that delimitation.
36:37When the constituencies.
36:39In that left has never got anything less than 68.
36:42Yeah.
36:43It was 68 in 2011.
36:44In 2016 it was 91.
36:462021 it became 99.
36:48So around 40 seats.
36:49To an extent it's sure seats of LDF.
36:51So how is the oats share?
36:52Even in this municipal election.
36:54There's no major difference.
36:55How is the oats share?
36:56It's just like three, four, five percent difference.
36:57There's no major difference in the oats share to be honest.
36:59And is BJP a player in this election in this state?
37:04Because also this is the first state the minorities Christians might move towards BJP.
37:08Because they are doing a lot of outreach programs.
37:10Yes.
37:11We have seen Prime Minister celebrating Christmas last year also.
37:13Maybe this year also he will celebrate.
37:14So is that a state that the Christians will side with BJP?
37:17Will that work?
37:18There is a shift in the Christian votes.
37:20In certain areas specifically.
37:21To BJP.
37:22To BJP.
37:23Yes.
37:24The only state where this will be happening.
37:25See what's happening.
37:26Yeah.
37:27So but I think the recent instance like the nuns arrest in Chathasgarh.
37:30Yeah.
37:31It has again like you know.
37:32It seems to be over.
37:33Yes.
37:34It has again confused the Christians a bit.
37:35And the Congress has been trying to like you know.
37:37It's their vote bang.
37:38Like if the Christians start voting for BJP then it's going to affect the Congress party.
37:41Left is not affected by it.
37:42Okay.
37:43Minorities always vote for Congress in Kerala.
37:45So.
37:46But I think there is a slight shift.
37:48I don't know if that shift is enough for them to win seats for the assembly elections.
37:52But tell me this.
37:53We are talking about left but opposition.
37:54UDF.
37:55Yeah.
37:56Like how Sid Ramay and DK Shukmar are fighting for the jail.
37:58Yeah.
37:59Will it repeat then?
38:00We have more than two contenders.
38:01You have only two.
38:02We have more than two.
38:03Yeah.
38:04Ramesh Chanitala.
38:05I think it's at least normal in a state that's going to pose.
38:06Your state please.
38:07Which is good for us.
38:08A pair.
38:09Have some more.
38:10Sorry.
38:11Contenders for an upcoming election.
38:12It's good for us.
38:13Your elections are done and people are fighting.
38:14We wake up and it's breaking.
38:15It's good for us.
38:16We have more to two on.
38:17In a way like.
38:18Yeah.
38:19Coming back.
38:20So there's Satishan.
38:21There is the PCC.
38:22Is he also a player?
38:23No.
38:24He's not a player.
38:25So there's Ramesh Chanitala.
38:26There's KC Venn Gopal.
38:27Satishan.
38:28Three.
38:29Three people.
38:30So it's a three way fight.
38:31There were others also in the contest but they've all been sidelined very smartly.
38:32So it's just three people now.
38:33Stick your neck out and choose who would be the next CM if UDF comes to power.
38:35She won't do it.
38:36I'm telling you no.
38:37No.
38:38I know her choice.
38:39That's why I'm asking.
38:40No.
38:41I won't take a name.
38:42That's off camera.
38:43I can't take a name.
38:44See even if you notice in Karnataka as well when it comes to local body.
38:49One second.
38:50One second.
38:51What are the factors that led to this kind of anti incumbency that is right now ongoing?
38:56See Shabarimala was a factor but there was this interesting factor.
39:00The ward where Shabarimala is located.
39:02The Panjaya.
39:03The Munsipa.
39:04All of it has been won by the left.
39:06No.
39:07So there are.
39:08I'd say.
39:09Go ahead.
39:10Even in Karnataka if you notice even when BJP was in power.
39:13When it comes to local body urban election.
39:15It is always Congress which has an upper hand.
39:17They used to win huge numbers.
39:19But when it comes to the next level of election.
39:21When you have a state election.
39:23That's when the vote gets divided.
39:25Okay.
39:26The vote is not intact.
39:27And it is majorly because of internal politics.
39:30No.
39:31So then it's not necessarily an indicator.
39:32No.
39:33Most of the places.
39:34When it comes to South India whether it's Kerala or Karnataka.
39:36On ground it's good.
39:37But when it comes to the next level of election.
39:39That's where they go for Congress.
39:40Okay.
39:41So there are three polarizing topics in Kerala that people keep talking of.
39:43Yeah.
39:44Shabrimala.
39:45Love Jihad.
39:46Okay.
39:47And the third I'd say is what's happening in North Kerala.
39:49Constant back and forth between left and right that you constantly see.
39:53I was talking to a few Christian leaders in Kerala.
39:57They were also worried about Love Jihad.
39:59That's my point.
40:00That actually nobody realizes it's stemmed from Kerala.
40:02Yeah.
40:03There is a threat.
40:04By Christian groups.
40:05Who took on the Muslim groups.
40:06Yeah.
40:07So there's a narrative of Love Jihad against this election topic.
40:10Are these actually reflecting in elections or is it just you know.
40:13In terms of Christian communities vote getting shifted to BJP.
40:16Yes.
40:17That is a factor.
40:18There are a lot of issues.
40:19Shabrimala, Love Jihad.
40:20And the killings.
40:21No political killings.
40:22We have not had political killings because CPM is in power.
40:25And they have had multiple discussions with the political parties especially in Karnur.
40:28Like so in the last few years.
40:29It has reduced.
40:30It has reduced.
40:31We have not really had at least in the last five years.
40:33I think once or.
40:34Because Agnes you used to keep hearing.
40:36Yeah.
40:37We used to keep hearing.
40:38We have reported Karayakartas being killed.
40:39Either RSS or Karayakartas.
40:40Yeah.
40:41That's what I'm saying.
40:42Yeah that's what I'm saying.
40:43Killings do still happen.
40:44No but not at this.
40:45It's come down a little bit.
40:46Like very rarely nowadays.
40:47Like very rarely.
40:48The numbers have come down.
40:49Are there issues?
40:50Shabrimala?
40:51Love Jihad?
40:52Are there factors?
40:53Love Jihad?
40:54It's not evidently out there in Love Jihad factor.
40:56But I feel like on the ground.
40:59Especially among Christian groups.
41:00That's a factor.
41:01Like there's a growing hatred for Muslim community on the side of Christian.
41:06And it has got to coastal Karnataka also.
41:08Tell me this.
41:09We have 90 days left for the polls.
41:12Which way is Tharoor going?
41:13This morning he tweeted an analysis piece.
41:16You are from Trivandrum.
41:17He is from Trivandrum.
41:18And you have done an exclusive interview with him before.
41:20Which way is Tharoor going in the next three months?
41:22Poor Shabim.
41:23A question that nobody can answer.
41:26Areila.
41:27Areila.
41:28Correct.
41:29Is the BJP looking to fish?
41:32In troubled waters?
41:34I don't think so in Trivandrum as of now.
41:37Because Trivandrum.
41:40Because BJP.
41:41She's trying to be diplomatic.
41:42No, BJP is already gaining ground on the road you're suggesting.
41:44I don't think they will need Tharoor for in Trivandrum.
41:47Let us say he joins.
41:48Is he bringing any X factor, any addition to the BJP to the party?
41:52Some neutral votes maybe.
41:53There are a lot of youngsters who like his oratory skills and everything.
41:56That's also one reason why he wins in Trivandrum itself.
41:59Like the coastal votes.
42:01That's how he takes the lead.
42:03And also neutral votes.
42:04How do local Congress look at him?
42:06Are they not trying to tell him, listen, draw the line.
42:09I think they are not very happy with him at all.
42:11At all.
42:12It's come to a point they don't care to be honest.
42:17Shibi, one question to you.
42:19How about the star power?
42:20How about Mohanlag, Mamuti?
42:22Will they have any kind of impact?
42:23We have seen that Mohanlag was tilted towards BJP.
42:26Yes.
42:27So there was a time he started writing certain blogs and all.
42:30It looked like he was favoring the BJP.
42:33There's an insider talk that he is with the BJP.
42:37Mamuti has always been a left supporter.
42:40But quiet I think.
42:41Very quiet.
42:42But he is the chairman of Kairali, the CPIM run channel.
42:44So that's evidently out there.
42:46But you don't see both of them commenting on anything.
42:48They did not even comment on the actresses all the case.
42:50So you expect them to comment on...
42:52Will there be star campaigners coming out and campaigning for any of the leaders?
42:55No.
42:56Like some of these youngsters, yes, they do have their...
42:58Some of them, but...
42:59Vijay goes there.
43:00Vijay.
43:01Oh God, no more stampate please.
43:04No more stampate please.
43:05Okay, so let's...
43:06What do you say stampate?
43:07I'm wrapping this up.
43:08Before I wrap this up, quickly.
43:09From each of you I'm going to take...
43:11Please don't be boring.
43:12Please give me an answer.
43:13Yes.
43:14Who will win as things stand right now in Kerala and in Tamil Nadu?
43:17Should I start with Abdul?
43:18Yes.
43:19I'll start with Abdul because I know both of you won't give me answers.
43:21I think Stalin will get back.
43:23So DMK?
43:24Yeah, DMK.
43:25And the same...
43:26They will also repeat.
43:27And DF?
43:28Yeah.
43:29Okay.
43:30DMK UDF.
43:31DMK UDF.
43:32DMK UDF.
43:33For the moment DMK UDF.
43:35Yeah, DMK UDF.
43:36It's going to be unanimous I think.
43:38DMK UDF.
43:39Wow.
43:41Not just me.
43:42Wow.
43:43Okay.
43:44So as of now, most of us except Abdul Ubali's LDF Pinaray Vijayan will return.
43:49Most of us believe that in Tamil Nadu, the DMK has the edge.
43:54They've got a mammoth machine that's in place.
43:57An election machine and otherwise also.
44:00It's very tough to beat them.
44:01And the only way, correct me if I'm wrong Pramod, that the DMK actually could perhaps
44:06be taken off power or the seat of power in the next few months.
44:10It's like you said alliances.
44:12If you see everyone coming together, consolidating DMK versus the others.
44:16If that happens, then there's a strong chance.
44:19Vijay right now is very much a factor.
44:21There may be a lot of questions saying, you know, is the media hyping him up?
44:24To me, not at all.
44:25He must and is being discussed for a certain reason.
44:28Because already there's talk of him having a double digit vote share.
44:32How much that will be again?
44:33It's only December.
44:34We have three more months to go.
44:35That number could go up.
44:37That number could come down.
44:38We'll have to see how he deals with his election strategy.
44:40But he is very much a factor.
44:42AIA, DMK, BJP, they've kind of got to get their act together.
44:45If they really want to ensure that they take on the DMK and the mammoth, the monster that
44:50is DMK really in Tamil Nadu.
44:52They're going to have to get their act together.
44:54Get all parties together.
44:55You're kind of bickering with them because it's a bad image.
44:57So that essentially is what Tamil Nadu could look like next few months.
45:01I keep adding this caveat.
45:02The next few months, things could change drastically.
45:05As far as Kerala goes, I think the local elections is a sort of indicator.
45:09By that length, to that extent, will we see a wave election at this point should be unlikely.
45:16Yes.
45:17No wave election, but I think definitely in favor of the UDF.
45:20The BJP is gaining.
45:22They're doing better maybe than they've done previously.
45:25So these are two elements.
45:26Election, one more point.
45:27Sure.
45:28BJP won Trivandrum Corporation, but in the other places, they haven't really performed well.
45:33Yeah.
45:34Like they lost a municipality, they won also.
45:36Maybe you could read it as Erb.
45:37We didn't talk about Rajiv Shadrasek's impact on the BJP party.
45:42We're talking about division in Congress.
45:44There's a much bigger division in politics happening in BJP just because it's not the bigger,
45:49you know, party there.
45:50We're not, it's not out there.
45:51Okay, I have to wrap this up.
45:52I've run out of time so that we can all eat our now cold lunch and enjoy whatever's left
45:58of it right now.
45:59But thank you all very much.
46:00I know you'll all be headed back to your respective states, but we're going to keep doing this and
46:04give you a sense of what's really happening on the ground.
46:06I think rather than sitting in the studios, we're better off hearing it from them when
46:09they're on the ground telling you what's really happening, what's the political mode.
46:13But this gives you a sense of why India today is a number one election channel.
46:17We've got our ears, our feet, our eyes, call it whatever you want on the ground to give
46:22you a sense of who's really ahead, what are the issues that matter.
46:26Thanks very much for tuning in.
46:29Bye.
46:30Bye.
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