Mining Industry Consolidation Trends in 2024

Mining software leaders are forming an oligopoly. *Good luck getting mining procurement to approve anything new* A handful of giants are quietly buying up every significant player to create end-to-end "super-suites. This is a classic power grab, designed to create impenetrable moats and lock customers into a single ecosystem. It’s an ancient strategy: acquire every critical piece of the value chain, from geology and planning to fleet management, and then sell the whole bundle as the only "safe" choice for big mining houses. You can see it happening everywhere. Even the equipment manufacturers are getting in on it. Caterpillar has a non-binding proposal to acquire RPMGlobal, which would give it a native planning and scheduling capability. This leaves very few major players standing on their own. Maptek is pretty much the only large, truly independent suite left. The marketing pitch for these giants is about convenience and integration. They sell the idea of "one vendor, one bill, full coverage". But the real drivers are far more self-serving. Once a mine is running on a single integrated platform, the cost and complexity of switching become astronomical. They're selling the removal of choice because big enterprises prefer fewer vendors and are averse to risk. The new narrative to justify this is that data is king. By owning every application, they can collect massive datasets to power a superior "AI flywheel," making their suite smarter and harder to displace. In this new reality, the strategic playbook is completely different depending on your size. The consolidated giants need to sell safety and scale. Their game is to convince the C-suite that choosing their integrated suite is the safe career move. They leverage their large balance sheets and comprehensive stacks to de-risk the procurement process. If you’re one of the last big independents, you can’t compete on breadth, so you must win on depth and focus. This is where you have to become a category creator, not just another vendor in a crowded field. Your marketing has to shift from "we sell a simulation tool" to "we own a simulation for mining". For startups and niche players, the strategy is to find the cracks that the giants are too big and slow to focus on. If the incumbents sell breadth, you must sell unparalleled depth in a specific vertical. While the giants buy attention with massive marketing budgets, startups have to manufacture it by building a cult-like following. Your marketing must be about signaling your unique IP and niche dominance to potential acquirers. What we're witnessing is the predictable maturation of a market. Power is concentrating, and choice is diminishing. The giants win by removing risk, the independents win by framing focus as power, and the startups win by turning their irrelevance into an identity worth acquiring. It's a fascinating chess game, but one that will likely lead to less competition and slower innovation for the end customer.

BlackRock believes larger miners may be needed to meet the world’s growing commodity demands. BlackRock sees merit in more large scale mining mergers and acquisitions, arguing that the industry needs greater scale if it is going to deliver the metals required for the next phase of global growth. Speaking in Perth, Olivia Markham of BlackRock noted that commodity demand is accelerating while the commodity intensity of GDP growth continues to rise. In her view, every major investment theme currently driving markets from artificial intelligence and electrification to defence spending and energy security ultimately leads back to mining. Her comments are particularly noteworthy given that Rio Tinto and Glencore explored a merger earlier this year that would have created a mining giant worth approximately $240 billion. Although Rio Tinto ultimately walked away from the discussions, BlackRock believes the logic behind consolidation remains compelling. The reasoning is straightforward. Large institutional investors prefer large, liquid companies. Bigger miners typically have better access to capital, stronger project development teams, and greater capacity to build the increasingly complex projects needed to bring new supply online. At the same time, the supply side remains under pressure. Years of underinvestment have left the industry struggling to respond to rapidly growing demand. According to BlackRock, there is no immediate supply response for many critical commodities, meaning higher prices may ultimately be required to incentivize the next generation of mines. The real question is no longer whether commodity demand will grow. It is whether the mining industry is large enough to meet it.

Mega-Merger talks in mining: Rio Tinto & Glencore reignite consolidation buzz 🌍 Global mining could be on the brink of its largest-ever consolidation, with Rio Tinto and Glencore confirming merger discussions that could create the world’s biggest mining company by enterprise value. Details? 📝 🤝 Preliminary talks are underway on a potential combination of Rio Tinto and Glencore’s businesses, likely via Rio acquiring Glencore through a court-sanctioned scheme 🇬🇧 Under UK takeover rules, Rio Tinto must announce a firm intention to make an offer by 5 Feb 2026 or withdraw 📈 Early market reaction has been significant, with Glencore shares rising and Rio Tinto’s shares falling on the news This is not an isolated story in the sector... ☑️ Anglo American’s merger with Teck Resources would create the world’s fifth-largest copper producer ❌ BHP’s failed attempts to acquire Anglo highlight both strategic ambition and growing deal complexity 🇦🇺 Partnerships and collaboration is increasing (Rio Tinto and BHP Group have agreed to work together on some new projects at neighboring iron-ore mines in Australia) ⛏️ Mining supermajors are increasingly scaling up to secure long-life, low-cost copper supply  Why now? 🟢 The backdrop to these discussions is a historic surge in demand for copper and other industrial metals, driven by electrification, AI and clean-energy infrastructure 1️⃣ Global copper demand is forecast to rise c.50% by 2040 2️⃣ Copper prices are up c.40% over the past year, due to tightening supply 3️⃣ New mine development timelines remain long, capital-intensive and increasingly constrained As a result, existing assets are becoming more valuable than future discoveries resulting in increased M&A activity in this space What’s next? 🏆 📅 Deadline: By 05/02/26, a firm offer must be announced or talks could be formally shelved under UK regulatory timelines ⚖️ Regulatory review: Competition authorities in major markets will closely scrutinise the deal, especially given critical mineral supply concerns 📉 Market impact: Share price movements hint at investor uncertainty around valuation and strategic fit What a Rio–Glencore combination could mean? ✅ Dominant positioning in global copper supply ✅ Greater leverage across critical minerals ❎ Portfolio complexity (around coal) If realised, this deal would be more than a headline-grabbing merger...it would signal a structural shift in how miners position for a copper-constrained, electrified global economy!

Mining M&A hit US$114.6 billion in 2025. Up 60% year on year. EY's latest deals report frames this as a "new growth playbook" with sharper strategic intent. And the data backs it up. Capital is concentrating in copper, gold, and steel. District-level partnerships are replacing outright acquisitions. Structured deals, minority stakes, and all-stock transactions are the preferred vehicles. Battery minerals remain stuck in valuation resets while sovereign capital fills the gap. When the world's largest miners are entering joint ventures to share permitting risk, co-investing just to access adjacent infrastructure, and recycling portfolios to fund tier one exposure they don't already have, that's not strategic sophistication. The cost, complexity, and timeline of building new large-scale mines has become so prohibitive that even the majors would rather split the risk than go alone. Growth is "increasingly structured rather than owned," as the report puts it. It means the industry has quietly moved from building assets to assembling them. And the further you push that model, the more dependent you become on a shrinking pool of viable projects and an expanding web of sovereign, regulatory, and geopolitical conditions attached to each one. Meanwhile, governments are becoming the marginal price-setters of capital allocation. The US, Australia, Saudi Arabia, and China are all deploying policy-driven financing that has less to do with commodity fundamentals and more to do with supply chain control. For more of my takes on the resource industry sign up to my weekly newsletter www.kamoacap.com #Mining #CriticalMinerals #Copper #Resources #CapitalMarkets #MandA Source: EY, "Mining's growth playbook is being rewritten: Capital allocation, risk, and the new M&A cycle" (2025)

I’m not here to make a list of predictions for 2025. Instead, I want to share something way more useful. Why no predictions? Antimony. Who predicted its big rise last year? (I checked. Couldn't find anyone. Not even a critical metals analyst!) But here’s the thing: it doesn’t matter. Antimony’s surprise run taught us the real value is: - Understanding the playing field (like China’s control of critical minerals) - Spotting the catalyst early (export restrictions)? - Taking action when everyone else is working on background research. So, looking ahead, here are three big trends I’m keeping an eye on: 1. Gold Production is Peaking Gold prices jumped 30% last year, but production didn’t follow. Big projects like IAMGOLD’s Côté Gold Mine in Ontario are impressive (expected to hit 495,000 ounces/year at peak). But even with new projects, global gold production is expected to drop by 3% per year through the rest of this decade. This directly ties into the next big trend… 2. Big Gold is Spending Big Every investor wants growth, including those in gold mining. To keep up, major gold companies will need to buy more mines, companies, and large projects. The reality is, there aren’t many other ways to grow. We’ll also see more joint ventures and investments in juniors. Why? Cash flows are strong, and there aren’t enough opportunities to spend that cash—so it’ll flow into acquisitions and partnerships. Mergers and acquisitions happen in both bull and bear markets, but these conditions will keep activity moving upward. 3. Juniors are Making a Slow Comeback The junior mining sector is starting to bounce back. In October, junior and intermediate financing hit $1.61 billion—the highest level in two years. Drilling activity is also rising, with the number of reported drill holes up 40% from recent lows. That said, activity is still about 20% below 2022 levels—but the decline has slowed, and things are improving. I’m sure there are many quotes from generals about knowing the battlefield before engaging, but you get the point. So, while 2025 may not bring dramatic predictions, the big moves will likely come from unexpected opportunities. With these trends as the backdrop, it’s clear the industry is gearing up for some interesting times.

Profits doubled, Y/Y revenues were up 20%, costs were lower, and the product’s price was at an all-time high. Yet, the share price of the world’s largest gold miner was down. Lower ore production (down 15%) and lower ore grade plus increased future capex weighed on investors. The issues are not, and will not be, specific to one company. Ore degradation and limited supply seem endemic across mining. Copper and iron ore have both experienced quality degradation. Copper’s average grade declined by 40% since the ‘90s. And on January 2, 2026, at least two Iron Ore benchmarks (used to trade iron ore) will lower their iron ore purity content. Alumina, silica and other minerals are also experiencing decreases in purity. The product is getting worse and harder to find. For example, despite higher prices, no new major gold discoveries have been made in the last 2 years. 70% of the world’s copper was discovered in the ‘90s with zero discoveries in ’22 and ’23. Discoveries are also on average 35% smaller. Despite that, exploration budgets decreased by 15% in ‘23 and an additional 7% in ‘24 per S&P. Smaller and less frequent discoveries means reliance on brownfield projects with increasing depth and complexity, i.e. higher costs. It also means continued reliance on highly concentrated supply chains. At the same time, the demand for more metals and minerals will only increase from here. The industry’s solution seems to be to super-size it. M&A activity in the last 2 years has set a 20-year record. The oil industry also went through that in the late 90s and early 00s when oil behemoths were created and right before oil surged in price. Yet, those mergers do not create ore nor solve concentration risks. They may just lower the costs of already depleting assets (potentially good for shareholders). The solution instead might be in pursuing new, albeit smaller, discoveries outside existing supplies. Per McKinsey, 62% of copper, 44% of rare earths and 36% of lithium exist in jurisdictions outside those of the top three producers. But dispersion requires capital, technology and better legal frameworks. New money will require higher prices- copper, nickel and lithium prices must be 19%,16% and 36% higher than 2024 prices to spur additional investments. Technologies such as direct lithium extraction and new leaching technologies should lower costs and increase supply. But streamlining the permitting process is key. It now takes 18 years to bring a mine online (~30 years for some) and antiquated laws don’t help. The US, for example, operates under a general mining law first enacted in - wait for it - 1872. Upgrading these laws should allow for faster, higher and cheaper production. Our modern economy increasingly demands these materials. Producing them will require ~$5 trillion over the next 10 years. Smaller dispersed production could bridge demand, but more work and more capital is required. PS: Not AI content. Not investment advice.

Is the era of mining mega-deals making a comeback? In early 2025, Rio Tinto’s $6.7 billion lithium acquisition in Argentina marked more than a headline, it signaled the return of mega-deals to mining. BHP, Glencore, and Anglo American already reignited copper and nickel talks worth over $40 billion in 2024 - 2025. Recently, the US and Australia have signed a deal to support $8.5B in “ready-to-go” projects to expand mining and processing capacity. There is sudden momentum- 👉 Because critical minerals are no longer just resources - they’re geopolitical leverage. 👉 Copper demand is expected to surge 35% by 2030 as electrification accelerates. 👉 Lithium demand is forecast to triple by 2035, fueling the battery revolution. 👉 Rare earths remain China’s stronghold refining over 60% of global supply spurring new alliances like the U.S.- Australia Critical Minerals Partnership. Technological integration is also breathing new life into the mining sector- 👉 Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) is transforming brine recovery in Argentina, Chile, and Germany - cleaner, faster, and more efficient. 👉 AI-driven exploration by firms like KoBold Metals is identifying billion-dollar deposits in Zambia and Canada. 👉 Reprocessing tailings could reclaim millions of tonnes of copper in Chile, redefining waste as strategic inventory. Governments are now funding resilience. The winners won’t just own the mines; they’ll own the methods that make mining sustainable and data-driven. #Mining #CriticalMinerals #Lithium #Copper #AI #EnergyTransition #Sustainability #Geopolitics #Innovation

China’s playbook is simple: Own the mines, dictate the market. In 2024, Chinese mining M&A surged to its highest in over a decade: ▶️ $22.1 billion in overseas investment ▶️ 10 deals above $100 million - the highest since 2013 ▶️ Assets snapped up across Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Africa Why this sudden rush? Because #China already dominates the processing of rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and other critical minerals. What it doesn’t control ‘yet’ are the mines. And now, it is closing that gap. From Appian Capital Advisory LLP’s copper-gold mine in Brazil to a $1.2B gold mine in Kazakhstan, Chinese firms like CMOC, MMG, and Zijin are executing a coordinated buying spree with state banks issuing billions in mineral-backed loans across the developing world. What is the global situation, particularly in Western nations? They are growing increasingly wary, tightening their local controls and supply chains. But China is playing a longer game: ✅ Investing in riskier jurisdictions ✅ Accepting lower ROIs ✅ Moving before geopolitics closes the window As part of my deeper analysis on the topic, one thing is clear: The great decoupling is not just about chips or AI. Instead, it is about rocks. Because whoever controls the minerals… controls the transition. Ref: Financial Times #china #mergers #acquisitions #globalstrategy #commodities #minerals

𝗠&𝗔 𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹𝘀: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗲𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 2024 has been a year of strategic consolidation for the materials sector, with M&A activity reshaping industries from paper & packaging to mining and metals. McKinsey & Company's "M&A Annual Report" highlighted as market conditions grow more complex, companies are scaling up, integrating vertically, and pushing the boundaries of innovation. ⚒️𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 & 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝘀: The energy transition is fueling M&A, particularly in copper, lithium, and nickel—the backbone of electrification and EVs with Chinese investors continuing to expand their presence. 🏭𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀 & 𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗲𝗹: One of the most exciting shifts in metals is the emergence of #green steel. As new entrants disrupt the industry, M&A is becoming a critical tool to 𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘄 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹𝘀, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘇𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝘀. Strategic deals along the value chain and supplier partnerships will define the future of this space. At Gunung Raja Paksi (GRP), we see this shift as a transformation, not just a trend. That’s why we’re driving strategic partnerships to accelerate our green steel journey—from securing green financing to pioneering low-carbon steel production. Despite trade tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, the deal pipeline for 2025 looks strong. Lower interest rates, and ample investor capital could drive even more activity. 💡For companies in materials, now is the time to 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆, 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝘀𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗲𝗶𝘇𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱. #GreenSteel #MaterialsSector #MergersAndAcquisitions #SustainableManufacturing #EnergyTransition #GunungRajaPaksi #Decarbonization Reference: https://lnkd.in/d_Ax8tmx