Reasons to Install a Heat Pump

It’s Heat Pump Week, people! And this is really a story about momentum AND affordability. Heat pumps have now outsold gas furnaces in the U.S. for three straight years. That’s not a climate niche anymore—that’s the market. Why? Simple: They heat, cool, and lower monthly bills. A heat pump water heater can use 3–6x less energy than conventional systems. For households, that’s not abstract—that’s real savings. Plus, heat pumps aren’t just appliances; they’re grid assets. When paired with smart rates or virtual power plants, they can: • Shift demand off peak • Reduce the need for expensive grid upgrades • Help keep everyone’s bills lower. That’s the part that doesn’t get priced in today. Your average customer can save $30-70 per month on energy costs, and if they use oil or propane, it could be $100/month. So the question isn’t whether heat pumps scale—they already are. The question is: 👉 Do we treat them as individual upgrades… or as part of a system that drives down costs across the grid? Because if we get that right, electrification doesn’t just cut emissions—it cuts bills.

I introduced new permit reform legislation to make it easier, faster & more affordable for folks to install heat pumps in their homes & buildings. Heat pumps reduce energy costs & are key for our transition to a carbon-free energy future. SB 282 expedites permitting & installation of heat pumps by: —Requiring automated app-based permitting for heat pumps —Requiring one unified permit for heat pumps, instead of numerous —Allowing self-certification by qualified contractors —Limiting the ability of HOAs to put additional requirements on heat pumps —Standardizing permit fees for heat pumps Heat pumps are a highly efficient, zero carbon option for heating/ventilation/air conditioning (HVAC) systems & water heaters that make heating & cooling homes cleaner, safer & more affordable. Because heat pumps are so energy efficient (reducing electricity use for heating by up to 75%) the average household can save nearly $400/year in energy costs by switching. When paired with solar &/or battery systems & outfitted with demand response capabilities, heat pumps can save residents even more. Replacing fossil fuel HVAC or water pump systems with heat pumps also eliminates harmful pollutants those systems release into homes, improving the health of Californians & slashing climate emissions dramatically. Heat pumps also include air filtration capabilities that reduce indoor air pollution.

NEW RESEARCH: our new study on the Levelised Cost of Heat (LCOH), published in Cell Reports Sustainability shows that high-temperature heat pumps are the most cost-effective pathway to decarbonising low- and medium-temperature industrial heat. Our analysis with colleagues from the Danish Technological Institute and the Environmental Change Institute (ECI), University of Oxford finds that heat pumps leveraging excess heat and thermal energy storage can cut heating costs by up to 40% compared to biomass, up to 75% compared to hydrogen systems  and undercut even heat from natural gas - while reducing emissions at scale. Even under high electricity prices, they remain the most efficient and economical option for process heat up to 150°C. Massive thanks to my coauthors Wiebke Brix Markussen, Morten Herget Christensen, PhD, Benjamin Zühlsdorf and Brian Elmegaard. Full paper here: https://lnkd.in/enVbBGGp

A while back, I mentioned I was considering replacing my gas heating with a heat pump. Being a techno-economics expert (it's part of my job!), I wanted to ensure my decision made sense both financially and environmentally. Here's what I did. 1. Gathered Quotes I reached out to several suppliers. Octopus Energy provided quotes for their Cosy 6 and the Daikin Altherma heat pumps. A local supplier recommended a Panasonic Aquaera L - which looks quite nice! 2. Analysed Energy Efficiency (SCOP) Instead of just looking at the Coefficient of Performance (COP), I focused on the Seasonal Coefficient of Performance (SCOP), which represents annual efficiency across all seasons at different flow temperatures. At a 45°C flow temperature (the max I expect I'd need), here's how they compared: Cosy 6: Baseline efficiency. Daikin: ~10% more efficient than Cosy 6. Panasonic: ~10% more efficient than Daikin. 3. Considered Sound Levels Heat pumps I analysed operate at max 55-58 decibels, quieter than my current gas boiler (~65 decibels). 4. Calculated Total Cost of Ownership (TOC) Over 15 years (conservative heat pump lifespan), I factored in installation costs, operational expenses, maintenance, and potential property value increase (studies suggest a heat pump can increase home value by ~3%). Key Insights Heat Demand: My home uses about 5,000 kWh annually for heating, which is a benefit of its well-insulated, two-year-old construction. Operational Costs: Electricity - At 22p per kWh, annual running costs range from £270 to £330 across the considered heat pump models. Maintenance - With Octopus Energy, maintenance is £9/month (£109/year) for Cosy 6 and Daikin. Panasonic requires third-party maintenance, typically around £200/year. Investment Costs: Daikin & Cosy 6 - After the £7,500 UK grant, the net investment is about £2,000. Panasonic - After the £7,500 UK grant, the net investment is about £5,000. Total Ownership Costs: Daikin resulted in the lowest TOC among considered options, £8,074 over 15 years at 22p/kWh (standard tariff) or 6,676 at 15p/kWh (smart tariff). Hydrogen Boilers: I explored these as an alternative but found to be economically unfeasible due to high hydrogen costs (expected to be 3x natural gas prices) and higher operational expenses. TOC ~ £16,000 over 15 years. Environmental Impact Current Gas Emissions: Over 1,100 kg of CO₂ annually. With Heat Pump: ~80% reduction, bringing emissions down to less than 300 kg annually. Decision After weighing all factors, I'm leaning towards the Daikin heat pump with Octopus Energy. It offers a solid balance of efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and environmental benefit. Why I Share This I believe in making informed, data-driven decisions, especially when it impacts our planet. If you're considering a similar switch or just curious about the details, I'm happy to share my spreadsheet and chat more about the process. #Energy #HeatPump #RenewableEnergy #TechnoEconomics #Research

Two years ago we swapped our petrol car for an EV. Last month, a British Gas engineer came to disconnect our gas supply and take away the meter. We have now fully cut our ties with fossil fuels at home. It did not happen all at once. First the stove and oven, then the car. Finally the gas boiler, replaced by a heat pump. Each step felt manageable. Together, they add up to something significant. What prompted the final push? Partly the news. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to push wholesale gas prices higher, and the UK energy price cap is rising another 13% from July. But mainly it came down to a simple realisation: the more we electrified, the less exposed we felt to price shocks we cannot control. A new survey by Verian confirms this is not just our experience. Among EV drivers, 3 in 4 feel protected from energy price volatility. Among heat pump owners, 58% feel shielded from price increases. Among people who have not made the switch yet, those figures are far lower. I totally relate to the results of this survey. You truly see the benefits once they are part of your everyday life. https://lnkd.in/emdwGE_D

This heat pump is one example of "Common Sense HVAC", a pretty simple system that almost any contractor can install well and that delivers remarkable comfort and air quality results. This is the system in one of our AirBnbs (hence the twinkle lights), but I've done a bunch like this for clients. ⚡️ 🔌 💡 What makes it special? 1. Load Matching: It's a variable speed heat pump that can match the heating and cooling needs of the house under almost any conditions aka load matching. It's SUPER comfy despite just ok insulation and air sealing. 2. I Like Big Ducts And I Cannot Lie: Note the big duct on the left side, that's called the "return drop", the air is dropping through it before it turns and flows up through the system. Note that it's larger than the actual heat pump. This reduces the pressure inside and helps the air flow really easily aka laminar flow. 3. Great Filtration: Also note the white horizontal thing on the left, that's a large media filter. Because it and the duct are oversized, the air hits it slowly and evenly, so the filter works better. Less dusting and disease spread are two benefits. 4. Fresh Air: You can't see the two outdoor air intakes on the back, but if you note the green lights, that's my Haven Indoor Air Quality Monitor and Controller. One intake is open almost all the time, the other opens when chemicals or CO2 get too high indoors. 5. Mixing & Filtration: Because of the big duct work, the fan doesn't have to work hard to move air which saves energy and is also much quieter. You can hear this a bit at full song, it's like background ship noise on Star Trek, but most of the time it's running on low and nearly silent. Meanwhile the air is being filtered, room temperature differences are being moderated, and fresh air is being delivered 24/7/365. 6. Excellent Dehumidification: This system (a Carrier Infinity VNA8) has "reheat dehumidification" which lets it keep the house dry even when it's not warm enough to run the AC. This is critical to both comfort and keeping a house healthy. There are a bunch of other little unseen details of this system and house, but this is long enough already. I'm working on the Common Sense HVAC Guide that lays this out for both homeowners and contractors so you can get a great system installed well. Interested? Comment please! And sign up to hear how it's going and when it's ready: https://lnkd.in/gWx_h2jW

Why Oil Heat Customers Are Clean Energy's Best Opportunity While everyone chases the latest solar customers, 10 million homes are still heating with technology from 1920. That's not a problem—it's the opportunity of a lifetime. New research reveals over 10 million American homes still rely on delivered fuels like heating oil and propane. Two-thirds are concentrated in the Northeast and upper Midwest, creating clear geographic markets. The business case is compelling: These customers already pay premium energy prices. The average delivered fuel household could save $970 annually switching to heat pumps—nearly $15,000 over the equipment's lifetime. Scale that nationally and we're looking at $8 billion in annual savings. But it goes beyond cost savings. These homes face challenges heat pumps solve perfectly: indoor air quality issues from combustion systems, supply chain vulnerabilities when deliveries get delayed, and price volatility that makes budgeting impossible. Heat pumps eliminate these problems while cutting carbon emissions by 60% in the first year—equivalent to taking a gas car off the road for an entire year. Market dynamics are shifting in our favor. Seventeen states currently prohibit utilities from incentivizing fuel switching, but at least nine states are considering clean heat standards that would create dedicated funding streams. Seattle's Clean Heat Program has already retrofitted nearly 2,000 oil-heated homes with $8,000 incentives. Maine is cross-training oil installers to become heat pump contractors. Here's the insight: delivered fuel customers aren't just potential clean energy customers—they're ideal customers. They already understand heating costs money, deal with equipment maintenance, and think about energy security. The question isn't whether this market will transition. It's whether your company will be positioned to serve it. What's your strategy for reaching delivered fuel customers? Are you partnering with existing dealers or building direct relationships? #HeatPumps #CleanEnergy #EnergyTransition #MarketOpportunity

We know how tough summer heat can be. But winter can strain the grid even more. On a 100° day, shifting thermostat settings helps. But on a freezing morning, demand response is much harder, the grid faces a 70° gap between outside and inside temperatures. That’s why heat pumps matter. Unlike electric resistance heaters, which waste a ton of energy, heat pumps move heat that already exists in the air. They do a better job using far less energy, which means automatic savings and less strain on the grid. It’s like “permanent demand response.” ⚡ No opt-out ⚡ No failure rate ⚡ The reduction is baked into the system every day with the biggest savings when the temperatures are more extreme That means: ✅ Lower bills for families ✅ Less strain on the grid during extreme cold and heat ✅ Reliability built into the system, not dependent on last-minute actions Multifamily is the lowest barrier to entry, but single family homes work, too. The point is clear: we need to make energy efficiency a bigger part of the conversation if we want affordability and reliability for all Texans. 🎧 Full episode here: https://lnkd.in/gQ_aFbGt #TexasEnergy #GridReliability #HeatPumps #EnergyEfficiency

STAY WARM AND SAFE WITH ELECTRICITY HEAT PUMPS If Europe and the U.S. are serious about cutting fossil fuel use, the fastest path is already clear: renewables + heat pumps. Heat pumps turn electricity into heat with 3–5x the efficiency of gas or oil. Pair them with renewable power—solar, wind, hydro—and you decarbonize heating, which is one of the largest sources of emissions in both regions. This isn’t theoretical. The technology is mature, scalable, and already working in cold climates. Add better insulation, smart grids, and demand-response, and homes become flexible energy assets instead of liabilities. The benefits stack up: • Lower long-term energy costs • Energy independence and resilience • Fewer price shocks from gas markets • Millions of local jobs in installation and manufacturing Heating is where climate goals are won or lost. Going all-in on renewables and heat pumps isn’t radical—it’s the most practical energy strategy we have. The question isn’t if this works. It’s why we’re not moving faster. PS - gas heating can harm people with respiratory issues as it fills your home with nitrous oxide, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide.

Adopting a heat pump reduces household demand for gas by 90% and increases demand for electricity by 61%. Overall energy demand falls by 40%; net effect is a 70% fall in CO2-equivalent emissions throughout a heat pump's operational lifespan. Causal evidence using the staggered rollout of heat pump installations. https://lnkd.in/ecVu5ins