Country-by-Country Energy Market Analysis

The report analyzes electricity market designs in Southeast Asia, focusing on Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines, highlighting barriers and opportunities for renewable energy (RE) growth. Electricity Generation Mix (2022) • Indonesia: Coal contributes 67%, dispatchable renewables 13%, and VREs less than 0.2%. • Thailand: Gas dominates with 53%, dispatchable renewables provide 10%, and VREs less than 4%. • Vietnam: Coal accounts for 45%, renewables 44% (VREs 12%). • Philippines: Coal leads at 58%, dispatchable renewables 17%, and VREs 3%. Renewable Energy Progress (2023) • Vietnam leads with a 13% VRE share. Other ASEAN nations have less than 5%. • To achieve net-zero goals, the region must increase VRE shares to 25% of electricity generation by 2030. Electricity Tariffs (2024) • Philippines: 22 US cents/kWh (highest among the focus countries). • Thailand: 14 US cents/kWh. • Vietnam: 8 US cents/kWh. • Indonesia: 9 US cents/kWh (heavily subsidized). Reserve Margins and Overcapacity • Indonesia (Java-Bali system): 50% reserve margin. • Thailand: 40%. • Vietnam (2025 projection): 25% (73% with VREs). • Philippines: 35%-82% across Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. Challenges in VRE Deployment 1. Tender Issues: • Indonesia and Thailand conduct infrequent, small-scale tenders (e.g., <90 MW in Thailand). • Philippines’ GEA-2 auction in 2023 was undersubscribed due to price caps and grid constraints. 2. Fossil Fuel Dominance: • Indonesia plans to add 14 GW of coal capacity by 2030; Vietnam plans 4 GW. • Coal assets receive favorable terms, such as capacity payments (40% of PPA tariff in Indonesia, 16% in Thailand). 3. Grid Limitations: • Vietnam’s grid is unable to transmit southern RE surplus to the north. • Grid delays in the Philippines prevent RE projects from coming online. 4. Market Structure: Single-buyer systems in Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam limit competition and VRE integration. Recommendations 1. Increase VRE Deployment: • Scale up tender volumes and frequencies with transparent processes. • Address risk imbalances in Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) by introducing price stability and purchase guarantees. 2. Enhance Grid Infrastructure: • Align grid expansion plans with RE growth. • Invest in storage solutions for solar and wind. 3. Phase Out Carbon-Intensive Assets: • Halt new coal investments. • Repurpose and retire inefficient fossil fuel assets. 4. Reform Electricity Tariffs: Shift towards cost-reflective tariffs to ensure financial sustainability while protecting vulnerable consumers. 5. System Flexibility: • Reform contracts for fossil fuel plants to enhance operational flexibility. • Introduce metrics like ramping capability and frequency control in PPAs. Economic Benefits • Potential Savings: Transitioning to RE can lower electricity costs by reducing fossil fuel dependency. • Affordability: Lower planning reserve margins and optimized generation mixes will reduce system costs, benefiting consumers.

🔎A snapshot of cross-border power trading in Europe in 2023 vs 2022, as well as the ICIS Power Foresight forecast for 2024. Positive values denote net exports; negative net imports. Some thoughts on key developments: 🔹France switched from being a net importer in 2022 back to a net export position in 2023. This was mainly driven by the 41TWh increase in nuclear output, though the 8TWh increase in hydro generation also contributed. Continued recovery in nuclear output is expected in 2024 (+11TWh compared to 2023), which is forecast to help boost exports further. 🔹As a consequence of the changed situation in France, GB switched the other way, moving back to net import status having been in the unusual situation of net exporting in 2022 to cover for the lost French nuclear output. The situation is forecast to remain stable in 2024, with GB continuing as a significant net importer. 🔹Germany also saw a switch in 2023, moving to a net import status. Again, the improved nuclear situation in France was partly responsible for the change. However, the country's own nuclear phase-out also contributed to Germany becoming a net importer. Looking forward, the German import position is forecast to grow substantially in 2024 as a result of coal and lignite closures due to take place this year. 🔹Italy continued its position as the largest net importer in Europe in 2023. Ongoing permitting issues are creating challenges with renewable build-out, while the country’s heavy reliance on gas-fired plants puts it at a relative price disadvantage to neighbouring markets at a time of high gas prices. ICIS forecasts Italian net imports to be slightly higher in 2024. 🔹Spain saw lower net exports in 2023 due to the improved French nuclear situation and lower gas prices meaning that the ‘Iberian Exception’ gas price cap did not have an impact for most of the year on incentivising exports. The rapid expansion of solar capacity in Spain is forecast to lead to increasing exports in 2024. [Sources: Energy Charts, ICIS Power Foresight]

Energy market trends and challenges / source International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) 🏦Investment : To align with 1.5°C climate goals, the EU must triple its annual energy transition investment to over €1.2 trillion/year, up from the current €406 billion/year. This translates to 2.6% of GDP versus the current 1.4% . 💡Electrification Drive: Electricity must account for 52% of final energy consumption by 2050 (up from 23% today), with 90% of that electricity coming from renewable sources . ⚡️Grid Needs: Europe must invest €600 billion in grid expansion and digitalization by 2030 to accommodate renewables and maintain reliability . 💧Hydrogen Uptake: The EU targets 20 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen use by 2030, but actual production within Europe is projected to meet only 6 million tonnes, with the rest needing to be imported . 🔧 Structural & Policy challenges across Europe •Permitting Delays: Over 80% of renewable energy projects face delays due to bureaucratic barriers and insufficient digitalization of permitting systems . •Workforce Shortage: The energy transition could create 3.5 million new jobs, but 1 million skilled positions may remain unfilled without proper training programs . •Market Design Gaps: Current electricity markets are not designed for zero-marginal-cost renewables, leading to price volatility and underinvestment in flexibility . ⸻ 🇩🇪 #Germany: Ambitious But Facing Bottlenecks •Renewable Growth Target: Germany aims to source 80% of electricity from renewables by 2030, up from 52% in 2022 . •Offshore Wind Plans: The government targets 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030 (compared to 8 GW in 2023), requiring €180 billion in new infrastructure investment . •Grid Congestion Crisis: Germany leads Europe in curtailments, losing 6.5 TWh of renewable electricity in 2022 due to transmission bottlenecks . ⸻ 🇬🇷 #Greece: Emerging energy hub with structural challenges •RES Expansion: Greece has surpassed 10 GW of installed renewables (excluding hydro), meeting 50% of electricity demand with renewables in 2023 . •Interconnection needs: Grid bottlenecks in the islands and limited interconnections with the Balkans hinder Greece’s export potential, despite abundant solar and wind resources . •Energy storage push: The national plan includes 3 GW of energy storage by 2030, supported by €1 billion in Recovery and Resilience funds . ⸻ 🌍 Other key European country highlights #Spain: Ranked second in the EU for new solar capacity in 2023, reaching 19 GW, with a target of 76 GW by 2030 . #France: Lags in renewable deployment with only 27% RES share in electricity, mainly due to nuclear dominance and slow permitting for wind projects . #Poland: Saw a 70% increase in solar capacity between 2022 and 2023, now at 14 GW, but still highly dependent on coal . #Italy: Has committed to over 80 GW of new RES capacity by 2030 but faces significant permitting delays .

🌍 Africa’s Energy Pulse: 8 Countries to Watch Across the continent, nations are redefining how energy powers their growth, development, and innovation. Here’s a snapshot of the Countries - where WTS Energy operates and/or expanding to - shaping Africa’s energy future: ⚡ Gabon – Once reliant on oil, Gabon is diversifying. Gas, hydropower, and renewables are at the center of efforts to extend access and ensure long-term energy security. 🔥 Nigeria – Africa’s top oil producer, yet over 85M people still lack reliable electricity. The dual focus: gas as a transition fuel + massive private investment in solar mini-grids. 🌱 Namibia – The rising star. Offshore oil discoveries are making headlines, but green hydrogen projects could transform Namibia into a renewable energy exporter on the global stage. 💡 Kenya – An African leader in clean energy, with 80% of power already from geothermal, wind, and hydro. Next: electrifying transport and expanding grid access. 🌋 Rwanda – Small but agile. Innovative off-grid solar and smart financing models are driving some of the fastest electrification gains on the continent. 🏭 Uganda – Preparing for its first major oil production from Lake Albert. The challenge: balancing fossil-fuel ambitions with scaling hydropower and solar. 🌊 Cameroon – Rich in oil and gas, but the bigger play is regional integration—leveraging pipelines, hydropower, and cross-border trade to strengthen Central Africa’s energy network. ⛽ Mozambique – Home to some of the world’s largest offshore gas reserves. Despite security hurdles, LNG projects are moving ahead, with potential to supply Africa, Europe, and Asia. 🔑 The Big Picture: Africa’s energy markets are diverse and dynamic. From Kenya’s renewables to Namibia’s green hydrogen to Mozambique’s LNG, the balance between harnessing natural resources and pioneering a just transition is where the real opportunity lies. #Energy #Africa #Transition #Innovation #Investment #LNG #Oil #Gas #Solar #Wind #Nuclear #Hydro #Geothermal

I visualized how Central Asia generates electricity ⚡ (2024) Each country tells a different energy story: 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan — 75% of electricity comes from coal. However, renewables already make up 15%, including wind, solar, and hydro. 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan — 85% natural gas–based generation, with renewables reaching 8%, mostly hydro and solar. 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan — 78% hydroelectric. The country’s mountainous terrain (over 90% of its land) makes large-scale hydropower its natural strength. 🇹🇯 Tajikistan — 96% hydro-based, also due to its mountainous geography. 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan — a staggering 98% of electricity comes from natural gas, leveraging its vast domestic reserves. 📌 While Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are advancing in solar and wind, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely on hydropower. 📌 Turkmenistan remains the most gas-reliant, with minimal diversification. This snapshot reveals not just energy choices — but geography, resources, and national priorities. 📊 Source: Central Asian Energy Statistics, 2024 🧠 Designed by me 🙂 #CentralAsia #EnergyTransition #ElectricityGeneration #Kazakhstan #Uzbekistan #Kyrgyzstan #Tajikistan #Turkmenistan #EnergyMix #NaturalGas #Hydropower #SolarPower #WindEnergy #FossilFuels #ClimatePolicy #MountainCountries #DataVisualization #Infographic #ReadyToRelocate #HireDataTalent