How Lng is Transforming Energy Markets

American #LNG has completely transformed the global energy market. Ten years ago, U.S. LNG exports were effectively zero. Export facilities were being built, and as the world's largest #naturalgas producer, we certainly had the potential to be a major global supplier. But could anyone have predicted we would go from nothing to the world's largest exporter — in under a decade? The geopolitical impacts from this are enormous. The story of American LNG rescuing Europe in the wake of Russia's aggression against Ukraine has been told a million times. But it's still incredible. Within a few months of the invasion, the United States became the largest LNG supplier to Europe. U.S. LNG exports to Europe increased by nearly 120% from 2021 to 2022. It was energy diplomacy in action. Now try to imagine what that story would have been had the "ban fracking now" crowd been successful in eliminating America's strategic resource. Unsurprisingly, it was that same campaign that secured the infamous LNG "pause" last year. A new study makes the story even more interesting. For months there has been speculation that Europe may increase purchases of Russian gas as the continent struggles with deindustrialization and high energy prices. But research from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies concluded that Russian gas is unlikely to see a rebound of demand in Europe. A big reason? the "wave of new LNG supply" headed for the continent in the coming years. Many of those molecules will be stamped "Made in America." Skeptics of U.S. LNG often point to the European market, noting that pipeline supplies from places like Norway and Russia are considerably cheaper than importing LNG. But this misses the bigger picture. By expanding the global supply of LNG, U.S. producers are putting downward pressure on prices, giving buyers all around the world more optionality. Even if some of those U.S. cargoes don't physically land in Europe, the impact is still felt. It's a lot easier to negotiate prices with a supplier when you have alternatives. Twenty years ago, Time Magazine ran the headline, "The U.S. Is Running Out of Energy." The story focused on dwindling natural gas supplies and an increased reliance on imports. Thanks to the shale revolution, it didn't quite work out that way — and the world is a fundamentally different place as a result.

Remember when natural gas was supposed to be the "bridge fuel" that would gradually phase out? Well, Canadian producers just got a wake-up call that might flip that timeline. Deloitte's year-end report dropped some numbers that should have every clean energy professional taking notes. Canadian natural gas prices are projected to nearly double in 2025—jumping from the rock-bottom levels we saw throughout 2024 to around $2.15 per Alberta benchmark pricing. The catalyst? LNG Canada's export terminal comes online mid-2025. For the first time, Canada can export liquefied natural gas directly from its west coast. That fundamentally changes supply-demand dynamics across North America. What was an oversupplied, price-depressed market suddenly has a new outlet to global buyers willing to pay premium rates. Here's what this means for our sector: Corporate procurement teams are already recalculating their energy strategies. When natural gas price volatility increases, renewable power purchase agreements start looking like stability, not just sustainability. We're seeing this pattern play out in real-time across industrial customers—particularly in energy-intensive manufacturing and data centers. The timing couldn't be more strategic. Just as AI-driven electricity demand surges, traditional power generation costs are becoming less predictable. Energy security conversations are shifting from "How much renewable can we handle?" to "how fast can we scale renewable baseload alternatives?" But there's a complexity here that's worth acknowledging. Higher natural gas prices don't automatically equal renewable wins. They also mean higher peak power costs, potentially challenging grid operators managing intermittency. Clean energy companies are already positioning around storage solutions and demand response technologies that can capitalize on this price volatility. Regional nuance matters too. Western Canada has been producing record natural gas volumes while prices sat at historic lows. Now those same producers have an economic incentive to maintain high output levels—but for export markets, not domestic supply. That creates interesting arbitrage opportunities for renewable developers who understand regional grid dynamics. Looking ahead, this price shift accelerates conversations we've been having about energy independence. Companies that locked in renewable contracts over the past two years are going to look prescient. Those still weighing options just got a compelling data point about price risk in traditional energy portfolios. The question isn't whether this drives more renewable adoption—it's how quickly we can scale infrastructure to meet demand that's about to get more urgent. And for those working across the US-Canada energy corridor, how do you see this LNG export capacity affecting cross-border renewable project development?

In Texas natural gas markets, infrastructure—not supply—is increasingly setting the margin. Recent pipeline expansions supporting LNG exports, cross-border flows to Mexico, and improved Permian Basin connectivity are reshaping how and where prices clear. Capacity additions underway are large relative to current production and materially improve the integration of West Texas with Gulf Coast export facilities, major metropolitan areas, and growing industrial demand. As a result, local congestion has eased, intrastate prices have converged, and marginal price adjustment has increasingly occurred at Henry Hub. Key takeaways: • Infrastructure scale and alignment now play a central role in price formation. • Expanded egress has reduced localized dislocations while shifting adjustment toward benchmark pricing. • More than 22 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of natural gas pipeline capacity is under construction in Texas—material relative to current production and transformative for connectivity across export, power, and industrial markets. • At that scale, incremental supply increasingly clears through benchmark prices rather than congestion, reallocating risk from short-term volatility toward utilization, system fit, and timing. Why this matters: For consumers and industry, this shift means fewer localized price spikes, more stable pricing tied to national benchmarks, and outcomes increasingly driven by infrastructure choices rather than weather-driven congestion. As congestion risk fades, commercial risk shifts—from basis volatility to utilization risk and system alignment. In an increasingly export- and industry-driven market, capital discipline hinges less on throughput growth and more on how deliberately optionality—the ability to redirect supply across domestic use, LNG exports, and pipeline exports to Mexico—is embedded into the system. #EnergyMarkets #NaturalGas #LNG #EnergyInfrastructure #IndustrialDemand #TexasEnergy

a global gas market: despite all the volatility, the correlation between TTF and JKM remained at near record levels in the first half of 2025, indicating that regional markets are increasingly interconnected and interdependent. the TTF-JKM correlation strengthened from an average of around 0.5 between 2012-2016 to just over 0.9 since 2020, reflecting the profound structural changes in the global gas market since 2016: (1) LNG trading rose by a staggering 70% since 2016, largely driven by fast-growing Asian markets, and since 2021//22 by Europe's diversification needs from Russian gas; (2) the US became the world's largest LNG exporter, accounting today for 25% of global LNG supply, underpinned by destination-flexible, Henry Hub-indexed contracts; (3) the share of spot LNG grew from 18% to near 30%, driven by sellers' short-term optimisation strategies and buyers' growing flexibility needs; (4) the rise of portfolio players: the big 3 (Shell, TotalEnergies and BP) today account for around 30% of global LNG trade, further enhancing the flexibility and liquidity of the market; (5) price benchmarks: TTF evolved into a fully fledged hedging venue for both European and global market players, while JKM's recognition is well-reflected by its growing use in long-term LNG contracts. the next LNG mega-wave (near 300 bcm/y by 2030) is expected to reinforce these structural changes and transform more profoundly the global gas market. the US is set to reinforce its dominant position, increasing further the share of destination-flexible LNG contracts. spot trading is expected to further increase, with now both traditional suppliers (eg QatarEnergy) and traditional buyers (eg China's major) actively entering the trading space. and the role of TTF/JKM/HH will further increase, both for risk management purposes and and as price indices used in long-term LNG contracts. what is your view? how will the global gas market transform in the coming years? are we moving towards more flexibility and liquidity? #gas #LNG #TTF #JKM #HH

The US natural gas market is entering a structurally different era - and I don’t think the industry is fully pricing that in. As Golden Pass feed gas is now touching 0.3 BCfd (we are likely days, at most a few weeks away from a formal startup announcement), we will inevitably see a record-high total US LNG daily average this month - above 18.7 BCfd. LNG exports are fundamentally testing the assumption of unlimited US shale elasticity in a way domestic demand never did. Unlike power generation or industrial consumption, LNG export demand does not flex with the domestic price signal — it is locked in by long-term contracts and global arbitrage. Every new liquefaction train that comes online adds a layer of baseload demand that simply does not respond to Henry Hub the way a utility does. And this is even before we throw data centers into the equation. The result: the buffer that kept US gas cheap is getting thinner. The US is not necessarily heading toward European or Asian price levels - the resource base is too large for that. But the era of structurally low prices may be behind us. Jai Singh and I explored exactly this in the latest episode of Rystad Energy's Let's Talk Energy podcast. Worth a listen if you follow gas markets. 🎙️ Link in comments #NaturalGas #LNG #EnergyMarkets #RystadEnergy #LetsTalkEnergy

LNG Colleagues: My last 3 posts were about the LNG Market. Part 4 below are my views on Global LNG Market development. LNG’s Next Growth Wave (2026–2035): In my personal opinion. The next decade of LNG growth will be decided by execution capability in new and emerging LNG import markets. We are entering a phase where LNG demand growth shifts to frontier and emerging systems — power-constrained, oil-dependent, and politically sensitive. Between 2026–2035, new LNG demand will mostly be unlocked primarily in: • MENA (power reliability + domestic gas shortfalls) • Africa (oil displacement, coal repowering + grid stabilisation) • South & Southeast Asia (urbanisation, heatwaves, data loads) The demand is present in these markets. The right commerical and bankable structures need to be established. Establishing new LNG import markets is actually enabling Infrastructure first. The commodity comes second. Successful projects will be. ✔️ FSRU-first (speed beats perfection) ✔️ Lock in anchor demand (≥70%) before steel is ordered ✔️ Tie LNG directly to gas-to-power or industrial offtake ✔️ Secure payment mechanisms ✔️ Medium and Long term contracts ✔️ Strong payment security (LCs, escrows, sovereign wraps) ✔️ Flexibility ✔️ Clear LNG price pass-through to end users Bankababilitiy will be key. Bankable LNG projects show: ✔️ Contracted revenue floors (capacity or availability payments) ✔️ FX and inflation protection ✔️ Clear risk allocation (volume ≠ asset risk) ✔️ Political durability beyond one administration ✔️ A credible transition narrative (oil displacement, grid stability) LNG’s next growth phase will be about. • Structuring credit in weak systems • Delivering power reliability under extreme weather • Replacing oil, providing intermittent energy for renewables whilst the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow. Between now and 2035, LNG will expand into new markets where projects which can align developers, sellers, and capital around risk / reality will reach FID, COD, and long-term value. #LNG #EnergySecurity #GlobalGas #Infrastructure #EnergyTransition #EmergingMarkets #PowerMarkets

A wave of new LNG production (the biggest yet) will transform the gas market 🚢⚠️ LNG Canada just exported its first shipment of LNG. An even larger plant in Texas — Golden Pass — told US regulators that, after delays, it expects to begin startup activities in October This is just the beginning. A series of roughly two dozen new projects from North America to the Middle East is expected to lift export capacity more than 40% by 2030, likely outstripping growth in demand and transforming the market For comparison, capacity grew just 8% between 2020 and 2024. The tidal wave isn’t exactly a shock to the market. Many of these new projects were approved even before the pandemic But supply-chain bottlenecks and high costs repeatedly pushed back start dates. The loss of Russian gas to Europe after the invasion of Ukraine further tightened the market, resulting in consistently higher prices that have raised questions about demand from emerging nations Now, some Asian buyers are delaying long-term deals precisely because they can see a looming production surge ahead — and better terms The catch is that rock-bottom LNG prices — good for nascent gas consumers, if not for the clean-energy transition — aren’t guaranteed. One key unknown as the market heads into a glut is just how quickly big producers can ramp up output. The US, the world’s top exporter, is forecast to double shipments by 2030, while Qatar wants to lift production 85% There’s also the question of Russia’s continued, if troubled, effort to expand LNG exports. With much of its pipeline infrastructure facing Europe, the country has had to look to other means of exporting its gas eastward That plan may depend on a more lenient position from Washington, but Moscow has already been trying to restart shipments from a project effectively frozen by US sanctions. It could put even more LNG on the water As supply is added, the mood will almost inevitably shift. After years of seller dominance, global gas traders should prepare for a buyers’ market https://lnkd.in/gTFNS-iM

The biggest influx of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, supply is coming online and it will transform the global market, bringing about wide and enduring effects, according to RBC Capital Markets. “A wave of new LNG supply —the biggest yet— is set to reshape the global market in the coming years, with broader implications than prior growth given increasing inter-linkages between regional gas markets following the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” analysts from the investment bank wrote in a note. The supply injection is likely to thrust the market into an extended period of oversupply by the end of 2026, which will remain until 2030, with prices possibly moving below double digits, analysts such as RBC’s Adnan Dhanani have projected. Futures for the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub, a European benchmark for natural gas transactions, were trading at $12.78 per million metric British thermal unit on Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Throughout the year, a growing chorus of analysts have warned that tepid demand growth coupled with looming waves of export capacity could lead to a massively oversupplied market. As a stream of planned infrastructure continues to flood the market, it’s unclear if demand will increase to absorb each wave. Oversupply and depressed prices underscore the bearish sentiments in the LNG sector, said Rystad Energy senior analyst Masanori Odaka (Masa O.). Suppliers are now increasingly prioritizing LNG used for shipping utilization over arbitrage opportunities, i.e. profit margins. Commodity arbitrage involves the simultaneous or sequential buying and selling of commodities across different markets to profit from the price difference. Global LNG trade has doubled in the last decade, growing from around 240 metric tons in 2014 to more than 400 metric tons last year, largely caused by the disruption of Russian pipeline gas to Europe, according to RBC Capital. Some had perceived the geopolitical risk as an opportunity in the market. The investment bank projected that global liquefaction capacity, the total amount of LNG that can be produced annually, will grow by around 50% by the end of the decade. The U.S. and Qatar will hold onto their position as the world’s biggest suppliers, with a combined market share of almost 50% in 2030, RBC added. There are other looming challenges to the LNG sector that could affect global markets. The 2024-25 Northern Hemisphere winter is in sight and existing contracts of Russian gas deliveries to Europe through Ukraine are set to expire at the end of 2024, the International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out. #lng #naturalgas #unleashuslng #blueduck ExxonMobil #exports EQT Corporation #appalachia Read more: https://lnkd.in/esS88jmJ

Every week I see headlines warning of an “oversupply” in LNG. More projects, more capacity, softer prices. But here’s the reality: once a country enters the LNG ecosystem, it’s not a short-term trade — it’s a system investment. ⚡ Import terminals, regas plants, pipelines. ⚡ Gas turbines powering 25–40 years of electricity. ⚡ Industrial retooling in fertilizer, steel, cement, and petrochemicals. ⚡ Urban gas grids tying households into long-term supply. Add to that the long-term contracts buyers are signing today — 15 to 20 years, locking in volumes into the 2040s — and it’s clear: LNG demand isn’t cyclical. It’s structural. 🌍 From Europe’s FSRUs to South & Southeast Asia’s new terminals to Africa’s emerging buyers, LNG is becoming the backbone of energy security. That’s why I don’t buy into the “glut” narrative. Supply may be rising, but so is demand — and once the system is built, there’s no turning back. 👉 LNG is different. It doesn’t just meet demand. It creates demand. #LNG #EnergySecurity #NaturalGas #GlobalMarkets https://lnkd.in/dxiY8kZq

LNG freight rates just hit an 8-month high. Tankers are rerouting. And tensions near the Strait of Hormuz are tightening the pressure on global energy flows, regardless of the outcome. These developments add weight to a story that was already accelerating. U.S. LNG export capacity is expected to increase from 12 to 27 Bcf/d by 2028 and could reach 40 Bcf/d by the end of the decade. Today’s post breaks down what’s driving that growth: the next wave of coal-to-gas conversions, soaring demand from Europe and Asia, and a grid that needs flexible, reliable fuel alongside long-range nuclear buildouts. Germany now gets 86% of its LNG from the U.S. China leads global imports. In the U.S., natural gas already generates 43% of electricity, with further conversions anticipated. This represents a structural shift, and the next phase is progressing rapidly. #LNG #NaturalGas #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics