Major Tech Companies Gaining From TikTok Ban

As the bill to force TikTok to divest has passed in the House, we’re now one step closer to a potential TikTok ban. Who would benefit? Depends how you look at it. Former president Trump has said that a TikTok ban would “help Facebook.” There’s some truth to that - but Meta is far from the only company that stands to benefit. Advertising Many advertisers are already working on contingency plans as the bill progresses. Meta is an obvious and easy choice. Based on a preliminary analysis by my colleague Jeremy Goldman, Facebook-owner Meta could take about a quarter of reallocated TikTok ad revenues, or between $1.98 to $2.38 billion if TikTok is banned in 2024. It’s not nothing, but it would be incremental ad dollars for Meta, considering we already expect it to generate $62.70 billion in US ad revenues this year. But YouTube-parent Google would be another beneficiary of a TikTok ban, as would CTV players like Netflix. Retail media platforms would be a top choice for TikTok Shop advertisers, potentially boosting players like Amazon and Walmart. My colleague Max Willens has a bit more on the possibilities there. A smaller portion of reallocated ad dollars would also go to smaller social platforms like Snap and Pinterest. Users TikTok’s users and creators are the app’s strongest line of defense in the fight against the bill as it moves to the Senate, and they’ve already come out in full force. As I predicted during the attempt to ban TikTok in March 2023, that has backfired to some extent. As TikTok mobilizes its users to demonstrate how important the app is to consumers, it’s also confirming what the bill's proponents are trying to prove: That TikTok has a massive influence on the American public. It does. At EMARKETER we expect adult TikTok users to spend a total of 4.8 million minutes on the platform in 2024. That's slightly behind Facebook, but already ahead of Instagram. TikTok users aren’t likely to go to Facebook, but Instagram could pick up significant usage. We expect about 74.5% of US TikTok users to also use Instagram monthly in 2024, so there’s already plenty of overlap there. But as TikTok has transformed from a short-video app into more of an “everything app” (sorry Elon Musk, X isn't quite there yet), the list of options for where we’ll spend our time has also grown. I suspect that TikTok time will be fragmented across platforms, with multiple beneficiaries - including potential contenders that will arise if TikTok were to be banned.

TikTok's time spent on mobile in the US dropped by 24% in Q1'25 vs Q1'23, according to my analysis of Sensor Tower Data. Where did that time go, and can a future US buyer reverse the trend? Today, The Information exclusively reported that Bytedance's international revenue (mostly TikTok) rose 63% to $39 billion in 2024. But in the US, engagement is sliding—well before the on-again, off-again ban. So who's gaining? Instagram and YouTube—the very platforms TikTok once threatened. Reels and Shorts are doing the job: Instagram grew total time spent by 20% in the same period; YouTube grew 10%. In absolute numbers, YouTube saw the biggest jump, from 5.6B to 6.2B monthly mobile hours. Even Facebook, which had also been losing total time spent (-9% in two years), inched up by a bit in Q1 vs Q4. The chart below tracks *total* time spent in the US, not time spent per user. Global trends are different; I've written about that in "The Rise of the Media Super-Apps"—reach out if you're interested in hearing more. If you use any of these platforms on a regular basis, how has your behavior changed over the last two years, and why? Link to the story from The Information in the comments.

The biggest winner of a supposed TikTok ban? YouTube. Some might say Snap. And some might say Instagram. But per syndicated research, ~75% of TikTok users also use YouTube - more than any other social or video platform, including Instagram and Snap. It's a home run for creators, as they can focus all of their attention on just one platform, testing out different content lengths across YouTube proper and Shorts, and splitting revenue with the company across desktop, mobile, and CTV attention. Consider that Meta paid $2B to creators in 2023, which was only 1.5% of their total revenue. YouTube, meanwhile, shares 55% of ad revenue with creators and pays out creators about $10B annually. YouTube is also the #1 CTV service in the country, and also neck in neck with the likes of Disney for the #1 distributor of TV content by time spent. If you were a creator, which platform would you choose to prioritize if TikTok gets banned? Of the $6B in revenue TikTok does annually in the U.S., I expect at least half to go to YouTube, with $2B going towards Instagram and the rest going to Snap and other media channels. So if you're thinking of what horse to bet on with a potential TikTok ban coming, focus on where those users are already spending their time, and what platforms already cater well to freed up creators. And it's predominantly YouTube.

Marketers have long been preparing for the possibility of a TikTok ban, which could take effect on Jan. 19—unless the Supreme Court says otherwise. Many brands won’t immediately stop advertising on TikTok if a ban kicks in. But of the advertising dollars that will ultimately be reallocated in the absence of TikTok, Meta and YouTube stand to gain the most: They would capture about half of US TikTok ad spend, per an EMARKETER analysis. A TikTok ban would have all sorts of implications for brands, creators, and users. On average, TikTok users in the US spent nearly an hour on the app per day last year, per our forecasts, meaning social (and other) platforms will jockey for that time. Meanwhile, creators are split on a TikTok alternative as they weigh the pros and cons of YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels. And brands have already been finding new ways to incorporate creators into their marketing, whether via in-person events, CTV, or billboards, so the loss of TikTok could only speed up their plans in these areas. A new report I wrote with Jasmine Enberg unpacks all of this and more—I dropped a link in the comments for subscribers.