Wine Market Trends

The Truth About Premiumisation Premiumisation is often spoken about as if it were a conscious strategy. Many assume the industry decided to move upmarket to chase higher margins or new consumers. In reality, it unfolded through necessity. Costs increased faster than prices in almost every region, and the business model that once supported affordable wine began to break down. Global data tell the story clearly. The OIV reports that world wine consumption fell from around 250 million hectolitres in 2018 to 237 million in 2023, the lowest level in six decades. Yet total value rose by more than fifteen percent. The reason sits in the cost base. Across France, the United States and Australia, vineyard labour has increased by up to forty percent over five years. Bottle glass has risen by about one-third since 2019. Ocean freight from Adelaide or Oakland to key ports more than doubled through the pandemic, and even cardboard and cork now shape whether a wine is viable. By the time distribution and retail margins are met, sub-twelve-dollar wine often returns little or nothing to the producer. Consumers have not radically changed their behaviour. Most are staying with the wines they already enjoy as those wines climb in price. A bottle that cost fifteen dollars in 2019 may now be twenty-two, and buyers remain loyal because trust outweighs risk. IWSR data show that in the United States, sales below ten dollars have declined by about twenty percent in five years, while those between fifteen and thirty dollars have grown by a similar proportion. Comparable trends appear in the United Kingdom, France and Australia. What looks like aspiration is often simple continuity. At the high end, scarcity has occasionally distorted value. Burgundy’s 2021 frost cut yields by up to eighty percent and raised release prices by roughly a quarter. By 2024, Liv-ex reported the Burgundy 150 Index nearly twenty percent lower than its peak. Consumers recognise quality and provenance, yet they also sense when scarcity becomes performance. Today, the sustainable centre of global wine sits roughly between US $20 and US $100 a bottle, depending on region and route to market. Below that level, cost inflation undermines viability. Above it, demand becomes fragile. Within this range, producers can pay fair wages, invest in vineyards, manage environmental impact and still deliver wine that justifies its price. This is where value and sustainability now align. Premiumisation, when understood through its real causes, reflects the recalibration of wine’s economics to match the modern cost of farming, making and moving wine responsibly. It challenges producers to prove that every additional dollar carries substance. The truth about premiumisation is that it has revealed what genuine value looks like in wine today, and it asks the industry to keep earning that trust, bottle by bottle. #WineIndustry #Premiumisation #GlobalWine #ProducerEconomics #Sustainability #WineBusiness

Fine Wine 2025: Reset or Renaissance? Fine wine has always lived a double life: a bottle to be enjoyed and a collectible asset. Yet today it finds itself in transition. Global wine production has fallen to its lowest level since 1961 (225.8 million hl in 2024), consumption has dropped to 214 million hl (–3.3%), and even the luxury sector shows signs of strain (–3.3% according to the Knight Frank Index). The boom of 2020–2022, fuelled by the pandemic and abundant liquidity, pushed Champagne and Burgundy to historic highs. But since 2023 the tide has turned: the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 is down –4.9% YTD, the Fine Wine 50 (Bordeaux Premier Cru) has slipped –7.4%, and the Burgundy 150 has fallen by a dramatic –30.2% over two years. Italy remains comparatively resilient (–3.0% YTD, +12.2% over five years). This correction has reshaped buying behaviour. Collectors are no longer chasing young vintages to sit on for decades; instead, they are turning to mature, ready-to-drink wines, often purchased at 30–50% discounts from the 2022 peak. The auction market confirms the trend: in 2024, Sotheby’s achieved $114 million across 61 sales and 21,000 lots, but with unprecedented selectivity by vintage, format and provenance. The future of fine wine will not be defined by blind speculation, but by experience. It is returning to what it has always been: a cultural and identity-driven good, grounded in authenticity, traceability and the pleasure of drinking. In a market that is normalising, renaissance will come not from rising charts alone, but from delivering real, tangible value.

2025 Was Not a Recovery Year for Wine. It Was a Necessary Reset. Three points stood out: 1. Wine consumption continued to decline. People are drinking less frequently, at higher price points. This reflects lasting changes in how consumers think about alcohol, health, and discretionary spending. 2. Pricing power became a tale of two narratives. Only the very high end of the market was able to hold and grow pricing power (DRC, Leroy, etc). Brands that relied solely on marketing or past momentum struggled as buyers became more selective. 3. A new guard is emerging in Burgundy. A younger generation of producers is gaining attention by focusing on regenerative farming, lower yields, and restrained winemaking. These wines are finding support not through massive marketing budgets, but through credibility and authentic storytelling. The takeaway is simple. The wine market is moving toward a more selective future. Producers and investors who adapt to this reality will be better positioned going forward. I discuss these trends in more detail and outline what they mean for 2026 in the full article (in comments).

In a recent Forbes interview with Rachel King, Brian Ward of Artory/Winston shared insights into how our $20 million fund, The Cask100 Fund, is pioneering a shift in wine and whisky investment. Leveraging extensive data and exceptional domain expertise, #Cask100 is focusing on categories with higher potential growth and returns. As the landscape of investment in fine wine and whisky evolves, blue-chip wines are no longer the golden ticket. Exciting opportunities in emerging categories such as grower champagnes, aged bourbon, and rare whiskies are becoming the new frontier in wine and whisky investment. Key Takeaways: 🔍 Blue-chip wines and whiskies are stable investments but may offer lower returns when compared to emerging categories. 🔍 The Cask100 Fund is tapping into grower champagnes, aged bourbon, Caribbean rum, Irish whiskey, and pre-Prohibition whiskey to create a robust, diversified portfolio. 🔍 The fund combines boots-on-the-ground knowledge with extensive auction data for well-informed investment strategies. 🔍 Diversification and blockchain technology are critical in mitigating risks and enhancing transparency. Learn more below about how Artory/Winston's Cask100 Fund is innovating wine and whisky investments and why now is the perfect time to explore these emerging opportunities. #Wine #Whiskey #EmergingMarkets #Cask100 #ArtoryWinston #GrowerChampagne #AgedBourbon #RareSpirits

Markets may feel flat at a headline level, but look under the surface and there are still big moves happening 📊 We recently published our list of the Top 10 Best-Performing Fine Wines of 2025 (so far), comparing the average transaction price in 2025 versus 2024, based on real trades across the wine market. Some of the price gains are certainly eye-catching, especially given the challenging market conditions. 🏆 Rhône takes top spot – M. Chapoutier Le Pavillon 2008 is up almost 40% this year with the average price jumping from £917 to £1,271. 🇪🇸 Valbuena 2016 from Vega Sicilia climbs 29% – proving Spain still has global pull. 🍷 Clos Apalta 2016 +26% – Chile crashing the party. 📈 Champagne pops – Larmandier-Bernier up 22.6% with volumes up 329%. 🔥 Les Carmes 2022 surges – +22% with trading volume up 871% vs 2024. £1,302 per 12 in 2025 versus an average of £1,067 per 12 in 2024. Plenty of Burgundy, Bordeaux and Rhône names feature too, but the story here is broader: Diversified portfolios are winning, and quality still performs when paired with data and access. Full article and rankings here: 👉 https://lnkd.in/eZpNB8W8 #FineWine #WineInvestment #CultX #WineMarket #Rhône #Burgundy #Bordeaux #DiversifiedPortfolio

Fine wine is quietly reemerging. As we highlighted in previous #WineCap reports, early signs of stability began to appear in key markets such as #Champagne and #Italy, with broader indices showing a general flattening. Many regions now appear to have reached their respective price floors, and while we shouldn’t expect sudden spikes, the path ahead is one of gradual recovery. The downturn of the past two years, while challenging, has reinforced the resilience of #FineWine as an asset. Even during periods of correction, selective opportunities existed – and still do – for those paying close attention. Our primary research among wealth managers in both the US and UK confirms that demand for fine wine as an alternative asset continues to rise. For collectors and investors, the message is clear: monitor the market, be selective, and take advantage of value as it emerges. Read WineCap 's newly released #Q3 Fine Wine Report for the latest breakdown of market trends and opportunities: https://lnkd.in/e3b4H7BA #FineWine #WineInvestment #Bordeaux #InvestmentTrends #Q32025Report

2025 Retrospective: Why Billionaires Are Investing in Agriculture and How Wine Became a Strategy Throughout 2025, one thing became very clear to me. When global high net worth investors talk about agriculture, they are no longer talking only about production. They are talking about real assets, capital protection, and long term value creation. This is exactly where wineries come in. Not as a hobby. Not as a romantic pursuit. But as a financial strategy. We saw this with Joe Tsai, co founder of Alibaba, investing in vineyards in Burgundy. We saw American billionaires expanding their positions in Napa and Sonoma. We saw groups such as LVMH treating wine as a core asset of the global luxury ecosystem, including their long standing presence in Brazil through Chandon. Brazil deserves special mention. Brazilian sparkling wines have been winning major international awards and are now ranked among the best in the world. This is not coincidence. It is agriculture executed with technology, terroir, discipline, and professional management. We also saw this movement among Brazilian entrepreneurs. André Esteves, founder of BTG Pactual, structured relevant investments in European wineries. Rubens Menin invested heavily in Portugal’s Douro Valley, combining wine, tourism, and long term financial returns. When I look at all these cases, the rationale is very clear and it is exactly the same logic that guides my work at Grupo Lacer. Capital protection through real and scarce assets. Long term appreciation of agricultural land. Portfolio diversification beyond traditional financial markets. Optionality through production, inventory, branding, and hospitality. Lifestyle assets that also generate business, relationships, and legacy. That is why, at Grupo Lacer, we structure credit operations that allow investors to access wineries through bonds. The logic is straightforward. In the base scenario, investors receive yield and predictability. In the downside scenario, in the event of default, the bondholder has the right to acquire the land and the winery at approximately 30 percent of its face value. In other words, the worst case outcome is becoming the owner of a productive, tangible, and valuable agricultural asset. Most importantly, this execution does not depend on lengthy legal disputes. The process is direct, structured, and executed efficiently through Grupo Lacer, without the need to enter court proceedings. The message of 2025 is very clear. Agriculture is a real asset. A well structured real asset is intelligent capital protection. This is not a passing trend. It is a structural shift. Bloomberg 👇 Billionaires Are Buying Vineyards as Trophy Assets and Inflation Hedges https://lnkd.in/e3SeeeDE

The fine wine markets are currently a tale of two charts The chart with the white background ("list data") shows that the percentage of fine wines falling in list price declined for the fifth quarter in a row in Q2 2025, whilst the percentage remaining the same or rising continued to increase.* The chart with the black background ("trade data") shows that wines that actually traded did so at a lower price than nine months ago.** Of these trades, Burgundy and Tuscany appear to be performing the best -- with 28% of wines trading higher than the 9 month average What does this mean? List prices are the price at which the wines are listed for sale, not the price that they were actually sold for. Trade prices are the prices at which the wines were actually sold. This divergence shows that sellers (list prices) are holding firm or even edging higher, but actual executed trades are clearing lower. This is a classic bid-ask spread widening: sellers are reluctant to cut, buyers are only transacting at discounts. For investors, patience is needed: the gap between what sellers want and what buyers will pay must eventually converge. The question is in which direction will this happen. In this environment, investment strategies focused on relative value / regional rotation could outperform the wider wine markets. This is the approach we have pursued at WineFi 🍷 since the beginning of the bear market. -- Transaction data taken from Liv-ex. *We define fine wine as being priced at £60+ per 75cl bottle. **Only a fraction of "investment-grade" wine markets trade in any given quarter.

New Insights for Wineries The 2025 State of Winery Health Report from InnoVint has just been released, and it’s one of the most comprehensive looks at the current state of our industry. As an accountant, what stood out most to me was the financial section, and it raises both opportunities and concerns. While 90% of wineries say they calculate production costs, only 61% of respondents personally know the final COGS per wine. Even more concerning, only 38% know their per-product profit margins. This gap between pricing confidence and profitability clarity is what the report calls the profitability gap, and it’s one of the biggest challenges facing wineries today. Beyond finance, the report also highlights: ✅ Healthy wineries embrace technology and data. ✅ Stronger team culture leads to lower turnover and better results. ✅ Community engagement makes wineries 3x more likely to be profitable. The report also outlines 5 key practices of profitable wineries: 1️⃣ Know, and Protect, Your Margins 2️⃣ Run an Operationally Disciplined Ship 3️⃣ Use Technology to Create Leverage 4️⃣ Build a Resilient Team Culture 5️⃣ Root Yourself in Community At Protea Financial, we help wineries put these principles into practice, especially when it comes to building financial discipline and ensuring you know your margins with confidence. Bottom line: This is a fantastic report, but it also shows why good partners, good technology, and community engagement are essential for winery success in 2025 and beyond. #accountingandaccountants #winebusiness #wineindustry #smallbusiness