Economics

The latest reporting from the Financial Times highlights a point that energy analysts have been making for years: geopolitical shocks consistently strengthen the case for renewables, electrification and storage. Microsoft’s global vice-president for energy notes that oil and gas price spikes linked to the Middle East conflict reinforce the value of wind, solar and batteries in providing price stability. Once installed, renewables offer predictable cost profiles and reduce exposure to volatile global fuel markets. We saw this dynamic after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Europe accelerated solar deployment, heat pump uptake increased in several countries, and governments revisited questions of energy security through the lens of diversification and electrification. The underlying issue remains unchanged. Fossil fuels must continuously flow through complex global supply chains. When those flows are disrupted, prices spike and economies are exposed. Renewables, by contrast, are capital intensive upfront but deliver long term domestic supply and insulation from commodity shocks. There are short term risks. Inflation, higher interest rates and supply chain constraints can slow clean energy investment. Some governments may also respond by doubling down on gas infrastructure. The policy challenge is to avoid locking in further structural vulnerability. Energy security and climate policy are not competing objectives. In a world of recurrent geopolitical instability, they are increasingly aligned.

During my time serving in government, I saw firsthand how geopolitics can impact energy production and flows, with cascading impacts on market and macroeconomic trends.   We're already seeing this play out following the last few days in the Middle East. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered retaliatory action across the region that has disrupted energy production and transit.   The market reaction is changing quickly. Since I recorded this video on Monday, oil and gas prices have jumped further, and equities have shifted toward a risk-off move as investors price in continued escalation. Bonds sold off further, reflecting inflation fears in developed markets. Due to the segmented nature of natural gas markets, the impact of higher prices will hit regions differently, with Europe more exposed than the U.S. to elevated LNG prices.   The central question: will this remain a short-term volatility spike or evolve into a broader supply shock? The duration of the disruption and the severity of transit impacts are the core variables I'm watching.   ⬇️ Watch the full video for my latest take on what this could mean for markets.

#Batteries have become so cheap that around-the-clock solar is becoming economically viable for the first time. And this isn't just theoretical, it’s based on real world data. In 2024 alone, average battery prices fell by 40% and signs are a similar fall is occurring in 2025. These cost reductions are being driven by: ➡️ The rapid scale up of assembly plants ➡️ Intense manufacturer competition ➡️ The continued decline of LFP battery cell prices But there’s more to it than just falling prices. Batteries are also getting better: ✅ Higher round-trip efficiency ✅ Longer usable lifetimes ✅ Projects becoming cheaper to finance as the technology de-risks 20 years is now the standard design life of the battery – a big shift from just a few years ago. Taken together, this changes the economics entirely. Pairing solar with enough batteries to keep the electricity flowing though the night is no longer a distant dream – it's an economic reality. At around just $76/MWh all in, dispatchable solar is already competitive with other forms of firm generation in many markets. This analysis focuses on markets outside of China and the United States, where competitive procurement of Chinese-manufactured equipment is reshaping global storage economics. This isn’t a silver bullet. Future power systems will still rely on a diversified mix, including wind, hydro where available, gas backup, potentially nuclear, interconnection and longer-duration storage. But cheap batteries fundamentally change the role solar can play. They turn it from a purely daytime resource into a genuine round-the-clock contributor and this has profound implications for power systems, investment decisions and energy security. Data and original chart is from Ember's latest report, link below. #energy #renewables #energytransition

🆕 Following extensive consultations with our stakeholders, the European Commission has proposed a Steel Regulation that should help restore balance to the EU #steel market. WHY❓Global overcapacity, driven by non-market policies, is threatening the long-term competitiveness of European steel. In just a decade, the EU's steel trade balance has deteriorated dramatically: from a 11 million tonne surplus to a 10 million tonne deficit. Meanwhile, other economies are rapidly expanding their steel sectors. This is no longer just one country issue. WHAT❗️A new import regime, replacing the current safeguard that expires on 30 June 2026, will: ✔️ Cut the tariff-free import quota by 47%, from 33 million tonnes to 18.3 million tonnes. ✔️ Introduce a prohibitive 50% out-of-quota tariff. ✔️ Imports from all third countries - except our EEA partners - will be covered. ✔️ While importers must disclose where the steel was melted and poured. 🔜 These measures are WTO-compatible, clearly allowed under existing rules. Unlike others, the EU continues to be largely open and will transparently engage with partners under GATT Article XXVIII, offering compensation. We're committed to rules-based trade but must defend our interests. 👉 https://lnkd.in/ecmuXZSD 👉 https://lnkd.in/egGRdXpx EU Trade

♻️ Recycling, reimagined. I came across Ameru’s AI Smart Bin — and it made me realize something we rarely talk about in sustainability: We don’t fail to recycle because we don’t care. We fail because the friction is too high. This bin doesn’t just collect waste. It sees what you throw, sorts it automatically, and even gives you real-time feedback. The results? ✅ 95%+ sorting accuracy ✅ Analytics that show you how to reduce waste ✅ ROI in under 2 years 👉 Here’s the hidden insight: Let’s be honest: recycling is broken. Most of us want to recycle, but the system is designed for failure — too much friction, too many rules. The real innovation isn’t in AI or edge computing. It’s in making sustainability invisible. No guilt, no extra steps — just default behavior upgraded. 💡 Actionable thought: Whether you’re building tech, a product, or even a habit, ask yourself — how can I make the right choice feel effortless? Because effort scales linearly. But effortlessness? That scales exponentially. PS: Imagine when every trash bin becomes a data point in the circular economy. 👉 Do you think this kind of “invisible innovation” could transform how we recycle at home and at work? #GreenTech #AI #Innovation #Sustainability #CircularEconomy

Something VERY cool just happened in California and… it could be the future of energy.   On July 29, just as the sun was setting, California’s electric grid was reaching peak demand.   However, instead of ramping up fossil fuel resources, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and local utilities decided to lean on a network of thousands of home batteries.   More than 100,000 residential battery systems (made up primarily by Sunrun and Tesla customers) delivered about 535 megawatts of power to California’s grid right as demand peaked, visibly reducing net load (as shown in the graphic).   Now, this may not seem like a lot but 535 megawatts is enough to power more than half of the city of San Francisco and that can make all the difference when a grid is under stress.   This is what’s called a Virtual Power Plant or VPP. It’s a network of distributed energy resources that grid operators can call on in an emergency to provide greater resilience to our energy systems. Homeowners are compensated for the dispatch, grid operators are given another tool for reliability, and ratepayers are saved from instability. It’s a win-win-win.   Now, this was just a test to prepare for other need-based dispatches during heat waves in August and September. But it’ historic.   As homeowners add more solar and storage resources, the impact of these dispatch events will become even more profound and even more necessary. This was the second time this summer that VPPs have been dispatched in California and I expect to see even more as this technology improves.   Shout out to Sunrun, Tesla, and all companies who participated. Keep up the great work.

I’m pleased that President Trump has announced a pause on implementing some of the “reciprocal tariffs” that he announced last week.   In the short-term, tariffs can hurt economic activity. They cause costs to rise, and companies will either absorb those costs, decreasing margins, or pass them on, which will affect pricing and demand. So delaying the tariffs will avoid these short-term impacts.   But we remain in a period of high uncertainty, including the near-term rising risk of an escalating trade war with China. This uncertainty will likely dampen global investment and growth. Every investment decision is based on both risk and return. The large uncertainties in the global trading system have substantially increased risks for most companies.   BCG’s trade and geopolitics experts, put it this way: “Every company, regardless of sector or location, needs to build tariffs and the related uncertainty into its planning and operating model.” In other words, core decision making just got a lot more complicated for business leaders. You can read more from our Global Advantage team on navigating the impact of tariffs: https://lnkd.in/ert8gazK Some companies have already built geopolitical muscle, developing capabilities to anticipate and respond to policy shifts. They’ve set up teams to map out tariff impacts, consider pricing strategies, and work with suppliers to share cost burdens. They should be better positioned to confront the current turbulence and headwinds. But even the leaders of those companies are now asking harder, longer-term questions. All businesses need to understand how sustained high tariffs could affect their supply chains and manufacturing networks—and prepare in advance as much as possible.   Trade battles and higher uncertainty are not what most of us would have wished for, but that’s the world we’re in. Leaders must embed a mindset of resilience grounded in adaptiveness and agility and seek advantage and opportunity amid uncertainty.

📢 New analysis on the leaked EU Omnibus Proposal – What will be the planetary price of simplification? Can Europe combine sustainability and competitiveness? Big changes are certainly coming to the EU’s sustainability reporting landscape. A leaked draft of the European Commission’s Omnibus Proposal suggests major rollbacks in the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), and the EU Taxonomy Regulation. 💡 To help navigate these changes, our put together a comparison table—let us know if it’s useful! Here are some highlights of what’s being proposed: 🔹 𝗖𝗦𝗥𝗗 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗱 – Only companies with 1,000+ employees and €450M turnover may need to comply (previously 250 employees, €40M). This scopes out 85% of firms previously covered. 🔹 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿-𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀 𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗱 – Industry-specific ESG reporting rules may be permanently shelved. 🔹 𝗗𝘂𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗱 – Companies only need to assess direct suppliers, not the full supply chain. 🔹 𝗖𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗹 𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 – Under CSDDD, firms won’t face legal consequences for failing to meet sustainability obligations. 🔹 𝗧𝗮𝘅𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗺𝗮𝘆 𝗴𝗼 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 (not directly mentioned in the leak) – Instead of mandatory reporting, firms could opt-in, aligning with corporate lobbying efforts. ⚖️ I am wondering about if this is simplification or just plain deregulation. In addition, what will the effects be of a watered-down EU Green Deal for the bloc's sustainability leadership and for firms that have already invested in reporting? How do you see the balance between competitiveness and sustainability? Can we reduce red tape and still protect the planet? Drop your thoughts below! 👇 #CSRD #CSDDD #EU #Sustainability #ESG #SustainabilityReporting #ESGRegulation #Climate #Finance #CorporateResponsibility

I’ve been headhunting in the CPG industry for the past decade, and I’ve never seen a post-inflation market like we’re in right now. For the past three years, customers have been capitulating to price hikes by extending their budgets. But now, they’re at a breaking point. American families, already tethering on edges of their budgets, do not have the ability or the desire to expand their budget in order to accommodate increased prices. I’m sure you’d agree with this, because my family certainly does. With grocery bills through the roof, we’d rather skip on groceries and essentials rather than paying a premium right now. A couple things led us here, starting the pandemic and the post-pandemic impact on spending and savings. Secondly, the wave of AI and tech developments that caught us off guard. So, where do the companies go now? Once the “price increase” playbook is done, CPG brands can only win in both value and volume by shifting gears. In my chats with executives, I’m sensing a change in tone. To stay competitive, they’re looking for ways to shift from the post-pandemic survival mindset to a growth-focused one that accommodates the customer as well. Rather than hiking prices, the focus is now on bringing down costs, and getting to terms with consumer’s limited budgets and increasing product choices. Layoffs aren’t the only way to bring down costs. In my view, CPG companies do have the leeway to embrace data-driven innovation and efficiency to cut costs. Here are some of the ways in which companies can use AI and ML to achieve targets in 2025 and beyond: 1/ Predicting the demand: Post-pandemic behavior is tough to predict, especially in CPG markets. With AI, the companies can now leverage real-time insights from sources like point-of-sale systems, social media, and even economic indicators to see future trends more clearly. PepsiCo, uses Tastewise to track what consumers are eating across 60+ million touchpoints and making decisions that align with local preference. 2/ Inventory management: With AI-powered predictive analytics, companies are now turning inventory management into a science. Procter & Gamble’s Supply Chain 3.0 initiative is one example of this shift. 3/ Increased personalization: Leaders are tapping into geographical intelligence to connect meaningfully with audiences. Estée Lauder has a voice-enabled makeup assistant for visually impaired customers, reaching a new market while boosting brand loyalty. Bottom line is: customers are no longer meeting brands where they’re at. It’s high time that companies start caring about customers and their shrinking bottom lines. Are you excited to see your grocery bill go down in the next few months? #CPG #AI #ML #fmcg #marketing #trending

The relocation decisions of male-female couples are predominantly determined by what's best for the man's career: 1. Couples are more likely to relocate when a man is laid off than after a woman is. 2. Men's earnings increase following a couple's move to a new commuting zone, while women's earnings stay the same or decline. This in part because women spend less time working, particularly in the first year after the move when they are more likely than men to be job hunting. The gender gap persists for at least five years and is largest among couples who are in their 20s. The researchers study Germany and Sweden, and attribute the results to relocation decisions being driven by antiquated gender norms. They conclude that "households in both countries place less weight on income earned by a woman compared to a man, particularly in Germany." By Seema Jayachandran, Lea Nassal, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, Marie Paul, Heather Sarsons, and Elin Sundberg. https://lnkd.in/eHSXi5Mj