Economic Trends in Mining

Africa’s Mining Future Will Be Driven by Data, Technology and Infrastructure Africa holds some of the world’s most significant mineral resources, yet much of its geological potential remains underexplored or commercially undeveloped. The estimated scale of mineral potential across selected African markets is significant: #DemocraticRepublicofCongo: approximately US$24 trillion #Angola: approximately US$600 billion #Zambia: approximately US$570 billion #Namibia: approximately US$540 billion #Kenya: approximately US$400 billion #Tanzania: approximately US$350 billion The data also points to a 28% increase in African mining projects since 2020, reflecting growing international interest in the continent’s mineral sector. The next phase of mining development will not depend only on traditional exploration. It will increasingly be supported by satellite imagery, remote sensing, artificial intelligence, geological data platforms and predictive mineral mapping. These technologies can help governments, investors and mining companies identify opportunities more efficiently, reduce early-stage exploration risk and make better investment decisions. However, mineral resources alone do not create economic value. To transform geological potential into bankable projects, African countries must strengthen geological data, transparent licensing, energy supply, transport infrastructure, long-term financing, technical expertise and regional trade corridors. The greatest opportunity is not simply exporting raw minerals. Africa can build complete value chains through: • Local processing and refining • Mining services and equipment supply • Logistics and infrastructure • Industrial manufacturing • Regional export platforms • Technology and geological data services Africa already has the resources. The next challenge is converting this potential into investable projects, local industries, employment and sustainable economic growth. Which should be Africa’s first priority: exploration technology, infrastructure or local processing? Market-potential figures are industry estimates and should be independently verified before being used for investment decisions. #Africa #Mining #AfricanMining #CriticalMinerals #NaturalResources #MiningInvestment #Infrastructure #ArtificialIntelligence #RemoteSensing #GeologicalData #MineralExploration #LocalProcessing #Industrialisation #InvestmentInAfrica #EconomicDevelopment

🌍 Africa has mastered extraction. The next challenge is mastering transformation. For decades, the continent exported raw minerals while the highest margins were captured elsewhere through refining, manufacturing, and industrial processing. But the future of African mining will not be defined by who digs the fastest. It will be defined by who controls more of the value chain. ⚒️➡️🏭 Consider the gap: 🔸 Copper concentrate ≠ copper cathodes 🔸 Lithium ore ≠ battery materials 🔸 Graphite concentrate ≠ battery-grade graphite 🔸 Gold doré ≠ refined bullion The resource stays the same. The economics change completely. 📈 The real opportunity sits between: Extraction ➝ Processing ➝ Manufacturing ➝ Global supply chains Africa is sitting on some of the world’s most strategic minerals for the energy transition: ⚡ Copper 🔋 Lithium 🪫 Graphite 🧪 Cobalt 🥇 Gold Yet too much value still leaves the continent before beneficiation begins. Value addition is not just about building refineries. It requires an ecosystem: ⚡ Stable power 💧 Water infrastructure 🚆 Logistics corridors 👷 Skilled technical talent 🏦 Industrial finance 📜 Predictable policy 🌐 Access to global buyers 🤝 Long-term strategic partnerships The countries and companies that solve these pieces together will shape the next industrial era of Africa. The conversation should no longer be: “How much mineral do we export?” It should be: “How much value do we retain?” 🌍 Africa’s mineral wealth is not only underground. Much of it exists in processing, technology, infrastructure, and industrial capability. That is where the next generation of growth will come from. #Africa #Mining #CriticalMinerals #EnergyTransition #BatteryMetals #Copper #Lithium #Graphite #Gold #Cobalt #Beneficiation #Industrialisation #Infrastructure #AfricaRising #MiningIndustry #ESG #ValueChain #Manufacturing #Trade #Investment

One of the most electric discussions I’ve ever been part of - the first debate in Investing in African Mining Indaba history. Over the course of 45 minutes, Ronak Gopaldas and I flipped the room from “Africa IS a winner from current geopolitical disruption” to our side, “Africa CAN be a winner.” Geopolitics doesn’t crown champions. Resource governance does. A big thank you to Rohitesh Dhawan for so expertly moderating four fireballs. A few of my key points (showing that geopolitics and geology alone aren't enough): -Exploration investment is the oxygen of the mining sector. If you don’t explore, you don’t discover. And if you don’t discover, you don’t produce. But exploration capital needs stability. In the Sahel, instability has taken a severe toll: between 2021 and 2024, exploration spending fell by 69% in Burkina Faso and 90% in Niger following coups and political upheaval, despite having good reserves. -Resource nationalism has consequences. In Zambia, average annual exploration spending fell 81% between 2016 and 2021 compared to the previous four-year period. The election of Edgar Lungu ushered in double taxation, the 16th royalty increase in a decade, and withheld VAT refunds - all of which undermined investor confidence. But policy reform can reverse course. After President Hichilema was elected and began rolling back these measures, exploration rebounded 89% year-on-year in 2022. While still well below pre-Lungu levels, the recovery was a clear signal that stability and predictability matter - not just geology. -Africa needs to pursue (not just discuss) regional integration. At the same time the African Continental Free Trade Agreement was being signed, dozens of trade barriers were going up (like Zambia's 2019 5% import levy on copper concentrate, which made it cost prohibitive to smelt DRC's copper in Zambia). Strengthening regional integration will be key to building local beneficiation on the continent. Every country cannot build processing facilities for every commodity. The economic case for smelting will require combining feedstock from multiple countries within the region - so addressing intra-regional trade barriers will be key. -There is significant social fragility across many African countries, with rising tensions driven by perceptions that mining is not delivering tangible benefits to local communities. Strengthening governance will be essential to ensure that mining tax revenue is reinvested in human capital, physical capital (infrastructure), and natural capital. Reducing social fragility is key to ensuring companies can operate projects without fear of disruption.

Africa isn’t waiting for a seat at the table. It’s building its own table. Boston Consulting Group (BCG)’s new report lays it out clearly Africa could sit at the centre of the global critical minerals race. Not on the sidelines. The centre. By 2040, global demand for minerals is expected to more than double. And Africa holds a disproportionate share of the world’s supply. The DRC alone produces over two-thirds of the world’s cobalt. South Africa dominates platinum and manganese. Zimbabwe and Namibia are fast becoming the new frontlines for lithium and rare earths. The problem is most of that value still leaves the continent as raw rock. The report shows Africa captures less than 5 percent of global exploration spend while exporting as much as 40 percent of its mineral value. Refining, processing, and manufacturing all happen elsewhere. The result is Africa does the digging, others do the dealing. But that narrative is starting to crack. Namibia’s policy reforms have drawn EU-backed investment into rare earths and lithium. Morocco is quietly transforming itself into a phosphate-based battery hub with both Europe and China in its orbit. The DRC and Zambia are linking cobalt and copper through the new Battery Minerals Corridor one of the most practical continental projects we’ve seen in decades. You can feel the mood shifting from dependency to design. BCG’s numbers drive it home. Every billion dollars invested in mining and processing can add 200 to 280 million dollars to GDP, create 3 to 6 thousand jobs, generate around a 100 million in new infrastructure, and deliver another 70 to a 100 million to governments in revenue. What’s exciting is the timing. Africa’s not stuck with legacy infrastructure or outdated industrial baggage. It can build clean, digital-first supply chains with ESG and traceability designed in from the start. No retrofitting, no greenwashing just new models that work. But this decade decides everything. Demand’s exploding, capital’s moving, and global players are already carving up offtakes. China still owns the midstream. The US and Europe are scrambling to rebuild theirs. Africa has the leverage, but it only counts if it acts fast, with scale and credibility. We’ve spent half a century talking about Africa’s potential. Now it’s about execution. The minerals are real. The opportunity is bigger. And for once, the leverage sits with Africa if it chooses to use it. For more of my takes on the resource industry sign up to my weekly newsletter www.kamoacap.com #Mining #Exploration #Resources #CapitalMarkets #Africa

Africa’s Mining Moment: Unlocking Growth & Energy Access Mining is Africa’s economic engine, driving industrialization, job creation, and infrastructure development. As the world transitions to clean energy, Africa—home to 30% of the world’s critical minerals—is central to the supply of lithium, cobalt, copper, and nickel for the green economy. This aligns with Mission 300, a World Bank and AfDB initiative to connect 300 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa to electricity by 2030. Achieving this goal requires investment in mineral value chains, infrastructure, and energy access. Key Challenges & Market Trends A World Bank Group study (IFC & MIGA) highlights major industry dynamics shaping Africa’s mining sector: 🔹 Energy Deficits – Power shortages hinder processing & industrialization. 🔹 Infrastructure Gaps – Transport & logistics increase costs & reduce competitiveness. 🔹 Geopolitical & Policy Uncertainty – Export bans & shifting regulations create volatility. 🔹 ESG & Investor Sentiment – Capital is now tied to sustainability & governance. 🔹 Limited Access to Capital – Junior miners & SMEs struggle to raise funding. 🔹 Climate Risks – Water scarcity & extreme weather disrupt mining operations. Africa’s Mining Evolution: From Extraction to Value Addition Governments are pivoting toward localizing value chains & maximizing benefits: ✅ Zambia-DRC EV Battery Deal – Strengthening regional collaboration. ✅ Export Bans on Raw Minerals – Encouraging local beneficiation & job creation. ✅ Investment in Power & Logistics – Unlocking growth through energy & transport networks. ✅ Formalizing Artisanal & Small-Scale Mining (ASM) – A massive untapped opportunity. ✅ ESG & Governance Integration – Stronger compliance is reshaping investor priorities. The Investment Case: Unlocking Africa’s Mining Potential $22billion in annual mining tax revenues, with: • $14billion from Southern Africa • $4billion from North Africa • $2billion from West Africa • $1.3billion from Central Africa 42 untapped key deposits constrained by power & infrastructure. • Africa holds 23 key minerals but captures just 10% of global exploration investment. Investor Priorities: What Draws Capital? 🔹 Strong Geological Resource Base – Proven reserves. 🔹 Operational Profitability – Competitive cost structures. 🔹 Security of Mining Licenses – Stable tenure policies. 🔹 Predictable Mineral Royalties – Fiscal consistency. 🔹 Robust Institutional Governance – Strengthened legal & regulatory frameworks. Africa’s Future is Now With Mission 300 accelerating energy access, Africa must act decisively to unlock its full mining potential. The future isn’t coming—it’s already here. Now is the time to mine Africa’s opportunities. #Mining #Africa #CriticalMinerals #Mission300 #EnergyTransition #MI25 Chanda Chime - Katongo Kalonde Cynthia Nyati Mutuna Investing in African Mining Indaba Boubacar Bocoum Demetrios Papathanasiou Nathan Belete Robert Schlotterer

🔋 Africa’s Critical Minerals Boom: Opportunity or Missed Moment? Africa is at the center of a global rush for critical minerals, driven by rising demand for clean energy technologies and electric vehicles. With vast reserves of cobalt, lithium, graphite, manganese, and other key resources, the continent is poised to become a strategic player in the global energy transition. 🌍 Key Mineral Assets ✅ Cobalt – Over 50% of the world’s reserves lie in the Democratic Republic of Congo. ✅ Lithium – Significant deposits in Zimbabwe, Namibia, Mali, and Ghana. ✅ Graphite – Major production in Mozambique and Madagascar, essential for battery tech. ✅ Manganese – Vital for steel and battery components, with large reserves in South Africa, Gabon, and Ghana. ✅ Other Minerals – Africa also holds substantial deposits of copper, platinum, tantalum, and bauxite. ⚡ Rising Global Demand 🔺 Demand for these minerals is expected to triple by 2040 as the world shifts toward EVs, solar, wind, and battery storage technologies. 🔺 Africa’s position as a supplier to this green revolution makes it central to the future of energy security. 🚀 Opportunities ✅ Economic Growth – The boom could unlock unprecedented industrial and economic development. ✅ Value Addition – Beneficiating minerals locally could create jobs, increase revenue, and reduce dependence on raw exports. ✅ Strategic Influence – Africa can negotiate better trade terms and partnerships as a key supplier. ⚠️ Challenges to Watch ⛔ Resource Curse Risk – Without proper planning, mineral wealth may deepen inequality and fuel corruption. ⛔ Weak Infrastructure – Poor roads, railways, and ports threaten to slow exports and reduce competitiveness. ⛔ Environmental Impact – Unchecked mining could lead to deforestation, water pollution, and displacement. 🔑 What Must Be Done ✅ Good Governance – Transparency, accountability, and anti-corruption frameworks are non-negotiable. ✅ Equitable Development – Policies must ensure communities benefit and that revenues fund public services. ✅ Strategic Partnerships – Africa should engage tech partners and investors who bring value, not just extraction. ✅ AfCFTA Advantage – Intra-African trade and harmonized regulations can strengthen regional mineral value chains. ✅ Unified Continental Strategy – A shared approach will prevent exploitation and amplify Africa’s global bargaining power. ⏳ The clock is ticking. Will Africa rise with the mineral boom—or repeat the mistakes of the past? The future is beneath our feet. Now we must build the systems to move it—fairly, sustainably, and strategically. AfricaRising #CriticalMinerals #EnergyTransition #Mining #EVs #SupplyChainAfrica #Lithium #Cobalt #Graphite #NaturalResources #AfCFTA #IndustrialPolicy #SustainableDevelopment

Sometime last year, I had the honour of contributing to the development of an important policy brief on adding value to Africa’s Critical Raw Materials (CRMs) through regional collaboration. The work speaks directly to the urgent questions around Africa’s role in the rapidly evolving global landscape of critical minerals, green industrialization, and geopolitical mining. As the global energy transition accelerates, the demand for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, manganese, platinum group metals, and rare earths continues to surge. Many of these strategic minerals are abundantly found across the African continent. Yet historically, Africa has largely remained a supplier of raw materials rather than a driver of value creation. This reality must fundamentally change. The policy brief reinforces a critical message: Africa must move decisively toward value addition, regional collaboration, and strategic control of its critical mineral resources. In this new era of geopolitical mining, minerals are no longer simply commodities—they are instruments of economic power, industrial policy, and global diplomacy. Several reflections emerge from this work: 🔹 Strategic Nationalism is essential. African states must design mineral governance frameworks that prioritize long-term national and continental interests, ensuring that mineral wealth translates into industrial development and technological capability. 🔹 Positive Resource Nationalism matters. This is not about isolation or shutting out investment. Rather, it is about ensuring that Africa’s resources drive domestic beneficiation, industrialization, and sustainable economic transformation. 🔹 Critical Minerals Diplomacy must become central to African foreign policy. African governments must engage strategically with global partners while safeguarding mineral sovereignty, negotiating fairer partnerships, and advancing Africa’s developmental priorities. 🔹 Regional collaboration is the pathway to scale. No single African country can build the entire critical minerals value chain alone. Through coordinated policies, regional industrial hubs, and integrated infrastructure, Africa can collectively move up the value chain. 🔹 African Agency is non-negotiable. Africa cannot remain a passive arena where global powers compete for access to strategic minerals. The continent must assert its voice, define the rules of engagement, and negotiate from a position of strength. 🔹 No to resource mercantilism. The era where Africa exports raw minerals while importing finished technologies must come to an end. Our minerals must anchor local value chains, green industrialization, and inclusive development. Ultimately, Africa’s minerals are not cursed. #CriticalMinerals #StrategicNationalism #ResourceNationalism #CriticalMineralsDiplomacy #GeopoliticalMining #AfricanAgency #ResourceSovereignty #MineralGovernance #GreenIndustrialization #ValueAddition #Beneficiation #AfricaFirst

Africa is shaping tomorrow’s critical minerals value chains Africa’s role in global battery, EV, defense, and renewable energy supply chains is no longer just about extraction. Governments are using targeted policy tools to support domestic industrialization while remaining open to collaboration and investment. Our January 2026 Africa Critical Minerals Policy Brief highlights five important shifts:     DRC – Cobalt: Export quotas now regulate volumes and stabilize supply, giving the government leverage to encourage domestic processing — though partnerships are not legally mandated.    Zimbabwe – Lithium: Bans on lithium ore exports and planned bans on concentrates are driving battery-grade refining and attracting industrial FDI.     Ghana – Green Minerals: Export restrictions and mandatory beneficiation are designed to build domestic processing capacity across lithium, bauxite, and other green metals.     Namibia – Critical Minerals: Raw mineral exports require ministerial approval, making the government a gatekeeper of downstream value creation.     Pan-African Trend: Across multiple countries, local-value policies are emerging in parallel — not as a single coordinated bloc, but as a clear shift toward industrializing mineral wealth. These policies are not about coercion. They reflect development priorities, including jobs, industrial capacity, and more resilient global supply chains, which are built through partnerships, co-investment, and aligned incentives. Africa is no longer just a supplier of minerals. It is shaping the platforms on which future value chains will be built. #Africa #CriticalMinerals #ValueChains #BatteryIndustry #EVs #IndustrialPolicy #Mining #StrategicInvestment #SustainableDevelopment

Africa holds the world’s largest undeveloped reserves of critical minerals. But unless it transitions from a “raw material supplier” to a “processing partner,” resource wealth will only deepen dependency. Africa’s critical minerals potential is beyond doubt. The DRC supplies 70% of global cobalt, Guinea holds the world’s largest bauxite reserves, and Zimbabwe and Mali are emerging as significant lithium producers. Yet Africa’s share of global processing capacity is negligible. The vast majority of African minerals are still exported as raw ores or concentrates, then processed into high-value materials in other countries, primarily China. But the winds are shifting: • Regional integration: African ministers and institutions are gathering to discuss how to position the critical minerals sector as a key driver of structural transformation. • New financing models: Export credit agencies and development finance institutions are being incorporated into the core structure of financing arrangements. Offtake agreements are increasingly directed toward “trusted” supply chains, where buyers are willing to pay premiums for traceability and resilience. For sovereign states, this means: resilience is no longer just about “having ore”, but about “having processing capacity.” A diversified global supply chain that does not depend on a single external processing source is more secure for every participant. For Africa, this means a historic opportunity to transition from “raw material export” to “value creation”. And this is a critical piece of global supply chain resilience. #Africa #CriticalMinerals #ResourceSovereignty #SupplyChainResilience

Can Africa ride its critical minerals wave to an economic boom? Africa can absolutely ride the critical minerals wave to an economic boom, and there is mounting data to support this view. Africa holds about 30% of the world’s critical mineral reserves, including cobalt, lithium, nickel, graphite, and rare-earth elements, minerals crucial to the global energy transition and digital technology industries. The International Energy Agency forecasts demand for these minerals to soar: lithium demand will grow fivefold by 2040, while graphite and nickel will at least double, and cobalt and rare earths by 50–60%. This structural global shift positions Africa not only as a vital supply hub but as a central stage for industrial, technological, and economic transformation if value chains are built within the continent. Governments are stepping up with sweeping policy reforms to capture more value locally. Zimbabwe, for example, banned raw lithium exports and is commissioning new lithium sulphate processing plants, with Chinese companies investing over $400 million and local revenues set to more than double. Across West and Southern Africa, “resource nationalism” is rising; local content laws, beneficiation mandates, fiscal incentives, tax breaks, and equity participation are now required for miners, with similar moves being seen in South Africa and Zambia. Regional coordination is also gathering pace, supported by initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area and shared infrastructure projects, all aimed at integrating mining with refining, manufacturing, and innovation hubs. This is already leading to more domestic job creation, tech transfer, and a surge in industrial investment across the sector. Africa’s push for more grants than loans for energy financing, the renegotiation of mining contracts to mandate domestic value addition, and increased leadership in global minerals diplomacy are key trends. Rather than remain mere exporters of raw commodities, African countries are positioning themselves as indispensable, higher-value players in the global clean energy revolution. The critical minerals boom, if paired with bold reforms and strategic investment in infrastructure, can drive a continent-wide economic renaissance and ensure Africa captures genuine, sustainable benefits from its natural wealth. Read the full article below: https://lnkd.in/g5RDAkpy #CriticalMinerals #AfricanMining #GreenTransition #ValueAddition #AfricaRising #MineralBeneficiation #LocalContent #SustainableDevelopment #MineralsForGrowth #EnergyTransition #Africa2030 #ZimbabweLithium