Pandemic Impact on Key Business Sectors

The UK Insolvency Service’s September 2024 corporate insolvency statistics show a mixed trend across different types of insolvency procedures. There were 1,575 creditors’ voluntary liquidations (CVLs), representing 80% of all company insolvencies, a 2% rise from August but a 9% decline from September 2023. Compulsory liquidations dropped by 18% compared to August and 13% compared to September last year, continuing their decline after rising post-pandemic. Administrations, however, saw a sharp increase of 40% month-on-month and 19% year-on-year, signalling heightened distress among businesses seeking restructuring. Company voluntary arrangements (CVAs) were up 55% from the previous year but down 15% compared to August, while receiverships remained rare, with none recorded in September 2024. The industries hardest hit by insolvencies over the past year were construction, wholesale and retail trade, and accommodation and food services, reflecting ongoing economic pressures in these sectors. Overall, the September 2024 figures indicate a slight increase in insolvencies compared to August 2024, but a 7% reduction year-on-year, suggesting that while business distress persists, there are some signs of stabilisation in the economy. The data underscores the continuing impact of inflation, energy costs, and other economic factors on UK businesses. What industries are thriving and what are struggling right now Struggling industries: 1. Online book retailing is also contracting, with revenue falling by over 28%, as the industry faces rising competition and changes in consumer behavior. 2. Live animal wholesaling has been hit hard by Brexit-related labour shortages and increased regulation, leading to a 24% revenue decline. Thriving industries: 1. Financial and insurance activities are leading the growth sectors, with revenue expected to rise by 10.6% due to increased demand for financial services and a strong recovery from pandemic-related disruptions. 2. Mining and quarrying, excluding coal, is benefiting from rising commodity prices, with 9.2% growth. 3. Arts, entertainment, and recreation have bounced back strongly post-pandemic, with growth of nearly 7%, reflecting increased consumer spending on leisure activities. 4. Waste management and remediation services are also growing steadily, driven by rising environmental regulations and a focus on sustainability. These contrasting trends reflect broader shifts in the UK economy, such as the transition to renewable energy, evolving consumer habits, and the impact of global economic conditions on traditional industries.

Nonresidential construction of “office” buildings is now split by the Census Bureau along two lines: data centers versus general office buildings. The two charts below show that construction in these subsectors is the proverbial “tale of two markets.” Thoughts: •The top chart shows price and seasonally adjusted construction spending on data centers. Value of construction put in Place in December 2025 (most recent data) was 40% above 2024 levels. Year-over-year, price adjusted value of construction was up 25%. Construction surged in 2023, which aligns with the widespread popularity of AI programs like ChatGPT. • The bottom chart shows price and seasonally adjusted construction spending on general office buildings. We can see a precipitous decline since 2019 due to the COVID-19 pandemic upending traditional work arrangements. Spending on the eve of the pandemic was 94% higher than 2024 levels. Spending in December 2025 was 22% below 2024 levels. •Such construction spending shifts have important implications for manufacturers and transportation providers. Data centers require more steel, cooling units, backup electricity, etc. Office buildings require a lot more furniture. It should come as no surprise that sectors like manufacturing sectors like production of construction steel (https://lnkd.in/gMgbryih), architectural & structural metals (https://lnkd.in/gC-zqdyF), and batteries (https://lnkd.in/gnKjdp4D) are doing very well. In contrast, sectors like office furniture manufacturing (https://lnkd.in/gjtGEknD) and carpet (https://lnkd.in/gjsj_AxX) continue to struggle [note, carpet is also being negatively affected by weak single-family housing conditions). Implication: data center construction is an important driver of strong flatbed trucking demand at the moment. However, outside of data centers, we are seeing declining construction spending on manufacturing plants and warehouses. Given increased pushback against data centers (https://lnkd.in/gqF9bk55), these data merit close monitoring. My sense is 2026’s demand for data centers will remain red hot, but its far less certain if this torrid construction pace will maintain by the second half of 2027. #supplychain #construction #freight #trucking #truckload #logistics    

Lasting impacts of the pandemic on consumption. It is now more than 4 years since the pandemic started. Probably enough time to observe the permanent changes in US consumer spending. The chart below shows the change since the pre-pandemic period in consumer purchases for selected categories. Since Q4 2019, U.S. consumption behavior has experienced some significant shifts, largely influenced by the pandemic's long-lasting effects on lifestyle and spending patterns. One of the most pronounced changes is the dramatic increase in purchasing of technology and communication equipment. For instance, purchases of telephone-related equipment have surged by 140%, and spending on video, audio, photographic, and information processing equipment has risen by 93%. Another notable trend is the shift toward purchasing of recreational goods rather than services. Purchases of sporting equipment, supplies, guns, and ammunition increased by 51%, while purchases of recreational books rose by 39%. These figures suggest that consumers have turned to home-based or individual recreational activities, perhaps as a lasting change from pre-pandemic behavior. This shift is further emphasized by the relatively modest 4% increase in spending on recreation services, indicating that group-based recreational activities and services have not fully recovered and may face ongoing challenges in returning to pre-pandemic trajectories. Health and wellness have also emerged as a key area of consumer focus. Purchases of paramedical services has increased by 26%, and pharmaceutical and other medical products have seen a 25% rise in expenditures. In contrast, purchases of tobacco have experienced a significant decline. Overall, the data indicates some profound shifts in U.S. consumer behavior since the pandemic, with an increased emphasis on technology, home-based recreation, and health, while some traditional services and goods have seen reduced demand. #economy #consumption #pandemic #labormarkets 

The value of approvals of commercial property has peaked, and we expect commercial construction activity to be modest in the coming years. Several issues have impacted the post-pandemic commercial property market: Structural change, including hybrid working models and online alternatives to in-person business events and meetings, have weakened the relationship between employment growth, office use and central business district retail and hotel use. Cyclical impacts, including higher funding costs and labour shortages in construction, have added to the risk or reduced the feasibility of some projects. “Crowding out” of investment from public sector and renewable energy infrastructure may limit the feasibility of some commercial building projects in the longer term. The office pipeline shows a surprising bright spot within commercial property, while retail property development is stagnating (along with retail consumption ex inflation) and hotel construction activity is showing cautious improvements as visitor nights crawl back to pre-COVID levels. ANZ Research subscribers can read the full report at www.research.anz.com.

𝐊-𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐞𝐝 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐂𝐎𝐕𝐈𝐃 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧- The Indian economy has been recovering from the COVID-19 recession at a relatively fast pace, but the recovery has been uneven, leading to concerns about a K-shaped recovery. Some sectors and segments of the population are recovering quickly, others are lagging behind or even getting worse off. 𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐊-𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐞𝐝 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚- ➡ Some sectors, such as IT, pharma, and e-commerce, have benefited from the pandemic, while others, such as hospitality, tourism, and retail, have been severely affected. ➡ The government's support measures have been more effective in reaching some groups like poor households than informal sector workers. ➡ The digital economy has played a key role in the recovery, but it has also exacerbated existing inequalities. 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐊-𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐞𝐝 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 ⚠ The gap between the rich and the poor is widening, which could lead to social unrest and political instability. ⚠ The K-shaped recovery is making it harder for people from disadvantaged backgrounds to move up the economic ladder. ⚠ The uneven recovery may hinder India's long-term economic growth. #recession #jobopportunities #economicgrowth

Matt Palucci and I have been digging into post-pandemic trends in Canada’s business landscape. Here are a few highlights from our latest paper: Already on the downshift trajectory before COVID-19, Canada's #businessdynamism is struggling to get back on its feet. A sluggish rate of new business entries and growth in business bankruptcies resulted in deteriorating business creations. Companies employing more than 20 and less than 500 employees are at the forefront of this downturn. Growth in the number of active firms within these cohorts declined during the pandemic and remained sluggish since 2021, leaving a sizeable gap compared to their pre-pandemic trends. At the industry level, several sectors are growing at a much slower pace than before the pandemic. While some are adjusting to more sustainable growth, others are clearly suffering from the pandemic-related challenges, including shifts in the labour market or consumer behaviour. On the other hand, several sectors have emerged from the pandemic stronger. The knowledge-based sectors are showing robust growth, likely boosting productivity. Looking ahead, easier financing and improving labour market conditions could support a rebound in business creations. However, additional policy measures aimed at reducing regulatory barriers, fostering entrepreneurship, and encouraging innovation may be necessary to help businesses shake-off lingering effects of the pandemic. #cdnecon #economicgrowth #entrepreneurship #innovation The full report ⬇️: https://lnkd.in/gXbwNhFM

Global business insolvencies continue to trend higher, with a notable rise in insolvencies among major firms, increasing the potential for spillovers to suppliers and subcontractors:🚨 📈 2025 confirmed the upward trend Business insolvencies ended 2025 on an upside trajectory in most countries, despite already high levels. Final data confirm a +6% increase in global business insolvencies, in line with expectations. Western Europe (+6%) remained a key contributor, several Asian economies recorded double-digit increases (five out of nine), and most advanced economies now stand above pre-pandemic levels. ⏳ High levels likely to persist in 2026–2027 We expect insolvencies to remain elevated over the next two years. The global total should rise for a fifth consecutive year in 2026 (+3%), before a modest and uneven decline in 2027 (-1%). The continued risk of buyer non-payment and supplier insolvencies calls for close monitoring of critical counterparties and supply chains. 🏢 Large firms are not immune Importantly, insolvencies among large companies reached record levels in late 2025, with 147 cases in Q4 and 475 cases for the full year—around one every 18 hours. Western Europe stands out in insolvencies among firms with turnover above EUR 50mn, leading both the rebound and the global count (311 cases). At the same time, the largest individual insolvencies were recorded in the Americas and China, which together accounted for 17 of the top 20 cases globally. This reflects large firms’ exposure to global fragmentation, shifting trade patterns, geopolitical tensions, digital disruption, and ongoing sectoral transformations, with potential knock-on effects for suppliers and subcontractors. 🏭 Sectoral patterns reveal selective fragilities Services, construction, and retail account for 44% of large insolvencies globally, partly reflecting business demographics. In absolute terms, services (83 cases), retail (64), and construction (62) were most affected, particularly in Western Europe, North America, and Asia. In relative terms, however, several industrial sectors—especially in Europe—are showing higher increases and levels compared with historical standards, including chemicals, metals, machinery & equipment, automotive, computers & telecom, electronics, and textiles. #BusinessInsolvencies #CorporateRisk #CounterpartyRisk #CreditRisk# #Ludonomics #AllianzTrade #Allianz