Disaster Recovery Funding

It has been more than four years since Russia’s invasion of #Ukraine. Since day one, The World Bank Group, have stood alongside Ukraine, supporting its people, its institutions, and its private sector through one of the most challenging periods in its history. Over this time, IFC - International Finance Corporation has delivered $2.8 billion in financing, including more than $1 billion mobilized, helping businesses remain operational, sustain jobs, and keep critical sectors functioning. From trade finance enabling essential imports and exports, to investments in agribusiness, technology, and SMEs, and support for energy efficiency, housing, and financial infrastructure our focus has been clear: preserving the foundations of Ukraine’s economy today while preparing for reconstruction tomorrow. Last week I was in Ukraine, alongside Anna Bjerde, presenting the new estimations of the Reconstruction needs: $588 billion. Ukraine’s needs are roughly three times its GDP. The priority now is to turn these needs into a bankable pipeline that private capital can help finance. Public budgets alone cannot close this gap. Three key sectors hold significant private potential, together representing nearly 50% of #RDNA5 the latest assessment of Ukraine’s damage, recovery, and reconstruction needs: 🔋 Energy With reforms, private participation could rise from 6% to 75%. Advancing EU market integration, restoring payment discipline, enabling cost recovery, and finalizing renewable auction frameworks will be essential to unlock investment. 🏘 Housing Reforms could allow the private sector to cover 61% of needs. Scaling housing requires long-term finance — modern mortgage markets, regulated developer finance, formal rental systems, and innovative PPP models. 🚆 Transport While complex, private participation can reach 8% significant given this is the largest sector. EU-aligned tolling, rail tariff reform, and advancing port and airport concessions are key steps. Across sectors, fundamentals matter: open markets for private sector competion, rule of law, enforceable contracts, operational PPP frameworks, and financial sector modernization. These priorities shaped our discussions this week with Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, Minister of Finance Sergii Marchenko, Minister of Economy Oleksii Sobolev, CFA Deputy Prime Minister for Restoration @Oleksii Kuleba, and private sector leaders. The alignment is clear: reforms and private investment must move in parallel to accelerate recovery and create jobs. Ukraine’s recovery is not only about rebuilding what was lost it is about building a stronger, more competitive, and investment-ready economy for the future. We are ready and looking forward to continue helping Ukraine on this critical effort. Read the RDNA5 report here:https://lnkd.in/gahajNg4 Ines Rocha, Lisa Kaestner, Alejandro Alvarez de la Campa, Yulia Mironova, IFC Europe

Landscape Recovery remains one of the most ambitious nature programmes the UK has ever attempted, and the Farmers Weekly piece this week shows why it matters so much. The 12-month termination clause has understandably unsettled farmers, land managers and private investors. Long-term restoration needs long-term confidence. You can’t ask people to commit for 20–30 years with a one-year escape hatch. But we should also recognise the progress. Landscape Recovery has survived a change of government, a change of ministerial team, and now carries a £500m public funding allocation. On the ground, projects like Evenlode demonstrate the scale of what could be unlocked. As Timothy Coates, director of the Evenlode Landscape Recovery project, put it: “For every £1 of investment the government makes today, there is already £2 of private investment ready to deploy. This will enable nature-market transactions worth more than £200m and deliver public goods such as flood risk reduction worth nearly £1bn over the project lifetime.” These are early project estimates, but they show what’s possible when public policy gives private capital the confidence to invest. And the design challenge here is solvable. A 20–30-year programme needs 20–30 years of confidence. Fix that, and Landscape Recovery becomes one of the most investible, place-based resilience strategies in the UK, supporting farmers, reducing flood and drought risk, and building economic stability from the catchment upwards. There’s also a wider economic opportunity. Landscape Recovery is exactly the kind of long-term, UK-based infrastructure the Mansion House Compact was designed to unlock. With the right contractual foundation, it could become a natural home for pension capital seeking long-dated, potentially inflation-linked returns delivering resilience, productivity and growth across rural Britain. Suppose government, farmers, and private capital come together now to strengthen the framework. In that case, Landscape Recovery can become the backbone of Britain’s rural economy and a model for funding Nature at scale. And if we get this right, the UK can become the fastest Nature-recovering country in the world, inspiring others to do the same and helping create a world worth living in. https://lnkd.in/enyk-mZw #LandscapeRecovery #NaturalCapital #MansionHouseCompact #Farming #Resilience #InvestInNature #RuralEconomy #ClimateAdaptation #NatureMarkets #WaterSecurity #TNFD

I’ve been watching with interest the new agreement between KSrelief and Reef Saudi, and it strikes me as a meaningful turning point. Too often, agricultural support in fragile settings is framed as #aid. This move shows how we can shift toward #capability, #ownership, and #growth. At its core, this partnership reflects the evolution from traditional collaboration to a Public Private Philanthropy Partnership #PPPP model that aligns national programs, private innovation, and humanitarian institutions around shared impact. A few things stand out: - Integration of local #techtransfer and #capacitybuilding, not just giving seeds but sharing tools and skills. - The launch of Bathraa, aiming to transform vulnerable communities from dependents to producers. - Embedding #monitoring and #evaluation with joint planning, signaling that impact will be tracked, not promised. This type of #ecosystem creates fertile ground for entities like Kearney PERLab (Product Excellence Renewal Lab) , where product innovation and localization can turn craftsmanship into scalable industry. When local producers gain visibility, competitiveness, and access to digital tools, sustainability becomes more than a vision, it becomes an exportable capability. If done well, this could become a blueprint for how humanitarian work evolves into lasting economic resilience, driven not by charity but by collaboration and innovation. https://lnkd.in/dS7YubPS #humanitariansupport #agriculture #ruraldevelopment #innovationforgood #socialimpact #PPPP #sustainability #CenterForSustainableFuture Bharat Kapoor Elie El Khoury Debashish Mukherjee Ahmad El-Husseini Dr Darren Perrin Dragos Fundulea Valentin Lavaill

Unlock the Power of Public-Private Partnership. Tired of chasing shadows in financial crime investigations? There's a better way. The fight against financial crime can be a complex game of cat and mouse, but effective collaboration is key to winning. New technologies are reshaping financial crime, and money launderers and terrorist financiers are quick to adapt. Staying ahead requires a proactive, multi-layered approach. Two key resources provide vital strategies: - The UN Security Council’s "Algeria Guiding Principles" – offering guidance on countering terrorist misuse of new and emerging financial technologies (or FinTech). - The Europol Financial Intelligence Public Private Partnership (EFIPPP) Practical Guide – focusing on operational cooperation between investigative authorities and financial institutions. Some key insights that can help us enhance our strategies and collaboration efforts, both within the EU and globally: 1. Comprehensive risk assessment The Algeria Guiding Principles stress the importance of conducting thorough, evidence-based national risk assessments. This involves understanding the risks associated with both traditional and emerging fundraising methods, such as crowdfunding and social media, which can be exploited for terrorist financing. 2. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) The EFIPPP Practical Guide highlights the critical role of operational cooperation between investigative authorities and financial institutions. By sharing case-specific data, we can significantly enhance our ability to detect and investigate financial crimes. This collaboration is essential for improving asset recovery and advancing criminal investigations. 3. Regulatory frameworks The new EU AML/CFT legal framework introduces mechanisms for cross-border partnerships and information sharing. This is a vital step towards fostering cooperation between authorities and financial institutions, enabling us to better detect illicit financial flows. 4. Proactive engagement Financial institutions should not only respond to requests from authorities but also take the initiative to share insights that could lead to new investigative leads. This collaborative approach can enhance our collective response to financial crime. 5. Balancing innovation and security As we embrace new technologies, ensure our measures do not hinder legitimate activities. The guiding principles advocate for a balanced approach that respects human rights while effectively countering financial crime. The fight against financial crime is a shared responsibility that requires innovative thinking and collaborative efforts. As we navigate this landscape, how can we further enhance our cooperation and ensure that our strategies are both effective and compliant with international standards? __ ✍️ Thoughts? What strategies have you found effective in fostering collaboration between FIs and investigative authorities? 📥 Save for later ♻️ Reshare if this was helpful

It is of no surprise that since I started my position as Cybercrime Director at INTERPOL, I get asked every week what law enforcement needs to combat cybercrime more effectively. While money and access to tools are accurate answers, I would argue that having the right tag team partners to fight alongside us is critical, too. My Cyber Strategy and Capabilities Development team diligently works to onboard new private sector partners to provide INTERPOL and its 196 member countries the ability to leverage specialized expertise that exists outside of typical law enforcement channels. What makes these partnerships essential? ▪️ They bridge jurisdictional gaps that criminals exploit ▪️ They combine technical and legal expertise ▪️ They enable rapid, coordinated responses to emerging cyber threats These collaborations take many forms: information sharing agreements, expert secondments, intelligence analysis support, and specialized training. Each partnership strengthens our global response capability. Operations Serengeti and Grandoreiro were successful, in large part, because of our private sector partners. My team and I recently had the opportunity to discuss these successes and much more. To read further, check out: ➡️ https://lnkd.in/eR6WGPCn ➡️ https://lnkd.in/e9eapWKq #INTERPOL #Cybercrime #PublicPrivatePartnership #Teamwork

What to ask before investing in a disaster-prone market Disaster risk isn’t just an insurance problem, it’s a capital risk. Whether it’s hurricanes, fires, or floods, here are the questions investors should be asking before wiring capital into high-risk areas: 1. What’s the insurance coverage and what’s not covered? → Are you relying on private insurance or a state-backed pool? → Is the deductible realistic? Has the operator budgeted for rate hikes? 2. Has the operator modeled a total loss scenario? → If a fire or flood wiped out the asset tomorrow, what’s the recovery plan? 3. Is the property up to modern code? → Rebuilds are expensive. Is the property positioned to avoid full retrofits? 4. What’s the evacuation or mitigation plan? → Especially for multifamily: Does the team know how to respond when disaster hits? 5. What infrastructure supports the area? → Can utilities, roads, and services handle disruption—or are you isolated? 6. What’s the true replacement cost? → The value of land post-disaster might not justify rebuilding. Know the math. 7. Is the market still investable or is it nearing uninsurable? → Some zip codes are becoming no-go zones. Be honest about the trajectory. This isn’t just about risk, it’s about responsibility. If you’re going to deploy capital, make sure the operator has asked and answered these questions. What’s one risk you think investors are still underestimating in today’s market?

Ukraine will require $524 billion for recovery and reconstruction over the next 10 years, a sum equivalent to approximately 2.8 times its projected 2024 nominal GDP. This figure represents a portion of the comprehensive analysis contained within the #RDNA4 report, the findings of which were presented today alongside colleagues from the government. The highest recovery needs are in: 🏡 Housing – nearly $84 billion; 🚆 Transport – nearly $78 billion; ⚡️ Energy and extractive industries – nearly $68 billion; 🏭 Industry – over $64 billion; 🌾 Agriculture – over $55 billion. This year, thanks to donor support, we have already allocated $7.37 billion to cover critical recovery needs in sectors such as housing, education, healthcare, social protection, energy, transport, water supply, demining, and civil protection. Nevertheless, the total financing shortfall for recovery in 2025 is $9.96 billion. I believe that the private sector can play a significant role in bridging this gap. The assessment has a particular focus on attracting investment in public projects. Last year, we began implementing a public financial management reform. We have gathered 787 projects totalling $61.67 billion in the Single Project Pipeline. Unfortunately, the state budget will only be able to cover 9.1% of these projects next year. That is why attracting private investment in these initiatives is critical for us, for example, through public-private partnership mechanisms, international guarantees, investment insurance and the creation of special funds for reconstruction. For our part, we offer a whole range of tools: tax and customs benefits, capital investment compensation programs, grants, guarantees and technical assistance from the European Commission under the Ukraine Facility. And war risk insurance infrastructure from the EBRD, U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, MIGA, and international export credit agencies. The private sector has demonstrated its potential to be a key engine for recovery. Grateful to all those businesses that are already investing in the recovery of Ukraine. We understand that the issue of security guarantees remains an important one for all of us. This is the task that Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine is currently actively working on. I believe that together with foreign partners we will be able to create effective security guarantee mechanisms for business to make Ukraine an attractive and reliable place for investment.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗚𝗙𝗦 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗯𝗶𝗴— for the first time, we now have 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 𝘤𝘭𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘴𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘴 tailored for 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿-𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸. 🔸 This isn't about 2050. It's the next five years, i.e. 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱–𝟮𝟬𝟯𝟬. 🔸 This isn't abstract. It's 𝗚𝗗𝗣 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀, 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘁 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸, 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘂𝗻𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁. 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁-𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀: 1.  A smooth transition ("Highway to Paris") 2.  A delayed, abrupt policy shift ("Sudden Wake-Up Call") 3.  Physical risk disasters without transition ("Disasters & Policy Stagnation") 4.  A fragmented world with climate chaos and policy misalignment ("Diverging Realities") These scenarios are a wake-up call for taking short-term climate risks seriously. ➤ Delaying climate action could increase global 𝗚𝗗𝗣 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗯𝘆 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝟯𝘅, and unemployment spikes by 1.3 percentage points (Sudden Wake-Up Call vs Highway to Paris). ➤ Climate disasters aren’t just regional anymore. Floods, fires and droughts in Asia or Africa can cut European 𝗚𝗗𝗣 𝗯𝘆 𝟭.𝟳%, driven by supply chain exposure. ➤ Credit risk spreads explode in carbon-intensive sectors. In some cases, default probabilities jump by 20–30 percentage points, stressing banks and insurers alike. ➤ Green sectors could lose out if the transition is abrupt, fragmented, or disrupted by physical shocks. 𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗮 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲-𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿 ➤ For the first time, compound hazards—droughts, floods, wildfires—are modelled together, showing how climate risk can become systemic through trade, finance, and supply chains. ➤ Monetary policy is now integrated, so climate shocks affect interest rate paths, inflation dynamics, and macroeconomic volatility. ➤ Financial contagion is now factored in. Using advanced modelling, the framework maps how climate-related losses feed into default risk, cost of capital, and sectoral investment flows. ➤ Sector-by-sector and region-by-region outcomes now include asset-level exposure, probability of default, and sovereign bond repricing, offering tools fit for risk management. 𝗠𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲 This release is a step-change in how we understand and model climate risk. These scenarios are critical because they model economic and financial impacts on business over the next five years. A timeline relevant for senior management, boards and shareholders. Because these scenarios capture dynamic feedback loops, sector-specific capital costs, and second-round effects that ripple through the financial system, the risk science is taken to a whole new level. These real-world complexities have been missing from science to date, which is why these scenarios are so critical. #NGFS #NetZero #ClimateRisk _____________ For updates, follow me on LinkedIn: Scott Kelly

Insurance is the canary in the coal mine | Public Private Partnerships offer a path to greater societal resilience The European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) published a very important discussion paper last month which persuasively argues for the establishment of an EU public-private reinsurance scheme and an EU fund for public disaster financing. These innovations would incentivise households, businesses, and governments to deploy (stronger) risk management practices and enhance their financial resilience in the face of growing climate related risks. Why has the ECB and EIOPA invested so much time and energy into researching this space and making these proposals? 1. Insurance protection gaps are growing: Natural catastrophes caused around €900 billion in direct economic losses within the EU between 1981 and 2023, with 20% of these losses occurring in 2021-23. However, only about 25% of these losses were insured and this share is declining as illustrated below. Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of natural catastrophes, meaning that losses will grow. In response, (re)insurers will increase premiums to pay claims, creating affordability challenges. (Re)insurers companies will also stop offering insurance in high-risk areas, leaving households and businesses unprotected. 2. Growing protection gaps will cause greater financial instability: This work builds on a 2023 Paper in which the ECB and EIOPA provided evidence that the lack of insurance can slow down economic recovery following disasters, increase banks’ exposures to credit risk, and weaken the fiscal position of governments when they step in to cover uninsured losses. We know that governments across Europe are already operating with incredibly stretched budgets, so where is this money going to come from? The ECB and EIOPA believe that public-private partnerships (PPPs) are a crucial part of the solution. 3. The Paper’s recommendations are based on an examination of 12 PPPs: These proposals are informed by an examination of 12 global PPPs, eight of which are in Europe. These schemes improve insurance coverage and reduce the protection gap. The average share of insured losses in European countries with a national PPP is 47%, while it is 18% in countries without a national scheme. Importantly, these schemes frequently include risk mitigation measures such as incentives for homes in flood-prone areas to be flood-proofed. 4. The business case for national PPPs: While the Paper promotes an EU-wide PPP, it implicitly makes the case for national PPPs and explicitly states that an EU-wide scheme would supplement national schemes. Further, national schemes provide greater societal resilience and do not crowd out the private sector. Rather, they are complementary, covering risks that (re)insurers would not underwrite alone. #sustainability #sustainabledevelopmentgoals #sdg13 #insurance

Are PPP Projects Truly Affordable for Governments? A Fiscal Perspective Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs) are often promoted as a way to accelerate infrastructure delivery without immediate pressure on public budgets. But the real question is: what are the long-term fiscal implications once these commitments are fully accounted for? A proper fiscal assessment is essential before approving any PPP project to ensure it is not only viable, but also sustainable for public finances. 1. Direct Fiscal Commitments These are the known and contractual obligations, including: Availability payments Capital contributions or subsidies (e.g., VGF) Revenue guarantees Land acquisition costs Tax incentives These must be fully integrated into budget planning from the outset. 2. Contingent Liabilities These are potential future exposures that may arise under certain conditions: Demand or revenue shortfalls Exchange rate and inflation risks Termination payments Government debt guarantees Force majeure events While uncertain, their fiscal impact can be significant and long-lasting. 3. Affordability Check The key issue is whether commitments fit within: Annual budget ceilings Medium-term fiscal frameworks Debt sustainability limits Sector investment priorities Without this, PPPs can quietly create future fiscal pressure. 4. Risk Allocation & Value for Money Effective PPPs allocate risks to the party best able to manage them. Poor allocation often results in higher government exposure and reduced value for money compared to traditional procurement. 5. Transparency & Monitoring All fiscal obligations should be: Clearly disclosed in financial reporting Regularly monitored throughout the concession period Integrated into fiscal risk management systems So, are PPPs always “off-balance sheet” savings—or future liabilities in disguise? The answer depends on how well fiscal risks are identified, quantified, and managed before financial close. A strong role from Ministries of Finance and PPP units is critical to ensure that only truly affordable and sustainable projects move forward. #PPP #PublicPrivatePartnership #InfrastructureFinance #FiscalRisk #ProjectFinance #GovernmentFinance #ValueForMoney #RiskManagement #FiscalSustainability #InfrastructureDevelopment