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00:00Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers tonight.
00:03Monday night football.
00:04You see the line there on seven to seven and a half,
00:06depending on where you're shopping.
00:07And the total 49 and a half.
00:09But how about this?
00:10San Francisco looking for a playoff spot?
00:12The Carolina Panthers looking to win their division.
00:16Where were we just a few short weeks ago
00:17when Tampa Bay was going to run away with this thing?
00:19Now Carolina with a win?
00:20That would put them in if the season ended today.
00:23Incredible stuff.
00:24What's your spread line tonight?
00:26Yeah, well, interesting, Donnie,
00:28because the thing that stuck out to me here all week long was,
00:32listen, the 49ers opened up six and a half point favorite.
00:34It's at seven, which is about right here
00:37for this 49ers team in prime time at home.
00:40But that total opened up 45, 45 and a half, Donnie.
00:44And we're at 49 and a half and even a 50 in town.
00:47So we're talking a four and a half, five and a half point line move
00:50on the total from the open a week ago.
00:54It's clear the market thinks.
00:57We're getting points here tonight and who can blame them?
01:00It's not like either of these two defenses can be trusted to stop anybody,
01:03but it feels like the 49ers and maybe some team totals definitely in play here tonight.
01:10Let's get the Thanksgiving action mid-afternoon.
01:12If you watched the NFL yesterday, the NFL was going to have a, you know,
01:16prevention line to prevent them from shutting the season down.
01:19You saw the Indianapolis Colts hammering the Kansas City Chiefs,
01:22the Philadelphia Eagles hammering the Dallas Cowboys,
01:26which would mean a game that was basically meaningless on Thanksgiving.
01:29A couple of phone calls were made, flags started to fly,
01:32and teams started to come back.
01:33Now, Joe, Kansas City and Dallas, unbelievable theater,
01:37two teams clinging on to life for their NFL season.
01:41Kansas City is a three and a half point favorite
01:42and a total of 51 and a half up from 47 and a half.
01:45We have life in a game that was absolutely dead on arrival
01:49midway through those games yesterday.
01:52Well, Donnie, what I was going to be very interested in seeing here was
01:56we already knew Kansas City had won in overtime early, right?
02:00We knew, well, what was the Dallas final going to be?
02:04It didn't look good early, and I was keeping an eye.
02:06The look ahead line in this one was, in fact, with Kansas City,
02:11right around three and a half, maybe a four point favorite after they won.
02:14And I said, all right, let's see what happens.
02:17If Dallas loses this game, I'm fairly certain the money is going to continue
02:21to roll in on Kansas City.
02:23But when Dallas comes back and wins that game,
02:26while we're waking up this morning, now we're seeing just a field goal.
02:30The total hovering still around 51, 51 and a half.
02:35But Dallas now seems to, pulling off that win,
02:38that come from behind win against the Eagles,
02:40it looks like the market's starting to turn a little bit here
02:43and feels that maybe giving the home team a field goal or more,
02:47maybe not the best strategy.
02:49I'm going to be interested to see what happens here over the next 24 to 48 hours
02:53with this line, Donnie.
02:55Does it continue to move to Dallas?
02:57Or does Kansas City Chiefs, does that public money come back in
03:01and start raising it once again?
03:03The energy is high right here on a Monday edition of the early line.
03:07A little armchair quarterback action, what happened yesterday.
03:09And also looking for what's going to happen today,
03:11which you might be thinking out there, people.
03:13Come on, man.
03:14Carolina, San Francisco, Monday night.
03:15Who picked that one a couple weeks ago?
03:17Who would think that both of these teams have major, major chips to play for?
03:22San Francisco looking to get into the playoffs.
03:24Carolina looking to win their division.
03:26I'm Donnie Wright, said he's Joe Aneri.
03:28Now we're going to bring in Tom Vecchio to get his perspective on tonight's game
03:31and much more.
03:31Tom, how are you feeling on this Monday?
03:33I'm doing good.
03:34It was a great Sunday of NFL action.
03:36A lot of games going to overtime.
03:38A lot of close games.
03:39You know, a few blowouts here and there.
03:40But I think we are in for a surprisingly exciting game tonight.
03:45And I'm of the belief that the Panthers are not as good as their record indicates.
03:50But I still think there's plenty of angles to attack tonight.
03:53Yeah, we're getting set up on a couple things, I believe, in this game.
03:56Because we'll get to some of these numbers and the props and the way it turns out.
03:58But it is interesting that Carolina, watching Tampa Bay sort of melt down now.
04:02Baker Mayfield, we don't know if he's going to be out long term.
04:04Short term, playing next week, not playing next week.
04:06We don't know.
04:07But the one thing we do know is Carolina is playing much better football.
04:10San Francisco doesn't have a great defense.
04:11But, Tom, I'll start right here.
04:13I look at Bryce Young's numbers, and I got to keep taking another look at it.
04:17Low 200s for his passing prop.
04:20Correct me if I'm wrong.
04:20We're looking at a dude throwing for like five bills just a week ago.
04:23And San Francisco doesn't have a good defense.
04:25Are we being set up with these numbers here tonight from Carolina and San Francisco?
04:29It certainly feels that way, where Bryce Young has not been good.
04:34The offense has been very slow and sluggish at times.
04:37You know, are you buying into him just getting there based on attrition?
04:40Are you buying into them being in a full passing game trip?
04:43And it may not be an efficient way to get to 200, 225 yards, whatever.
04:46But he gets there because he needs to.
04:48That's what you have to determine.
04:49And I'm not, like, I'm not a big Bryce Young guy.
04:52I'm not betting on him.
04:53But I wouldn't fault someone for saying they're just going to have to pass the ball.
04:57Yeah.
04:58Yeah.
04:59It's interesting here because we've seen the, we mentioned it earlier in the spread lines.
05:0445 and a half was the opening total in this game.
05:07We're up to 50 now throughout the week.
05:10And I get it from the 49ers perspective.
05:13The question from the Carolina perspective is, are they going to add enough here to be able to fly over this 50 number?
05:22Or are we overestimating the kind of offense we're getting here?
05:25I think it's a bit of an overestimation.
05:27And, you know, to say that the 49ers would have to do 75% of the lifting in this, I think, is fair.
05:33Where the Panthers, if the Panthers get to 17, I think is reasonable, maybe 20.
05:38You know, the 49ers can win this game 30 to 20 and we're right at the number.
05:42You know, ultimately, I want to start off with a first half under.
05:46And, you know, don't play a lot of these.
05:47You often don't get favorable lines.
05:48But I saw 25 and a half out there on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
05:52Normally, the lines are 23 and a half, 24 and a half.
05:54A 25 and a half first half total is way too high.
05:57Second halves are different.
05:59That's when teams are going for two.
06:00But three touchdowns and a field goal gets us to 24 points.
06:04So we need four touchdowns, essentially, in order to get over 25 and a half or three touchdowns, two field goals, whatever it might be.
06:11So first half under 25 and a half is the way to go.
06:15I don't see the Panthers come out firing.
06:17The games that they win are ugly and they're close late and they come away with a late score.
06:21They're not getting out and flying and up 20 to nothing.
06:24You look at San Francisco last week.
06:26Brock Purdy comes back very efficient, Tom.
06:2819 of 26, three touchdown passes, no interceptions.
06:31McCaffrey only got the ball 13 times out of the backfield, but 81 yards and two rushing touchdowns.
06:35We also have to look at the opposite side.
06:37Like Arizona doesn't have a great defense, but Joe Kobe present 47 of 57 in that game for 452.
06:43Now, it was a blowout and they're attacking on a lot of yards late.
06:45We understand that.
06:46But is the way to attack tonight the Carolina Panthers airing it out?
06:49Because Ted does have a low number on the outside as well.
06:52Or, Tom, what wide receivers are you looking at in this game between San Francisco and Carolina?
06:57I think Ted McMillan is a great way to go about this.
07:00You know, at the end of the day, they don't have a whole lot of options.
07:03Xavier Leggett, Jalen Coker, like these are good players.
07:06They shouldn't be having more than, you know, six targets on a game-by-game basis.
07:10Ted McMillan should be having 8, 9, 10 on a game-by-game basis.
07:13But I want to turn to the San Francisco side of things, go to Ricky Pearsall, over 19 and a half for his longest reception.
07:19You know, he came back last week, only played on 75% of snaps, only had the one catch, not a big deal.
07:23But when we look back to when he was healthy this year and last year, he is their deep ball guy.
07:28This year, he is a 15.2 ADOT, average depth of target.
07:31And he is the guy that they send down the field.
07:33And it makes a lot of sense because Kittle and McCaffrey are operating underneath.
07:37And it leaves a lot of room for Ricky Pearsall downfield.
07:40So, last year, he's regularly breaking off receptions, 20, 30, 40 yards.
07:44And we saw this earlier in the year, you know, the first week to start against the Seahawks.
07:47He's getting 45, 30-yard receptions, whatever it might be.
07:50I think they have to get him back involved in the offense.
07:54Last week was just a matter of the game script getting out of control, and he didn't have to do a whole lot.
07:58But I see him getting involved early and often this week.
08:00Yeah, he'll have a favorable, Matt, because that secondary, too, is giving up all sorts of yardage to slot guys.
08:08And Pearsall should have a field day.
08:10But so should McCaffrey, too.
08:12It looks like we got backup linebackers now for the Panthers.
08:16Roseboom is out, which means who's covering McCaffrey out of the backfield to catch passes exactly here, Becky O.
08:23It feels like his receiving prop is something we should be looking at.
08:26Right, we've talked about the Panthers before where there were some metrics to back up their run defense being, you know, somewhat good at times, you know, maybe a sneaky good.
08:35This is also a revenge game for McCaffrey if you want to factor that in.
08:38So the receiving area for McCaffrey is far more interesting to me rather than his rush, just straight up rushing.
08:44You could go rushing, receiving combined.
08:46Obviously, we're never getting a discount on that.
08:48But, you know, McCaffrey's touchdown number is never going to be favorable for us as well.
08:52He gets in the end zone, I don't want to bet on it, but the receiving for McCaffrey, that alone is the best way to go about betting him.
08:58What are your thoughts here moving forward on the 49ers, Tom?
09:01Because you see they picked up that victory against the lowly Cardinals last week.
09:03They have the Panthers tonight to pick up that win.
09:05Back-to-back games then with the Browns and the Titans before they take on the Colts.
09:09This is a team with seven wins, which would very easily be a double-digit win team and so many injuries and a bad defense.
09:14But we knew coming into the season, Tom, one of the softer schedules was the 49ers, and they're taking advantage of it now.
09:20Yeah, I talked about this with Brady last night.
09:21But if you look at the NFC odds overall, it's easy to say that we can throw the Rams up there, we can throw the Eagles, the Lions.
09:29I have interest in putting the 49ers essentially fourth on that list.
09:33I'm not sold on Green Bay.
09:34They're great defense.
09:35Their offense is absolutely terrible.
09:37You know, I'm not sold on the Bucs, obviously.
09:39So if there's a time, it's now to buy in on the 49ers before they go on another, you know, rattle off another three wins.
09:45And granted, these may not be the most impressive wins that they pick up, and the schedule is very soft, but they are in a spot to be a wild-card team.
09:53I don't think they'll win a division.
09:54And the NFC West this year is this year's NFC North, where three teams are going to make the playoffs.
09:59And the 49ers are a team that have the coaching.
10:01They have the offense.
10:03The defense is the issue for them.
10:04But you give a long number, 30-1, to win the Super Bowl or whatever it is for the NFC Championship, that's the most interesting before they go on the streak.
10:12Interesting times ahead for the Niners.
10:14They'll play tonight.
10:14Also interesting for the Kansas City Chiefs.
10:16They'll play on Thursday.
10:17It's Tom Vecchio joining us, rising and grinding.
10:19Thanks for joining us, Tom, with that energy we need on Thanksgiving East Week.
10:23For Donnie and Joe, we'll be right back.
10:25Oh, tonight, Monday Night Football.
10:27Just had Tom Vecchio on talking about this game.
10:29But let's get into some of the numbers here, talking about the game script and also the side and the total.
10:34If we take a look at the way this line opened up, Joe, seven points was a touchdown favorite for San Francisco.
10:40That number's not there anymore.
10:41It's seven and a half across the board.
10:42A total, which was around that 46 and a half range, now up to 49 and a half.
10:48Both of these defenses certainly are vulnerable.
10:50The question's going to be is, are we getting a better version out of the San Francisco 49ers now that we've inserted Brock Purdy back for another week and the team getting healthier on offense?
10:58They should be able to move the football.
11:00But, Joe, is it enough for the 49ers to cover a seven and a half point number?
11:05No, I think it is.
11:06I think the 49ers win this game by double digits.
11:09It's just, it's too much offense now.
11:12I think they're a little bit underrated.
11:14But what Purdy now having Kittle, Pearsall, McCaffrey back, it's, this is a potent offense.
11:22Not to mention that they've gone up tempo this year with Shanahan.
11:26And they are a matchup nightmare, especially for a defense that is a little banged up here and wasn't very good to begin with, with Carolina.
11:35Not to mention prime time, extra time to prepare.
11:40It's advantage, absolutely, here with the 49ers.
11:44And I think it's just too much offense.
11:46And I think what happens then is you, Carolina has to become a little one-dimensional in the second half, Donnie.
11:51And then they become a little more predictable.
11:53And, yeah, I expect that the 49ers will put up points and likely win by double digits.
12:00Yeah, I'm looking forward to the offense night for the 49ers.
12:02That's really an attack point, but also you do need a running mate, as we always like to say, again, where it's like, okay, if you want the total, one team you hope doesn't score 42 points, the other team gets, you know, 10 points.
12:11You want that thing to be like, okay, everybody still wants to score points in the fourth quarter.
12:15But I find myself looking at this number for Bryce Young and saying 204 and a half.
12:19Seems like such a low price point for him.
12:21Touchdown passes over one and a half, plus 124.
12:24I think Brock Purdy gets his, but, like, is Bryce Young against this defense really going to throw for like a buck 75?
12:29But also if we think the 49ers are going to win this football game, Bryce is going to be throwing the football religiously in the second half here, or am I wrong?
12:37No, I think you're spot on here.
12:39Listen, the Panthers' offensive line has been like musical chairs all season, Donnie.
12:45The one thing that they have not done well all year long is deal with the blitz.
12:49But the good news is the 49ers don't blitz.
12:53They can't blitz.
12:5577, 78%, I believe, standard rush rate.
12:58They're only bringing four guys.
13:00Why?
13:00Because all their injuries, they can't afford to leave guys in the secondary shorthanded.
13:05So they don't blitz at all, which means the Panthers, even with a makeshift offensive line, should be able to handle the pass rush.
13:13And, of course, they should have some success throwing the ball.
13:17Yeah, take a look at the receiving props.
13:19George Kittle, 56 1⁄2.
13:20He's listed at.
13:21Tep McMillan, 65 1⁄2.
13:22McCaffrey, 43 1⁄2, and so on and so forth down the list.
13:25Ricky Pearsall, who Tom Vecchio likes in this game for the longest catch.
13:28He's listed at 40 1⁄2 yards.
13:30But the rushing props, probably going to be the key to the game.
13:33Christian McCaffrey, we know.
13:34He's going to get that ball 15-plus times in the backfield.
13:3671 1⁄2 is his price point.
13:38Rico Dowdle, he's probably the key to the game, Joe.
13:41And I don't mean that Carolina has to hand the football 40 times to win this game.
13:45But if you can keep that defense honest, which isn't very good, that opens up that play-action pass.
13:50So Rico Dowdle, to me, 74 1⁄2.
13:52If he can get that number, Carolina's right in this football game.
13:57Yeah, and he better get it early because the further they trail in the game,
14:02the less running they're going to be doing here.
14:05So, yes, they need to control clock and tempo early.
14:09But, you know, the 49ers, they've kicked it into another gear.
14:13Mack Jones and even here with Purdy.
14:17Shanahan's running one of the fastest-paced offenses here in the league this year.
14:22Hurry up, get to the line of scrimmage.
14:23Let's go.
14:24It's putting defenses on their heels rather quickly.
14:27By the way, it feels like we never get true odds at times here.
14:30And also, we understand when the books have to post a line, they don't want you betting it here.
14:33Look at the anytime touchdown props in this game.
14:35Christian McCaffrey, minus $3.60 to $3.70 where you're shopping at right now.
14:40If you want to put that price point up there, Joe, give me the null option then.
14:44How about that?
14:46Well, listen, and the way Kittle has been playing, I'll take Kittle at plus money, any plus money.
14:52You can have McCaffrey.
14:53I'll take Kittle in the red zone because he has been an absolute machine.
14:58And once again, backup line.
14:59But I don't know who's covering him on that defense for Carolina.
15:03So, on plus money, I'll take George Kittle.
15:06Yeah, you look at this going through and you say to yourself, you know, which way would you want to go?
15:10Do you think McCaffrey scores a touchdown?
15:11Of course we do.
15:12But a $3.60 price point is, hey, you know what?
15:14Things we've seen crazier happen where you might get a vulture touchdown coming in from Brian Robinson Jr.
15:19But you do think that we're getting two touchdown passes from the San Francisco 49ers and Brock Purdy.
15:24Juwan Jennings, plus $175.
15:25Ricky Pearsall, plus $200.
15:27And he said George Kittle had a plus $120 price.
15:30Those are probably the options that I'm looking forward to tonight.
15:32But, Joe, if I ask you this, are we going over this total tonight?
15:36Oh, yes.
15:36I think we're flying over the total here tonight.
15:39There we go.
15:40Good weather conditions again out there in San Francisco.
15:42Let's see what happens.
15:43Because why?
15:44Hour number two is coming up next.
15:45We're only getting started.
15:46Come on back with us.
15:47Exciting Monday morning show right here on The Early Line.
15:50Setting the table for your sports grid day in a massive week across all sports landscapes.
15:55NHL is going to be rolling.
15:56College basketball, the NBA, college football, and also the NFL.
16:01So it's our job to get you in the know and reach out and say, you know what?
16:04Sometimes we actually need some input from the public tonight.
16:07And that deals with the Monday night football game.
16:09Here's our favorite public poll.
16:10Donnie, where'd I find this poll at right here?
16:20It's easy.
16:21Go to SportsGrid on X and hit the follow button there each and every morning.
16:25Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
16:27We ask you a question.
16:28And we need your opinion on.
16:29The question's simple for tonight.
16:31Who are you betting tonight in Panthers versus 49ers on Monday night football?
16:35Four options.
16:36The over, the under.
16:37Or the Panthers with the points.
16:38Or the 49ers to cover the spread.
16:39Right now, Joe, 38.3% live.
16:43That's the Panthers at plus seven and a half.
16:45That's who the public's going with, Joe.
16:47Do you agree?
16:48Disagree?
16:48Total?
16:49Side?
16:49What do you think?
16:51Oh, we're about to find out here.
16:52I do think the points are coming here, Donnie, though, tonight.
16:57And not only a team total might be in play here, I think, for the 49ers.
17:02But I absolutely think that we're getting over the 49 and a half in this one as well.
17:08Yeah, hopefully we get some points tonight.
17:10You need the running, mate, Joe.
17:12I know San Francisco's going to be pressing it down.
17:14Come on, Tett McMillan.
17:15Come on, Bryce Young.
17:16Come on, Canales.
17:17Dial up some plays so the people out there can certainly enjoy and get that total.
17:21We'll see who wins the side.
17:22But also, it's one of those games that you saw, again, two weeks ago on Monday night.
17:24Oh, they're throwing us a clunker.
17:26A lot of high stakes tonight for both of these teams.
17:29Carolina could be the leader of their own division with a road victory tonight.
17:32We'll see how that plays out and have some fun.
17:34But, Joe, you know what we've got to get to?
17:36The people want their money.
17:37It's a Monday.
17:38It's time for some best bets.
17:39Here's bye, bye, bye.
17:47NBA, college basketball, NHL, NFL.
17:51So many different ways to play tonight's card, Joe.
17:53Where are we following the money and getting after it with?
17:56Well, Donnie, we will go to this NFL game here tonight, Monday night football with the
18:0249ers and Carolina.
18:05And I'll tell you this, much like last night where I looked at that line and said, I don't
18:12get it here.
18:13Why are the Rams not a bigger favorite?
18:16You know, they've got a team coming in that's banged up, that has injuries, certainly across
18:21the offensive line and some skill position guys, barely a 500 team.
18:26Like, what are we doing here?
18:28Well, sure enough, the Rams steamrolled the Tampa Bay Bucs last night.
18:32And I can make the same exact argument here tonight.
18:35Even though there's only a game separating these two in the win-loss column, Donnie, these
18:41two teams are not created equally, which creates a ton of value on the 49ers who are getting
18:48healthier at the right time.
18:50And this is just the tale of one team being able to score and probably score at will versus
18:56another team that is never going to be able to play a shootout type of affair with the
19:0249ers.
19:03I think the 49ers win this game by double digits.
19:05I think they win it easily.
19:07I will fade the public, but I do think points are coming.
19:10And I certainly think that Carolina will have enough opportunities to add enough, but
19:15ultimately, maybe to the over, but ultimately will not be keeping this game close.
19:20I like the 49ers to do what the Rams did last night and handle business rather easily at
19:25home.
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