10 Day Trend 03/12/2025 – Staying soggy - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 03/12/2025.   A lively jet stream promises more lows and that means more spells of wet and windy weather.   Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Alex Deakin.

Transcript

00:00Welcome along to the 10-day trends. We may be in meteorological winter, but if you're here in the

00:05hope of some snow action, you're going to be disappointed. There's still plenty to get our

00:09teeth into, and there'll still be plenty falling from the sky, but it is mostly going to be

00:14rainfall. Let's have a look way up in the sky there. First of all, the big picture and where

00:20the jet stream is. Interestingly, to the east of the UK, the jet stream is in a north-south

00:26orientation, which is quite interesting, as we'll see shortly, but out in the Atlantic,

00:31very much east-west. And, well, piggybacking on top of this jet stream, low-pressure system,

00:38the jet stream pushing low-pressure after low-pressure after low-pressure our way. That's

00:44what's going to provide the outbreaks of rain. Spinning up certain areas, one moves through

00:48Friday and into Saturday, then another one appears for Saturday and into Sunday, and then down to the

00:54south. Another one then spins its way up, and this has the potential to be quite a potent area of

01:01low-pressure. One thing that has definitely changed with the jet stream, you'll have noticed in the

01:06next four or five days, it's going to shift further south. What that means, as it spins up this area

01:11of low-pressure, it's drawing up some warmer air. So it's got more energy this low. It's got a bit more

01:16about it, as well as that intensification. It's also likely to be packing a bit more rainfall,

01:21because warmer air can hold more moisture. Okay, let's rewind the clock, and I just want to

01:30bring your attention to what's going on to the east of the UK. As I mentioned, to start off with

01:35the jet stream in that north-south orientation, but to the east of the UK, the jet stream remains

01:40fairly weak. And here's why that's significant. Because we're kind of at the end of this push of

01:45the jet stream, which means the low-pressure systems are kind of grinding to a halt across the UK.

01:50They're not whizzing through and speeding off into Europe, because there's nothing to push

01:55them along here. They're all kind of grinding to a halt close to the UK, which means they're

01:59dropping more rainfall. They're not whizzing through, and that rainfall will continue to

02:04build up. So that is, as I said, the main thing we need to concern ourselves with over the next

02:1010 days, really, because it looks pretty wet, and the ground is very, very soggy indeed.

02:15The first set of weather fronts moving through during Thursday, actually developing little

02:19lows along this occluded front. That's going to slow the progress of the rain down on Thursday.

02:26It may drag its heels across eastern areas. Certainly a dull, damp start. It should brighten

02:30up in many places with some sunny spells and a few showers moving through. But then it turns

02:35quite cold. We do have a bit of a window with some clearer skies Thursday night and into Friday. So

02:41whilst a lot of the chats in this 10-day trend is going to be of rainfall and how mild it's going

02:46to be, it is going to be quite cold on Friday morning. A hint of blue on the chart there,

02:50frost across eastern areas, and that is some potentially quite dense patches of fog forming

02:54across East Anglia and the Southeast. So we do need to watch out for that on Friday morning.

02:59Behind me though, the next weather system is waiting in the wings. That's developing,

03:05first developing low. That's getting spun up by the jet stream. Notice the tightly packed

03:09isobars. So a spell of wet and windy weather to move through during Friday. That low is still

03:14providing plenty of showers on Saturday. There is a bit of a bump in the isobars here. That could

03:20offer a bit of a, again, a bit of a respite Saturday night and into Sunday before that next

03:24low comes in. Again, those tangle of weather fronts providing persistent rain moving through

03:31and some heavy bursts as well before we look down to the southwest and that low we highlighted

03:36earlier intensifying for Monday. But let's get through the weekend. First of all, well,

03:40Friday and the weekend. This is the 24 hour rainfall totals as they build up through Friday and into

03:47Saturday. So from one o'clock Friday to one o'clock Saturday, the rainfall totals we're looking at.

03:52You can pick out the hills there, southwest England, the moors, particularly south Wales,

03:56a very sensitive area to rainfall at the moment. Likely to see 30 to 40 millimeters of rainfall,

04:03but areas further north as well, hills of north Wales. Notice the peaks of yellows there. We

04:07could see as much as 50 millimeters of rain. One of the wettest parts of the country into the weekend

04:13during Saturday like to be eastern parts of Scotland. Again, over the high ground,

04:17more than 50 millimeters of rain likely here. So those are the areas like to see the heaviest rain

04:23during Friday and into Saturday. And then to Sunday, we'll see another band of rain moving

04:29through because it's been so wet. The rainfall, particularly in western areas, likely to cause

04:34some problems as we go through the weekend. But in parts of the east, we are still running at a

04:38rainfall deficit, of course, because it's been one of those years. Now, as we run through Sunday nights,

04:45that weather system should start to pull away. But then eyes drawn down to the southwest. As we saw

04:51earlier, this low pressure system intensifying, bringing with it some warmer air and bringing with it

04:57plenty of moisture as well. Now, at the moment, it looks like it's going to develop and gain its

05:01intensity well away from the UK. That's when it's at its most potent in terms of its wind strength,

05:06as it really develops and intensifies. But that looks like happening way out in the Atlantic. But

05:12there's this kind of lead time, five days away, always going to be a little bit of uncertainty.

05:17Now, the computer models are kind of agreeing. If I show you the European model for the same time frame,

05:23it's got a pretty similar story with low pressure systems out here. And there's that one that's

05:28developing and quite intense. Whilst the overall pattern is similar, just how quickly this low

05:36develops and where it spins up and intensifies. Well, there's going to be a bit of uncertainty about

05:41that five days ahead. And I can show you that using this plot, putting the Met Office model back on,

05:46but the oranges and the reds highlighting the difference between the European model and the Met Office

05:51model. You can see in this zone here, that's where the biggest difference is, the darker the orangey red,

05:56the bigger the difference. So there's the biggest differences close to this area of low pressure

06:01for Monday and into Tuesday. So that is, as I say, one area we need to watch. But both the models,

06:07in fact, most of the main computer models we look at all showing something similar with this low,

06:12quite intense, quite deep, spreading its way up towards the west of the UK, packing with it some

06:17gusty winds and also, yes, more rainfall. And coming up from the southwest, it's going to be

06:23the southwest and quarter of the UK that bears the brunt of that heavy rain as we head into the

06:28new working week. And we're probably not done there with rainfall either. Looking into next week,

06:34this is the probability plot where we kind of pigeonhole the different pressure patterns into

06:40into groups, what the flavour of the weather may be. And notice the pale blues. Those of you hoping

06:47for cold air know that's not frosts, that's low pressure systems. The palest blue of all,

06:52low pressure tracking across the south of the UK. That's the most likely scenario into the early

06:58part of next week. Other blues take over, but similar weather patterns as well. Southwesterly winds

07:04dominated by low pressure. Interestingly, even though we've got low pressure sitting across the UK

07:10through the weekend, the most likely pressure pattern is still classified as high pressure,

07:14Scandinavian high. And that's going back to what we talked about earlier with that active jet stream

07:20across the UK. But as we go to the east of the UK, higher pressure is dominating across Scandinavia,

07:26blocking those weather systems coming in. That's why they're grinding to a halt across the UK. So

07:31even though we've got Scandinavian high set up and high pressure across Scandinavia, which can extend

07:37and bring the UK colder and drier weather, it isn't on this occasion because we've got those

07:42low pressures moving in. So even that overall, that overall pressure pattern is with a Scandinavian high,

07:48it doesn't always mean that we see dry weather. And in this case, far from it. But certainly through

07:53next week, we're like to see low pressure continuing to dominate. And that is shown quite clearly here on

07:59the most probable pressure patterns. The first, the most likely, the second most likely, and the third most

08:06likely all kind of showing the same thing. They're all very similar with low pressure sitting somewhere

08:11to the west of the UK. And it's very similar even as we head through Wednesday and Thursday. Add up all

08:18those percentages over 40% that it's going to be something similar to this. Low pressure sitting

08:23somewhere to the west of the UK. The blue on the chart here, that's rainfall anomaly. So the difference

08:29from usual for this time of year, it's not where necessarily it's going to rain, it's where we're going to

08:34see more rain than usual. You can see it's always picking out western or southwestern parts of the UK.

08:40For each of these scenarios really, even into Thursday, the third most likely scenario there

08:46has low pressure sitting to the south, but the other two still sitting out to the west of the UK.

08:51And even Friday, still very similar. The most likely pressure pattern again with low sitting somewhere

08:56to the south or the west of the UK. 30% chance over a week away. That is quite a high percentage chance.

09:02And you add on these other two as well, which are pretty similar. Over 50% chance that that is

09:07what we're going to see. So that is quite a high probability that low pressure is going to dominate

09:12sitting out somewhere to the west of the UK. That generates winds coming up from the southwest.

09:17It means the rainfall is focused across the south and the west. And it also means it's going to be

09:23pretty mild. The winds coming in from a relatively mild Atlantic, not going to provide us with any really

09:30cold air. And that's what this graph is showing. The ensemble run from the European model ECMWF.

09:38When we run the model many, many times, each of these black lines is representing the temperature

09:43from each of those ensemble members, each of those model runs. Now you get the variation day and night

09:49going forward. So you get that oscillation between day and night. But you also get overall that pattern of

09:55things being pretty mild. Now, this is for London. If you drew a line through the average, you'll be

10:00looking at, what, 10, 11 degrees, probably something like that. It does show that dip Thursday night

10:05into Friday morning. It will be quite cold. And we will get that dip. But even the coldest ensemble

10:10members, even beyond next week, and into the following, very few of them are showing temperatures

10:16getting down even at night, close to freezing. And those daytime highs, somewhere I say close to

10:22double figure. So it's likely to stay very mild even into the following weekend. And if I show you

10:29Edinburgh, it's also showing something very similar. Again, get that dip Thursday night into Friday.

10:34But generally, the temperatures are rising still with that day night oscillation. And even as things get

10:41pretty messy and really hard to predict into the following weekend, even then that some of the

10:46coldest members, even some of the coldest ensembles barely getting much below freezing. So no real sign

10:52of anything too cold. Generally, certainly through next week, it's going to be on the mild side across

10:58all parts of the UK, both by day and by night. As always, do keep up to date with the forecast from

11:05the Met Office. Best way to do that, of course, follow us on social media. If you haven't done already,

11:09you really want to be subscribing to our YouTube channel.

10 Day Trend 03/12/2025 – Staying soggy

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