Real Estate Market Segmentation

💥 New homes are now CHEAPER than resale homes 💥   This marks a significant inflection point in the housing market, reversing the historical trend where new construction commanded a premium—often as much as 20% more than existing properties. The shift, which began during the pandemic with a narrowing of the price spread, has fully materialized over the past three months.   While new home prices can be influenced by changes in product offerings or location, our Zonda data, builder survey, and NewHomeSource.com trends all confirm that real price cuts are also occurring in the new home space.   Beyond the raw data, several additional factors make new homes even more compelling for buyers: - Lower insurance premiums. New homes typically incur lower insurance costs compared to existing properties due to modern building codes and materials. - Reduced maintenance. New construction offers a maintenance-free or lower-maintenance lifestyle, saving homeowners time and money on immediate repairs and upgrades compared to the resale market. - Enhanced energy efficiency. New homes are often more energy-efficient than existing homes, leading to lower utility bills and a reduced overall cost of living. - Attractive builder incentives. Builders continue to offer incentives (e.g. buydowns or design credits), providing extra perks to buyers that can further offset costs. Zonda Sarah Bonnarens Alexander Edelman Tim Sullivan Bryan Glasshagel Evan F. #housing #realestate #newhomes

This map will likely spark debate, and that’s exactly why it matters. It shows the major ethnolinguistic and cultural groups across Africa, a reminder that the continent’s borders, drawn in European boardrooms, often ignore what’s true on the ground. From a business and development perspective, this is critical. Because you’re not selling into countries. You’re engaging with communities. Understanding regional identities, like the Hausa influence across West Africa, or how Swahili unites parts of the East, can make or break your market entry strategy. This map reminds us: ✅ Africa is not one place. ✅ Culture matters more than just translation. ✅ Success requires local knowledge and humility. Now, to be clear, I see some questionable depictions here. Not everything on this map is perfectly accurate. And I’m sure the comments will be lively (feel free to jump in). But from my perspective, much of what’s shown reflects real social and cultural dynamics that we often overlook in boardrooms and market reports. Doing business in Africa? Start by knowing who you're doing business with, not just where. #AfricaBusiness #CulturalIntelligence #MarketEntry #EthnolinguisticAfrica #DevelopmentMatters #MrExportToAfrica #AmplifySales #DoingBusinessInAfrica #LocalizationNotJustTranslation

There's more and more research showing that investments in affordable and attainable housing are win/wins for renters and for investors. The latest comes from a paper by my friend Greg MacKinnon at PREA. Here's what it shows: 1) You can do good for renters and for investors. Greg found a strong correlation between investment returns and rent levels among apartments in the NCREIF database. Lower-priced apartments "produced higher average growth in the long term along with higher average returns to investors." Note: Greg's research is based on what we'd generally call "lower case a" affordable housing -- not specifics to tax credits alone. Greg defined "affordable" as having an average rent below 30% of income for someone making 80% of AMI. 2) Lower-priced rentals see less volatility -- both on the upside and the downside. "NOI per unit for the most affordable properties is much less volatile over time and tends to rise at a slow, steady pace." Greg noted that higher-priced apartments outperformed in upswing cycles like 2010-2012 and 2021-1H'23. But the higher tier rentals "were also prone to pullbacks, such as during 2008, 2020, and the most recent four quarters." Put another way: There's a correlation between rent levels and stability of investment returns. 3) Affordability wins over the long haul More affordable apartments generate lower NOI per unit, but that was offset by materially less volatility. In 2009, for example, "the most-affordable properties lost the least in the downturn but did not gain as much in the upswing. This is consistent with the typical argument that affordable housing is less exposed to the economic cycle." If you time it well, higher-tier apartments can generate higher returns. But Greg's saying that over the longer haul, lower-tier apartments are the turtle that outlasts the hare. "Over the 26-year time period, the most affordable properties outperformed the least affordable by 239 basis points per year." -- Possible caveats and implications -- The study might be influenced by the higher-quality nature of properties in the NCREIF database. Indeed, Greg told me there's little difference in average building age between NCREIF's most and least affordable apartments (both 16-18 years). That matters because older properties tend to have more deferred maintenance. That drives up costs AND can make a property less appealing to renters if not resolved -- which, in turn, impacts NOI. So, to me, this makes the case for newer-vintage attainable and affordable housing -- newer and/or nicer apartments at price points that compete with older, inferior properties. For full disclosure: I love this data because it matches what we're trying to do at Madera Residential (and we're not the only ones, of course) -- investing in ground-up construction at middle-income price points via creative partnerships. There's still a need for more moderately priced rentals to serve America's "missing middle." #affordablehousing

A few days ago, someone asked me over coffee: “Atul, with all this news about Trump’s new tariffs, should I pause my plan to buy a home?” That question stuck with me. Because for most middle-class families in India, housing isn’t just an asset. It’s the biggest social security we have. It’s about security, dignity, and building roots for the next generation. So, I dug deep to understand what these global trade shifts mean for homebuyers, especially those eyeing homes between ₹15 and ₹45 lakh. The good news is- it’s not all gloom. Here’s how the numbers stack up based on my analysis: -Under ₹15 lakh: Subsidies cut EMIs by ₹2,000/month, saving families ₹24,000 a year. -₹15–25 lakh: Supply shifts may cut costs (like a modular kitchen dropping 10%), saving families ₹20,000. -₹25–45 lakh: Rising salaries in manufacturing and auto could boost home loans by ₹5–6 lakh, letting families aim bigger. In short, tariffs may shake up global trade, but they won’t shake India’s housing dream. Government support for entry-level homes, along with fresh opportunities in manufacturing and supply chains, keeps the outlook positive. Even if some exports slow down, strong local demand and growing industries will help affordable housing stay steady. In my view, despite the noise, this could actually be the moment to unlock that dream. And affordable housing? Stronger than ever. So the real question isn’t “Should I wait?” It’s “Why wait at all?” What do you think this means for affordable home buyers? Swipe through for my full breakdown of tariff implications.   #AffordableHousing #TrumpTariffs #Homeownership #HousingForAll

99% of commercial real estate investments fail before they even begin. Why? Because investors buy into hype instead of hard data. You’re making million-dollar decisions based on gut feelings instead of real market analysis. And that’s costing you opportunities, money, and long-term returns. Here’s how to evaluate a CRE location the right way: 1. Infrastructure Access If your site lacks essential utilities, road access, or high-speed internet, your investment is already in trouble. Infrastructure isn’t just about convenience—it determines functionality, costs, and tenant demand. 2. Demographic Trends Who lives, works, and spends money in this area? Are young professionals moving in, or is the population aging out? Growth patterns dictate demand for office space, retail, and multifamily developments. 3. Urban Development Plans Is the city investing in new roads, transit, or commercial hubs? If you’re not aligned with future zoning and infrastructure expansion, you’re betting on the wrong horse. 4. Taxes and Incentives The tax burden can make or break an investment. Smart investors look for opportunity zones, tax abatements, and local economic incentives that maximize profitability. 5. Transportation and Connectivity Logistics hubs, highway access, and commuter routes define commercial success. If it’s hard to reach, tenants and customers won’t come. 6. Growing Industry Sectors Don’t invest in yesterday’s economy. Tech, logistics, life sciences, and remote work hubs are shaping the future of CRE. Know where demand is rising before you buy. 7. Competition and Comparable Sales Who’s already there, and what are they paying? If your site is surrounded by struggling retail or underperforming offices, reconsider. Competitive positioning is everything. 8. Land and Development Costs The sticker price isn’t the full price. Permits, labor costs, and construction overruns kill deals. Always model your true cost per square foot—before you commit. 9. Redevelopment or Repurposing Potential Adaptive reuse is the future. If demand shifts, can your asset pivot? A strong investment survives economic cycles by evolving with the market. 10. Long-Term Investment Viability Five years from now, will this location still be in demand? If you can’t answer that confidently, you’re gambling—not investing. Smart investors don’t just buy property—they buy future demand. Before you make your next move, make sure the location works for you, not against you. 📩 DM me if you want a deep-dive analysis on your next CRE opportunity. #commercial #realestate #investors

New construction set a new record in NYC: 18,618 rentals from 360 new developments entered the market in 2025 — the highest since 2016. Despite rising supply, the median asking rent rose 8.2% year-over-year to $3,950 in February, and inventory fell 5.5%. What are we missing? We need more homes to absorb unmet demand. Even with one of the strongest increases in supply in 10 years, renters faced intense competition, with the average listing in NYC receiving 52.1% more inquiries than in February 2019, StreetEasy data shows. Renters seeking 2+ bedrooms faced greater challenges, with competition up more than twofold (+110.4%). This is largely due to a 38.8% drop in inventory of these larger apartments from its pre-pandemic level, a significant challenge for families or renters looking to share costs with roommates. While the housing shortage impacts all neighborhoods, Manhattan is feeling it most acutely. The borough’s inventory fell 3.5% in February — marking the 24th consecutive month of year-over-year declines and the longest streak of consecutive declines ever recorded. Manhattan sat out on NYC’s rental development boom. New construction made up less than 3% of the borough’s new listing inventory, compared to 13% in Brooklyn and 12% in Queens. With limited new units, renters in Manhattan have been staying put or competing for existing units in prewar properties, pushing down vacancy rates. Despite soaring new supply, the city’s housing shortage remains significant. As supply catches up, the market could eventually find a new balance, but we may not see that anytime soon. As a result, rent growth is poised to accelerate this year amid low vacancy rates and robust demand, one of the five 2026 predictions (https://lnkd.in/eN6Gj62T). Read the latest StreetEasy market report here:  https://lnkd.in/eAEh4TeU #nyc #multifamily #housing

If I was running ABM at a fast-growing security company (like Wiz, Snyk, or Netskope), here's how I'd avoid wasting money on bad-fit accounts. 👇 AI Segmentation. Most companies segment by industry. They say something like: "We target Tech, Retail, and Hospitality companies with 1,000+ employees." Motel 6 and Airbnb show why this breaks. Same firmographic profiles. But very different business situations, needs, and priorities when it comes to information security (or any tech purchase). You wouldn't sell to them the same way. AI Segmentation helps you uncover and target the highest value segments for your business, beyond basic industries. Here's how I would do this for a security company: 1.) Segment on business situation (not industry). -- Analyze your best customers (high NRR, high ACV). -- Group by specific situations that align to your value prop. e.g. Security Maturity Level, Security Use Cases, Compliance Sensitivity, etc.  -- Find the *natural* clusters based on value, not generic industry labels. 2.) Identify segments with AI. -- Use Keyplay AI to categorize every account in your market. -- Backtest segments against historical data to find which segments have the highest NDR, ACV, and Win Rates. -- Find new ICPs, outside generic vertical groups. 3.) Action the data -- Create ABM plays at intersections with highest win rates. -- Develop content specific to each segment combination (e.g., "Cloud Security for Advanced DevSecOps Teams in Retail") -- Refine your segmentation models as you grow. This process can reduce non-ICP Spend (waste) by 20-30% and help you find thousands of net new target accounts. Don't just throw your budget at industries. Find the segments where your solution resonates most, where you win often, win fast, and win big. That's strategic segmentation. p.s. If you want me and my team to kick-start this process for you, we're offering a free strategic segmentation analysis to CMOs at SaaS security companies with >$20M ARR. Get your report here --> https://lnkd.in/gMezS4Zk #ABM #ICP

The land market just sent us a warning signal. 28% of brokers report strong demand. Down from 76% one year ago. That's not a correction. That's a cliff. 𝐁𝐮𝐭 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞'𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠: - This might not even be the main event. - The 18.6-year real estate cycle has predicted major market turns for over 200 years. - Last major peak? 2006-2007. Add 18.6 years? 2024-2025. 𝐖𝐞'𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐨𝐰. But 2025's land market cooling could be like 2005's subprime cracks - Real problems. Just not the earthquake yet. 2026 might be when land prices truly crater. 𝐇𝐞𝐫𝐞'𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐲: • Builder margins compressing faster than expected • 80% of brokers seeing deal cancellations • Lot prices still UP 6% while home prices DOWN 1% • Construction starts lagging 12-18 months behind land sales The math doesn't work anymore. Sellers anchored to peak pricing. Buyers facing reality. Something's got to give. 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐬𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐬 𝐚𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝: 1. This IS the correction (recovery by 2026) 2. This is just the warmup (2026 brings the real pain) 3. Extended multi-wave correction through 2027 Smart money is preparing for all three. The cycle doesn't lie. The question isn't IF it turns. It's HOW dramatic the turn will be. Full analysis on the 18.6-year cycle and what it means for 2026 ↓ #RealEstate #LandDevelopment #CRE #RealEstateCycles #MarketAnalysis

Affordable Housing Finance Companies (AHFCs) in India are entering a phase of moderation, reports Christina Titus for Financial Express. Reasons? Rising land and construction costs, increasing delinquencies, intense competition from banks, limited supply, and weakening affordability. The AHFC market size currently stands at ₹13 lakh crore, and the segment’s asset under management growth is expected to moderate at 20%-25% between FY25-28, according to data from Elara Capital. "If bigger players successfully establish a viable model, their access to low-cost funding could pose significant competition to existing affordable finance providers. While demand remains strong, the supply side is constrained, with shrinking affordable housing projects launches. In tier-2 and tier-3 cities, self-constructed homes dominate the affordable housing landscape,” says Geeta Chainani, associate director- BFSI at CareEdge. Meanwhile, construction costs in top Indian cities have surged over 40% in the past five years, reports The Economic Times, citing data from Anarock. Mumbai, Delhi-NCR, and Bengaluru rank as the most expensive housing markets in India, with average costs exceeding ₹5,000 per sq. ft. "Construction costs in metros have escalated dramatically due to inflation, supply chain disruptions, and macro-economic events. Sustained government incentives, regulatory support, and emphasis on local sourcing are essential to stabilise construction costs and restore affordable housing supply,” says Dr. Prashant Thakur, executive director & head - research & advisory at Anarock. Affordable housing accounted for just 12% of new launches in H1 2025, down sharply from 40% in 2019, adds the report. Source: Financial Express (India) - https://lnkd.in/gB6Z3GnH The Economic Times - https://lnkd.in/gHH864RD ✍: Novinston Lobo 📸: Getty Images #AffordableHousing #RealEstate #HousingPrices #IndianRealEstate

80% of consumers don’t just listen to influencers. But they also buy the product they’re recommending. This number clearly indicates that an influencer has a solid hold over how many people buy from your brand. But here’s the blind spot: not all influencers have the same impact. Because the game of influence is not less about reach and more about trust. And in India, trust often flows through cultural and spiritual authorities more than celebrity endorsements. Case in point: my research at IIM Ahmedabad (IMRC 2024): I studied 10,000 respondents (18–40 years) across India in the gemstones & crystals category. The findings were eye-opening: - 72% said astrologers/numerologists influenced their purchase decisions. - 65% said social media influencers played a role. - 55% said celebrities mattered. - Only 30% said friends/family. Think about that: in this space, astrologers weren’t just “influencers.” They were cultural authorities who were becoming the common link between trust, tradition, and aspiration. Now here’s the bigger question for every D2C founder & marketer: If spirituality can drive consumer behavior so powerfully in one category… what’s stopping it from unlocking growth in others? At NumroVani, we’ve seen similar patterns play out across India. Spirituality isn’t a niche. It’s a cultural construct with massive influence, especially in wellness, jewelry, lifestyle, and beyond. For brands building in the D2C space, the lesson is clear: Don’t just chase influencers with the biggest following. Find the voices with the deepest trust. #Astrology #D2C #InfluencerMarketing