Transportation Accessibility and Housing Values

What if I tell you that the most expensive square meter in a project is often the one where you don’t need a car. Yes, mixed-use developments are moving away from car-dependency to walkable communities and property values are following. Recent studies show that homes in walkable areas command up to a 20% premium compared to similar homes in car-dependent areas. After 22 years in development, I'm watching this shift reshape how we plan projects. Here's why walkability translates directly into higher valuations: 1/ Demand is driving the premium: A Redfin study found that home prices increased by an average of $3,250, or 0.9%, with each Walk Score point gained. When a home's Walk Score moves from 60 (somewhat walkable) to 80 (very walkable), the average value increase is more than $100,000. 2/ Buyers pay for convenience: Each step up the walkability ladder adds $9 per square foot to annual office rents, $7 per square foot to retail rents, more than $300 per month to apartment rents, and nearly $82 per square foot to home values. People are willing to pay significantly more to walk to work, shops, and restaurants instead of driving. 3/ It attracts broader demographics: Walkable neighborhoods appeal to everyone from young professionals to retirees, and you need to keep that in mind because you're not building for a niche market, you're building for sustained demand across age groups and lifestyles. 4/ Future-proofing matters: The walkability premium has continued to increase over time, with 44 of 51 major metro areas experiencing an increase in walkable home values relative to car-dependent ones between 2012 and 2019. For any new developments, walkability isn't an amenity that you add at the end. It's a core design principle from day one. Proximity to retail, green spaces, transit connections, and community services drives unit pricing, tenant mix, and long-term appreciation potential. The market is clear: people don't just want homes. They want neighborhoods where daily life doesn't require getting in a car. Developers who build for that reality create lasting value.

The housing affordability crisis has a solution nobody's talking about: Transportation infrastructure. At the National Advocacy Conference, I heard something that crystallized years of observations: High-speed rail and transit improvements could completely reshape housing affordability. Here's why: • Proximity to work has surged back to 55% importance in housing decisions • This concentrates demand in job-center cities • Limited supply in these areas drives prices skyward • Legacy zoning restricts density in areas people want to live But what if we could expand the definition of "proximity to work"? Imagine a world where: • Boston to Worcester takes 20 minutes by train instead of 90+ minutes by car • Affordable communities suddenly become viable for city workers • Housing supply increases without fighting entrenched NIMBY interests • Development occurs in areas welcoming growth This isn't science fiction—it's happening globally where high-speed rail connects previously distant communities. The math is compelling: • A $500,000 Boston-area property might cost $250,000 in Worcester • At 90+ minutes commuting, few will make that trade • At 20 minutes, it becomes highly attractive • This alleviates pressure on urban cores while revitalizing smaller cities For mortgage professionals, this represents a massive opportunity: • Expanding markets beyond traditional high-cost areas • Supporting development in emerging transit hubs • Financing transit-oriented development • Creating products tailored to transit-accessible communities While zoning reform is critical, transportation infrastructure could be the catalyst that fundamentally reshapes housing affordability in America. The mortgage industry should be advocating for transportation investments as enthusiastically as we advocate for housing policy reforms. Because sometimes, the solution to a housing crisis isn't just more housing—it's connecting the housing we have to where people need to be.

Recently published: Isaac Mann and David Levinson (2024) Access-based cost-benefit analysis. Journal of Transport Geography. Volume 119, July 2024, 103952. https://lnkd.in/gxyJQAn6 #OpenAccess Abstract Current methods of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for transport investments rely on travel-time savings for potential users. This approach presents a consistent and significant historical trend of forecast inaccuracy, and thus has been questioned and criticized. Access, or the ease of reaching valued destinations, can be used as an alternative. Access features a strong correlation with land value which can be measured through hedonic analysis, and subsequently, access gains offered by a transport initiative can be monetised via property uplift. We test this hypothesis and evaluate Sydney's South West Metro Link (SWML). We first develop linear and semi-log ordinary least square hedonic pricing models for house sales in the Sydney region. The models are set up with structural and neighbourhood attributes in addition to access measures, and result in a statistically significant fit. Next, we model changes to job access induced by the SWML. Benefits are then quantified by land value uplift and are estimated at $1.87 Billion in 2031 and between $1.53–$3.08 Billion in 2061, which reflect base and transit-oriented development (TOD) scenarios. The project is thus feasible should certain land use and economic conditions be met, including TOD to occur about station localities by 2061 and if project costs are minimal. Although limitations are noted, access-based CBA exhibits significant promise as an alternative approach to appraisal and has direct application in value capture strategy.

Townhomes aren’t struggling because people don’t want them. They struggle when we put them in places that require a car for every errand and feel disconnected from daily life. 🚗 Put townhomes in walkable, mixed-use, downtown locations - near jobs, schools, restaurants, parks, and transit - and they don’t just sell… they fly. This reinforces something I keep coming back to... ‼️🏡 Housing affordability and housing demand are inseparable from land use and location. 🏡‼️ When we push attainable housing types like townhomes to the edges of our communities, we shouldn’t be surprised when demand softens. When we integrate them into the heart of our cities, we create: - Stronger neighborhoods. - More attainable ownership options. - Long-term value and stability. - Less sprawl and fewer car-dependent households. Building housing where people actually want to live is not just good for the pocket book of developers, it good for the community. 🙌 #RealEstateDevelopment #Townhomes #WalkableCities #MissingMiddle #HousingAffordability #Urbanism #CommunityBuilding

Affordability is more than just rent. A new 'Housing and Transportation Affordability Index' highlights what transportation professionals have long understood: the true cost of living must include both housing and transportation. 📊 Key insights: * Households in outer suburbs may save on rent, but often pay significantly more in transportation * Households living closer to transit and jobs generally spend less overall * The combined index ranges from 0.128 to 0.591 across Canadian neighborhoods — meaning in some places, over 50% of household income goes to housing and travel * In smaller cities like Thunder Bay, the median index is 0.203; in Guelph, it climbs to 0.344 * Rural PEI areas are among the most affordable; parts of Alberta rank much higher in combined cost This approach provides better guidance for infrastructure investment, land use planning, and housing strategies — not just in Halifax, but across Canada. It’s a reminder that complete communities, with access to transit, services, and jobs, are key to building livable, equitable cities. #UrbanPlanning #HousingAffordability #TransportationPlanning #CompleteCommunities #SmartGrowth #SustainableCities #CityBuilding #TransitMatters #PublicPolicy #Halifax #LivableCities

Washington state has been growing quickly over the past few decades, & with that growth, it's been steadily investing in improved transit systems. But, too often, neighborhoods around stations have become unaffordable for people with low & moderate incomes. How can we use transit-oriented development (TOD) to make neighborhoods thriving & diverse? In a new report written for the state legislature's Joint Transportation Committee, Kate Howe, Daniel Kennedy, AICP, Lydia Lo, Teddy Maginn, and I (of Urban Institute & Perkins Eastman) investigate current conditions & potential solutions: What approaches can we take to generate affordable & abundant TOD? https://lnkd.in/eneKtVmK Our research points to some concerning trends: Housing is becoming less affordable in Washington at a rapid pace. There are substantial barriers to new construction presented by the existing financing environment. And there are signs of gentrification around stations in some of the wealthier parts of the Puget Sound, Spokane, & Vancouver regions, the three areas we study. But, pulling from case studies from other parts of the US & Canada, we point to some potential approaches the state should take to encourage affordable TOD: —Expanding investment in neighborhood infrastructure around stations, which is necessary to help cities with smaller tax bases make their communities attractive for investment. —Make room for affordable housing, including by expanding investments in the affordable housing trust fund & encouraging publicly led development, such as by maximizing publicly owned land. —Increasing zoning allowances for areas near light rail stations, on the order of what is allowed in British Columbia. —Creating zoning policies that encourage small-scale retail options. Check out our full report: https://lnkd.in/eneKtVmK

🚇 Infrastructure is what drives long term real estate value. Dubai’s Metro expansion will place 55% of residents within 800m of a station by 2040 as part of the 2040 Urban Master Plan. It means accessibility, shorter commutes, and global-standard connectivity. The same dynamics that made properties near transport hubs in London, New York, and Paris outperform for decades. Dubai is just at the beginning of this story. Investors positioning themselves around these future corridors are effectively locking into one of the strongest appreciation drivers in the market. 📊 For those thinking long term, this is the type of infrastructure play that compounds value year after year. [Indicative Map not to scale]