Snow shifts as weather patterns change for the first full week of 2026

AccuWeather

After multiple clippers hit the Upper Midwest with snow, milder weather will be in store for the East Coast.

Transcript

00:00In the forecast feed, we're looking ahead to the first complete week of 2026, and we

00:06have a lot to talk about here regarding some widespread milder air that's going to overspread

00:11much of the eastern and northeastern U.S. Meanwhile, a lot of snow continues to fall

00:17into parts of California. Let's take a look at what's going on. The recent pattern here

00:21going back to last month, December, we really started on a cold note across the northeast

00:27and the Great Lakes region, with temperatures that have been consistently below average

00:32in these areas. Meanwhile, in the west, it has been a very warm month of December. The

00:37pattern is changing, though. Take a look at where we're going into next week. This is

00:41going to be more zonal flow. That's what we refer to the upper-level winds when they're

00:45more west to east. Now, there might be more of a dip in the southwest, but in general,

00:49west to east Pacific air is going to be awash across much of the nation. That's going to

00:53allow the coldest air to retreat north. It will still be bottled up over parts of western

00:57Canada, but it's going to be lifting, lifting up and out of the eastern part of the U.S.

01:03here. So there's going to be a big change for us. Now, it's not going to happen too quickly.

01:07As we look at the models here, let's take a look at this current setup. We're dealing

01:11with still some lake effect snow. There's still a dip in the jet stream across the eastern

01:15U.S. So this is a feature that's been, at times, very deep. It's lifting a little bit,

01:21but it's still with us. So there's still a trough over the northeastern U.S., and that's

01:26still reinforcing that northwest to southeast flow. The clipper train continues to move

01:31through the region, but the core of the clipper path is going to be lifting a little north.

01:36Instead of it being in the Ohio Valley, impacting Indianapolis and Cincinnati, it's lifting

01:40north. It's going to be more of a northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and at times,

01:45New England pattern. So overall, these bright colors, again, are a measure of, an indication

01:51of vorticity, which is a big fancy word for spin in the atmosphere. And if you have the

01:57bright colors off to your west, that would mean that you're in a position where you're

02:01going to see extra rising motion, more snowflake production, and so forth. And even independent

02:05of that, if you got flow over the relatively warm Great Lakes this time of the year, still,

02:10they're cold water, but it's much milder than the cold, cold air aloft, then you're going

02:14to see more lake effect snow production.

02:16Now, we're going to see another clipper scoot through. That's this thing, this dip in the

02:21jet stream Saturday. And as we follow that, moving a little farther east through Sunday,

02:26it dips through the Great Lakes region and then into the northeast. And then following

02:31that, another system Sunday, Sunday night, Monday, this little pesky dip in the jet stream

02:35is going to be another snow producer for more of the Great Lakes. So let's take a look a little

02:39bit lower down to where we happen to live, and you can see the overall pattern. So currently,

02:44lake effect snow is continuing. It is overstaying its welcome downwind of Lake Ontario and to some

02:50extent Lake Erie as well. But as we move forward, here comes the next clipper, Saturday night,

02:55Sunday, a little burst of snow. Areas downwind of the lakes will again see more snow. Just trying

03:01to highlight areas that are likely to see some of that snow downwind of the lakes. And then into

03:06Sunday night, Monday, the next system, that little dip in the jet stream that we highlighted

03:10for Sunday evening, this thing, over Duluth, that's going, even though it's not a dramatic

03:15looking storm system, it's going to be producing some pretty decent snow. It's a sharp but concise

03:20dip in the jet stream that will be driving this round of relatively heavy snow late Sunday into

03:25Monday. Duluth, Rhinelander, and Eau Claire, Wisconsin, all of northern Michigan, look out for a pretty good

03:33hit of accumulating snow. And this one actually will impact different parts of northern Michigan

03:39differently than, say, the recent lake effect bands. The lake effect bands have been coming in

03:44northwest to southeast. This one's going to get places like Escanaba, Michigan, coming up from the

03:50south, that flow in advance of this low pressure system. It'll be a little different. So the southern

03:55part, the southeastern part of the upper peninsula of Michigan may see some of the heaviest snow with

03:59this one as that scoots through. So here we have the GFS snowfall forecast. And you can see the

04:05noise. Keep in mind, we're going to see way more snow than this is just showing. It's going to

04:10underrepresent the lake effect in the short term. This Friday night to Saturday morning, we're going

04:14to see a lot more snow than just... Here's the European. This is doing a better job. There's a 7.9

04:19in the areas around us. We go 8.2. That's probably more aligned with reality here with the heavy snow.

04:25So it's such a small-scale feature. It's difficult for the models to resolve. Now, beyond that,

04:31that Sunday night Monday system scoots through northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, into

04:36Michigan. And you can see the GFS produces somewhere between 3 and 6 inches of snow in

04:41some areas. A lot of 2 to 4s. There's a 4.7 up near Munising, Michigan. Take a look at the European,

04:46though. This one comes in a little more robust with that system. And this is not lake effect. This is

04:50going to be an area of low pressure that moves through with potential. There's a small zone

04:56here with a 6 plus. There near, I don't know, an area into the Iron Mountains there. But overall,

05:045, 6 inches of snow possible north of Green Bay and near the Michigan-Wisconsin line. And also,

05:12eastern parts of Minnesota will see pretty heavy snow with that, too, for a time.

05:15Our own forecast, going back to our product here, you can see our forecast for that Sunday night and

05:22Monday storm that cruises through. This is not lake effect. This is going to be generally

05:26an actual low-pressure system. We're forecasting 6 to 12 inches of snow here in areas around Ashland,

05:31Wisconsin. So northern parts of... I'm going to clear myself out of here just so you see the complete

05:36picture. The northern part of Wisconsin and into western sections of the upper peninsula of Michigan.

05:426 to 12 inches of snow there. But also 3 to 6. And again, some of these areas like Escanaba,

05:47Michigan, on the southern shore of the upper peninsula, you'll do pretty well there with

05:51some of that snow as well. Now, as we go back to the models, another storyline we're tracking

05:57amid this stronger dip in the jet stream in the west. Remember, I showed you that the flow

06:02across the central and eastern U.S. flattens out. We get rid of that big, deep trough. And the west

06:09to east flow is going to allow for warming. It's going to be a milder pattern by the middle of next

06:13week in the eastern U.S. So that'll be a change. We could see even a small ridge building into the

06:19east. A milder stretch Thursday. Meanwhile, big dip in the west. And you can see a storm developing

06:25later next week across the southern plains. That'll be tracking across the midwest with rain

06:30for the east coast. But as we look at the precipitation in the Pacific, off and on rounds

06:37of heavy rain in California and the northwest, heavy snow in the Sierra as well. Big time snow

06:43in the Sierra. Snow levels initially relatively high. That'll be coming down as the snow picks up.

06:50Feet of snow coming to the west.

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