COVID-19 Employment Recovery

Employment Recovery after COVID Is Quietly Redrawing the U.S. Real Estate Map Over the last five years, we’ve all talked about “recovery” in broad national terms, but the real story is hyper-local. A new analysis of 393 U.S. metro areas shows a striking split: while many markets surged past their pre-COVID employment levels, 93 metros still haven’t fully recovered as of August 2025. Here are the dynamics real estate investors should be watching closely: 🔵1. Recovery is highly uneven, and it matters for absorption & rent growth Employment directly fuels household formation. The map shows metros in dark blue that have exceeded pre-pandemic employment. Markets like Wildwood–The Villages, FL (127%) and St. George, UT (125%) are booming, driven by in-migration and lifestyle shifts. These markets continue to see strong leasing velocity and above-trend economic activity. 🔴2. Some metros are still struggling Lake Charles, LA (87%), Kankakee, IL (92%), and Weirton–Steubenville, WV–OH (93%) highlight how disasters and structural economic issues delay recovery. For investors, these markets require caution opportunities exist, but underwriting must reflect slower demand normalization. ⚙️ 3. Deep initial losses did not predict slow recovery Tourism-heavy metros like Las Vegas, which lost 26% of its workforce in 2020, have now surpassed 109% of pre-pandemic employment. Meanwhile, smaller markets with mild job losses, like Enid, OK, still haven’t fully recovered. This divergence underscores the importance of sector composition, migration trends, and local economic resilience, not just headline job numbers. 🏘️ What this means for investors Markets with strong employment recovery continue to enjoy: ✅Higher leasing activity ✅Stronger rent growth ✅More durable household formation ✅Faster absorption of the new supply Conversely, non-recovered metros may offer value-add or distressed opportunities, but require deeper risk assessment. In short, employment recovery is one of the clearest signals of where real estate demand is headed next. And with the recent wave of nationwide job cuts, this entire dynamic may shift once again. How do you think the landscape will evolve from here? Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), August 2025. #RealEstateInvesting #MarketResearch #Multifamily #EconomicTrends #PropTech #HousingMarket #CREInsights

Job numbers matter but not by looking at one datapoint like today’s, which is affected by the Florida storm and Boeing strikes. It’s the trend that matters and looking at a slightly bigger picture, such as the one shown in the below graph. The month-over-month changes in total nonfarm employment from January 2021 to October 2024, as shown in the latest data by the BLS and EY-Parthenon, tell a nuanced story of economic recovery and stabilization. After reaching significant peaks in 2021, when the economy rebounded from the COVID-19 downturn, employment growth has gradually declined, with notable fluctuations along the way. The chart highlights how job additions surged above 900k in mid-2021 but have since experienced a steady cooling-off period. 🔶 Key Insights: 1. Three-Month Moving Average - The orange trend line shows a decelerating three-month average in employment growth. This trend indicates a return to more moderate, sustainable employment increases after the sharp post-pandemic recovery 2. Consistent Slowdown - Starting in 2023, job growth has stabilized but at a noticeably lower level compared to 2021 and 2022 peaks 3. Current Levels - The latest data for October 2024 shows only a slight increase in nonfarm employment, potentially signaling a cautious outlook for future job growth in the near term

Reflecting on the last 5 years and focused on the Future! 2020: The Unknown The COVID-19 pandemic forced a sudden shift to remote work, transforming workplace dynamics. A study across 17 companies in 12 countries revealed that two years of working from home shaped new expectations, pushing companies to experiment with flexible work policies. Companies and candidates alike faced unprecedented uncertainty. Everyone was eager to interview, yet hiring processes couldn’t keep up with the sheer demand amidst the chaos of a global pandemic. 2021/2022: The Free-for-All Economic stimuli and the “#COVID bump” propelled hiring to new heights. Candidates fear they are missing out, and skyrocketing global pricing has created agitation. Companies raced to fill roles as money flowed freely—but when the funds dried up, so did many of the opportunities. Remote work adoption accelerated, and companies navigated balancing employee preferences with organizational goals. By early 2024, studies showed some embraced hybrid models, while others stayed traditional, reflecting diverse approaches to the evolving work landscape. 2023: The Strategic Pause Organizations paused to reassess. A 2023 report highlighted priorities like job retention, the skills gap, and managing workplace polarization. This strategic slowdown allowed companies to plan for long-term growth. Large sectors like #Pharma seemed to capitalize on available resources, yet the long-term value remained questionable. 2024: The Stability Companies focused on maintaining stability, with little appetite for risk. By 2024, office-based flexibility had risen significantly, benefiting 14% of office workers, while only 6% of shift workers saw similar improvements, sparking concerns about a two-tier workforce. The industry stood still—but there were no major moves, and no aggressive hiring. Companies focused on keeping things steady, with little appetite for risk. Strategic hiring remained on hold as businesses recalibrated. 2025: The Comeback A renewed optimism is evident. Companies are shifting from reactive hiring to strategic planning, focusing on reskilling and upskilling. Equity markets remain strong: U.S. equities closed the 2024 year on a high note, with growth sectors outperforming value sectors. The S&P 500 index experienced significant gains, supported by favorable economic indicators. Jack Azagury, Group Chief Executive for Consulting at Accenture, discusses the company's decade-long journey toward skills-based human resources. He highlights the importance of retraining employees in 2025 to meet evolving technological demands, citing Accenture's experience during the pandemic when they retrained over 100,000 employees in cloud technology. The path from the uncertainty of 2020 to the renewed optimism of 2025 highlights the power of resilience, adaptability, and strategic vision. This year stands out—brighter and better. #WorkforceStrategy #2025Opportunities #Resilience #Growth