Understanding Labor Market Trends

After spending three decades in the aerospace industry, I’ve seen firsthand how crucial it is for different sectors to learn from each other. We no longer can afford to stay stuck in our own bubbles. Take the aerospace industry, for example. They’ve been looking at how car manufacturers automate their factories to improve their own processes. And those racing teams? Their ability to prototype quickly and develop at a breakneck pace is something we can all learn from to speed up our product development. It’s all about breaking down those silos and embracing new ideas from wherever we can find them. When I was leading the Scorpion Jet program, our rapid development – less than two years to develop a new aircraft – caught the attention of a company known for razors and electric shavers. They reached out to us, intrigued by our ability to iterate so quickly, telling me "you developed a new jet faster than we can develop new razors..." They wanted to learn how we managed to streamline our processes. It was quite an unexpected and fascinating experience that underscored the value of looking beyond one’s own industry can lead to significant improvements and efficiencies, even in fields as seemingly unrelated as aerospace and consumer electronics. In today’s fast-paced world, it’s more important than ever for industries to break out of their silos and look to other sectors for fresh ideas and processes. This kind of cross-industry learning not only fosters innovation but also helps stay competitive in a rapidly changing market. For instance, the aerospace industry has been taking cues from car manufacturers to improve factory automation. And the automotive companies are adopting aerospace processes for systems engineering. Meanwhile, both sectors are picking up tips from tech giants like Apple and Google to boost their electronics and software development. And at Siemens, we partner with racing teams. Why? Because their knack for rapid prototyping and fast-paced development is something we can all learn from to speed up our product development cycles. This cross-pollination of ideas is crucial as industries evolve and integrate more advanced technologies. By exploring best practices from other industries, companies can find innovative new ways to improve their processes and products. After all, how can someone think outside the box, if they are only looking in the box? If you are interested in learning more, I suggest checking out this article by my colleagues Todd Tuthill and Nand Kochhar where they take a closer look at how cross-industry learning are key to developing advanced air mobility solutions. https://lnkd.in/dK3U6pJf

This isn't just another corporate restructuring. It's different this time: → These aren't juniors - they're cutting SENIOR roles → Many have 5+ years of experience → This is happening during peak consulting season Why?: → AI does in minutes what took analysts weeks → Clients now have their own data teams → SaaS platforms replaced implementation work → Premium fees are compressing as analysis gets commoditized The future of consulting: → Small, elite teams replace massive pyramids → On-demand talent replaces fixed benches → Only truly strategic work survives For the Big 4 firms holding onto the old model? EY just showed us their future. The question isn't whether consulting will change. It's whether they can change fast enough.

The relocation decisions of male-female couples are predominantly determined by what's best for the man's career: 1. Couples are more likely to relocate when a man is laid off than after a woman is. 2. Men's earnings increase following a couple's move to a new commuting zone, while women's earnings stay the same or decline. This in part because women spend less time working, particularly in the first year after the move when they are more likely than men to be job hunting. The gender gap persists for at least five years and is largest among couples who are in their 20s. The researchers study Germany and Sweden, and attribute the results to relocation decisions being driven by antiquated gender norms. They conclude that "households in both countries place less weight on income earned by a woman compared to a man, particularly in Germany." By Seema Jayachandran, Lea Nassal, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, Marie Paul, Heather Sarsons, and Elin Sundberg. https://lnkd.in/eHSXi5Mj

Most companies don’t have a hiring problem. They have a leaving problem. And leadership avoids the mirror. The fastest way to lose top talent? Treat retention like HR’s job. And leadership like business as usual. Because replacing good people doesn’t just cost money. It costs momentum. Trust. Institutional memory. Belief. And here's the real irony: The leaders who complain most about “talent shortages” are often the ones quietly pushing talent out. Not through bad intentions. But through everyday leadership design. If you want people to stay,  start here 👇 1. Make it safe to tell the truth early Not in exit interviews. In week one - before silence feels safer than honesty. 2. Say what won’t change - especially when everything else is Name the constants. Repeat them. Stability is what people hold onto in uncertainty. 3. Fix systems before judging people Look at workload. Priorities. Handoffs. Broken systems exhaust good people. 4. Treat emotional load as real work Change fatigue. Tension. Customer pressure. Invisible labor is still labor - and it’s why people leave. 5. Invite people into decisions that shape their work Not everything is democratic. But nothing important happens without context. 6. Create visible growth paths, not vague promises Talk about skills. Next moves. What “better” actually looks like here. 7. Design fairness instead of relying on goodwill Clear standards. Consistent reactions. No mood-based leadership. People stay where dignity isn’t negotiable. Here’s the part worth remembering: You can always hire new people. But you can’t rehire trust, pride,  or belief once they’re gone. Great leaders don’t try to “retain talent.” They build places worth staying. ♻ 🥇 Repost to remind leaders what actually makes people stay. ➕ Follow Mike Leber for leadership people actually stay for. Image credit: Eric Partaker — 📌 I’m creating a free Leadership Readiness Assessment  to help leaders spot what’s pushing people out - and fix it early. Join the waitlist to get it first  👉 https://lnkd.in/dM8Ks7Ns

An update from the American Economic Association Committee on the Job Market regarding the #EconJobMarket; data as of Dec 14, 2025. In terms of the number of job listings on Job Openings for Economists (JOE), this is the worst job market in recent years for PhD Economists. The number of jobs is down 20% from the same time last year, and is even 18.9% lower than during COVID (2020). Within job types: the number of full-time academic jobs in the US is down 32.6% from last year. Within academic jobs: the # of full-time jobs in the U.S. at 4-year colleges (e.g. liberal arts colleges) and universities with graduate programs are both down roughly one-third from last year. The number of full-time academic jobs outside of the US that are listed on JOE (which may not be all of them) are down 13% from last year and are 25.3% lower than during COVID (2020). The nonacademic market is also weak; the number of full-time nonacademic jobs listed on JOE is down 26.7% from just last year, and is even 45.1% lower than during the worst of COVID (2020). Within categories of nonacademic jobs; perhaps the bleakest sector is hiring by the federal government. (Not surprising given DOGE cuts and then the government shutdown.) The number of such jobs is down 71.1% from last year and is even 79.1% lower than during COVID (2020). The relative bright spot is in the private sector. Among nonacademic jobs, for both a) consulting or research; and b) banking, finance, business, industry, the number of openings is low but still similar to some recent year. So for those of you on the #EconJobMarket, it's not your imagination; it's tough out there. Hopefully universities (despite their financial pressures) can support unmatched candidates for an additional year if necessary.

Novartis has recently announced over 2,000 job cuts in the U.S., including around 400 roles at its East Hanover, New Jersey site — the company’s U.S. headquarters. The plan signals a clear intent to shift parts of its operations and talent footprint back toward Europe. This comes even as the company reports strong results: net income up 24% to $4B, free cash flow up 37% to $6.3B, and a $10B share buyback planned through 2027. While the headlines focus on layoffs, what’s really happening is a strategic rebalancing — relocating capabilities closer to R&D, manufacturing, and decision-making centers in Europe. And since Novartis’ global headquarters are in Switzerland, the shift naturally draws attention to the country’s role within this broader transformation. But the signal extends far beyond one company. Across life sciences and other technical industries, global organisations are re-evaluating how their European operations are structured — and where their critical talent should sit to drive long-term competitiveness. We’re already seeing this play out in practice — particularly in and around Switzerland, where: • Global companies are expanding or consolidating European operations around established Swiss hubs for R&D, regulatory, and leadership roles. • The competition for technical, scientific, and manufacturing talent has intensified, driving new emphasis on retention and internal mobility. • Local workforce planning is evolving as Swiss-based teams increasingly support wider EMEA mandates, creating both opportunity and pressure to scale the right capabilities locally. As this reshaping continues, the focus now turns to how companies prepare — both from a Talent Acquisition and business strategy perspective. Are leadership teams forecasting the right skill needs in Europe? Are TA and HR functions building local pipelines fast enough to meet demand? How are organisations ensuring they can attract, relocate, and retain the best talent amid increasing competition? My view: Switzerland and Europe are entering a pivotal moment. The companies that plan proactively — aligning workforce strategies with global shifts — will not only secure critical talent but also strengthen their long-term competitiveness. This is where strategic talent planning becomes business strategy. 💬 I’d love to hear from my network — TA, HR, and business leaders across Switzerland and Europe: How do you see this global talent shift influencing the way companies build and retain teams in Europe? And what do you think it will take to stay competitive in this new landscape? #TalentPartner #Switzerland #EMEA #LifeSciences #Pharma #Biotech #TalentStrategy #FutureOfWork #Hiring

The Decline in India's IT Sector: A Wake-Up Call India's top seven IT companies, employing nearly 1.6 million people, have collectively reduced their workforce by 71,285 employees (-4.2%) in the last financial year. This data, drawn from their annual reports, highlights a concerning trend. This isn’t just an isolated incident — 6 out of the 7 companies have scaled down their workforce significantly. 🚨 Key Points to Consider: India's software exports stood at $205.2 billion, contributing 26% to the total exports of $776.68 billion. If this core sector is slowing down, it could push our economic growth into negative territory and exacerbate unemployment. With 1.5 million engineers graduating every year, where will these young minds go if top IT employers aren’t hiring? Cities like Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad, Pune, Noida, Thiruvananthapuram, and Kochi could face ripple effects — impacting real estate, secondary employment, and small businesses dependent on the discretionary spending of IT professionals. The IT sector has long been the backbone of India’s middle-class income growth, but its decline could dim the entrepreneurial and national spirit. It’s time for industry leaders, policymakers, and stakeholders to come together and address this challenge. A thriving IT sector is not just vital for our economy but also for the aspirations of millions of young Indians. What are your thoughts on the future of the IT sector in India? Let’s discuss. #ITIndustry #IndianEconomy #SoftwareExports #EmploymentCrisis #FutureOfWork #EngineeringGraduates #Bangalore #IndiaGrowthStory #Layoffs #EconomicGrowth #MiddleClassIndia #PolicyChange #TechIndustry

Something unusual is happening in high-skill services. The chart below tracks employment in Finance, Insurance, Information, and Professional & Technical Services. Historically, these sectors in aggregate never saw job growth stall for over two years outside of a recession. Yet that’s exactly what’s happened since late 2022. And it’s not due to weak demand—economic growth has been strong, tech adoption has surged, and businesses have continued investing in digital transformation and AI. So why has employment flatlined? Part of the answer may be AI itself. These industries are at the frontier of generative AI adoption—filled with roles that involve writing, analysis, planning, and coding. The very tasks that today’s AI models are best at automating or augmenting. This could be the early signs of a structural shift—from steady headcount growth to a new era of productivity without proportional hiring. That could also be one of the explanations for why new college grads are struggling to find a job. The future of white-collar work may be arriving faster than we thought. What do you think? #labormarkets #futureofwork #ai #recruitment

The labor market from 2019 - 2024 has been complete chaos. Here's what it has looked like from the POV of a compensation leader: 📉 Market Chaos. → 2019 SaaS Gold Rush → 2020 Covid Black Swan Days → 2020/2021 ZIRP Froth → Inflation Spike → High Interest Rates  → 2022/2023 “SaaScession” → First Innings of the AI Boom 🏢 Covid-Induced Office Culture Chaos. → 5 Days/Week In Office → Fully Remote Overnight → Rapid Globalization of the Workforce → Return to Office Wave ⚖️ Compensation Legislative Chaos. I'd call out the Pay Transparency Wave in the USA and DEI Reporting Requirements in Europe. Some good news–chaos and scarcity inspire innovation, and the pressures of rapid innovation create diamonds. We are in the early innings of a “CompTech” boom. And traditional compensation philosophy is being challenged and redesigned at faster rates than we’ve ever seen. __________________ Pave's data team (shoutout Frances Mitchell) recently collaborated with Redpoint (shoutout Atli Thorkelsson) to produce the 2024 State of Talent Report: https://lnkd.in/gadi-FjE 5 takeaways: 1️⃣ Merit cycle freezes are becoming normalized. The number of companies simply skipping company-wide merit cycles altogether roughly doubled from 2022 to 2023. 2️⃣ The 4 year vest is dying. There has been a surge in popularity of shorter vesting schedules as companies look to 1) curtail high dilution rates while meanwhile 2) saving optionality to more disproportionately invest in the highest performing employees over time. 3️⃣ AI/ML engineer compensation is a tale of two cities. Some AI/ML engineers are bringing home 7 figure comp packages from the minority of outliers (e.g. OpenAI). Meanwhile, the rest of the market for AI/ML is hot but not by an order of magnitude; we’re currently seeing a ~7-8% premium for the AI/ML job family over the Software Engineering Generalist job family. This said, I do expect the demand and compensation premium for AI/ML talent to increase over time. 4️⃣ AI Disrupting Other Job Families. The roles, responsibilities, and compensation outcomes for job families including Sales, Customer Support, and parts of Marketing are evolving before our eyes. Meanwhile, for software engineering, AI currently seems to be more of a developer productivity enhancer rather than a talent disrupter. As David Singleton, CTO of Stripe, puts it, AI will allow engineers to “bend computer systems to their will in order to solve business problems”. 5️⃣ Equity Participation is Decreasing. Companies are no longer just giving equity haphazardly to 100% of candidates and employees. Instead, they are focusing on giving equity to the most leveraged subsets of their talent base–top performers, the job families that value equity the most, and the locations most congruent culturally and legislatively with equity compensation as a retention tool. For a deeper dive into the insights, check out the full report (linked above). #pave #redpoint

Emerging economies set to take the beauty sector by storm in 2026. At Western economies, growth relies on capturing competitors’ market share, while emerging economies focus on organic growth from new customers. The global beauty market is set to grow at ~6.9% CAGR (2025–2035), reaching over $1.5 trillion, with the fastest expansion in Asia-Pacific, the Middle East & Africa, and Latin America. Are you ready? <<KEY TRENDS driving growth>> +60% of consumers prioritize products with natural or “clean” ingredients. +Male and unisex beauty is rising, expanding the overall consumer base. +Digitalization of commerce, social media, and direct-to-consumer channels, has made global brands accessible to many first-time buyers in emerging markets. <<REGIONS 2026>> By 2026, APAC will remain the global leader; the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America will emerge as key growth hubs with increasingly diverse consumer profiles. Emerging economies are no longer secondary markets, they are drivers of global beauty growth. Asia-Pacific. +Leads with ~34–36% of global market share, 7.5% CAGR. +Key markets: China, India, South Korea, Japan; +main categories: skincare. +E-commerce and social media enable rapid brand entry. Middle East & Africa. +Smaller market but high growth CAGR 8%. +Demand for climate-adapted, halal, and natural products; rising urbanization supports mid-to-premium segments. Latin America. +Fastest-growing market with sustained expansion to 2030, 5.7% CAGR. +Key countries: Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina +Top categories: skincare, haircare, fragrances. <<CONSUMER SEGMENTATION>> Emerging economies are driving growth across all beauty segments, from mass-market/masstige to premium and luxury, offering major opportunities for global and local brands. +Mass/Masstige: Strong demand from middle-class consumers and urban youth (20–35), focused on daily skincare, haircare, and hygiene products via retail and e-commerce; highly price-sensitive. +Premium/Mid-high: Growing upper-middle-class seeks better-performing skincare, haircare, and fragrances, often favoring clean and natural ingredients. +Luxury/Prestige: Smaller but expanding segment of high-income, aspirational consumers buying luxury cosmetics, fragrances, and advanced treatments, especially in APAC and urban emerging markets. Conclusion Emerging economies are driving global beauty growth across mass-market, premium, luxury, and niche segments like natural, clean, and male grooming products. Brands must adapt to local diversity, as copying Western strategies isn’t enough. The future of beauty is global, digital, and diverse, with both local and international players competing for a more discerning audience. Featured brands: Danessa Myricks Beauty e.l.f. Cosmetics Fenty Beauty Glossier Huda Beauty Kylie Cosmetics Kayali La Roche-Posay Maybelline New York Rhode Rare Beauty SHEGLAM Sol de Janeiro Touchland #beautybusiness #beautyprofessionals #beautypackaging #businessopportunity