Key Learnings from Ukraine Energy Forum

This CRS Report outlines several key observations and lessons derived from the Russian campaign against Ukrainian electricity infrastructure, which could be applicable to our own critical infrastructure protection efforts in the US. Some of the key observations: -The attacks focused on transmission facilities, substations, and large power transformers, with the goal of destabilizing major grid sections and hindering electricity transfer between Ukraine and Europe. -Ukrainian grid operators' familiarity with Russian tactics, vigilant cyber hygiene, and the use of manual override controls were crucial. Technical assistance from the U.S. and other countries also played a significant role in grid resilience. -Pre-war investments in transmission system modernization, stockpiling of spare equipment, and scenario modeling helped increase resilience. Wartime improvisation, such as using Starlink stations to fill communication gaps, was also vital. -Physical attacks had a more significant impact than cyberattacks, bringing the Ukrainian grid close to collapse with rolling blackouts becoming common. However, the grid did not entirely collapse due to robust pre-invasion preparations and international support. -Pre-existing issues such as low energy efficiency, governance challenges, and market structure inefficiencies were highlighted but not fully resolved. Emergency measures and international aid partially mitigated these problems. Lessons for the U.S.: Preparedness: The U.S. needs to consider long-term, sustained threats and the importance of maintaining critical infrastructure under persistent attack. Stockpiling and Modernization: Stockpiling of essential equipment and continuous modernization of grid infrastructure are crucial. Cybersecurity and Physical Security: Enhanced cybersecurity measures and physical protection of critical assets are necessary. Comprehensive Scenario Modeling: Emergency planning should include scenarios where the grid operates from a degraded state and considers the complex interdependencies among society, governance, and infrastructure. The report suggests potential congressional actions such as instituting stockpiling programs, creating industrial production incentives, establishing supply chain security requirements, and supporting the development of consensus resilience metrics.

Energy Future at the heart of Ukraine's sovereignty In Kyiv, it was impossible last week to ignore talking about the energy supply as the country is racing to secure enough heat and electricity for the winter. But the challenge goes on beyond this winter - without a secure supply of energy people leave, economy breaks, politics cracks. Without energy sovereignty Ukraine’s sovereignty is simply not possible. My visit to Kyiv overlapped with a forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine predicting an increase in emigration of up to 700,000 people in 2024-2025 “due to the significant destruction of Ukraine's energy system, accompanied by prolonged power outages and increasing the risk of the heating season”. The promise of stable energy supply is critical to convince Ukrainians to remain in their country. To bring those who already left back as well. This tragic war is a reminder for all of us that a modern society cannot exist without energy. The consequences of a broken energy system are not measured in blackouts but in number of people leaving the country. The aggressor knows it well. Since April 9200 MW of the country’s energy generation was destroyed: around 80–90% of Ukraine’s energy generation capacity at thermal power plants and around 45% at hydroelectric power plants has been lost. Getting international support for now is critical. And attracting private capital to Ukraine’s devastated energy systems will be key for its swift recovery. Without energy there is no economic activity. The country is ruined. Recent history of Ukraine shows that excessive reliance on oil and gas imports can contribute to spoil politics and impact economy. Healthy economy is based on market prices and free competition. Already much has been done: Energy Community Artur Lorkowski Annual Implementation Report from 2023 estimated that the progress on the markets and integration reform cluster was at 69%. But the remaining part is still critical to be achieved. Transparent energy markets will be as much of the cornerstone for strong and independent Ukraine as today its military forces are. We discussed next steps for the National Energy And Climate Plan just been approved by Yulia Svyrydenko, Ministry of Economy of Ukraine & Oleksii Sobolev, CFA as well as the expert team of Olena Pavlenko, MinEnergy led by German Galushchenko, MinInfrastructure led by Vasyl Shkurakov, MinEnvironment under Ruslan Strilets together with Viktoriia Kyreieva and MinAgriculture with Taras Vysotskyi were all contributing to the plan and are now focused on its delivery along the path of European integration: ·       How to combine surviving the winter & building future energy system? ·       What governance and reforms are still necessary to kickstart investments? ·       How to attract new financial investors and keep engagement of institutional donors? Ukraine’s energy is now at the heart of Ukraine’s survival. It will continue to remain at the heart of Ukraine's sovereignty.

IEA special report on Ukraine: action plan to help the country meet its energy needs through the challenging months ahead. The intensity of attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector creates risks that extend far beyond energy during the winter months. 10 key energy actions suggested by the IEA: 1 – Bolster the physical and cyber security of Ukraine's energy infrastructure 2 – Expedite the delivery of equipment and spare parts 3 – Increase and decentralise power supply 4 – Enhance electricity transmission capacity with the European Union 5 – Engage consumers in energy saving and demand response, while continuing investments in energy efficiency 6 – Prepare back-up options for winter heating 7 – Build up natural gas storage levels 8 – Strengthen firm gas import capacities from the European Union 9 – Coordinate approaches to Ukraine and Moldova 10 – Lay the groundwork for a modern, market-based, resilient and sustainable post-war energy system, well integrated with the European Union #ukraine #energy #securityofsupply #preparedness #infrastructure

⚡️🌱 Bioenergy: Time to Act! 🌱⚡️ Just back from the Future Energy Forum, where I shared Ukraine’s hands‑on experience and next steps in bioenergy. Below are the key take‑aways that must turn into action today. ⸻ Why it matters — right now • Geopolitical tension (Iran – Israel) can change global gas and oil prices sky‑high. • Ukraine’s energy infrastructure remains under constant attack. • Winter is around the corner, and energy demand will only climb. ⸻ Forum focus 1. Bioenergy in Ukraine’s EU‑integration & energy‑security agenda. 2. Project delivery & management – proven case studies that already work. 3. What the Government must do to scale up biogas and biomethane. 4. Support mechanisms for liquid biofuels – what works and how to improve. ⸻ Two moves we can’t postpone 1. Create a true “green corridor” for biogas & biomethane. • Streamline permits. • Offer tax and credit incentives so plants launch in months, not years. 2. Enforce (and raise) the E5 → E10 ethanol blend. • 5 % bio‑ethanol is already law; 10 % by 2026 is fully realistic (see Poland). • Keeps value‑added at home and cuts fuel imports. ⸻ What’s in it for 🇺🇦 • +Energy security: lower dependence on imported gas and oil. • +Local jobs & regional investment. • +Cleaner air: less CO₂ and sulfur. • +Foreign‑exchange savings by trimming the import bill. Ukrainian business is ready to build and scale 💪. Now the ball is in the government’s court: open the doors and we’ll walk through with projects that have already proven their worth. ⸻ Grateful to the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the chance to work and plan for the future! #Bioenergy #Biogas #Bioethanol #EnergySecurity #MadeInUkraine #FutureEnergy Yurii Shafarenko