Investment Strategies For Beginners

If you are 19 years old and want to invest in bitcoin. Here is a good approach you can take: 1. Learn about the basics of investing and Bitcoin. A great resource is the book “The Bitcoin Standard” by Dr. Saifedean Ammous. 2. Educate yourself to a level where you can confidently explain to friends and family why you are investing in Bitcoin. Think of it like your college thesis, where you should be able to defend your position in front of your professor. 3. Invest an amount that matches your personal risk appetite. Investors like Ray Dalio have suggested allocating around 15% of your total portfolio to Bitcoin if you have a good risk appetite. You can also allocate between 1%–5% if you want to be more conservative. 4. Set up a weekly or monthly SIP so you can benefit from rupee cost averaging. 5. Since you are investing for the long term, do not constantly check your portfolio every day or worry about short-term volatility. The simple mantra to follow is: DYOR, Buy, HODL, चिल.

Many friends ask me this question: What's the best way to start investing in crypto? My simple answer is to do what you already do in other assets and invest with a long-term horizon in mind. Most people already have SIPs into the Nifty 50 or S&P 500. Let’s explore how adding a BTC SIP can help your personal finance? If you had started a ₹10,000/month SIP in Bitcoin 5 years ago (covering both the bull and bear phases) until today: - Bitcoin (BTC) - ₹6 lakh invested → ₹42.5 lakh today (≈ 56 % CAGR) - Nifty 50 TRI - ₹6 lakh invested → ₹10.4 lakh today (≈ 20 % CAGR) - S&P 500 (Total Return) - ₹6 lakh invested → ₹9.1 lakh today (≈ 17 % CAGR) Key insight: Bitcoin turned ₹6 lakh into ₹42.5 lakh, dwarfing equity SIPs - but with higher volatility. Risk lens: Bitcoin cycles include at least one 60 %+ drawdown; equity SIPs are smoother. Rupee-cost averaging helps brace against drawdowns. Remember, don’t invest for short-term gains. Why BTC still has a long way to go: 1️⃣ Digital gold upside: If Bitcoin claims just 30-40% of gold's projected market cap (~$55T, ~11% CAGR) in a decade, $1M/BTC is well within reach. 2️⃣ Institutional momentum: Spot ETFs, pension allocations, sovereign reserves, all adding credibility and demand. $150B has already been added via the US BTC ETFs since their debut in Jan 2024, making it one of the greatest launches in ETF history. 3️⃣ This is a ~23% IRR projection for a ₹10k/month Bitcoin SIP started today at roughly $114k/BTC. A decade of ₹10K/month (₹13.2 lakh total) could generate ~₹40 lakh in today’s value versus ~12–13 % for long-term equity SIPs. If you're already running a monthly SIP into equity, adding 10-20% allocation to Bitcoin over the next 10 years (depending on your risk appetite) could boost your portfolio's overall returns significantly, from an average equity SIP IRR of ~12–13% to potentially ~16–18%, without betting heavily or attempting to time the market.

𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐢-𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞: Approaches to Crypto Investing 🛣️ This week on the newsletter, we're sharing our views on crypto. We see crypto not as one asset class - if anything, it is a theme that can be played through a variety of ways. As follows, you can see which categories we most frequently see in clients portfolios: 𝐓𝐨𝐤𝐞𝐧 𝐏𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬: In the simplest form, buying Bitcoin. Beyond BTC, there’s a countless other tokens, ranging from large projects like to project-specific tokens to ‘meme coins.’ 𝐀𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐋𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝 𝐅𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐬: Actively managed strategies that invest in crypto and its derivatives (i.e. futures, options, ‘DeFi’ strategies). They range from strategies as simple as a ‘token fund’ that actively trades large tokens to sophisticated ‘quant funds’. 𝐃𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬: Investments in the equity of companies with crypto exposure. That could range from a crypto miner, to a crypto technology provider (i.e. wallets, analytics) to companies building crypto-native projects (i.e. a new blockchain or a DeFi trading tool). 𝐈𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝 𝐅𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐬: As counterpart to active liquid strategies, (VC) funds make diversified bets into the equity and/or tokens of specific crypto projects/companies. As usual with VC, they might range from early-stage all the way to late-stage, established projects. Now that we know the categories - how do investors think that they stand to benefit from the crypto theme through the respective sub-asset class? 𝐓𝐨𝐤𝐞𝐧 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞. Investors are directly exposed to changes in price of the respective token. The general idea is that especially large tokens such as BTC or ETH allow investors to capitalize on the technological trend as a whole without having to take a project-specific bet. 𝐀𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞, 𝐥𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲. ‘Long-only’ crypto funds try to outperform the outright token purchase through active trading. Market neutral’ strategies try to implement strategies known from traditional financial markets (i.e. arbitrage, carry trades, etc.) as well as crypto-unique strategies (i.e. DeFi lending, staking) to generate ideally ‘risk-free’ returns. 𝐃𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐨𝐤𝐞𝐧𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐚 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝, 𝐚𝐢𝐦 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐬. While also betting on the crypto theme as a whole, they try to make differentiated bets that might generate excess benefits over larger tokens (i.e. a certain DeFi project) or that might benefit regardless of price movements in the crypto markets (i.e. infrastructure or analytics providers). 

When Governments and Corporates Hoard Bitcoin: What It Means for Investors Bitcoin has moved from the fringes to the front pages. What was once dismissed as a fad is now sitting on the balance sheets of governments and major corporations. This isn’t hype. It’s strategy. And it matters to you as an investor. The Sovereign Bitcoin Story Today, governments collectively hold between 300,000 and 500,000 BTC - around 2–2.5% of the total supply. United States: ~198,000 BTC (≈ $23.5B), stored in a newly formed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. China: ~190,000 BTC, mostly seized from scams like PlusToken. UK: ~61,000 BTC, largely law enforcement seizures. Ukraine: ~46,000 BTC, mostly wartime crypto donations. Bhutan: ~11,000 BTC, mined using hydro power. El Salvador: ~6,000 BTC, the first nation to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. Governments are no longer observers. They’re participants. The Corporate Side of the Story It isn’t just governments. Corporates now hold nearly 1 million BTC, adding further pressure to supply. This dual dynamic - sovereign + corporate - has locked away nearly 1.5 million BTC, creating structural scarcity in the market. Why It Matters to Investors Scarcity Intensifies: Less supply means higher long-term pressure on price. Legitimacy Boost: Bitcoin moves from fringe to accepted reserve asset. Policy Drivers: A government buy/sell decision can move markets overnight. Bitcoin vs Gold: The digital contender for a centuries-old inflation hedge. But Risks Remain Let’s be blunt. Bitcoin isn’t a one-way bet. Volatility: It can swing 30% in a month. Without stop-loss discipline, your portfolio can implode. FOMO: Chasing headlines is the quickest way to lose money. Strategy beats hype. Regulatory risk: Governments may buy, but they may also ban, tax, or regulate. Could go to zero: Unlikely, but possible. Never invest money you can’t afford to lose. Blueprint for Sensible Exposure Keep it small: 1–3% allocation at most. Manage risk: Use volatility-based stops and position sizing. Don’t cap winners too early: Let profits run with trailing stops. Be strategic, not emotional: Avoid TikTok tips and Twitter hype. Watch policy: Sovereign and corporate moves are market signals. Bitcoin is no longer just for retail traders. With governments and corporates now hoarding over 1.5 million BTC, scarcity and legitimacy are hard to ignore. But remember: investing isn’t about gambling. It’s about discipline, strategy, and building reliable wealth. Small, sensible, and strategic exposure may make sense. Blind bets will not. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and may not be suitable for all investors.

It’s an honor to announce that our new research paper has been published on SSRN: Catching Crypto Trend: A Tactical Approach for Bitcoin and Altcoins With the crypto market now worth over $3 trillion, more and more investors are adding digital assets to their portfolios. But holding crypto passively can lead to big losses during downturns. That’s why it’s important to use a tactical approach to follow the trends while managing risk effectively. Together with my co-authors, Alberto Pagani and Prof. Andrea Barbon (an expert in blockchain and DeFi), we tested a trend-following portfolio diversified across trend speeds and crypto markets. Using CoinMarketCap data, we backtested the strategy on all cryptocurrencies ever traded since 2015. The historical results are very attractive, with risk-adjusted returns more than twice as high as simply holding Bitcoin. The paper also includes a helpful section on the pros and cons of using centralized vs. decentralized exchanges when trading digital assets. All rules and results are explained in the paper. 📄 To read the paper → bit.ly/CryptoTrendsPaper 🎧 To listen to the paper → bit.ly/CryptoTrendsAudio 🎧 To listen on Spotify → spoti.fi/428HSKQ If you have any questions, feel free to contact me at carlo@concretumgroup.com A special thanks to Mohamed S. Gabriel, Leonardo Falconi and the other trend-following experts who reviewed the work and provided valuable feedback.

The case for a 2% #bitcoin allocation into multi-assets portfolios by Blackrock: "So how can investors think about a bitcoin allocation? We take a risk budgeting approach: sizing the allocation based on how much it would contribute to total portfolio risk – measured by its long-run volatility and correlation to other assets (...). But from a portfolio construction perspective, it has some similarities with the “magnificent 7” group of mostly mega-cap tech stocks. Their market value – averaging $2.5 trillion in December 2024 – is similar to bitcoin’s (...) In a traditional portfolio with a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, those seven stocks – if held at their current weights in the MSCI World – each account for 4% of the overall portfolio risk on average. That’s about the same share a 1-2% exposure to bitcoin would represent: Even though bitcoin’s correlation to other assets is relatively low, it’s more volatile, making its effect on total risk contribution similar overall. A bitcoin allocation would have the advantage of providing a diverse source of risk, while an overweight to the magnificent 7 would add to existing risk and to portfolio concentration. Why not more than 2%? A larger bitcoin allocation means its share of overall portfolio risk rises sharply. This effect is small when the allocation is small, but above 2% bitcoin’s share of total portfolio risk becomes outsized compared with the average magnificent 7 stock (...) . In an extreme case, should there no longer be any prospect of broad bitcoin adoption, the loss could be the entire 1-2% allocation. We think this is much less likely to happen to a magnificent 7 stock given these companies generate major cash flow and have tangible underlying assets. The upshot? By allocating no more than 2% to bitcoin, investors would: 1) introduce a very different source of return and risk; and 2) manage risk exposure to bitcoin".

This year, mainstream corporate finance has become embroiled in a previously unthinkable debate: how much Bitcoin belongs on your balance sheet? Between ignoring Bitcoin and going all‑in lies the start of a thoughtful Bitcoin treasury strategy. Beyond “Digital Gold” Before sizing a position, corporate treasurers should define the asset’s job—operating liquidity, capital preservation, hedging, diversification, or collateral and financing—then weigh it against alternatives. Bitcoin has been among the best‑performing assets of the past 5 years. Still, past performance does not guarantee future performance, and during the same period Bitcoin also suffered a ~78% drawdown. Such drops aren’t unheard of in alternative “safe havens” assets: from its 1980 peak, gold declined ~70% and didn’t reclaim that nominal level for ~3 decades. Gold and Bitcoin are both scarce assets whose value rests on social consensus. Gold’s non-monetary uses provide a floor price, not the level. But that’s also where the similarities between Bitcoin and gold end. Unlike gold Bitcoin has behaved like a liquidity‑sensitive, high‑beta risk asset. That argues against the simple “digital gold” or “inflation hedge” labels some of its proponents blindly believe in, and calls for a more nuanced explanation. Money as Software. Software to Move Money For corporate balance-sheet decisions, think asset plus network: you hold bitcoin on the balance sheet, but the network determines its long-run economics. Bitcoin is a technology stack for creating scarce digital money—and for its issuance, accounting, and movement. Over time, value comes from the interaction between the asset and the network. Today that value shows up mainly as “digital gold”, but the open question is what happens if the rails begin to move value at scale. With Bitcoin ~$2.3T, and the monetary use of gold at $7–8T, we are less than 1/3 of the way toward gold parity. But of course, Bitoin might have broader appeal than gold. In a major debt crisis it could be easier to access, and it already serves as insurance against bad central-bank policy. Then there’s the underlying network. For the first time in history, value can flow and settle globally on infrastructure no one controls. ➡️ Because Bitcoin offers a distinct risk profile it can belong as a small allocation (1–3%) in a diversified treasury. How should CEOs and CFOs update exposure? 1️⃣ Track Bitcoin’s share of store-of-value demand relative to monetary gold and to high-quality sovereign debt. 2️⃣ Look for evidence that the Bitcoin network is moving payments at scale. The bull case is money‑as‑software. If that happens, it’s a many‑multiples story. The bear case is also software: a better stack ships, and the network effects run backward. CFOs don’t have to pick a side, they have to pick an allocation. If Bitcoin becomes the operating system for money, you own enough to matter. If it doesn’t, you’re still solvent—which is, after all, the job.

Markets are complex systems, shaped by infinite factors, events, and decisions. But investing doesn’t have to be. At the core, prices either go up or down. And two strategies help you position around that: → Going long → Going short Going long means you believe the asset will rise. You buy it, hold it, and plan to sell at a higher price. For example: You buy Bitcoin at $50K. It goes to $70K. You sell. Profit. Simple, right? Going short is the opposite. You borrow the asset and sell it at today’s price, expecting it to drop. Let’s say Bitcoin is at $100K. You short it. It drops to $80K. You buy it back, return the BTC, and you just made $20K. Both strategies have risks and rewards. Long positions are more common, they align with long-term belief in growth. Shorts are riskier, especially when markets trend up over time. Some traders hedge. They go long with one part of their capital, short with another, just in case. It’s about strategy and risk management. If you want to understand how leverage fits into all this, check out the other Folks Academy videos I’ve made last week. Mastering the basics like this is how you start to make smarter moves in crypto and beyond.

If you’ve been watching Bitcoin lately, you see the price dips 5%, and the panic-selling headlines start rolling in. The price jumps 5%, and everyone starts calling for a new all-time high by Friday. If you trade the noise, you’re playing a game designed to make you lose. So Zoom Out. When I’m making a decision to buy, hold, or rebalance my #Bitcoin position, I don’t look at today. I look at the Four-Year Cycle. When you zoom out to the weekly or monthly candles, the "volatility" everyone is screaming about starts to look like a series of higher lows. You begin to see the heartbeat of the #cryptocurrency network rather than the erratic movement of the market. If you need this money in six months, Bitcoin is a gamble. If you have a five-year horizon, it’s a generational asset. Most people talking about $1M Bitcoin tomorrow are looking for engagement. So focus on the fundamentals - ● adoption rates ● institutional inflow ● halving cycles If a 10% drop makes you want to sell, your position size is too big. Scale back until you can sleep at night. The best decisions I’ve ever made in crypto didn’t happen while I was staring at a screen. They happened when I stepped back, looked at the long-term trend, and ignored the day to day actions. Don’t let a 24-hour candle dictate your 10-year wealth strategy. Just Zoom out and then decide. Follow me for more tips on #cryptocurrencies. 🤑

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a simple momentum tool that measures whether a asset (stock or bitcoin in this review) has been rising or falling too fast on a scale of 0 to 100. Generally above 70 means it's overbought (might be due for a pullback) and below 30 means it's oversold (might be due for a bounce). Daily RSI for bitcoin today is: 65 Weekly RSI for bitcoin today is: 50 I ran the full analysis across 14 years of data. Buying at RSI 30 (oversold) delivered a median 1-year return of +190% with a 90% win rate. Buying at RSI 50 (neutral) delivered +75% with a 72% win rate. Even buying at RSI 70, the level most traders treat as a sell signal, delivered +28% over the following year. Extend the holding period to two years and the returns were +350%, +145%, and +55% respectively. The weekly RSI sharpened the signal even further. Weekly RSI ≤30, which has only triggered about 25 times in Bitcoin's entire history, produced a +280% median 1-year return with a 96% win rate. Now here's the part most people get wrong. I backtested a strategy that bought every RSI 30 and sold every RSI 70. A simple strategy that is all about "buying low, and selling high" should work better right? It returned 4,200x since 2011. Buy and hold over the same period returned 28,000x. Selling "overbought" Bitcoin means stepping out right before the parabolic move. The RSI trading strategy spent roughly 65% of its time sitting in cash, missing the bulk of every major rally. The data killed the idea that RSI is a trading tool for Bitcoin. Not to mention paying taxes along the way! What RSI actually is, for a serious long-term allocator, is an accumulation framework. Base allocation stays constant. When RSI drops below 30, you add aggressively. When it sits at 50, you maintain your normal pace. When it's running above 70, you keep buying but you don't chase with outsized positions. You modulate the intensity based on where the signal is. Use tools like RSI to systematize buying conviction, buy heavier when fear is highest and staying disciplined when euphoria made it tempting to overextend.