Key Takeaways from Energy Operations

🌍 The 2025 World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA) is out! This is always one of my favorite big reports of the year as it really shows the status of the energy sector, key trends and developments, and the implications for the transition and net zero as well as security and investment. Here are my five takeaways from this year’s edition: 1. The transition continues even amid policy divergence Despite the U.S. quitting the Paris Agreement, clean energy momentum remains strong. Renewables set deployment records for the 23rd consecutive year, with solar and wind now meeting most new global demand growth. China, India, and emerging economies continue to drive expansion, while investment in renewables and electrification now accounts for half of global energy investment. 2. The future is electric and bigger than data centers Electricity demand is rising 40–50% by 2035 in all IEA scenarios. Electrification of transport, heating, and industry dwarfs the growth from AI and data centers, which account for less than 10% of new demand. The real challenge is grids: generation investment has surged 70% since 2015, but grid spending lags far behind, creating congestion and slowing connections. 3. Critical minerals are the new oil- to China’s benefit China now refines 19 of 20 strategic energy minerals, averaging 70% global market share, and over half face export controls. The IEA warns that supply concentration, not just fuel dependency, is the next major energy security risk. Diversification and resilience are imperatives for clean energy supply chains. 4. The fossil fuel peak is near, but not near enough Coal and oil demand likely peak before 2030, yet gas continues to rise into the 2030s. Without a rapid and sustained fall in fossil fuel use, global emissions stay far above Paris goals. The IEA projects around 2.5°C of warming under current policies, and overshoot of 1.5°C is now inevitable, even in the Net Zero scenario. 5. If policies stay strong, we will see rapid decarbonization Achieving climate goals depends not just on scaling renewables but on phasing out fossil fuels. Efficiency improvements, faster permitting, stronger grid investment, and transition finance for emerging markets remain essential. The IEA underscores that the tools are known, we just need the market certainty that good policy provides. More to come on the financial and investor implications of the report’s trends for Newsletter subscribers next week! ➡️ Full report here: https://lnkd.in/eRgf45-P #energy #transition #climate #iea #netzero #renewables #electricity #fossilfuels #criticalminerals #electrification #batteries #policy

This pivotal background paper marks a fundamental departure from the old playbook. It argues that energy security is no longer just about oil barrels; it's a multi-dimensional challenge at the heart of national, economic, and climate security. In a landmark Summit on the Future of Energy Security, the International Energy Agency (IEA), in partnership with the UK, has laid out a new, holistic vision for navigating an increasingly complex world. 💡 Here are the key takeaways from the report: 1️⃣ The old focus on oil supply disruptions is now just one piece of a much larger puzzle. The new landscape includes risks from clean energy supply chains, electricity grid stability, cyber-attacks, and extreme weather. 2️⃣ As the world electrifies, the stability and resilience of electricity grids have become the new frontline of energy security. This includes managing the integration of variable renewables, modernizing infrastructure, and ensuring affordability. 3️⃣ The transition to clean energy trades reliance on fossil fuels for reliance on critical minerals and technology manufacturing. The report highlights the extreme geographic concentration of these supply chains as a major vulnerability. 4️⃣ Energy security can no longer be viewed in isolation. It is deeply intertwined with economic security (price volatility), digital security (cyber threats), and climate security (physical risks to infrastructure). 🚧 Key Challenges: ✴️ A major concern is the high geographic concentration of manufacturing and processing for clean energy technologies. The paper notes, for example, that China holds around 85-98% of battery manufacturing capacity and 80-95% of that for solar PV. ✴️ Energy infrastructure is increasingly vulnerable to physical threats from extreme weather exacerbated by climate change, as well as growing cyber-threats to our highly digitalized energy systems. ✴️ The core challenge remains balancing security, affordability, and sustainability. However, this must now be done in a fragmented geopolitical landscape with competing national priorities. 🚀 Major Opportunities: ✳️ Expanding renewables and improving energy efficiency are powerful tools to reduce reliance on volatile international fossil fuel markets and decrease import dependency. ✳️ New technologies, including AI, advanced grid management, and innovative storage solutions, offer powerful ways to optimize systems, enhance resilience, and manage new demand from sectors like data centers. ✳️ The complexity of these shared challenges demands a new level of international cooperation on everything from supply chain diversification and data sharing to establishing common principles for resilience. #EnergySecurity #IEA #EnergyTransition #CleanEnergy #Geopolitics #SupplyChain #CriticalMinerals #Electricity #ClimateSecurity #Decarbonization

NEW RESEARCH - WHY THE ENERGY TRANSITION IS DISRUPTIVE & COULD BE MUCH FASTER THAN WE THINK: The clean energy transition isn’t just about swapping out old tech for new—it’s a complex, non-linear process full of feedback loops, tipping points, and unexpected consequences. Our new “Systems Archetypes of the Energy Transition” brief is a must-read for anyone shaping policy, investing, or innovating in this space. Key takeaways: 1) Feedback loops drive change: Reinforcing loops (like learning-by-doing and economies of scale) have made solar, wind, and batteries cheaper and more widespread, often outpacing even the boldest forecasts. 2) Path dependence is real: Early advantages for a technology (think BEVs vs. hydrogen cars) can snowball into market dominance, making policy choices and timing critical. 3) Limits and synergies: As renewables grow, market dynamics like “cannibalisation” can dampen investment—unless we design markets and storage solutions to keep the momentum going. 4) Policy design is everything: Well-intentioned fixes (like price caps or broad subsidies) can backfire, while smart, targeted interventions can unlock positive feedbacks across sectors. 5) Tipping points and decline: The decline of fossil fuels isn’t just a mirror image of clean tech growth—it comes with its own feedbacks, risks, and opportunities for a just transition. The brief also offers practical guidance on using causal loop diagrams and participatory systems mapping—powerful tools for understanding and managing the complexity of the transition. If you’re working on energy, climate, or innovation policy, I highly recommend giving this a read. Let’s move beyond linear thinking and embrace the systems view—because the future will be shaped by those who understand the dynamics beneath the surface. This briefing was led by Simon Sharpe at S-Curve Economics CIC, Max Collett 柯墨, Pete Barbrook-Johnson, me at Environmental Change Institute (ECI), University of Oxford & Oriel College, Oxford & the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) and Michael Grubb at UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources.

In the third part of my Understanding Energy Resilience series, I want to start with something many of you will have seen in the news: recent drone disruptions at major airports. Munich having to temporarily close its airspace. Oslo halting landings. Copenhagen pausing operations for hours. These incidents showed how quickly one small object can halt a critical service, create chaos and cost millions. Now take that thought to energy. If a drone over a runway makes headlines, a drone over energy infrastructure often doesn't. Yet the consequences can be just as real: disruptions to electricity supply, halted rail services and factories forced to stop production. Across Europe, operators are not allowed to neutralize hostile drones themselves – even when a threat is visible above critical infrastructure. Simply put: the rules have not caught up with reality. In my view, clarity and speed here are essential for public safety. Next to physical threats we also face digital ones. Every hour, around 35 million cyberattacks happen worldwide – almost 10,000 every second. Around 5% of them target energy companies and infrastructure. This is the world we operate in: attacks can appear out of nowhere and put entire systems to the test in real time. From my perspective, defending energy infrastructure comes down to a few key priorities: 1️⃣ Let protection happen: Regulation needs to enable energy operators to protect themselves. Clear rules must define who can intervene, when and how – including stopping a hostile drone. We cannot afford hesitation while minutes turn into outages. 2️⃣ Treat physical and digital as one: Fences, cameras and access control on the ground. Network separation and continuous monitoring in the control room. Physical and digital security must be treated as one because if someone can walk in, they can often plug in and disrupt the system. 3️⃣ Harden the infrastructure no one can afford to lose: The majority of physical and cyberattacks on energy systems target a small number of high-impact sites – such as substations, control rooms and interconnectors. Better detection and stronger barriers here make the difference between local disturbance and national outage. 4️⃣ Practice recovery, not just prevention: Real resilience is measured in how quickly power is restored. Simple restart plans, spare parts ready on site and regular drills with operators and authorities turn days in the dark into hours. 5️⃣ Stop naivety – talk openly about risk: We need public awareness without drama – which is one of the reasons I started this series. The more people understand that drones over critical sites are serious and that malware or phishing mails are no joke, the more support there will be for sensible protection. I believe this is the right balance: clear authority to act, practical protection on the ground and in the network with a constant focus on rapid recovery. In a more contested world, that is how energy systems stay open for business.

Over the years working in chemical processing, one of the recurring challenges I’ve faced is with heat exchangers. They are essential for energy efficiency, but even minor issues can create significant downtime and cost. Not long ago, we encountered a serious fouling issue in one of our exchangers. The deposits were reducing heat transfer efficiency, causing higher energy consumption and forcing frequent shutdowns for cleaning. 🔍Instead of treating it as just another maintenance task, we carried out a detailed root cause analysis: • Reviewed process conditions and flow patterns. • Checked velocity and temperature profiles. • Involved both the operations and maintenance teams in the discussion. The findings showed that low fluid velocity was the main driver for fouling. By redesigning the piping layout and adjusting the operating parameters, we were able to: ✅ Increase turbulence and reduce fouling. ✅ Extend cleaning cycles from every 3 months to once a year. ✅ Achieve over 15% improvement in efficiency. For me, the key takeaway is that every technical problem is also an opportunity to innovate and improve reliability. Collaboration and data-driven decisions can transform a recurring issue into a long-term success.

When I graduated as an engineer, I had a dream of pursuing advanced research. But I chose a different path first: I spent 10 years in the field to find the problems worth solving. My decade at Khalda Petroleum Company (Apache JV) wasn't just a job; it was a masterclass in operational reality. From acid stimulation and well completions to hydraulic fracturing and interventions, I lived the data. The Reality of the Field: In the industry, we don’t have the luxury of "perfect" lab conditions. Our mornings started with production reports and high-stakes discussions. Decisions were made on the fly—over phone calls at 2 AM, on weekends, and during vacations. I spent those years immersed in pressures, rates, proppant properties, and well logs. Over time, you develop a "sixth sense" for distinguishing fake data from real data. You learn that while textbooks ask for expensive measurements, the real world requires justified decisions based on available resources. Bridging the Gap: I went back for my PhD not to escape the field, but to master it. I focused my research on "Free Data"—the information recorded during every job (injection rates, production volumes, and treating pressures) that often goes underutilized. My dissertation developed technology using Continuous Wavelet Transform to solve the very problems I identified on the rig: Chapter 2: Fracture Closure analysis. Chapter 3: Modeling hydraulic fractures using Machine Learning and treating pressure. Chapter 4: Water Hammer analysis. Chapter 5: Well communication during waterflooding. Check the developed technology here:- https://lnkd.in/gqnfzC-T The Takeaway: You don't need a clean lab environment to innovate. You need the grit to handle messy field data and the vision to see the patterns within it. I’m excited to share that this technology is now developed and ready for discussion. If you’re interested in how we can turn standard operational data into high-level insights, let’s connect! #OilAndGas #PetroleumEngineering #HydraulicFracturing #MachineLearning #EnergyIndustry #DataScience #PhDLife #Innovation

𝟭𝟬 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨.𝗦. 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗴𝗿𝗶𝗱 The grid is not broken. It is constrained in ways most organizations are not planning for. If your business depends on reliable, scalable power, this is no longer academic. It is operational risk. 𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝟭𝟬 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴: 𝟭. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗿𝗶𝗱 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝗹𝗼𝘄, 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵. AI, data centers, and electrification changed that. 𝟮. 𝗚𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀. Transmission is the bottleneck. 𝟯. 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗮𝗹 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝗱𝗲𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆. Queue position does not guarantee power. 𝟰. 𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻. Reliability costs more. 𝟱. 𝗡𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗴𝗿𝗶𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆. It is the only scalable, dispatchable fuel that can respond to extreme conditions in real-time. 𝟲. 𝗥𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗱𝗱 𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗺 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘆. That distinction matters when conditions are extreme. 𝟳. 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘀. Access to power will matter more than price in many growth markets. 𝟴. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗿𝗶𝗱 𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹. Strategies do not transfer cleanly. 𝟵. 𝗟𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗴𝗿𝗶𝗱 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘁𝘀. Curtailment, self-generation, and flexibility are now expected. 𝟭𝟬. 𝗘𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼 𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗲. It is a long-term operational and strategic risk. We see this daily working with energy-intense operations planning tens of megawatts up to and beyond gigawatt-scale growth. The gap between assumptions and reality is widening. 𝗜𝗳 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗿𝗶𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘀𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝘂𝗽, 𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. #EnergyIQ #PowerGrid #DataCenters #Manufacturing #LegendEnergyAdvisors

Interesting observation: World Electricity Supply 2035 will look much like California 2025. This raises an interesting question: What can the World 2035 learn from California 2025? Here is a first try with five positive lessons and five challenges: What works? Solar/wind + batteries + smarter operations.  What breaks? Grid bottlenecks, fossil lock-in, volatility. Five positive takeaways from California: 1. PV and Wind can become a dominant electricity supply. Lesson: build renewables fast, but in parallel with flexibility. 2. BESS works at scale for fast ramping and peak shaving. Lesson: scale short-duration BESS early while longer-duration mature. 3. Operational tools and forecasting improve dramatically in RE systems. Lesson: invest in forecasting, automation, digitalization. 4. Curtailment can be a feature, not a flaw. Lesson: plan and use curtailment strategically. 5. Learning-by-doing lowers cost. Lesson: build pipelines matter as much as technology choice. Five major challenges to avoid and mitigate: 1. Net-load ramps become the core system constraint. Lesson: wind/solar with storage, flexibility, transmission. 2. Over-reliance on gas/coal as regulation creates a decarbonisation trap. Lesson: develop low-carbon flexibility early. 3. Transmission bottlenecks can erase renewable gains. Lesson: treat grid build-out as critical national infrastructure. 4. Price volatility can undermine investment. Lesson: develop credible markets for capacity and locational value. 5. Weather extremes expose correlated risk. Lesson: prepare for correlated weather risk, adequacy margins, regional diversity. Note: The IEA stated policy scenario for the World by 2035 gives a similar mix of generation as California's mix 2025: 45-50% weatherdependent generation from wind/solar (relatively more PV in CA and relatively more wind in the world), 10% from hydro power, 8% from nuclear and 30-35% from fossil thermal generation (more gas in CA and more coal in the World) and remaining 3-4% from other renewables. #electricitymarkets #renewableenergy #brightfuture

Nat Bullard's annual 200 slides are out today, and they're essential context for our field. Here are 5 takeaways with RMI resources, from bad news to good news and more: https://lnkd.in/gJKK5YZq   1. Trends in Asia: Southeast Asia hasn't turned the corner yet (slide 19), but India's emissions growth is slowing (23) and China's is stopping (22) as global renewables surge past coal (75, 81). RMI is hard at work to show how clean energy can support rapid growth, especially in Southeast Asia across industry, cooling, transport, methane, and electricity most of all.   2. Trends in the US: Projects are getting cancelled (29) and funds are waning (58), but the clean power pipeline is stronger than ever (84). These projects will be critical to growing the grid without growing costs, as my colleagues have shown in a recent article.   3. Electric vehicles: EV policy have had a rough year in the US, but global sales are growing faster than ever (112). More than 1 in 4 new cars have a plug, and the same is true for medium-duty trucks in China (122). As global EVs reach a new phase of deployment, we'll need additional action on charging, grid readiness, and low-impact manufacturing across efficiency and circularity.   4. Industry: Plastics consumption has soared to 15% of oil demand (165), but cement is a different story (9). Efficiency can save some wasted energy and resources in both cases -- roughly halving production's impacts by 2050 if system-wide improvements are made.   5. The bottom line: Fossil fuel imports (20) and power plant costs are rising (87) as the gas turbine bottleneck intensifies (28). But clean energy is making dollars and sense (to borrow Nat's turn of phrase), saving UK customers £100+ billion from wind power alone (71). When it comes to bank loans, green underwriting outperformed fossil fuel underwriting for the 4th year running (48) -- and clean energy stocks rose 2x faster than the market average (54). That's progress to share far and wide, as affordability remains crucial across the world.   I would have liked to see more on the >90% of near-term electricity load growth that's not data centers (35), especially industry as the largest growth factor. Similar on the super pollutants that contribute half of current warming, but could go away quickly if solution scaling continues (65). But there is some good attention to cooling (25), where RMI is hard at work to scale super-efficient appliances while avoiding the sector's highly-warming refrigerants. And there's Waymo wordplay in the slide titles (37), which I always enjoy.   Sources linked and screenshots below for ease of reference (but please see Nat's link for the full, higher-res deck).   What struck you most? Thoughts welcome as always!