How Tariffs Affect Global Energy Markets

This edition delivers an urgent and insightful look into how recently imposed global tariffs are influencing the oil and gas sector. With volatility rising in crude oil markets, this report examines the ripple effects on trade, pricing, international competition, and long-term strategic planning. Backed by top-tier sources such as Reuters, Business Insider, and the Journal of Petroleum Technology, this article breaks down: 📉 The immediate market response to new U.S. tariffs 🛢️ How exemptions for oil products still create strategic vulnerabilities 🌍 Global shifts in trade flow, alliances, and energy sourcing ⚠️ Supply chain stressors from tariffs on industrial inputs (like steel) 🔁 Future-facing implications for energy security and diversification It concludes with actionable foresight for stakeholders—from brokers and traders to policymakers and buyers—on how to navigate today’s uncertainty with agility and compliance. 💡 Why This Edition Matters: Explains the real-world impacts of trade policy on energy pricing and logistics Sheds light on global economic power plays and retaliation strategies Helps professionals in oil and gas prepare for long-term shifts in market dynamics

How will the trade war affect the world’s sustainable energy transition? We just celebrated a major milestone in the green energy transition: Clean energy now generates over 40% of the world's electricity, as per a new report from think tank Ember. A decade ago, that figure was closer to 20%. Global trade has long been the engine behind the rise of renewable energy. From solar panels manufactured in China, to wind turbines built with components sourced across different continents, the clean energy revolution underway has been propelled by open markets and international cooperation. #Trade across countries has allowed countries to leverage our comparative advantages, lowering costs and allowing for the commercial scaling of these technologies. Solar power, of which more than 80% of panel production takes place in China, has become one of the most affordable sources of electricity. #Solar has doubled within just 3 years, contributing greatly to the goal of making net-zero energy accessible to all. Trade has not just supported this growth; it has enabled it. But just as the world begins to tip toward a #cleanenergy future, we’re starting to see momentum stall. Rising trade tensions and unprecedented global tariffs now pose a huge threat to the progress we have experienced in recent years. #Tariffs are set to increase costs of renewables, making it less affordable, particularly in developing countries and furthering the inequality that already exists in the green transition. These higher costs will slow down clean energy adoption across the world, delaying the path towards our global net-zero targets. Supply chain disruptions and further retaliatory tariff measures will continue to threaten sustainable energy adoption. While the current landscape offers ample opportunity for greater regional cooperation, diversifying supply chains take time and investment – which again means deceleration in #renewable adoption, at least in the short to medium term. But the urgency of the climate crisis waits for no one. We simply cannot afford to not have the U.S., the world’s largest economy and second-largest emitter, on board. #Climate change requires us to coordinate our efforts – and trade barriers are diverting our attention and resources away from collaborative solutions. Every delay puts us further off course towards a more #sustainable future, deepening the risks we all face, from rising climate disasters to energy insecurity. The road to a sustainable future is paved not just with technology and investment, but with trust, collaboration, and shared vision. Now, more than ever before, we need to build bridges and partnerships, rather than walls and tariffs. We cannot lose sight of the fact that #cooperation remains the cornerstone of meaningful progress for our green energy transition. ❓ Comment your thoughts below.  ⚡ Share this post to raise awareness.  💡 Follow Poman Lo for more insights.

𝐂𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐩 𝐎𝐢𝐥, 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐋𝐍𝐆 U.S. shale producers are facing a double squeeze—tariff-driven cost inflation and collapsing oil revenues. Halliburton and Baker Hughes both flagged a deterioration in U.S. upstream activity this week. Tariffs are weighing heavily on drilling and frac operations, while oil prices are drifting toward levels that make new investment uneconomic. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the breakeven price for new wells in the Permian is $62–64/bbl. Trump, meanwhile, wants oil below $50. Independent operators are already feeling the strain, as Reuters reported today. If prices stay this low, baby will not drill—and the effects will ripple far beyond oil. 22% of U.S. gas comes from the Permian as associated gas. If oil drilling slows, so does gas production. Replacing that volume means shifting to dry gas basins like Haynesville or Appalachia, where costs are higher—and also rising due to tariffs. This has direct implications for U.S. LNG. With Henry Hub–indexed contracts, higher domestic production costs make U.S. cargoes less competitive—just as oil-indexed LNG from Qatar or Australia gets cheaper on the back of falling crude. On top of that, OPEC+ discipline is eroding. Kazakhstan, Iraq, and the UAE are exceeding quotas. If Saudi Arabia opens the taps to defend market share, the price slide could deepen. A cheaper barrel today could mean a more expensive cubic meter tomorrow—for U.S. LNG buyers and suppliers alike. What’s your take? Can U.S. LNG stay resilient if shale drilling stalls? #ShaleOil #USLNG #EnergyMarkets #OilPrices #NaturalGas #Geopolitics #Tariffs #OPEC #HenryHub #LNG

Clean energy deployment across the US and EU continues, but tariffs are adding a new layer of uncertainty. In our new article, Christian Therkelsen, Diego Hernandez Diaz, and I examine three potential tariff scenarios and their implications on five clean energy technologies, using a forward-looking energy system model through 2035. Our analysis shows that: + The adoption of clean energy technologies will likely take longer and cost more, the longer tariffs last and the higher they are. + Technologies like wind and EVs remain relatively robust, while solar and battery storage are more exposed to cost increases and slower deployment under high tariffs. + Importantly, these effects vary by geography—reflecting differences in import reliance and manufacturing capacity. For executives, the key takeaway is clear: those who evaluate their supply chains for vulnerabilities and strengths in the face of tariffs will be poised to better navigate the uncertain landscape. Read the full analysis to learn how tariffs could impact the clean energy transition. https://lnkd.in/efP9tGNp #McKinseyInsights #Tariffs #EnergyTransition

What impact will 25% #tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico have on the #energy prices that Americans pay? It's important to realize that, even though the U.S. is a net energy exporter on the whole, certain regions still rely heavily on energy imports. #Supplychains have been highly optimized over many years to leverage the cheapest sources of supply. Infrastructure such as pipelines, refineries, and transmission lines cannot be altered much in the short run. Even over longer timeframes, reconfiguring them would be very costly. The tariffs could cause #gasoline prices to spike in the Upper Midwest, where the supply chain has been built specifically to process Canadian crude #oil. Similarly, #electricity prices could increase in the Northeast and on the West Coast, where substantial #hydro power is imported from Canada. And of course, beyond American consumers, the U.S. energy industry also stands to lose (a lot) from the inevitable retaliatory tariffs that shrink its large export markets.

Trump’s trade tantrum slaps 50%+ duties on climate tech — from batteries to blades to boron. Global supply chains built climate tech. Tariffs will test how local they can get. Winners 👍 domestic battery makers, fusion futurists, and anyone with a US factory. Losers 👎 solar developers, Chinese inverters, and your LCOE model. Sightline Climate (CTVC) breaks down what a full-blown global trade war means for climate tech: https://lnkd.in/e2QkZz6U 🔋 Grid-scale battery storage: US tariffs on Chinese lithium-ion cells are set to jump 64.5%, making affordable energy storage much harder to deploy. 🚗 Electric vehicles: 25% tariff on all imported vehicles and parts and 54%+ tariff on Chinese EVs. ☀️ Solar panels: US imported ~95m panels last year, mostly from Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand — now hit with 36–46% tariffs. ⚡ Transformers & grid tech: US imports 80%+ of large transformers, mainly from Canada and Mexico. Tariffs on steel and aluminum (25%) and tariff threats on finished goods raise costs. ☢️ Nuclear fuel: >90% of US uranium supply is imported — Canada supplies 27%, now subject to a 10% import tariff on Canadian energy exports. 💨 Wind turbines: Blades, towers, magnets, and gearboxes often sourced from Europe and Asia. Rare earths from China face 34–54% tariffs. 💧 Green hydrogen: Electrolyzers and parts (membranes, compressors, valves) primarily imported from Germany, Japan, South Korea — now facing 20–32% tariffs. 🧱 Carbon capture: CCS equipment is largely imported from the EU and Asia, now facing 25–30% tariffs. 🌡️ Geothermal: Turbines, drilling rigs, heat exchangers, etc. are often imported from Germany, Japan, and the EU. Tariffs now range from 20–32%, plus 25% on steel inputs. 🏠 Heat pumps + HVAC: Compressors and control units from Japan, Korea, EU now face 24–32% duties. 🛰️ Sensors + MRV tech: Drones, infrared sensors, electronics from China and Taiwan face 34%+ tariffs. 💽 Semiconductors + chips: Currently exempt — but flagged for possible future tariffs. US imports from Taiwan, Korea, Japan remain high. 🧪 Critical minerals: Most raw and refined critical minerals — including Li, Co, Cu, U, and rare earths — were exempted. But China hit back with export controls on rare earths, threatening US access to vital EV, wind, and defense components.

Donald Trump’s new tariffs are set to pummel the renewable energy industry, threatening to push up prices, disrupt supply chains and undercut US ambitions to lead the artificial intelligence revolution, clean-technology executives said. The duties of 10 per cent to 49 per cent on electrical components, battery storage and other equipment from China, south-east Asia and Europe pose a one-two punch for an industry already reeling from Trump’s embrace of the fossil fuel industry and limited appetite for clean energy. Executives warned that the added costs from tariffs would in turn prompt higher power bills. Electricity prices rose twice as fast as inflation last year, according to Bank of America, with several utilities requesting double-digit price increases from regulators to cover the rising costs of labour, materials and upgrades to the grid. “This could be a potential de-railer when we really have to usher in this new era of energy dominance to put the US at the epicentre of data centres and AI technology,” said Sandhya Ganapathy, chief executive of EDP Renewables North America, one of the largest developers of wind, solar and battery storage in the US. “It is unsettling from a business perspective and creates disruption,” she added. Julien Dumoulin-Smith, analyst at Jefferies, an investment bank, said the tariffs created “a lot of turmoil” at a time when businesses were already uncertain about whether Trump would axe lucrative incentives for green energy provided by former US president Joe Biden. read for free here https://on.ft.com/4i0rS1X Financial Times EDP Renewables Amanda Chu Sandhya Ganapathy