Aleks Kapich·Apr 21, 2025Mathematics Behind Predicting Football Results — the Poisson Model, Skellam Distribution & ELO…Lately, I’ve noticed a growing trend on Twitter where many accounts dedicated to simulating football results, such as Football Rankings or…
Aleks Kapich·Apr 20, 2025Adapting Elo for Three Outcomes: Modeling Win, Draw, and LossELO ranking is one of the most popular ways of gauging relative team strength. The model originally developed for chess accounted only for…
Aleks Kapich·Dec 23, 2024Football Data-Driven Analysis — Case Study of 2023/2024 Cercle Brugge & Kévin DenkeyThis article was originally published as an X (formerly Twitter) thread a few months ago when Cercle Brugge faced Polish second-tier Wisła…
Aleks Kapich·Sep 3, 2024Nordsjælland’s Replacement for Ibrahim Osman: Data-Driven Scouting in Polish Ekstraklasa 2023/24In January 2023 left winger Ibrahim Osman joined Danish side FC Nordsjælland, the move took place owing to the Right to Dream Academy, a…
Aleks Kapich·Aug 3, 2024How to Calculate and Plot Football Match Momentum Using Event Data?In this article, I’ll walk through the steps necessary for calculating match momentum using event data. Our basis will be Expected Threat…A response icon1A response icon1
Aleks Kapich·Jul 25, 2024Passing Sonars Football Viz in Python: Full WalkthroughIn this post, I’m going to walk through the steps necessary for creating passing sonars visualization, the same as displayed above. We will…
