Economic Recovery Post-Pandemic

Technology has come a long way—from being a tool of convenience to becoming the driving force behind transformation. Each year, we witness remarkable advancements that reshape industries, redefine possibilities, and address challenges we never thought possible. As we step into 2025, the pace of innovation continues to accelerate, bringing with it opportunities to create a smarter, and much more resilient world.    Here are 5 transformative #TechTrends that take the spotlight in 2025: 🚩 #CustomAI: Customized AI is becoming a game-changer, allowing organizations to create bespoke solutions for their unique needs. By using domain-specific data, businesses can solve niche problems with precision, opening doors for personalized experiences and industry-specific innovations. 🚩 The Rise of Agentic AI: Generative AI is entering a transformative phase of “agentification,” evolving from task-specific tools to specialized, interconnected AI agents. Soon, we will witness the emergence of “superagents,” orchestrating interactions between multiple AI systems to enhance collaboration, efficiency, and reliability.    🚩Future-Ready Supply Chains: Powered by AI, IoT, and blockchain, supply chains are becoming more agile, sustainable, and resilient. Technologies like low-earth orbit satellites are increasing connectivity, enabling real-time tracking and visibility, while regulatory frameworks push for greener, more transparent processes. 🚩#CleanTech: As we accelerate the shift towards renewable energy, AI will play a crucial role in optimizing systems and advancing technologies like Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and nuclear fusion. This fusion of AI and clean tech promises better energy efficiency and a sustainable future. 🚩 #Cybersecurity: With AI-enhanced cyberattacks on the rise, cybersecurity is more critical than ever. AI-powered defenses, alongside advancements in Post-Quantum Cryptography, will ensure that businesses stay resilient and confident in their digital ecosystems, future-proofing their data security systems. These trends are a testament to how innovation can drive meaningful change, solve critical challenges, and empower industries to reimagine the future. As we stand on the brink of 2025, the question isn’t just about adopting these technologies but how we can harness them to create a smarter, more sustainable, and inclusive world. Surabhi Agarwal, The Economic Times

This morning, we released a preview to the press of the TechnoVision Top 5 Tech Trends to Watch in 2025. Technology is advancing at an unprecedented pace, and our teams have diligently worked to highlight the transformative technologies that we anticipate will reach a pivotal point next year. In addition to leveraging insights from our best experts across all technology domains, we conducted a global study of 1,500 top executives and 500 venture capitalists this year to gain a clear perspective on emerging technology trends. What stands out for us in 2025 is that AI (and Gen AI) are leading the pack. Their ripple effects are also accelerating advancements in adjacent domains, including robotics, cybersecurity, supply chains, and even the energy sector. Drawing from our research and the views of our top experts, here’s a brief snapshot of the Top 5 technology trends set to shape the business landscape in 2025: 🤖 Generative AI: From copilots to reasoning agents, AI systems are evolving into specialized, interconnected agentic systems, enabling autonomous and efficient decision-making. 🔐 Cybersecurity: New threats, new defenses – AI is reshaping the landscape, driving increasingly sophisticated cyber threats and equally advanced defenses to counter these new risks. 🦾 AI-Driven Robotics: Robots powered by advanced AI are blurring the lines between humans and machines, with the promise to transform entire industries. ⚛️ Energy: AI driving the Nuclear Agenda – The growing energy demands of technology in the AI era are driving major tech companies to make significant investments in nuclear energy, potentially accelerating both the deployment of nuclear projects and advancements in reactor technology. 🚚 Next-Gen AI-Assisted Supply Chains: Agile, AI-assisted, and sustainable supply chains are becoming the backbone of modern business resilience and innovation. The full study on these top 5 trends, along with other emerging technology trends, will be released in a global report available at the opening of CES in Las Vegas next year. Stay tuned! https://lnkd.in/e3SWs4iN #top5techtrends Robert (Dr Bob) Engels Marco Pereira Sally Epstein Laurent BROMET Paul Shoemaker Emmanuelle BISCHOFFE CLUZEL🌍

Alarming signals from America's lower-income consumers: Bain's November Consumer Health Index reveals a troubling six-month slide in outlook scores for households earning under $50k, the worst sustained decline outside of the COVID-19 pandemic. Even more concerning, spending intent plunged 5.6 points while savings intent hit a two-year low, suggesting this isn't just a blip but a significant shift in financial capability. The divergence is stark. Upper and middle-income consumers are holding steady, but lower-income earners are facing what appears to be a worsening labor market since last summer. For businesses heading into the critical holiday season, understanding which income segments drive your revenue has never been more important for accurate forecasting and planning. https://lnkd.in/eqhpWBBb #ConsumerTrends #MacroInsights #HolidayEconomy

Splintering.  That’s one of our key observations about the economy in our Q4 Outlook, released yesterday. Within the housing market, those who own a home have benefited from a massive wealth effect, while those who want to buy a home find themselves locked out.   Low income consumers are pulling back while high income consumers continue to spend. And in the labor market, the gradual cooling we see at the headline level is far more pronounced in particular industries. Take a look at our #ChartOfTheWeek. In the post pandemic period, we saw an explosion of jobs per worker, nearly across the board. That’s the light blue range. However, as the labor market has cooled, certain industries, particularly within manufacturing, have seen a marked slowdown. The black dots, which represent the most recent read of the data, show that, within these industries, we now see more workers than jobs. Meanwhile, areas like information (technology) and finance continue to showcase plenty of demand. A stark contrast in the economic conditions might not show up in the headline numbers, but we think it’s likely to continue to have ramifications, both for policy and for elections. Want to learn more? You can find a link to our Q4 Outlook in the comments section below.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has strongly signaled that they won’t cut the Federal Funds Rate until September at the earliest, and likely only once in 2025 (unless the employment data shows significant deterioration). One reason for this is the FOMC is quite worried about sharp increases in inflation expectations exhibited by both consumers and businesses. Two charts below show these dynamics. Thoughts: •The top chart shows the median point prediction for the year-over-year inflation rate one year from now from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (https://lnkd.in/g4Tsdtej). As recently as November, inflation expectations were back to 3%, which was the stable, pre-COVID level. Since then, inflation expectations have surged to 4.79% as of April. We know the culprit: tariffs. •The bottom chart shows the expected change in prices paid over the next 12 months for inputs from the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey (https://lnkd.in/gvHt3VQa), with data through May. While May’s reading came down to 6.75% from 8.38% in April (likely due to the China tariff pause), we can again see a sharp increase in inflation expectations that can only be due to one thing: tariffs. •Why do inflation expectations matter? In the FOMC’s mind, inflation expectations can turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. For example, if firms expect to pay more for inputs, it makes it easier for suppliers to raise prices. While I think inflation expectations are often incorrectly predicted (e.g., consumers in 2022 were expecting 8% inflation over the next year, something that certainly didn’t come to pass), the FOMC gives these data weight in their decisions on the Federal Funds rate. Implication: the impact that tariffs have had on inflation expectations this time around, relative to 2018 and 2019, has been far more pronounced. Such increased expectations make the FOMC less likely to cut interest rates before multiple additional months of CPI, PPI, and PCE data are available (barring a sharp deterioration of the job market). I'll be curious if the ruling of the Reciprocal and Trafficking tariffs as unconstitutional has any effect. #economics #markets #supplychain #ecommerce #freight

Fixing Agriculture’s Core Issue: Market Linkage and Policy Bias!! Farmers feed the world, yet many struggle to access markets that fairly value their produce. This market linkage gap, combined with policies prioritizing cheap food for consumers, traps farmers in poverty, threatens food security, and stifles agricultural progress. With smallholders producing 70% of global food, solving this is urgent. Why It Matters Poor market access costs farmers billions—40% of produce in sub-Saharan Africa alone rots before reaching buyers. Meanwhile, policies like price caps and subsidies keep basic commodities like grains and rice affordable for consumers but depress farmgate prices, penalizing farmers. This dual challenge demands bold solutions. Key Barriers Weak Infrastructure: Poor roads and storage cause massive post-harvest losses. Information Gaps: Farmers lack real-time market data, leaving them vulnerable to exploitative value chains. Limited Networks: Smallholders miss out on large markets due to scale and connections. Financial Constraints: No credit means no investment in quality or technology. Policy Bias: Price controls and consumer-focused subsidies undervalue farmers’ work, as seen in systems like India’s MSP, which often favor select crops. Solutions That Work Tech Platforms: Apps today connect farmers to buyers, boosting incomes by 30%. Better Infrastructure: Public-private investments in roads and cold chains cut losses. Cooperatives: Models like Kenya’s Tea Agency show collective bargaining unlocks global markets. Value Addition: Training in processing or certifications opens premium markets. Fair Policies: Shift from price controls to income support and market diversification to balance consumer needs with farmer livelihoods. The Way Forward Low consumer prices shouldn’t come at farmers’ expense. Bridging market gaps and reforming biased policies can slash waste, boost incomes, and ensure resilient food systems. The impact—thriving farmers, stronger economies, and sustainable agriculture—is worth fighting for. Join the Conversation What’s working in your region to improve market access or fix policy imbalances? Share your ideas below—let’s build a fairer future for agriculture.

BPOs built a $300B empires on a simple promise: "Just outsource it." That era is ending—fast. The Market Today: → $300B total size, racing to $525B by 2030 → Front office: $100B (support, 15-20% margins) → Back office: $200B (finance, IT, data, 20-25% margins) → Built entirely on human labor arbitrage But AI is unbundling the entire stack. Front Office Disruption: → Decagon, Parloa, PolyAI AI support (80%+ resolution) → Salient automating lending operations → Avoca handling home services calls → Better speed, higher satisfaction, zero wait times Back Office Revolution: → Loop replacing freight-audit players → Juniper slashing medical billing denials by 80% → AI handling finance, IT help desk, data reconciliation → 24/7 operations, no time zones, minimal errors The Giants Are Spending Big—to stay relevant: → Accenture: 69k staff in AI, $3B AI investment → TCS: 600k workforce, still built on human pyramids → Infosys: 60%+ "digital" revenue but growth stalling → Wipro/Cognizant: Pledging $1B+ for AI transformation → Genpact: $4.8B revenue, racing to "Data-Tech-AI" The Brutal Reality: Traditional BPOs make money marking up human labor by 20-30%. AI collapses that entire model. Winners Will: → Build AI-first operations for 24/7 coverage → Create product-based revenue streams → Focus on orchestration, not labor → Demonstrate 2-3x better performance Losers Will: → Protect legacy margins → Keep scaling human pyramids → Miss the productization wave → Lose to AI-native competitors Look at Your Operation: → Still paying per head for data entry? → Relying on shift handovers across time zones? → Accepting 70-80% accuracy as "good enough"? The $300B BPO empire wasn't built on efficiency. It was built on labor arbitrage. AI-based technologies will eliminate that advantage. Have you started replacing BPO functions with AI? In 2025, "Just outsource it" becomes "Just automate it." - Images from a16z research who are aggressively funding companies to disrupt this space. Link in the comments.

As we close out 2025, I’ve been reflecting on the seismic shifts that defined industry, and what they signal for the future. 2025 was a year of compressed transformation. Persistent volatility in energy prices, supply chains, and labor markets accelerated adoption of IoT, AI, edge computing, and 5G. These technologies are no longer optional, they’re the backbone of modern industrial ecosystems. Analysts confirm this trajectory: 🔹 Deloitte reports that 80% of manufacturing executives plan to allocate 20% or more of their improvement budgets to smart manufacturing initiatives, prioritizing real-time visibility and predictive maintenance.  🔹 McKinsey & Company finds that 88% of companies now use AI in at least one function, but scaling remains a challenge - high performers redesign workflows to unlock growth and innovation.  🔹 Market forecasts show industrial automation growing from $206B in 2024 to $378B by 2030 (10.8% CAGR), driven by Industry 4.0, and AI integration.  🔹 Edge computing is surging too, expected to reach $45B by 2033, enabling low-latency analytics and predictive quality control. What does this mean for our industry? Automation is becoming open, software-defined, and decoupled from proprietary hardware, creating a foundation for adaptability, sustainability, and resilience. AI is moving from pilot projects to embedded intelligence, powering predictive maintenance, autonomous operations, and sustainability gains. At Schneider Electric, we see this every day: open, software-defined automation unlocks innovation through openness, interoperability, and flexibility, enabling manufacturers to scale faster and respond dynamically to market shifts. Looking ahead: AI will not just augment operations, it will redefine competitive advantage. From generative design to autonomous workflows, the next wave of industrial transformation is already here. 👉 What are your reflections on 2025, and where do you see the biggest opportunities in 2026 and beyond?  

🌍 Building Resilient and Sustainable Health Systems in Europe 🌍 Today, I'm excited to share insights from an article in The Lancet Regional Health which I had the privilege to author with WHO Regional Office for Europe Regional Director Hans Kluge, highlighting the need for transformative work in health systems across the WHO European Region. Health systems are facing unprecedented pressures, from demographic shifts to economic and environmental challenges. The COVID-19 pandemic has further underscored the need for robust, adaptable health systems. In response, a new vision was adopted by all 53 countries in the WHO European Region during the 74th Regional Committee, aiming to make health systems more sustainable and resilient. The vision is anchored around the trust that people are able to receive the right care at the right time, from the right person without financial hardship. Key points from the framework include: Primary Healthcare: Reorienting health systems towards primary care, especially for ageing populations. Community-Based Interventions: Integrating health and long-term care systems, addressing mental health, and involving local authorities. Health Workforce: Focusing on caring for and optimizing the contributions of health workers. Technology and Digitalization: Investing in high-end technologies while bridging the digital literacy gap. Financial Protection: Strengthening mechanisms to prevent out-of-pocket expenses from pushing people into poverty. Emergency Preparedness and Climate Adaptation: Enhancing health systems' ability to respond to emergencies and adapt to climate change. This comprehensive approach requires collective effort, trust, and strategic investment. Let's continue to advocate for and work towards resilient health systems that ensure well-being for all. 💪🏥 HealthSystems #WHO #PublicHealth #Sustainability #Resilience #GlobalHealth Thank you to all colleagues across the house, to our fantastic WHO representatives in countries, for being behind this transformative work to support countries across and beyond our region. Grateful for all we achieved together in 2024 and looking forward to continuing our work in 2025. Tamas Evetovits Melitta Jakab Tomas Zapata Ledia Lazëri David Novillo Ortiz, PhD JOAO BREDA Christine Brown Rasmus Prior Gjesing Govin Permanand Ramy Srour Gauden Galea Robb Butler Ihor Perehinets

Retail Sales Miss Forecasts as Consumers Pull Back Retail spending slowed sharply in September, offering another sign that the consumer engine of the economy may be losing some steam. Sales at retailers—including gas stations and restaurants—rose just 0.2% on the month, while the control-group measure that feeds into GDP slipped 0.1%. With inflation still firm, the real pace of spending likely fell into negative territory despite the late-summer lift from back-to-school shopping. Whether this marks the beginning of a broader downshift is unclear, but volatility in spending patterns has become a defining feature of the post-tariff environment. Many households moved purchases forward over the summer to get ahead of higher tariffs, leaving September softer. And slowing income growth is beginning to pinch, particularly for low- and middle-income consumers who live paycheck to paycheck. A separate report showed producer prices holding steady, with headline PPI up 0.3% and the core gauge rising 0.1%, underscoring inflation’s underlying firmness. For the Federal Reserve, the mixed signals complicate an already difficult decision. The softer spending data tilts slightly toward a December rate cut, giving doves an edge. But last week’s surprisingly strong jobs report keeps the debate wide open. With key releases delayed, policymakers may be heading into one of the most contentious meetings in recent memory—flying with less data and more uncertainty.