Understanding Real Estate Market Trends

Over the last year, nearly every FMCG executive I’ve spoken to whether sitting in Chicago, Paris, or São Paulo has echoed the same challenge: “We need to get closer to the consumer, faster.” Global brand, local nuance the future of FMCG growth depends on how well your leadership understands the street, not just the spreadsheet. It’s no longer enough to run a global playbook and hope for local resonance. Why? Because the center of gravity in FMCG has shifted. 84% of FMCG companies are now increasing local decision autonomy in key growth markets. (Bain FMCG Operating Model Report, 2023) → That means your CMO can’t be the only one with a finger on the pulse. → Your regional GM can’t just execute HQ strategy. → And your global leaders can’t lead with assumptions they need cultural fluency and operational humility. In other words: local-for-local is not just a supply chain shift. It’s a leadership shift. The most successful candidates weren’t those who had rotated through five global hubs. They were the ones who could… → Read the cultural nuances of consumer behavior in that specific region → Navigate the regulatory quirks that could derail a product launch → Influence global teams while building trust with local retailers → Speak the language literally and commercially They understood the street not just the spreadsheet. And they had the rare ability to connect what’s happening on the ground with what needs to be shifted at the center. These are the leaders FMCG needs now. → Strategists who don’t just adapt to the market, they anticipate it. → Operators who don’t wait for HQ they build and test in-market. → Connectors who know when to push back and when to align. Because in today’s world, speed and relevance win. And that doesn’t come from waiting for global sign-off. It comes from empowering the right local leaders. Here’s where I see many companies trip up: They treat “local” as junior. As operational. As reactive. The truth? Your next competitive edge may be a GM in Manila, a Marketing Director in Lagos, or a Commercial Lead in Warsaw who’s trusted enough to build strategy from the ground up. That’s what global FMCG companies are starting to understand and what we’re helping them solve for in every executive search we run. Not just global leaders who can work across regions…but local leaders who can lead across functions, cultures, and expectations while driving growth with urgency and empathy. This is the new face of global FMCG. Not centralized, but coordinated. Not rigid, but responsive. Not top-down, but built from the middle out. #ExecutiveSearch #FMCGLeadership #GlobalGrowth #ConsumerGoods #TalentStrategy #LeadershipHiring

An odd phenomenon keeps happening: 1) Apartment rents keep growing where little new supply gets built, and yet... 2) Apartment rents keep cooling where lots of new supply gets built. Could it be all about supply and demand? 🤔 (Yes.) CRE Analyst has a great post up this morning about apartment supply cycles and the relationship with rent growth. Their research shows a MUCH HIGHER correlation between supply and rents in this cycle (98%!) than in past cycles. Why? Because 1) For the first time in 40+ years, we're building so much supply in so many markets that it's having a very clear impact on rents. And 2) Because unlike in prior cycles' supply peaks, this one is not being taken down by a recession. So in those periods (2001-02, 2009-10), rents fell not merely because of "peak" cycle supply, but primarily because demand evaporated. In this cycle, there's still strong job/wage growth. Where are the top markets for rent growth right now? They're the steady-eddy markets that never saw a demand boom and therefore (importantly) never saw a supply boom: -- Syracuse NY, Lincoln NE, Midland TX, Louisville KY, Dayton OH, Springfield MA, New Haven CT, Lexington KY ... and among larger markets: Kansas City, Washington DC, Cleveland OH, Cincinnati OH, Greensboro NC, Virginia Beach VA, Chicago IL. Where are rents falling the most right now? Well, it's NOT where demand is weak. In fact, rents are falling in some of the hottest-demand markets -- an unusual phenomenon we haven't seen in a very long time. Because while there's a ton of demand, there's even more supply -- generational highs in deliveries. -- Austin TX, Myrtle Beach SC, Daytona Beach FL, Sarasota FL, Jacksonville FL, Atlanta GA, Raleigh NC, Lakeland FL, San Antonio TX, Phoenix AZ. Now here's important context: In prior cycles, many analysts (especially investment banks) routinely whiffed on forecasts because they misunderstood the relationship between supply and demand. *** In the 2010s through 2022, we saw some markets with "high" supply rank among the national leaders for rent growth, outperforming Wall Street forecasts. How can this be given everything we just covered? It's simple: Because relative positioning (No. 1 supply market!) doesn't matter. What matters is VOLUME of supply relative to demand in a given market. Demand routinely exceeded supply volumes that looked "big" but were actually quite manageable relative to demand... and indeed, demand often exceeded supply even in the highest-supplied markets between 2010-2022. And I still think that's where we'll eventually end back up, given the recent plunge in new starts pointing to much lesser supply by 2026. At that point, the supply/rent correlation will likely drop from its current 98% just because there'll be much less supply to impact the market. But where we sit today with peak supply: Rents are slowing where supply is going in big numbers. Rents are growing where there's little supply. #apartments #housing #econ101

The recent decline in mortgage rates—staying below 6.5% for most of September—is a meaningful shift for housing. Though it may not feel like much for those accustomed to 2% or 3% rates, even small drops can have a major impact on affordability.   For example, moving from 7% to 6.5% puts 2.125 million more households in a position to buy. If rates were to fall to 6%, that number more than doubles, pricing in another 4.246 million households.   That said, it's important to consider the underlying reason behind the decline: the cooling labor market. Our historical research shows a consistent two-phase dynamic between the economy and housing:   Phase 1. A slower job market initially reduces housing demand despite lower rates. This is driven by job insecurity and weaker consumer confidence. Phase 2. Falling interest rates eventually outweigh those headwinds, helping revive sales activity.   Right now, the housing market is still in Phase 1. This is consistent with the historical pattern where housing acts as a leading indicator—it slows before the broader economy but also turns the corner sooner. Zonda Alexander Edelman Trevor Tetzlaff Sean Fergus Sarah Bonnarens Tim Sullivan Keith Hughes Cameron McIntosh Kyle Cheslock

Lisbon finally succeeded. Now everyone's angry about it. (New article) I was born in Lisbon. Fifteen years ago, the city was empty. Buildings falling apart. Young people leaving in waves. No jobs. No future. We exported people — it was the only thing Portugal had in abundance. Then Lisbon became desirable. Tech workers arrived. Remote workers followed. The city came alive. We got what we wanted. And now locals are being priced out. A one-bedroom apartment costs €1,600. The average worker makes €1,500. Here's what everyone gets wrong: they're blaming the immigrants. The real problem? Portugal built 3.4 housing units per 10,000 people while demand exploded 44%. I know someone who tried to build a coliving space. Real investment. Jobs. Housing for dozens of people. They waited 3 years for permits. The project died. Meanwhile, 15% of Lisbon's housing sits empty, locked behind bureaucracy that takes 5+ years to approve development plans. Now look at Austin, Texas. Tech workers flooded in. Rents spiked to $2,500+. Austin's response? Build 50,000 units in two years. That's 64.5 units per 10,000 people — 19x faster than Portugal. Result: Rents dropped 17-22%. Vacancy doubled. Supply caught up with demand. When people want to move to your city, that's success — not a problem to solve by keeping them out. Austin prepared for success. Lisbon didn't. One city made it easy to build. The other made it nearly impossible. Success isn't the problem. U npreparedness is. If you're building a destination, this is the framework you need. I break down the Austin blueprint, why Lisbon failed despite 15% vacant housing, and what destination architects must understand about housing infrastructure. Full analysis on my new article!

Why I believe more people will start moving to the South of Dubai I see Dubai South becoming one of the city’s most in-demand areas in the next few years. Here’s why 1) Dubai will need around 150 new schools by 2030. As more families move in, they’ll naturally choose areas where new schools open, driving demand for family-friendly communities with greenery and open spaces. 2) The daily commute between Sharjah and Dubai is becoming unsustainable. The AED 1.5B RTA road expansion aims to cut travel time by 45%, making commuting from Dubai South to central Dubai faster and smoother. 3) The new airport, Etihad Rail, and Metro extension are all centered around Dubai South. Major infrastructure has always been a catalyst for growth, and investors know it. 4) Central districts are getting more expensive. Dubai South offers high-quality communities at better price points, making it attractive for both end users and investors. 5) Modern, green, and well-planned communities with great amenities, designed for families who value space and lifestyle. Every real estate cycle in Dubai follows infrastructure and accessibility. Ask yourself, why does BlackRock bet big in infrastructure? Start paying attention. #DubaiRealEstate #DubaiSouth #RealEstateInsights #PropertyMarket #DubaiInvestment #RealEstateTrends #Infrastructure #DubaiLiving #PropertyDevelopment

Housing starts have plummeted to their lowest level since 2020, falling short of consensus expectations. The month-over-month decline is primarily due to a drop in the volatile multi-family groundbreaking. Compared to last month, starts have decreased by 10%, and they are down 4.6% from the same period last year. Single-family home starts were essentially flat in May compared to April but down 7.3% compared to last year. A decline in single-family building permits points to a weaker trend moving forward, with SF building permits declining 2.7% in May and down 6.4% compared to a year ago. Not entirely surprising, considering that builder sentiment in June reached its lowest level in 13 years, excluding April 2020 and December 2022. This growing pessimism was widespread across all HMI components. Optimism about single-family sales for the next six months dropped by two points, and current sales conditions also fell by two points, marking the lowest level since June 2012. Prospective buyer traffic decreased from 23 to 21. Despite the weak construction print, new home sales showed strength in April. What's going on? New home sales might offer a better deal for buyers than existing homes. The latest HMI survey revealed that 37% of builders reported cutting prices in June, the highest percentage since NAHB began tracking this figure monthly in 2022. Additionally, the use of sales incentives rose to 62% in June, up one percentage point from May. Historically, new homes have come with a price premium, but that gap has disappeared. In April, the median price of an existing home ($414,000) was actually higher than that of a median new home ($407,200). This is partly due to price cuts and builders constructing smaller, less expensive homes. New home sales made up the highest share of total sales since 2005 in April. Builders face higher financing costs, tariff uncertainty, softer demand from elevated rates, rising existing-home inventory in key markets like Texas and Florida, and higher inventories of their own. This mix is weighing on builder sentiment and likely to slow single-family construction. The headline housing starts number for May was dragged down by a 30% drop in the volatile multi-family sector. But smoothing the data shows multi-family permits and starts have been trending sideways, suggesting stabilization. Tailwinds for the MF market include a small relative backlog, growing apartment demand (as affordability constraints persist in the for-sale market), and continued growth in the prime renter-age population.

I just finished an interview with a reporter about layoffs in the industry and, putting all the facts together, it really clarifies what a sobering reality we are in. This reality is: -22% of land sales over $5 million in Q1 2025 were court-ordered, more than double the share from the same period last year. -Three of the four largest residential land transactions in Metro Vancouver in 2024 were court-ordered sales. -The region’s unsold condo inventory is expected to increase by over 60% this year, rising from 2,179 units in completed projects to nearly 3,500 by the end of 2025. -The vast majority of pre-sale projects, woodframe, concrete, and townhomes, are tracking well below the pace of sales needed to reach the 70% pre-sale threshold, or higher, that lenders typically require for construction financing. -Housing starts in Metro Vancouver declined by more than 15% from 2023 to 2024. -In Burnaby, which had previously emerged as a leader in new housing delivery, housing starts fell by 52% to their lowest level since 2015. -Provincial resale inventory is expected to average over 40,000 listings, the highest level in more than a decade. -Residential building permits in Metro Vancouver dropped by 8.1% in 2024, according to BC Stats, and several municipalities experienced declines over 40%, and as high as 85.9% in Delta. We are well past the point of noting the canaries in the coalmine have stopped singing. Last month, Rennie Marketing laid off 25% of its workforce, President Greg Zayadi saying “The shifts we’re seeing in real estate aren’t temporary, they’re structural. And yesterday is never coming back.” Wesgroup also announced major layoffs with CEO Beau Jarvis citing “unprecedented and compounding challenges facing the real estate industry." There is no positive spin to this story. The only way that happens is through action from governments at all levels. Mark Carney, Gregor Robertson, David Eby, Ravi Kahlon, what is your concrete, actionable, and fact-based plan to get housing back on track? Municipal leaders, what are you doing first thing Monday to make your contribution to solving the housing problem? #UDI #ActionToday #TheHousingProblem #BC #Layoffs

U.S. housing market now has 500,000 more home sellers than homebuyers That’s the most homebuyers have outmatched home sellers in over a decade, according to Redfin. During the Pandemic Housing Boom, housing demand surged rapidly amid ultralow interest rates, stimulus, and the remote work boom—which increased demand for space and unlocked “WFH arbitrage” as high earners were able to keep their income from a job in say, NYC or L.A., and buy in say Austin or Tampa. Federal Reserve researchers estimate “new construction would have had to increase by roughly 300% to absorb the pandemic-era surge in demand.” Unlike housing demand, housing stock supply isn’t as elastic and can't ramp up as quickly. As a result, the heightened pandemic era demand drained the market of active inventory and overheated home prices, with U.S. home prices rising a staggering 43.2% between March 2020 and June 2022. Of course, a lot has changed since then. Not long after mortgage rates spiked in 2022—causing affordability to reflect the reality of the sharp home price increases during the Pandemic Housing Boom—and return-to-office gained a bit of momentum, national demand in the for-sale market pulled back and the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out. The longer we've remained in this strained housing demand environment, the more the total number of U.S. active sellers is outmatching the total number of active homebuyers. My latest for ResiClub: https://lnkd.in/ggAjhWrP

The housing market is shifting. Nearly 15% of U.S. home purchase agreements fell through in June, according to Redfin—up 1% from a year ago and the highest June figure since tracking began in 2017. At first, this stat might seem puzzling. After all, isn't there supposed to be pent-up demand, especially among Millennials and Gen Z? So, what’s behind this? Well, according to the report... • Some buyers are using inspection contingencies to walk away after spotting an issue or discovering a better home • Mortgage rates remain stuck in the upper mid-6% range, and some buyers are hoping for a drop • And in some cases, shoppers are simply more cautious amid economic uncertainty Still, the Redfin data isn’t revealing a sudden change—it’s part of a broader trend I’ve been tracking throughout 2025: the shift to a buyer's market. In my latest Housing Market Predictions piece, I covered how home price growth has been slowing and inventory has been steadily improving since the start of the year. That extra supply, combined with sticky mortgage rates, has given buyers a little more breathing room and negotiating power in a still-pricey housing market. Even so, it's important to remember that housing trends remain deeply regional. For example, affordable markets in parts of the Midwest and Northeast, which didn’t experience the extreme price surges of the pandemic years, are seeing strong buyer demand and competitive conditions. In contrast, areas like Florida and parts of the West, where insurance costs and high home prices are causing concern, and where rapid home building in recent years is now offering buyers more choice, are experiencing more deals falling through. If you’re wondering where the housing market is headed for the rest of 2025, here’s the breakdown of the trends I’m watching: https://lnkd.in/eAfHPdQn Forbes Advisor

🏡 Post-Pandemic Population Shifts Are Rewriting Residential Markets, and Investors Who Understand Both Demand and Supply Will Win New county-level data (2021–2024) shows a clear reshaping of where Americans live, and these shifts are directly influencing residential fundamentals. 📈 Demand Is Surging in the Sun Belt Harris County, TX (+273K), Maricopa County, AZ (+227K), and multiple Florida counties are leading the nation in population growth. These markets continue to attract new households seeking affordability, jobs, and lifestyle advantages. 📉 Coastal Urban Cores Are Still Shrinking Los Angeles County (-239K), Cook County (-84K), and major NYC boroughs remain in decline. These markets aren’t disappearing, but the fundamentals have structurally changed. 🏘️Rural & Small-Metro Counties Surprise Remote work stabilized, allowing many rural counties to enjoy a net inflow of ~670K residents, creating pockets of unexpected housing demand. 🔍The Insight: Demand Matters, But Supply Determines the Outcome Population growth alone doesn’t guarantee strong returns. Supply constraints, zoning, entitlements, and land availability decide whether demand translates into rent growth and pricing power. Some of the strongest opportunities today are in counties with: ✔ Strong in-migration ✔ Limited ability to add new supplies quickly That’s where durable value is created. Source: U.S. Census Bureau via Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies / Visual Capitalist #RealEstateInvesting #Multifamily #HousingMarket #SunBeltGrowth #PopulationTrends #MarketResearch #PropTech #MigrationPatterns #SupplyAndDemand #RealEstateAnalytics